Fabio Wardley will defend his British and Commonwealth heavyweight titles against Frazer Clarke this weekend, Sunday March 31 at The O2 in London, live on Sky Sports. Viral sensation Ben Whittaker, who splits opinions with his flamboyant showboating, is on the undercard.
Sunday night boxing
Something feels a little off when thinking about a heavyweight boxing match taking place on Easter Sunday evening.
But absolutely nothing feels off about the quality of the fight itself; Wardley vs Clarke is as high a caliber matchup at British and Commonwealth level as it gets. It sees two young, undefeated, hungry heavyweights in tremendous shape and with genuine motivation to win.
At the SharpBetting HQ we will be putting our eggs to one side and will be glued to SkySports on Sunday night. There’s no PPV for this one; Sky Sports Action from 6pm and Sky Sports Main Event from 7pm.
Most fights need an “angle” to push the promotion. In this fight, the narrative is that Clarke, an Olympic Bronze Medalist, has to win for the credibility of boxing. That his amateur pedigree and experience from more than 100 bouts, should be enough to see off the younger Wardley, 29, who is seen as a raw upstart who learned the trade by tearing through the ranks of White-Collar Boxing.
(If not quite on the same level, it’s a similar story heard with crossover fights when boxers and MMA fighters share the ring.)
It’s a decent enough angle, and a compelling one. It’s powerful enough that if you pull up any YouTube clip for trade predictions, predictably, you will hear a large number of boxing insiders refer to it as a pick’em fight, a genuine 50:50.
The matchup
At 32, Clarke is the older man and the more experienced with more than a decade in the amateur ranks, culminating in medals at National, European, Commonwealth and Olympic levels. He bas been a pro for two years, getting to 8-0 on that time, with 6 wins inside the distance.
Wardley turned pro five years earlier than Clarke, going the 4-round distance in his debut in 2017. He has stopped every man he has faced since then. He is now 17-0 (16).
There is a certain irony that Clarke is coming off a laboured win over perennial everyman Dave Allen, who in many ways is the walking embodiment of the type of opponent that Wardley is critisced for facing in his formative years.
We know that Wardley can take a punch, has been hurt and cut, and that he can come back from adversity, bite down on the gumshield, and win. Can Clarke exploit any holes in Wardley's sometimes leaky defence? I don't consider him as a huge puncher, the years of honing his craft in the amateurs has made him something of an arm-puncher rather than a legitimately dangerous knockout artist.
Seeing his less-than-stella performances against Allen, and before that against a middle-aged and out-of-shape Mariusz Wach, he is not exactly riding on a wave of confidence as he goes into this fight. I believe it is too soon for him and I think he feels that way too, and I expect he will say precisely that in the post-fight interview.
On the other hand, Wardley comes off an impressive win over David Adeleye in his last fight in October 2023. For what it is worth, I would pick Adeleye to beat Clarke and wouldn't be surprised to see that fight later this year. Wardley, for me, has the better resume with this win over Adeleye and previous wins over a faded Eric Molina and more recently in a fairly close betting fight against Nathan Gorman just over a year ago.
Gloves are off
The now standard face-to-face interviews ahead of big fights can leave some fight fans cold. But sometimes they provide insight beyond what is going on behind closed doors in training camps. Boxing is unique in this regard. Sometimes you just see something, a subtle psychological difference, that makes you think that both fighters know their respective roles.
In The Gloves Are Off filmed ahead of this fight, I would challenge any Clarke-backers to isolate anything that gives them confidence about their pick. This might be nothing more than amateur armchair psychobabble, and of course it is fine to say that. But I absolutely like what I saw in Wardley throughout this conversation.
The betting
These are the current odds at the time of writing a few days out from the weigh-in:
Wardley is a 4/9 favourite so it’s not quite the pick’em the promotors claim. Usually, if the experts say it’s a 50:50 fight, and you can get 2/1 about the underdog, that’s the obvious play right?
Not for me. Professional boxing and the amateur code are not the same thing. There have been numerous amateur stars who have not crossed over to professional boxing with the same success. The opposite is also true; some highly successful professionals have had limited amateur experience. I think Sunday night will be another example of this.
Selection
I am not expecting to see Wardley in any real trouble in this fight and he might just do something spectacular. More likely, this goes long and he wears Clarke down late in the fight or wins a wide decision. I don't like the method of victory prices for this one (if pushed I would look for anything above evens about the Wardley KO) and I am more than happy to take Wardley at odds-on.
In conclusion, I’m fairly confident that taking the Wardley odds of 4/9 to win the fight by any method is the smart play here.
- Fabio Wardley to win @ 1.44 (4/9 in fractional odds)
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