From across the pond for SharpBetting, Johnny Wright dusts off the Crystal Ball ahead of Saturday's massive rematch in Leeds, UK. Over two years in the making, Catteral finally gets the chance for revenge after most viewers thought he should have got the decision in their first fight.
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Basking in the glow
Hey, my friends, and as we are just about done basking in the glow of a very excellent fight last week and a clear and well-deserved victory for Olexander Usyk over Tyson Fury, as always happens in the world of boxing, as in life, time moves on and the attention of boxing fans focus on the NEXT big fight as the last big fight settles itself into the annals of boxing history.
The next big fight is a very interesting one, and it's the long anticipated rematch between Josh Taylor and Jack Catterall. Though this fight is not for any title or any championship belt from any of the countless boxing organizations, it is a very big fight and one that will likely dictate the future of both fighters. If this fight seems familiar to readers, that is because it IS familiar, because as mentioned earlier it is a rematch between Taylor and Catterall as they have fought once before in February of 2022, over 2 years ago.
In their first encounter, Josh Taylor was awarded a Split Decision victory over Jack Catterall in a fight that the vast majority of observers felt should have been won by Catterall, but regardless of differing opinions on who the rightful winner should have been, the " official" result was a SD victory for Josh Taylor, and the controversy of their 1st fight serves to add to the intrigue of how this second fight will play out.
In order to most accurately do that we will be weighing the pros and cons of the fighters, facts about the fight itself along with the various boxing angles that might affect the outcome too, as it is sadly no longer a matter of just picking the correct winner in a fight, but we also have to consider boxing politics into our equation before we decide to invest our money on the outcome of a fight.
The breakdown: Josh Taylor
There is no question that Josh Taylor has been a great fighter but the question we need to ask ourselves before THIS fight, is if at 33 1/2 yrs old Josh Taylor is STILL a great fighter.
Most thought Taylor lost to Jack Catterall in the first meeting and in his next fight he was subsequently dog-walked by Teofimo Lopez. Was Teofimo Lopez truly THAT much better than Josh Taylor, or was it more indicative of Taylor declining??
Of course, it is impossible to know for sure, but let's take a look at certain signs we've been given to best try to figure that out.
Before Taylor fought Lopez in his last fight, we can see that Taylor fought a "who's who" of the very top Jr Welterweights on his way to becoming a Unified Jr Welterweight champion and ultimately becoming the UNDISPUTED Jr Welterweight champion when he beat Jose Carlos Ramirez a full THREE years ago.
To put how good the opponents he beat were into perspective, consider that starting with O'Hara Davies in 2017, he fought 10 of the top Jr. Welterweight contenders and 7 of them were unbeaten ( he fought 6 unbeaten top contenders in a row at one point). In addition, the combined record of those 10 opponents he fought between 2017-2022 was 246 -9- 5 and they were all the top contenders. Let that all truly sink in--- 246-9-5 !!
His resume absolutely shines and is arguably the best resume among active boxers---ESPECIALLY in this day and age of fighters cherry-picking opponents and padding their records.
His last fight and victory during his incredible run of domination was his first fight with Jack Catterall in 2022 in which Taylor was a huge 9-1 favorite on the betting line against the relatively unknown Jack Catterall for that fight. Taylor was frustrated, beaten to the punch, outlanded and even got knocked down in that fight. The vast majority of the boxing public thought he lost that fight, but the judges somehow managed to find a way to give him a SD victory and protect Taylor's unbeaten record and kept his marketability as the A-side fighter intact despite the fact that Taylor was expected to walk through the 9-1 underdog Catterall, which is something he surely did NOT do.
The breakdown: Jack Catterall
Jack Catterall has proven himself to be a very, very good fighter. In comparing him to Taylor, he is never going to equal Taylor's achievements but we are not comparing their careers as fighters, but rather, we are comparing the two of them stylistically to ' each other' only, and at THIS point in time only, to try to discern who the winner will be.
So, as mentioned, Jack Catterall was able to beat Josh Taylor in their first fight in the eyes of most who saw the fight, although he did not get the decision, but he DID show the public that, at the very least, he was certainly the equal of Josh Taylor in that particular fight and that those 9-1 odds actually should have been closer to even odds.
In fact, not only was Jack Catterall an essentially unknown huge underdog when they fought the first time, but he was also a fighter who had none of the amateur background of Josh Taylor in addition to having none of the professional achievements or signature wins of Josh Taylor either, so the 9-1 odds against Catterall seemed justified especially as Catterall had been doing all his growing and learning in his boxing career in the professional ranks.
