The main event

Friday 8th March will provide a reality-check for boxing fans around the world as they tune in to another excellent night of boxing from Riyadh.  Curiously billed as Knockout Chaos, with an accompanying promo video showing both Josuha and Ngannou being literally knocked into the stratosphere, the question on everyone's lips is exactly how good is Francis Ngannou under the Marquess Of Queensbury rules.  

In his boxing debut, Ngannou surprised the world with a tremendous performance, not predicted by anyone, going the distance with Tyson Fury and scoring a highlight-reel knockdown in the third round. If you listened to the experts and the casuals alike, you would believe that this was an absolute robbery of a decision, Fury getting the nod after ten rounds. 

However, at SharpBetting, we score the fights we have opinions on, which is very rare among those with such strong opinions about controversial decisions.  We gave three rounds, at a push, to Ngannou.  There is no question he did well, he exceeded expectations, but that is where the platitudes should stop.  This is a common trait in boxing, when a massive underdog does better than expected, the performance is almost always exaggerated.  

Now about the left-hook. Since he crossed over to the pro ranks, AJ has often looked vulnerable to orthodox fighters with strong left-hand power punches. In the MMA game, Francis had a potent left hook.  It was this left-hand that detonated on Alistair Overeem in the octagon back in 2017 and it was the left-hand that shocked the world a few months ago when Fury was dropped in the third round in Riyadh. 

It was also the left-hand that Wladimir Klitschko landed on Joshua at Wembley Stadium in 2017 that nearly won him that fight.  And again,  AJ's ultimate downfall came in 2019 from a position of dominance, seconds after dropping Andy Ruiz, the American scored an all-time shock result, on the back of a left-hook.   The signs are there that this could be another rough night for the Brit.  

However, the question is whether Francis has a greater than 25% chance of upsetting a resurgent Joshua?  For me, the answer is no.  Ngannou should be nearer 8/1 than 3/1, and if Fury had turned up in shape in October, Joshua would surely be 1/10 for this one. 

There is a lot of what-if there, but the fact remains Joshua is a very decent heavyweight. Despite what sometimes seems like nerves when he opens his mouth in the pre-fight buildup, at odds of 1/3, Joshua has to be the play. Too much of the hype about the Fury fight has been priced into this match-up and if Ben Davison has done one thing in camp, it will be making sure AJ is aware of the left-hand danger that Francis carries.  

Despite the gimmick nature of this contest, there is no doubt it has genuine big-fight appeal, and the moments before that first bell will be as good as we have seen in recent years.  However,  the drama of the promo video is unlikely to be imitated in the real world, and it is my opinion that neither man will touch the canvas.

If a focused Joshua meets a similarly focused Ngannou, Joshua should get this done and look good doing so, with a comfortable ten-round decision or via referee intervention in the second half of the contest. 

Chief support

As has become customary on these Saudi bills, this is a stacked card and frankly is different gravy compared to some of the mediocrity that boxing fans were served up by Eddie and Frank in recent years. 

The chief support is a cracker.  While compiling a 26-1-1 resume, Zhilei Zhang has recently become boxing's favourite 40-year-old.   Under the radar for casual fans until putting consecutive against-the-odds stoppage wins together against Joy Joyce in 2023, Zhang is a problem for any of the household names in the division.  Many thought he was unlucky not to get the decision against the highly-ranked Filip Hrgovic in 2022.  

On Friday, he fights Joseph Parker, the New Zealander who, after impressing with a victory over Andy Ruiz in 2016 went on to post some lackluster performances, including a lopsided unanimous decision to Joshua in 2018. After that, he somewhat unfarily gained a reputation as a second-tier contender.  

At just 32 years old, Parker is enjoying a renaissance.  His confidence-boosting stoppage of the overmatched Simon Kean on the Fury-Ngannou undercard was sensational.  He followed that with a big-priced 5/1 upset victory against the returning Deontay Wilder.    

When this fight was announced, Parker was a generously priced 3/1 outsider. You'll do well to find 2/1 odds for him now.  Zhang is a huge test, but he is a 40-year old man with a 20-stone frame to carry over the scheduled 12-rounds.  Parker is underrated in this fight, he will present more movement, speed and athleticism than Zhang faced in his headline-grabbing wins over Joyce.

I think the market has got this one wrong and would have Parker no bigger than 6/4.  I expect this to be even on the cards at the halfway mark, and then to see Parker move through the gears as Zhang's threat starts to fade in the second half of the fight.  Parker by UD.

Who you got?

Let's take a look at the current market prices to see what odds you can get across these two bouts:

  • AJ & ZZ both favourites to win @ 2.00 (even-money in fractional odds)
  • AJ & JP both to win @ 3.90 (3/1)
  • FN & ZZ both to win @ 6.00 (5/1)
  • FN & JP both underdogs to win @ 11.60 (11/1)
  • One Draw @ 13.00 (12/1)
  • Two Draws @ 714.00 (713/1)

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