USA Presidential Election 2024 Odds and Bookmaker Predictions

As soon as Joe Biden entered The White House in January 2001 markets opened on who would win the Presidency in 2024. Gamblers and bookmakers have been trying to pick the outcome ever since.

In this article we will examine and update the odds changes during the run up to election day on November 5th 2024.

10th September 2024

With less than 2 months until election day on the 7th November Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are set to have their first televised debate tonight.

Star Sports have priced the winner of the debate up with Harris 1/3 favourite and Trump at 2/1.

In the main market on who will win the election Trump is favourite at 1.93 and Harris is 2.16. It will be interesting to see if the debate has any effect on the odds. 

The result of the election will come down to who wins the swing states. Betfair now have markets up on who will win every state.

The key swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The table below shows the Betfair exchange back price available for each party to win each state (Odds correct 10th September 2024)

If we assume that the Republicans and Democrats win all the states they are sub 1.9 to win the election comes down to Nevada and Pennsylvania. In reality the 19 Electoral College votes in the Pennsylvania look to be the current key to this tight race.

But a lot can change in the next 2 months.

8th August 2024

In the last two weeks there has been a big turn around in the prices for 2024 Presidential Election.

As we enter the second week of August Trump and Harris are neck and neck on Betfair to be the next President. They are both available at 2.06.

In the last two weeks all the main Democrats have backed Harris to take over from Biden as their nominee. She is now 1.01 to be the Democratic Nominee from 1.17 on 21th July.

21st July 2024

President Biden has withdrawn from the 2024 Presidential race. He has endorsed Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Nominee. On the 21st July Harris is 1.17 to become the Democratic Nominee on the Betfair Exchange.

For the Presidency Harris is now available at 3.4 to back on Betfair (17.0 on 15th July). Trump has drifted to 1.62 from a low of 1.41 just after the assassination attempt last week.

J.D. Vance was made the Republican Nominee for Vice President last week during the RNC.

15th July 2024

Donald Trump is due to announce his pick for the Republican Vice President Nominee today. J.D. Vance is favourite on Betfair at 1.61. Doug Burgum is available to back at 6.2 and Glenn Youngkin is third favourite at 9.0.

Other contenders are Marco Rubio (23.0), Ben Carson (28.0) and Vivek Ramaswamy (30.0).

For the Presidency itself Trump is 1.41 to win on the Betfair Exchange (1.68 on 8th July). This follows the assassination attempt on Donald Trump on 13th July and the dropping of charges on a documents case on the 15th July. Biden is currently 6.2 (10.0 on 12th July) and Harris is out 17.0 (5.7 on 12th July). 

12th July 2024

Kamala Harris has overtaken Joe Biden as favourite to become the Democratic Nominee.

On the final day of Nato Summit in Washington on July 11th the media picked up on President Biden introducing President Zelenskiy as 'President Putin' . Biden also referred to Vice-President Harris as 'Vice-President Trump' in a press conference yesterday afternoon.

On 12th July Harris is 2.36 to be the Democratic Nominee on the Betfair Exchange. Biden is available at 2.56. Harris traded as low as 1.99 during the press conference.

For the Presidential Election Trump remains favourite available at 1.65. Harris is priced at 5.7 and Biden is available at 10.0. 

8th July 2024

In the last 5 days since July 3rd both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have shortened on the Betfair Exchange to be the Democratic Nominee. Biden is currently 2.32 (from 2.68 on 3rd July) and Harris is available to back at 2.6 (3.15 on 3rd of July). Newsom, Obama, Whitmer and Clinton have all drifted in the betting.

For the Presidency itself Harris is now shorter than Biden on the Betfair Exchange. This is an anomaly given than Biden is shorter on the nominee market. Donald Trump remains the odds on favourite. He has shortened slightly to 1.68 having been 1.71 on the Betfair Exchange 5 days ago on 3rd July.

3rd July 2024

The fall out from the first Presidential debate continues into July. Joe Biden is now out to 2.68 to be the Democratic Nominee.

