From across the pond, Johnny Wright looks ahead to the mouth-watering era-defining fight between two of the sports most decorated operators. 

____________________

Well, another summer has flown by and it is time for the super event that most boxing fans have been arguing back and forth online about for months now. And, of course I am referring to the Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford fight. I'm going to polish off the crystal ball now, so let's all have some fun and see what the #CrystalBallBoxing reflection foresees about this very intriguing boxing match between two of today's top pound for pound fighters.

CANELO ALVAREZ

There is very little need for me to have to tell any true boxing fan about the positives that Canelo Alvarez possesses in the boxing ring. He has solid power, a granite chin, is a future Hall of Famer and has been professionally fighting for almost 20 years. He has fought the best boxers around for about 10 of those years in his gradual climb to become boxing's number 1 box office star.

Canelo has fought bigger men, smaller men, boxers, punchers, southpaws and has done all this with success in a number of different weight classes too. He has also accumulated about as much experience as a fighter can over those years and is used to the " Big Stage" too. Canelo has proven he can rise to the occasion under those circumstances repeatedly, which is of major importance in fights as big as this one will be.

Canelo has never been knocked down as a professional either and he has faced some very hard punchers throughout his career, so his chin is possibly his greatest asset. He has proven his power at various times throughout his career though I personally feel his power is quite overrated. But he DOES have above average power and his defense is solid too. He has definitely earned his reputation as one of boxing's top pound for pound fighters for the better part of the last decade.

Canelo has also always fought at much higher weight classes than Terence Crawford has, which is likely the major point that is making this fight so intriguing for people. We will talk about how much that weight might need to be considered when looking at the possible ways this fight could play out as this column goes on and the images in the Crystal Ball becomes clearer.

TERENCE CRAWFORD

Terence Crawford is generally considered more highly rated than Canelo Alvarez on all the pound for pound lists today, so that is something to keep in mind right from the start. He has been fighting for about 17 years, which is 3 years less than Canelo, but he does not have the same number of impressive names on his resume as Canelo does, but there are alot of caveats with those impressive names on Canelo's resume.

One could easily argue that the most highly rated fighters that define Canelo's resume are alot more impressive when simply reading the names, than in watching those fights and seeing the "truth" about the way those fights unfolded and played out. And that truth usually includes the reality that he didn't REALLY win his biggest fights without controversy. It also includes the reality that he arguably lost his biggest fights in the eyes of most boxing observers and unbiased boxing fans, and also DID lose two of them very widely, and we will be discussing that a bit in this article.

Terence Crawford has speed, agility, a high boxing IQ and has ALSO shown a great variation of skill sets in his matches. And although he has not faced as many huge names as Canelo has through no fault of his own, he has STILL faced the best fighters available. AND let's not forget that Terence Crawford is UNDEFEATED and has never even ARGUABLY lost to any of those top fighters through all these years, let alone officially lost to any of them.

Terence Crawford is coming into the fight with a 41-0 record which he attained fighting against the highest level of fighters in his weight classes throughout his career. He has also been consistently dominant in those fights, especially in his notable destruction of a very highly regarded top pound for pound fighter in Errol Spence.

Crawford has not been under the fan's microscope as much as Canelo has been, and most of his fights have not been huge events like Canelo's either, however Crawford DID dominate Errol Spence in such an impressive way that it was basically Crawford's announcement to the boxing world that " he had officially ARRIVED ".

Crawford's resume includes recent wins over Israil Madrimov and Errol Spence, as compared to Canelo's recent wins over William Scull and Edgar Berlanga, so Crawford's " recent" resume is better than Canelo's recent resume for sure. Crawford's performances in those fights were also much better than Canelo's performances, and that difference is greatly magnified when considering the level of competition that each respectively fought in their last couple of fights.