Catterall has fought twice in 2023 since that 2022 meeting with Taylor and he won both those fights quite easily and by extremely wide decisions.
On the flipside of that, Taylor has had only one fight in 2023 since that 2022 meeting with Catterall and he lost that one fight in an extremely wide and humiliating fashion to Teofimo Lopez, so although Catterall's opponents were not on the same level as Lopez, one can NOT ignore the fact that CATTERALL WON his TWO fights very convincingly and TAYLOR LOST his ONE fight very widely and was very easily dominated by Teofimo Lopez.
Their first fight
Well, for starters, I was very surprised to see the huge 9-1 underdog Catterall start so quickly and immediately dictate the pace and the tempo of the fight. Catterall did not let the pressure of this big event get to him and he did not appear nervous, and he fought in a very self-assured and confident manner.
He showed in round 1 that the next 11 rounds were seemingly going to be alot closer than anybody expected. Catterall started the fight so well and clearly had Taylor immediately so much out of his rhythm, that I found it hard to believe that Catterall was going to make any glaring mistakes as the fight went on since what he had done in the first round had worked so well. As odd as it was, that fight immediately looked like it was going to be much more competitive than expected as the Undisputed Welterweight Champion Taylor had ALOT of trouble figuring Catterall out in that opening round, and he has never really needed to adapt to a Plan B during his career as his skills alone were always enough to win all his fights against the very best fighters.
One major mental note I made was that Jack Catterall and Josh Taylor were both southpaws and that the situation was clearly benefitting Catterall much more than Taylor as the fact Catterall was also a southpaw was clearly taking away the left hand of Taylor, which is Taylor's Power Punch, and was also keeping all Taylor's other offense in check.
As the fight went on Catterall was showing us that a southpaw fighter could prove difficult for Taylor if the southpaw used his stance to his advantage and fought Taylor in the proper style. Catterall was very quick with his jab, moved alot, and because his jab was coming from his right side, he was successfully able to land that jab on Taylor while diffusing the left hand of Taylor at the same time.
Additionally, Josh Taylor is a pressure fighter and Catterall was able to water down that pressure advantage and take much of it away from Taylor and, as mentioned, he also eliminated the effect of Taylor's power left hand by jabbing Taylor so quickly with his right hand.
As the fight went on it became clear that due to Catterall's style, Taylor missed a large amount of punches in addition to only hitting Catterall's right glove or right arm because of the way Catterall fought him. Taylor's greatest asset has never been defense, but even then, he STILL got hit alot more often in this fight with Catterall than in any of his previous fights.
Taylor did have his moments, of course, but his moments were few and far between and despite Taylor having his sporadic moments, he was expected to do MUCH more against an unknown 9-1 underdog in Catterall, who had never beat anybody of note. Surprisingly, it was Catterall who started the fight dictating the tempo and pacing as if HE was the more experienced fighter, rather than Taylor, and Catterall fought as well as he did at the beginning of the fight throughout the entire fight and even punctuated all of that by knocking Taylor down in the 8th round.
Breaking down the rematch
Okay--- so let's see if we can put something solid together to try to get an idea of what might happen in the rematch..
For starters, all the points I mentioned earlier about how much more effective the southpaw style of Catterall was in fighting the southpaw style of Josh Taylor than vice-versa is a huge player in this fight because in order for Taylor to try to adapt and to correct the mistakes he made in the first fight, he is going to be forced to eliminate some of his strongest assets at the same time and that is a VERY risky trade-off---especially at his age.
As a second point about their comparative success against southpaws??--- Taylor's two toughest fights during that fantastic run in his prime from 2017-2022 were Jack Catterall and Regis Prograis (a few fights before Catterall). Prograis is ALSO a southpaw like Catterall, and though Taylor did beat the very talented Prograis, he certainly had his hands full with Prograis.
Taylor was talented enough to still fight well enough to clearly win, but it is noticeable that an opponent's southpaw stance DOES take away from Taylor's comfort level and his big left hand and with a fighter who uses his jab and moves as fast as Catterall the result was that Taylor often ended up timing Catterall incorrectly, missing his left and leaving himself wide open to be hit as a result, particularly because he tried to land his left while using his customary pressure style of fighting against a fighter whose right hand was busy enough to repeatedly negate the effect of it.
As a directly opposite comparison in regards to fighting southpaws??-- of the TWO fighters that Catterall has fought in 2023 since his first fight with Taylor, the very first fighter was Darragh Foley and Foley is a southpaw who Catterall dominated and virtually shut out. Catterall was not overly impressive in either of his two fights since the Taylor fight, but he was still good enough to clearly win very wide decisions, and one of those was against a southpaw and was within the past year too. That seems to me to be a good way to keep himself sharp and warmed up for this potential Taylor rematch.
