Welcome to another #WRIGHTORWRONG article, which I write when I have low confidence about a fight outcome and/or bet. And then I work my thoughts out in real time in these articles along with anyone who is reading it. And we have a terrific match coming up between Naoya Inoue and Junto Nakatani on May 2nd. This has potential to be a Fight Of The Year candidate, and the potential to possibly shake up the P4P ratings, and that is what we are going to look at here.

The Breakdown

As I look at this fight, the general public is greatly overlooking Nakatani's chances to win as I think the odds are way off. I think some of the money being bet on Inoue is being bet on him because of his very high, well-deserved P4P rating and his much heralded status in today's boxing. I also believe that reason is coupled with Nakatani's poor first outing at Super-Bantamweight in his only fight at this weight, leading to far wider odds than what I believe the actual odds should be for this fight.

In looking at the pros and cons of each of them, it is obvious they are both highly skilled, top-level fighters. It is also obvious that Inoue has been dominant in virtually all of his fights and deserves his ranking as one of the top 2 or 3 P4P fighters in the world, while on the other hand, Nakatani arguably lost his very last fight. But, in my opinion, despite that one off-night, Nakatani also deserves a place amonng the top-10 P4P fighters today, which is what makes this fight so compelling.

One dilemma I have is the question of how well Nakatani's power can carry to this weight class as he has only fought once at this weight, and the fight went the distance, and he arguably lost the fight ( which is part of what is making the odds in this fight wider than they should be)---but I am proceeding on the assumption that many fighters need one fight to adjust to a new weight the first time, and I think Nakatani will be just fine.

In looking at the speed factor, Inoue is the faster fighter without any question, which is surely a positive. And Inoue has also fought better competition, which is another positive. But, there might be a cloud that is blocking out some of that silver lining.

Let's consider that Inoue is 33 years old now, has been in alot of wars against the very best fighters out there and has done that at a few different weight classes too. In comparison, Nakatani is only 28 and appears to be hitting his prime now, despite the bad night at the office in his last fight. That could suggest that the timing of this meeting could potentially be a positive for Nakatani.

Additionally, Inoue might be showing a few signs of slippage, though it is hard to be sure. I could be #WrightOrWrong about this, but in analyzing this every way I can think of, a very positive point about Inoue's punch resistance is that he has only been knocked down two times in his entire professional career. However, the details of that could also be an indication of a bit of slippage as both of those two knockdowns happened fairly recently, with the most recent one happening only one year ago, and he went down hard too.

In addition he was knocked down by the same punch in both fights ( a hard left hook, which is southpaw Nakatani's money punch) and to make things more interesting, Inoue keeps his right hand very low when he fights too, which could be problematic for him in this fight with a talented hard-hitting southpaw like Nakatani.

In addition, one could look at Inoue's record, watch his fights and appreciate that he has an impressive 27 KO/TKO wins in 32 career fights, which is a fantastic ratio. But there is also a flip side to that too, because his last two fights have gone the distance. As for the reason those fights went the distance?-- well, since they are also the "only" two fights he has had since he was knocked down for a second time a year ago, one might question if he is playing it a bit safer in approaching his fights now due to that second hard, flush knockdown only a year ago. It is something I ponder, as slippages to great fighters like Inoue often happen rather gradually and not all at once.

It must also be mentioned that in Nakatani's last fight he struggled greatly with Sebastian Hernandez Reyes, but Reyes is a MUCH different style fighter than Inoue, especially for Nakatani. Hernandez is a non-stop, come forward, Mexican style brawler which is a much different style than Inoue. And #WrightOrWrong, I think Nakatani will be much more comfortable with Inoue's style than he was with the style of Sebastian Hernandez Reyes who never let Nakatani get into the proper range. That type of style was not optimal for Nakatani, and as we all know "styles make fights". In addition, it was also Nakatani's first fight at that new weight class after moving up to Super Bantamweight.

Nakatani is also a very hard hitting southpaw. And though Inoue has handled southpaws well in the past, he also suffered his 1st career knockdown from a hard left hook from a southpaw ( Luis Nery) who is three inches shorter than Nakatani, and also has a three inch shorter reach than Nakatani.

That is potentially a big advantage for Nakatani, as he is a strong southpaw and his signature punch is his left hook. And he has the advantage over Luis Nery who knocked Inoue down, in that Nakatani can throw his left hook from more different angles due to being 3 inches taller than Nery. And he can also throw it from further back than Nery due to his 3 inch reach advantage, which would not force him to have to get quite as close to Inoue's power to land it flush.