INTANGIBLES

Obviously the biggest intangible is going to be that Crawford is coming up two weight classes to fight Canelo Alvarez. In addition, Crawford has only had one fight at 154, as he had spent the entirety of his career before that as a welterweight (147 lbs) and lower weight classes too, so this fight will be challenging and brand new territory for Terence Crawford.

It is my own opinion that Crawford looks VERY good at this weight, very healthy and appears ready to rumble. Crawford also looks like he is at least the same size as Canelo now too.

And if my feeling is right, and the weight is not the issue most seem to be expecting it to be, then the fight will come down to the actual match itself and not their weights. That means that this fight will be as pure as just the two fighters getting into the ring and pitting their respective boxing talents against each other, and I will speak more about that later.

Another intangible is exactly how much Canelo has lost over these last few years and many are choosing to see things through rose-colored glasses. But one can not objectively argue against the fact that Canelo has been picking very easy opposition, ducking serious opposition, and especially that he has noticeably slowed a bit in these last few years, which is not a good sign, as Canelo was never a particularly fast boxer in the first place.

In addition, if one is being objective, then they can also not deny the fact that there MUST be some good reason as to why Canelo has not been able to score a stoppage win in almost 4 years since he stopped Caleb Plant in November of 2021, despite his fighting very weak opposition in that time.

Since the Plant fight, Canelo has not been able to stop ANY opponents over his last 7 fights, and the list of opponents is very low caliber. Canelo was a HUGE favorite in every one of those 7 fights he has had since he was thoroughly beaten and given a one-sided boxing lesson by Dimitrii Bivol in May of 2022 and that fight was almost 3 1/2 years ago. Ever since then, Canelo has taken the road of least resistance by ducking serious opposition, and fighting fighters that everyone knew he was going to beat. Those fighters include an aged & washed Gennady Golovkin ( in the very last fight of Golovkin's career), which most would agree was the only fight in which Canelo "truly" did beat Golovkin,

Some more intangibles to consider are that Crawford has only had a couple of semi-close fights against a very high level of competition. In contrast to Crawford, every single one of Canelo's fights against his most truly skilled opponents were fights that the majority of boxing fans thought that Canelo lost. And in order to word that in a way that Canelo's fans will find more palatable, I'll say that it is factual that out of all the most highly skilled fighters Canelo has ever fought, that he did not beat ANY of them without ALOT of controversy and questions about the judging.

BOXING & CONTROVERSY

Sadly, this is a subject that has to be considered in every single fight we watch these days, and I mean that LITERALLY. But??--- the facts from the past indicate that this subject has to be VERY CAREFULLY CONSIDERED in every single Canelo Alvarez fight, more than any other fighter, as he has been boxing's cash cow for MANY years now.

Canelo has always had the judges in his back pocket throughout his entire career, as the only 2 fights he got official losses in were MAJOR beat downs and virtual shutouts. Canelo has never lost an even remotely close fight in his entire career, and somehow always came out winning those fights or surviving them with a draw.

This has happened numerous times in regards to the judges giving Canelo questionable decisions and favoritism in their scoring. And this has remained consistent despite the controversy surrounding every one of those fights and despite most objective fans feeling his opponent won.

Let look at some examples and start with a fight that Canelo actually realistically lost by a shutout to Floyd Mayweather. As hard as this still is to believe, one judge scored the Canelo-Mayweather fight a draw at 114-114 !!

The draw stayed as that judge's official score, but that judge, C.J. Ross became an online meme and coincidentally decided to "retire" after that fight. And it was because of public outrage with her scorecard that most boxing people made it quite clear that she was " asked" to resign (after being a professional judge for years).

In addition to that judging fiasco, all THREE judges for the Bivol vs Canelo fight scored the one-sided beatdown that Bivol gave to Canelo 115-113, which is quite simply a travesty. One could argue that fight as being a shutout in Bivol's favor, but NOBODY could argue that fight as being remotely competitive AT ALL as Canelo was thoroughly dominated by and bullied by Bivol through the whole fight, and Bivol seemingly didn't even break a sweat. Yet?--- ALL three judges scored the fight 115-113 for Bivol which indicates a very competitive fight, and nobody with any boxing knowledge at all could possibly view that fight as remotely competitive.

