Bookmakers have been predicting results for the upcoming election.
On 22nd May, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stood outside Number 10 in the rain, announcing the general election date: 4th July. Will we have another Tory government or will Labour cinch it for the first time since 2005?
In this article we will examine and update the odds changes during the campaign.
3rd July 2024
Tomorrow is General Election day in the UK. Labour are 1.03 to get an overall majority (from 1.04 on 25th June) on the Betfair exchange. No overall majority is 34.0 and the Tories are 320.0 to get an overall majority.
In Islington North ex-Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is 2.32 and Labour are 1.62 on Betfair. He was 1.4 to win back on 31st May.
Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, looks set to win Clacton. He available to back at 1.12 on Betfair with the Conservatives on 9.0 and Labour on 21.0.
The final YouGov MRP Poll:
Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory
— YouGov (@YouGov) July 3, 2024
Labour: 431 (+229 from GE2019 result)
Con: 102 (-263)
Lib Dem: 72 (+61)
SNP: 18 (-30)
Reform UK: 3 (+3)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
Green: 2 (+1)
Fieldwork: 19 June - 2 Julyhttps://t.co/JxacgEVIPW pic.twitter.com/g8G2mtbGTn
25th June 2024
With just over a week to polling day Labour are now 1.04 (from 1.06 on June 14th) on the Betfair Exchange to achieve an overall majority.
The Tories have been marred by betting scandal in the last week. It is alleged that several people linked to the party placed bets on the date of the election before the date was announced. The Gambling Commission is currently investigating.
The BBC Poll Tracker has the following national averages and ranges:
- Labour 41% (36-46%)
- Conservatives 20% (15-25%)
- Reform UK 17% (14-20%)
- Liberal Democrats 11% (8-14%)
14th June 2024
As the second week of June comes to a close little has changed on the overall majority betting market for the UK General Election.
Labour are at 1.06 on the Betfair exchange (in from 1.07 on 5th June) to win an overall majority and the Tories are out 110.
The latest YouGov poll that was released on 13th June has some slight changes:
- Labour 37%
- Reform UK 19%
- Conservatives 18%
- Liberal Democrats 14%
Reform UK have overtaken the Tories in a national poll for the first time. The vote share match bet between Conservatives and Reform UK has the Tories favourite at 1.48 (out from 1.39 on 5th June).
If more polls confirm the Reform lead we could see the odds flip flop and Reform UK become the favourite for this match bet before the election.
5th June 2024
Last night's debate on ITV between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak did little to move the odds on who is going to win an overall majority on 5th July (Labour are still 1.07). A snap poll straight after the debate had 51% saying Sunak won it compared to 49% for Starmer.
An interesting YouGov Poll was released today on national voting intention. The sample was from 2,144 adults taken online on 3rd June -4th June.
- Labour: 40%
- Conservatives: 19%
- Reform UK: 17%
- Liberal Democrats: 10%
- Green Party: 7%
This puts Reform just 2% behind the Tories. The odds for the Reform UK to gain a higher vote share than the Tories have been slashed on Betfair Exchange from 4.8 yesterday to just 3.4 today.
4th June 2024
Following Nigel Farage announcing he was standing as an MP and taking over the leadership of Reform UK, Labour are now 1.06 to win an overall majority on Betfair. The Tories are out to 110.
One market of interest is UK vote share of Conservatives against Reform UK. The Tories are 1.22 and Reform UK are 4.8 to win this match bet.
3rd June 2024
Nigel Farage has now taken over as leader of Reform UK for the next 5 years. He is standing in Clacton to be an MP. Bet365 have him 1.91 to win in Clacton. The Tories are 2.1.
Star Sports have Farage at 1.62.
?️ | FARAGE STANDS
— Star Sports Bookmakers (@StarSports_Bet) June 3, 2024
? Nigel Farage is standing in Clacton!
He’s never won a seat in Parliament - but he’s 8/13 to win with Star Sports:
⭐ BET NOW: https://t.co/Ff0U0kHvkS
☎ 08000 521 321
? T&Cs apply | 18+ https://t.co/M160bmFAf9 https://t.co/68YdtjYNly
Tories are now 75.0 to win a majority on Betfair. Labour are into 1.08 from 1.11.
31st May 2024
The latest polls show 44.7% of voters are leaning towards Labour. But what do the bookies say?
Will Sir Keir Starmer be the next Prime Minister?
According to bookmakers Unibet, Betway and MGM, the odds are at 1.05 for Starmer to become the next PM.
Will Labour Win an Overall Majority?
The Betfair Exchange has the best price for Labour winning an overall majority at 1.11.
Jeremy Corbyn is a big favourite to defeat Labour in Islington North as an independent
Oddschecker have a list of betting for every constituency in the UK here.
William Hill and Bet365 have been bold and priced them all up.
Former Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is at 1.4 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Star Sports to defeat Labour in Islington North. Labour are top price at 3.0 with Bet365 to retain the seat.