Kamala Harris is into 3.15 from 15.5 on the 28th June to take over. 

Trump remains the same price as he was week ago at 1.71 to be the next President. Harris is now a shorter price than Biden to win the Presidency at 8.2. Biden is available at 8.8.

28th June 2024

The first Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden has resulted in a dramatic change in the odds.

As June comes to an end Trump is 1.71 (from 1.81 on 14th June) to win the USA Presidential Election 2024 on the Betfair Exchange. Biden is out to 5.2 (from 2.96). Gavin Newsom, a possible replacement for Biden, is into 8.8 (from 44.0).

On the Democratic nominee market Biden is now 1.73 (from 1.15 on 1st June). Gavin Newson is into 5.0 (from 32.0 on 1st June). 

14th June 2024

Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, was found guilty of lying about drug use when buying a gun on the 11th June. Following this news Joe Biden drifted out to 2.96 (from 2.56 on 1st June) to win the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Donald Trump's odds to be the next US President have contracted over the last several days to 1.81 on Betfair (1.99 on 1st June). This is the lowest odds Trump has been to win the race to the White House. 

The odds for Michelle Obama, Gavin Newson and Kamala Harris remain unchanged.

1st June 2024 :The story so far

The latest national polls collated on  fivethirtyeight.com have been relatively steady for the last 3 months. 

Trump ended May on 41.1%, Biden 39.7 and Kennedy on 9.8%, giving Trump a 1.3% lead over Biden.

Will Donald Trump regain the White House?

Trump starts June priced at 1.07 with the Betfair Exchange to be the Republican Nominee. He was as big as 11.0 back in 2001 when it was unclear if he would run for President again after not returning to The White House after the 2000 election.

His biggest Republican rival early in the campaign was the Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, who traded as low as 1.84. Nikki Haley was the last candidate to suspend her campaign leading to Trump officially became the party's presumptive presidential nominee.

Trump is available at 1.99 on Betfair to win the 2024 Presidential Election. His price has fluctuated wildly over the last 3 years from a high of 21.0 to a low of 1.84. In the last week after the verdict of the Stormy Daniels court case his odds went from 1.9 to 2.4 back to 1.99.

With the bookmakers Trump is 1.91 with Unibet, BetMGM, Star Sports and AK Bets.

What are Joe Biden's chances of winning a second term?

Biden is 1.15 on Betfair to be the Democratic Nominee. Michelle Obama is 20.0 and California Governor, Gavin Newsom, is 32.0. With the bookmakers Biden is 1.1 with Skybet, Coral, Star Sports and Ladbrokes to be the candidate.

At the start of his Presidency it was unclear is Biden would stand for a second term. He was as big as 4.9 to be the Democratic Nominee. He announced he was running again on 25th April 2023. 

Going into June, Biden is currently 2.56 to win a second term on Betfair. With the bookmakers he is 2.5 with Coral, Unibet and BetMGM.

Could there be a different President?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr is polling nationally at around 10% and is 42.0 on Betfair to win. 

If Biden or Trump drop out of the race the Democrats potentially have Michelle Obama (34.0 with Betfair and 26.0 with AK bets and Star Sports), Gavin Newsom (70.0 with Betfair and 51.0 with Coral and Unibet) and current Vice-President, Kamala Harris, at 100.0 with Betfair. She is generally available at 67.0 with the bookmakers.

Nikki Haley is 100.0 on Betfair for the Republicans. 

Which party is predicted to win?

On Betfair, the Republicans are 1.9 and the Democrats are 2.2 to win the Presidency. Any other party is 38.0. The bookmakers generally have the Republicans at 1.8. Star Sports are an outlier with the Democrats at 2.2.

For the popular vote the Democrat candidates are favourite with Biden at 1.44 on Betfair and Trump at 4.3. Winning the Presidency is about campaigning to win the most Electoral College votes and not the popular votes. 

That concludes the roundup of the odds at the start of the summer. It is going to be an interesting 5 months in the run up to polling day on 5th November 2024.