Admittedly, the very controversial Lara fight and Trout fight were both earlier in Canelo's career and he is a much different fighter now than he was then, but they were still controversial fights that many argued he should have lost. And let's also not forget that he was beaten twice by GGG in the eyes of most everybody in boxing except Canelo's fanbase ( of which most boxing judges and boxing insiders are seemingly members of)

To put how extreme the favoritism in scoring of Canelo's fights has been, Press Row had his first fight with GGG rated HUGELY and EMBARRASSINGLY one-sided in GGG's favor as did most everyone who saw it. And here are some official numbers that were released in regards to his second fight with GGG, which was the rematch in which Canelo performed BETTER than the first fight.

In the REMATCH with GGG, which the boxing spin doctors have somehow convinced people that Canelo won or at worst deserved a draw, the reality was that press row scoring had been released after the fight and they were basically ignored by ALL #boxinginsiders and swept under the rug to protect their cash cow.

The REALITY is that of the 51 Press Row scorers for the Canelo vs GGG REMATCH, who are professionals with no vested interest in the fight??-- THIRTY FOUR scored GGG as the winner and ONLY TWO scored Canelo the winner. The remaining 15 at Press Row scored it a DRAW, and this was the rematch in which Canelo fought BETTER IN TOO.

Let that sink in !!

THIRTY FOUR had GGG winning and TWO had Canelo winning in that REMATCH, so that should make anybody who knows boxing and is picking Crawford in this fight a little wary about how the scoring will be done if they are betting this upcoming fight.

In taking #boxingpolitics that are as extreme as all we have discussed in this article into consideration??---- it is this writer's opinion that Crawford IS A GENUINELY UNDEFEATED fighter in REALITY, whereas Canelo's record could easily have 5 or 6 losses on it. It has been and can still be argued that Canelo has 2 losses to Golovkin, losses to Lara and to Trout in ADDITION to his humiliating losses to Mayweather and Bivol.

So?-- the point of reliving all those past scorecards is that if one looks at how Canelo does against truly highly skilled top fighters?--- he has not done nearly as well as his record indicates, nor has he done nearly as well as the judges scores would indicate in those fights. The bottom line is that he did not win a single one of those fights clearly in the eyes of almost any unbiased boxing fans.

That said?--- those above examples ALL had VERY questionable scorecards, and yet, they ALL favored Canelo----every single time. And it is my opinion, that if boxing bettors are to judge from almost 15 years of past history, Canelo will get the victory in this fight on the judges scorecards IFFF this fight with Crawford even approaches being close.

Terence Crawford, has only had two somewhat close fights in his incredible career (Porter and Madrimov), and there was no controversy at all when those results were announced. There was no question Crawford beat Madrimov and Madrimov was a quality opponent and the scoring was fairly close, but very fair in Crawford's favor. In addition, his fight with Shawn Porter was close and most everyone agreed that Crawford had won, yet the scorecards were STILL close, so Crawford has NEVER gotten any favoritism.

The difference between these two, is that the Terence Crawford scorecards reflect the actual fight, and one could easily argue that the Canelo scorecards do not even come close to reflecting his actual fights. This is why I think #boxingpolitics needs to be considered and heavily weighed in this fight because it is obvious that one of these two fighters gets alot of "overly enthusiastic" judging (Canelo), while the other one gets the true scores reflected.

But, even in considering that, the truth is that it is Crawford who has not had many close fights at all, yet it has been Canelo, who despite getting the benefit of the judges' scorecards either gets HIGHLY controversial wins that most fans think he lost or he DOES lose whenever he fights highly talented, top level fighters. And make no mistake about it, but in this fight, Crawford is one of the most highly talented, top level fighters that Canelo has EVER faced.