In watching Taylor's fights against Catterall and Lopez, it seems clear to me that Taylor visibly gets quite frustrated when things do not go his way and, as a result, he begins to make mistakes, both mentally and physically, and boxing is a sport where cooler heads prevail. In the two fights Taylor has had in which he was TRULY challenged and beaten ( meaning beaten in the eyes of most vs. Catterall)--- he showed his frustration in BOTH fights, and that led to him making bad decisions in the fights, and I do not believe that will be any different in this rematch.
As an example, in the Lopez fight Taylor seemed relaxed throughout the first 4 rounds, which were competitive and essentially even, but as soon as Lopez started timing him in the 5th round and getting into his rhythm, Taylor seemed visibly frustrated throughout the remainder of the fight and he started making mistakes, making bad choices, and at times almost seemed disengaged in the fight and additionally, he also showed that same frustration against Catterall as their fight went on.
Taylor is a fighter who is very used to controlling his fights, getting his way and fighting at his own pace, but the two times the tables were turned on him, he did NOT like it at all, and his effectiveness was greatly reduced due to him not keeping a cool head, which is a detriment for a fighter.
Taylor will need to maintain his cool in this rematch, and I would expect he will try to do that as he knows what to expect now, but that is something that appears to be inherent in him, and I believe he has to watch out that he does not get frustrated against Catterall as I do not expect this entire fight to go the way Taylor wants it too. Taylor would be wise to stay calm, make some small changes and adjust as things happen in the ring rather than losing his cool and sticking to his same game plan with diminishing success as the rounds go on.
Each fighter's current condition
In regards to Taylor's present condition and if he is past his prime and on the down side??---- well, that is a matter of opinion, and in my opinion YES--- Taylor IS past his prime as he has not looked the same for his last 2 fights in a row which encompass 2 full years between 2022 and his upcoming rematch with Catterall on Saturday.
We must also keep in mind that Taylor is 33 1/2 years old now too and he had ALOT of wars against only the very top fighters for 5 full years from 2017 through 2022---and then, in these last 2 years he has fought Catterall and Lopez and has lost both fights ( one officially, and one to the majority of viewers, and has just not looked the same.)
All those consecutive tough fights, back to back to back for 5 years, against the very best fighters can take alot out of a fighter especially as he approaches his mid 30's. We can also not forget all the many amateur fights Taylor had before even beginning his professional career, so it might well be that he is "ring old" at 33 1/2 years old too--- and though that has not been definitively proven, that possibility does have to be entertained.
Catterall, on the other hand, while not having the many inherent gifts that Taylor had in his prime will turn 31 years old in July and has alot less miles on his boxing clock. He has not showed signs of decline since the Taylor fight and despite not looking overly impressive in the two fights he had last year since he fought Taylor, he still pitched two near shutouts in winning wide Unanimous Decisions in them against the two opponents he fought.
So, while nobody is claiming that Jack Catterall is the fighter that Josh Taylor was in his prime, we must consider that in THIS rematch we will be watching a 33 1/2 yr old Taylor, that is coming off his first official loss and two sub-par performances. I can say with assurance that there is NO way Teofimo Lopez would have dominated Taylor in the one-sided fashion he did if Taylor was still in his prime.
Another thing to consider is that although Catterall is not as good as the best Taylor, he still has a style that would have always troubled Taylor as he is fast, patient in the ring, and has plenty of confidence.
As a point of comparison?--- there is not a human being on Planet Earth who would say that Ken Norton was a better fighter than Muhammad Ali or that Norton's legacy would ever come close to what Ali achieved in his career--- BUT??--- Ken Norton had a style that always troubled Ali and they fought three VERY controversial fights that could have gone either way-----so we need to forget all that Taylor has admirably accomplished " in the past" and be completely objective in order to assess this fight more accurately and " at the present time" too.
Other thoughts and variables
Some other variables to consider are the fact that this fight is a must-win for Jack Catterall and Taylor does not need to have the same sense of urgency as Catterall, as Taylor has already tasted life as the Undisputed Welterweight Champion and will still have his past reputation as the "A" side fighter to rely upon if he should lose. He will surely still get a couple more big money matches if he loses, but if Catterall should lose, he would likely be considered a one-trick pony who fought the fight of his life against Taylor and caught Taylor on a bad night, so if Catterall should lose this fight, he would not have the same choices going forward as Taylor.
