Four remain in California, after Alexander Zverev, Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev, and Carlos Alcaraz were victorious in their quarter-final matches at Indian Wells on Thursday.
Sinner Vs Zverev
Sinner and Zverev go toe-to-toe for the 11th time, with a place in a first final for both at Tennis Paradise on the line.
Despite being pushed by Joao Fonseca in the fourth round, Sinner swept aside another bright prospect, Learner Tien, securing a comfortable 6-1, 6-2 victory.
Earlier that day, Zverev also came out victorious in a one-sided match, defeating Arthur Fils 6-2, 6-3. In the process, the German became only the fifth man (joining Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray) to reach the semi-final stage of every Masters 1000 competition.
When you look at the head-to-head between the current and former world No. 2, it’s fairly even. Sinner won the first time they played back in 2020, before Zverev clinched four consecutive victories. The pendulum has since swung; Sinner has triumphed in the last five.
After failing to give Sinner much of a challenge in the 2025 Australian Open final, Zverev took a set in his Vienna Open final defeat to the Italian later that year.
In their last two meetings, Sinner has prevailed in straight sets, and the 1/6 favourite looks set to chalk up another victory against Zverev (4/1) in this one.
For wider odds, bettors could back Sinner at 2-0 (4/7) if they believe there will be a gulf in class between the pair.
It’s difficult to see a world where Zverev comes out on top without dropping a set; a 2-1 win for the Olympic gold medallist is on offer at 8/1 for those backing the underdog.
Alcaraz Vs Medvedev
Carlos Alcaraz defeated a man who has gotten the better of him several times in Cameron Norrie, winning 6-3, 6-4. The Brit, who won Indian Wells in 2021, has defeated the world No. 1 three times and had won their most recent match before last night at the Paris Masters in October, battling back from being a set down. Nevertheless, the 2023 & 2024 champions’ unbeaten run in 2026 continued with a commanding display, as he set up a semi-final meeting with Medvedev.
Jack Draper ultimately ran out of steam in his defeat to the former world No. 1, as his aspirations of defending his title at Indian Wells evaporated. Alcaraz may be happier that it is Medvedev he will face, given the fact that Draper has caused him problems recently, winning two of their previous four meetings and beating him at this competition last year.
Medvedev, on the other hand, last won against Alcaraz (1/5) in 2023, losing the following four they’ve competed in since. Given his blistering form and track record against Medvedev at Indian Wells (defeating him in both the 2023 and 2024 finals), an Alcaraz straight-sets win is most likely here at 8/13.
With six Masters titles behind him, Medvedev (7/2) can succeed at this level, but when you look at Alcaraz’s performances so far, it would take something special for him to reach a third final at this event.
For anyone who thinks Medvedev can do what Arthur Rinderknech did in the third round by taking a set off Alcaraz but failing to progress, Alcaraz at 2-1 is 5/2.
Medvedev to win 2-1 is 7/1, while an unlikely straight-sets victory for the 2021 US Open champion is priced at 9/1.
Current Odds for ATP Indian Wells 2026 Champion
- Carlos Alcaraz – 8/11
- Jannik Sinner – 11/8
- Daniil Medvedev – 14/1
- Alexander Zverev – 20/1