When we consider that Canelo has never clearly beaten ANY of the top level fighters he has ever faced, we need to also weigh the fact that the same can not be said for Crawford. Terence Crawford has never been considered to have gotten the benefit of any judge's scoring by the majority of boxing fans and that difference between the two fighters does need to be considered if one is thinking about betting this fight.

THE FIGHT

Okay--- well, now after all that, let's talk about the fight and the very first thing is that I do not think that the weight gain will be the issue some think it will be for Crawford.

A perfect analogy in my mind is years back when Manny Pacquaio fought Oscar DeLaHoya and moved up TWO weight classes EXACTLY like Crawford is doing in this fight against Canelo.

And another similarity in that same fight is that Pacquaio moved up those TWO weight classes right after moving up a weight class for his fight right before DeLaHoya against David Diaz , which is ALSO exactly what Crawford did in his fight against Madrimov, which was his last fight before Canelo.

It is the exact same pattern and there are some other striking similarities.

Another similarity is that Pacquaio was considered to be much too small to beat the MUCH bigger Oscar DelaHoya, but Pacquaio did not just beat him, but he annihilated him. DeLaHoya ended up quitting on his stool, and the "little man" underdog Pacquaio sent the MUCH BIGGER man, the favorite, Oscar DeLaHoya into retirement.

And one more similarity is that while Pacquaio was the underdog, he was not nearly as big an underdog as expected. The same has happened with this fight. Terence Crawford is also not as big an underdog as expected, and is also moving up 2 weight classes like Pacquaio.

In addition Crawford also just moved up a weight class in his last fight, as Pacquaio also did. And another eerie similarity is that the odds for Crawford vs Canelo are VERY similar to the odds in the Pacquaio vs DeLaHoya fight. The odds for both fights were closer than expected, especially considering the challenge that both Pacquaio and Crawford were expected to be taking on, because everyone knows that a good big man beats a good little man, right??

Now---in exploring yet another similarity?--- Pacquaio's size actually worked in his favor, as he was quicker, packed a great punch, and was able to move around and punch from various angles against DeLaHoya , who had a very predictable boxing style. And ironically Pacquaio's size, which DeLaHoya had handpicked became the biggest nightmare of DeLaHoya's career. In one more similarity for us to consider, DeLaHoya, like Canelo is not hard to find or hit in the ring, and neither of them was known for their speed either.

I can actually see this upcoming fight playing out in a very similar fashion to the Paquaio vs DeLaHoya fight, for many reasons. For one thing, Canelo was never a fast fighter in his prime, but he has also slowed in these last years. Canelo also has a very predictable style and it is easy to figure out most every move he is going to make and in comparison, Crawford is also a fast fighter,with a big punch like Pacquaio, and Crawford does not have a predictable style like Canelo at all, and that is yet one MORE similarity to Pacquaio vs DeLaHoya.

I think that stylistically, it will be very easy for Crawford to find Canelo in that ring, but it will not be easy for Canelo to find Crawford. Canelo's defense has not been very good recently and he has been getting hit too often by very low level opponents that were tailor-made for him.

Canelo also ALWAYS struggles with fighters who move and he only seems to be able to be at his most effective when he fights against fighters who stand right in front of him, and in recent fights he hasn't even done that very well.

Canelo is also facing one of the toughest opponents of his career, so I expect Canelo to get hit alot in this fight. I also expect Crawford's movement and ring IQ to make it very difficult for Canelo to plant his feet and land his once trademark body shots. I must also add that I do not think Canelo has a high boxing IQ at all. Canelo knows one way to fight, and that is the sum total of what Crawford needs to expect in this fight, but it's not going to be the same way for Canelo.

The reality is that even when Canelo does land his once trademark body shots these days, his low level opponents have been able to take them, keep on fighting and they all had no trouble making it the distance. And let's remember that these were NOT quality opponents and that their styles were perfect fodder for Canelo too.