There is no question that the pressure in this fight is mostly on Catterall as this fight will dictate his future, where-as there was not much pressure on Catterall in their first fight as he was a 9-1 underdog and nothing was expected of him other than to be another notch on Taylor's belt. We need to see if Catterall can fight as effectively in an all-or-nothing fight with ALOT of pressure on him as he did in the first fight when nobody expected anything from him. We must remember that Catterall is likely fighting for his career in this fight, where-as Taylor has already had his HOF career and anything after this is gravy.
The question is will the pressure to win get into Catterall's head and force him to make some costly mistakes, or will Catterall be able to handle that pressure and be as calm and controlled as he was in the first fight with Taylor.
I also can not help feeling that Taylor, especially at his age now, would be better suited to fighting at 147 as a Welterweight if he hopes to continue his career as I believe his taking this fight with Catterall at 140 might be a problem for Taylor. It is my opinion that the Junior Welterweight limit of 140 is too low for him these days as he has not looked as physically strong in his last couple of fights, and that might be due to the weight. If he hopes to fight on after this, win or lose, I believe he should move up to Welterweight as it will suit his "soon to be 34 year old body" better.
Controversial decisions in boxing (as always, a warning)
First of all, Catterall has one MAJOR issue that he needs to control, especially with a referee that is likely going to be siding with the "A" side Josh Taylor, and the issue is that Jack Catterall is historically a rule breaker and has been penalized points a good number of times in the past. He lost a point ' for holding' in his first fight with Josh Taylor and he has also been deducted points in 2 different fights for "hitting a fighter while he was down", in addition to losing points for "hitting the back of his opponent's head" and also for "throwing his opponent".
Catterall can NOT risk getting ANY points deducted in this fight in case the fight should go the distance. He needs to be very careful because the referees and judges have traditionally sided with Taylor in his fights and the referee is not likely to give Catterall a very large amount of leeway in any of these areas and might penalize him without warning as often happens in fights that have a biased referee ( a recent example is Harvey Dock in the Haney/Garcia fight)
We need to consider that Taylor has historically always gotten the benefit of judging generosity even in the embarrassing loss against Lopez in which Taylor only won TWO rounds----and yet two of the judges had scored that obviously humiliating defeat as a victory for Lopez but with totally ABSURD scorecards of 115-113 which is actually an insult to those who watched the fight. Most observers saw Lopez destroy Taylor in humiliating fashion, but those 115-113 cards, even though they were in favor of the rightful winner Lopez ARE reasons to worry about the referee and the judges scoring in Taylor's favor in this rematch.
To look at this same point from the opposite end of the spectrum?? We all know that boxing LOVES its trilogy fights, and the first Taylor/Catterall fight was a very controversial fight in which Taylor got the WIN---so, the way boxing often works is that the ref and the judges will do all they can to slant the rematch of a fight in favor of the fighter who LOST the first one in order to make them each have one victory which enables them to be able to create demand for a TRILOGY fight between them ( trilogy fights have historically made huge profits for boxing).
This is boxing and it is sad that these things even need to be considered in assessing a fight but the fact is that they do. Boxing is sadly and frustratingly more about money than fairness--- and that is just true ----so due to the temptation to have a bigger money trilogy match between these two fighters there is ALSO a solid chance that they might slant the playing field toward Catterall in this fight.
Summary
Albert Einstein's theory of relativity explores time traveling and his theory has intrigued scholars and scientists for years-- however Albert Einstein's theory of relativity has only come up with theories of how to go forward in time, but even the genius of Albert Einstein was NOT able to come up with any theories of how to go BACK in time, and sadly, neither will Josh Taylor be able to figure out a way to go back in time for this rematch against Jack Catterall..
These are not the years 2017-2022--- but, rather, we are in the middle of 2024 now and the great fighter Josh Taylor is 33 1/2 now and he is fighting Jack Catterall who is a talented fighter almost 3 years younger than Taylor and with alot less wear and tear on him than Taylor too. It must also be remembered that Catterall is a quality fighter and would be an "undefeated" fighter too if not for his only loss against Taylor that most everybody thought he won.
After adding all these things up and weighing them in my mind, in regards to the fight itself, I DO think that Josh Taylor IS past his prime and on the down-side. I have also not seen any evidence that Catterall has declined, and though he will not ever be the fighter that Taylor was in his prime, I expect this rematch to be much like the first fight, but with Josh Taylor a bit more diminished in all the important areas that he'll need to be at his best to utilize in order to be able to win.