In addition, Nakatani can maintain his distance very well as a boxer too. And the reason I believe Hernandez had so much success against Nakatani was because Hernandez was able to close the distance between him and Nakatani for the entire fight because of his style. Inoue is not the same style fighter/brawler as Hernandez, and if he did choose to fight in that manner, I believe it would end very badly for Inoue.

Conversely, in comparison to Inoue's recent 2 trips to the canvas in the last 2 years, Nakatani has only been knocked down once in his whole career and it was 9 years ago in a 6 round fight while he was still working his way through the ranks. So one can be confident that Nakatani has a very good chin, as he has also fought high quality opposition too (though not quite the same level as Inoue). Nakatani can also move well in the ring and in my eyes is also the best opponent that Inoue has ever faced, hence the excitement about this fight.

The pick, bets and other thoughts

I have gone back and forth with this one, but I can just not shake the feeling that Nakatani might have Inoue's number. He has a good sized reach, he is a southpaw with a great left hook, which is the punch that put Inoue down TWICE and one of those fighters was ALSO a southpaw. Nakatani also has a very good jaw, and can also box very well too. Nakatani is also just now hitting his prime, and as good as Inoue has looked in his recent fights?---it can not be denied that he has been knocked down 2 times in the last 2 years, and has also had alot of fights in those last 2 years also ( Nakatani will be his 7th)---and lets not forget that since Inoue was knocked down last year, both his fights have gone the distance.

It is very important to note that at such a low weight ( Super-Bantamweight), Inoue's age of 33 is alot "older" than the age of 33 is for fighters in the higher weight classes, and the prime of their careers are shorter in lower weights too. In addition, the fact that Inoue has so many fights in such a short period of time and has been so impressive against the very best opponents is what makes him such a great fighter. However, there is potential negative there, because that type of continuous activity against all high level opponents at such a low weight and at the age of 33 can take a toll on a lower weight fighter much more quickly than it can on a higher weight fighter.

Inoue is unquestionably a great fighter, but nobody can defy the laws of physics: the big question for me in this fight, is if the time I am referring to has arrived just yet for Inoue ?? -- It is very hard to know for sure, so I will say the following with low/medium confidence--- that in considering Nakatani is his competition in this upcoming fight??--- I am thinking that time has arrived for Inoue.

As a result of weighing all of my aforementioned thoughts, my gut is telling me that Nakatani beats Inoue.

I also might add that if Nakatani's power carries at this weight, and I think it will, that it is my belief that he has all the tools needed to stop Inoue inside the distance. And additionally, even if he does not knock Inoue out, I think that simply due to the fact that Inoue usually keeps his right hand very low when he fights, that Nakatani is quite capable of knocking Inoue down a couple of times and hitting him emphatically often enough that it would be enough to win him a decision. In my eyes, Inoue has never been hard to find in the ring for the more highly skilled boxers he has faced.

So the sum total of all the above is that I see this fight as close to a 50/50 fight on paper, but am picking Nakatani to beat Inoue and hand Inoue his first loss.

Additionally, the odds on Nakatani to win are currently +300 (and higher if you look around; The Boxing App picked him at 4.33 decimal odds; 10/3 fracctional; +333 US odds), and so the best bet here in my eyes is clearly Nakatani on the Moneyline. I see Nakatani as a huge overlay against Inoue, so even if Nakatani loses, I will still be happy to have placed my money on Nakatani in this one with absolutely no regrets at those overly generous odds of +300.

The SharpBetting Line

For those who have access to the "Sharpbetting Boxing App" and are enjoying the boxing picks, member perks, interactive scorecard and other helpful tools it offers, you will now have the ability to bet on that SharpBetting 50/50 line utilizing the SharpBetting Boxing service itself.

If you agree with me, but you think you might want to bet this fight result a little more conservatively than I'll be doing, I would suggest thinking about using SharpBetting's 50/50 line and think about betting the "ANY OTHER RESULT" choice in this fight. That bet would mean you would be "betting ALL results OTHER than Inoue winning inside the distance ( between rounds 1-12)" at very generous odds of 1.85 decimal (17/20 fractional).

    

Please remember that these are just my opinions and personal thoughts on the best ways to play this great fight and please remember never to bet more than you can afford to lose. And until we meet again, whether I am #WrightOrWrong, I will have a great time watching this fight, as I hope and expect this one to be a real barnburner.

Thank you and good luck! Johnny Wright, USA

 

  

 

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