We could also consider that Crawford is older than Canelo on paper as he will be 38 in two weeks after the fight in late September, and Canelo only just turned 35 in July. This makes Crawford 3 years older, for all practical purposes. But alas, that is their age on paper.

Their age in the ring is a very different story, as Canelo has been in alot of wars, gotten hit alot, and is showing signs of wear at 35, where-as Crawford has not been in many wars at all as he always cleanly won without absorbing much damage, and he has also not shown any signs of wear or any diminishment of his talents.

The one question about Crawford in that area though, is that he has only had one fight to judge him by since he fought Errol Spence a bit over 2 years ago. But that fight was against the talented Israil Madrimov and Crawford looked good in the fight, especially when we weigh the quite high talent level of his opponent Madrimov.

Canelo did NOT look good AT ALL in his last fight against William Skull. I am aware many people accused Skull of running in that fight, but that was not what I saw. If Skull had been running, he would not have landed the same amount of punches as Canelo did in that fight. And one could easily argue that it was a very close fight too. But the spin doctors went to work, and now it has been accepted as fact that Skull ran and Canelo dominated the fight.

But I always use my own eyes, and I saw a noticeably slow, plodding Canelo unable to cut off the ring against a younger faster opponent, who had the right moves. The problem for Skull was that he simply did not possess the ring IQ to be able to take full advantage of executing those moves nor did he have the experience and confidence to try to hit Canelo with anything meaningful. And that is what lost him a fight that a more experienced fighter on Skulls's level and with Skull's style might have been able to win.

Canelo fought in his usual style against Skull as he never changes his style and he was simply NOT able to cut off the ring. And if he could not come close to cutting off the ring against somebody like Skull and land more punches than he did against Skull, then I think Crawford's boxing acumen is going to be very much on display when they fight. And I believe Crawford's ring IQ will help him control the pacing and their positioning during the fight and show the level of fighter that Crawford truly is.

I can see Canelo getting frustrated with Crawford's movement, and as I said earlier, Canelo is a very predictable fighter. And that predictability has clearly worked very well for him as he has built himself a Hall of Fame career. That said, Canelo always has trouble with fighters that can move, and Canelo simply does not have a very big bag of tricks in the boxing ring, and he has never handled ANY fighter on Crawford's level that he ever won without seeming favoritism and controversy or outright lost it ( Bivol and Mayweather)

Canelo has not been able to look like us usually does when he has faced truly high level opposition, and his resume is quite deceiving when one truly analyzes all the impressive names on it.

The fact is that his resume on paper is ALOT more impressive in the reading of the names, than the truth about his actual performances against those top fighters with the impressive names, up to and including questions about the "true" results of those specific fights.

As far as their styles in this fight, I see Crawford moving alot in this fight, using his speed, movement, power, fighting at various angles and greatly frustrating Canelo. I expect Crawford to be throwing REAL punches and not showing the reticence that some of Canelo's previous lower level opponents showed.

Crawford also seems very comfortable at this higher weight and I think it will work to his advantage and not his disadvantage for this fight, as he will be quicker, and I think his power is going to carry too.

THE #CRYSTALBALLBOXING PREDICTION

I'm looking into the Crystal Ball now and getting a clear image and it seems it is a bit concerned with the judges in this fight. But, it ALSO seems to be reflecting that Crawford will win widely enough and emphatically enough that the judges should NOT be able to deny Crawford. The Crystal Ball's images are coming through clearly now and the Crystal Ball is reflecting:

• The Pick: Terence Crawford TO WIN and beat Canelo Alvarez in wide and convincing fashion.

#CRYSTALBALLBOXING SUGGESTED BETTING

Everybody should bet this fight in their own way and follow their own hearts, of course, but these are my thoughts & suggestions on how to bet this fight.

