Next up, the big one... don't blink, it's Fabio Wardley vs Daniel Dubois this weekend and currently that's just one of 27 picks in The Boxing App - all included with a Day Pass this weekend.  (Use discount code "johnny20" for 20% off access before the first bell.)

   

Editorial (700 words)

Wardley enters as a slight favourite largely due to impressive comeback wins over Huni and Parker, but he looked to be heading toward defeat in both fights before producing late stoppages. His earlier majority draw with Clarke was also extremely close, and many observers felt it could have gone against him. While his heart cannot be questioned, he has often been operating on narrow margins rather than the clear dominance that the headline-grabbing wins can sometimes imply, and he has generally been competing at a slightly lower level than Dubois.

In terms of momentum, Wardley clearly has the wind behind his sails, whereas Dubois is rebuilding after the punishing Usyk stoppage and a brief (and fruitless) change of trainer. Dubois has long faced criticism for finding ways out of fights rather than showing the kind of resilience Wardley has repeatedly displayed. He admitted that the split with Don Charles was a rash decision and decided to return to the coach who guided him to world champion status. But given the signs of turmoil in some of their camps, it is questionable if this reunion is a positive or a negative move. On balance, after briefly working (out of camp) with Tony Sims, it feels like the correct decision.

The opening betting lines suggest the recent Usyk defeat is being weighted more heavily than Dubois’ strong run of opposition prior to that bout, which included Miller, Hrgović and Joshua. Dubois absorbed considerable punishment against Hrgović, the lack of head-movement was a concern, while Wardley has developed a habit of winning from losing positions and is almost always cut due to a nose injury that will just not go away. So we know both men can be hurt.

Sometimes big punchers can cancel each other out in a war of attrition as both men respect the danger of the other, but that does not appear to be likely here. Several sportsbooks are currently offering 4/9 odds (1.44 decimal; -227 US Odds) for the fight to not go the distance. We would have that even shorter. This is not a fight that looks destined to go to the cards. Both come to fight, both are vulnerable, neither man is known for their defensive skills.

The matchup contrasts Wardley’s resilience, momentum and confidence-under-pressure with Dubois’ jab-led control and world-class power, but the current odds hint at some recency bias that has resulted in the slight favouritism for the Ipswich man. With the fight still three months away (9 May 2026), it is likely to split opinion across the boxing world, with credible arguments on both sides.

It feels closer to a coin-flip than the current 57%:43% market probabilities suggests. Many expected the Moneyline to slightly favour Dubois and had that been the case, Wardley may have been the value pick. However, with odds of 2.20 (= 6/5; +120) available and a real possibility the fight closes in to being a perfect pick'em by fight week, the preference here is to take the plus money on the underdog.

But don’t mistake that for anything like certainty. This isn’t a mortgage job; it’s excellent match-making and one of the most compelling fights that can currently be made in heavyweight boxing. [13-Feb-2026]

FIGHT-WEEK: Halfway through fight week, and the pick'em odds have not materialised. Nevertheless, the vast majority of pundits are quite reasonably calling this as a legitimate 50:50. With Dubois available at even-money now (he was picked by The Boxing App at 2.2 decimal odds back in February), we still think that any plus-money in this fight is the correct side to be on from a value point of view. Most of the sportbooks are offering evens (2.00; +100) about Dubois and for bettors looking to get the draw on their side too, the SharpBetting exchange calculator [link below] can be a useful tool to support the boxing app. [6-May-2026]

WEIGH-IN: By the time of the weigh-in at 6pm on Friday night, late money has come in for the slight-underdog and the the only sportsbook in the UK offering even-money about Dubois is Unibet. Or the Exchange. [8-May-2026]

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