I also think that Taylor is STILL going to get frustrated in this rematch when things do not go his way, exactly as he has done in the past and to subsequently get impatient and make mistakes.
There is no reason I can think of that this fight should play out too much differently than the first fight with the exception that Catterall should actually be able to be a little more effective because he is still the same fighter as he was in their first encounter whereas I believe Taylor to be a slightly lesser version of the fighter he was in their first fight, which slants the table more in Catterall's favor.
I also expect Catterall to have an easier time dictating the pace and the distance in this rematch than he did the first fight. I do not expect to see many changes in Taylor other than him being just a little bit slower and possibly a bit weaker due to fighting at a weight that I think is too low for him at this age. I do not expect the decline in Taylor to be VERY extreme but I DO expect that a SLIGHT decline will show up in the main areas he will need to be sharp in order to be able to win this rematch over Catterall.
A prediction
It is FINALLY time to look into the Crystal Ball
The image in #CRYSTALBALLBOXING BETTING is coming through clearly now and the Crystal Ball is foreseeing:
JACK CATTERALL will WIN this fight-- and officially get the victory that most felt he should have gotten in the first fight.
I expect the fight to go the distance, and for the scores to once again be much closer than they should be, possibly another Split or Majority decision, but with the difference being that THIS TIME they will score the fight in Catterall's favor.
- Jack Catterall to WIN his rematch with Josh Taylor.
Betting considerations
When this fight was first announced Josh Taylor was the favorite and Jack Catterall was fluctuating between +115 and +130 as the longshot to win on a couple of different sites, and at those odds he would have been a terrific "bet to win " without needing to risk money on his "method of victory" which is always far from a guarantee in ANY fight---- but now??
Catterall is the favorite and his odds are -170 to win and it is no longer a worthwhile bet. Those low odds are just NOT worth placing a large bet on, as the ends don't justify the means.
Some of the more experienced and/or riskier bettors might want to take a risk and add Catterall to win at -170 into a parlay that they like as the odds of -170 can boost a parlay very nicely if they have a few other decent-paying bets in the parlay-----but solely betting Jack Catterall to win at -170 is NOT worth betting on its own anymore.
The best paying basic bet to make in this fight now, given the current odds is:
"Jack Catterall by decision" ( currently at +185)
I believe Taylor will fight better than he did against Lopez but worse than he did against Catterall the last time and will perform somewhere in the middle in this rematch and in my opinion this fight is more likely to go the distance than it is for either fighter to stop the other one.
I also expect the decision to once again be much closer on the cards than it should be as Taylor has the refs and judges very much on his side, but I expect the results in favor of Catterall this time, so in considering all that, and considering the potential for different angles and trying to utilize it in betting ??--- then here now are my BETS straight from the Crystal Ball.
CrystalBall Boxing: two staking strategies
Strategy 1: BASIC BETTING ( the easiest/safest way to make this bet with a worthwhile profit)
- JACK CATTERALL TO WIN BY DECISION at +185 (current odds at time of writing)
- +185 US odds format = approx. 15/8 in fractional odds (2.85 in decimal)
Strategy 2: SHARP BETTING ( this is the way I'd advise more advanced bettors to bet this fight)
You will still make a VERY healthy profit using this method, because this strategy is basing 80% of this method on the same bet strategy being made in the Basic Betting above ----- but here, we're taking a small risk in an attempt at considerably fattening up the profit while minimizing any risk and all while investing the same amount of money.
- JACK CATTERALL TO WIN BY:
- a) DECISION +185
- b) SPLIT DECISION +800 and
- c) MAJORITY DECISION +2000
IMPORTANT NOTE: those above 3 bets MUST ALL be part of this bet and the money MUST be divided up as instructed below. [Editor's note: you can download a free odds convertor to your desktop or mobile here.]
Step 1) Put 80% of your total bet amount on "Jack Catterall to win by Decision" at +185 ( those are the current odds as of this writing)
Step 2) Put 15 % of your total bet amount on "Jack Catterall to win by Split Decision" at +800 ( 8-1 current odds)
AND
Step 3) Put the remaining 5% of your total bet amount on" Jack Catterall to win by Majority Decision" at +2000 ( 20-1 current odds)
NOTE: This betting strategy can substantially increase your payout while still assuring that your 80% main bet will still be profitable for you.
That's a wrap
Good luck, guys -- and remember anything can happen in boxing--- but if this ship should sink, know that I am ALWAYS going down with you guys, but if it should win, then let's all get together somewhere and have a few beers!
Keep on Rocking, Making Money, Betting Smartly and remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose, my friends !!---- All the best, Johnny Wright, USA.
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