As we discussed earlier, due to the long history of the way judges seem to greatly favor Canelo in fights, I would recommend backing yourself up when betting this particular fight, even though I expect it to be very one-sided for Crawford. Here would be my suggestion:

1) Place 90% of your stake on "Terence Crawford to win" at +145

and

2) Place the remaining 10% of your stake on the "DRAW" at +1400

If one invested a mythical $100 in that manner the bets would be as itemized below:

1) If you bet $90 on " Crawford To Win" you'd get back $220.50 ---- a profit of $120.50 on the total $100 investment.

2) If you bet $10 on " The DRAW" at 14-1 you'd get back $150 on the $10 DRAW bet -- and you'd also get your $90 investment on the " Crawford To Win" bet as it would be voided if it's a DRAW and returned back for a total return of $240 which is a profit of $140 on the total $100 investment.

The reason for those large payouts on both bets is that in the event of a draw, the "WIN" bet would NOT LOSE and would be voided and the $90 investment on the "WIN" bet would be refunded back to your account along with the investment and winnings for the DRAW bet, which makes both bets equally very profitable, and covers you in the event of a DRAW.

ADDING THE 10% DRAW BET REASON FULLY EXPLAINED

The reason the " DRAW" bet is a necessary back up for a bettor in THIS fight is that when one is honest with themselves, it almost seems foolish to think the judging in THIS fight with boxing's cash cow Canelo would be different than ALL his other big fights against top fighters.

My concern as a bettor in " THIS particular fight" is that I think they might score it a VERY controversial DRAW because it's my belief that Crawford will win TOO widely for them to DARE to give Canelo the WIN---- but I CAN see them giving Canelo the gift of the DRAW.

It is also very noteworthy to remember that if they make the result a DRAW, then it does NOT affect Crawford's unbeaten record either, so he would keep his ZERO. There'd be a bit less outrage if it was politically handled in that manner and it would make selling a rematch even easier than it already inherently is.

Basically, I would not personally leave MY investment in the hands of the judges in THIS fight, because even if Crawford seems to win in the totally one-sided fashion I expect bettors would still need to worry that they might score it a DRAW anyway, unless Crawford can take it out of the judges hands. And given Canelo's past history and Crawford's own comments, that is not something I expect to happen in this fight.

So my suggestion to ALL bettors is to:

1) Think of the first Canelo fight with GGG being scored a draw when most thought GGG had CLEARLY won it. And to also remember that Adelaide Byrd somehow scored that fight 118-110 for Canelo when one could argue it was closer to 118-110 for GGG)----- and then

2) Think of the scorecards for the Bivol fight all being 115-113 for Bivol after the one-sided boxing lesson and beaten he gave Canelo----- and

3) Think of the 114-114 draw one judge who had to resign after that fight gave Canelo after Mayweather shut him out---- and

4) Think of the rest of all the Canelo scorecards we discussed and all the points we discussed in detail earlier---- and

5) Weigh all that in your own mind, and then, if you agree with the Crystal Ball's prediction, you can simply decide within yourself if you want to bet your whole 100% on "Crawford To Win" or split the stake as suggested above.

But as for this column and for the reasons stated in regards to THIS particular fight??--- #CrystalBallBoxing suggests backing yourself up.

Whatever you decide --- I wish you the VERY best of luck in your bets and ENJOY the fight!!

Johnny Wright

 

  

  

____________________

 Johnny is the walking embodiment of a boxing purist. One of the finest boxing analysts you could ever wish to meet, his ability to pick the fights is, quite literally, second-to-none.

____________________

THE SCORECARD

Watching the fight?  Try our interactive scorecard that allows you to give your opinion and a backup total when the rounds are hard to score. 

    

 

 

 

____________________

• For SharpBetting football, click here.
• For Sharpbetting boxing, click here.
• For SharpBetting racing, click here.
• For SharpBetting school, click here.