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Who won the fight?

This fight is one between two people with knockout power. One of them is the 11-0 ( 9 KOs) Moses Itauma, and his opponent is the 21-1 ( 16 KOs) Mike Balogun. The interesting thing here is that when either of these guys win, it is usually in the first couple of rounds. Balogun is a southpaw, and Itauma has already handled a much more talented and proven southpaw Dempsey McKean via a 1st round TKO, so Itauma should not need any adjustment time in this fight to get used to the southpaw stance.

Itauma is a southpaw, and while Balogun has TKOed a few southpaws in his career too, none of them were any better than Grade D level journeymen, or close to the level of Dempsey McKean. That said, if nothing else, the fact that Balogun is also familiar with fighting southpaws, indicates that these two southpaws should not have much trouble adapting to each other's southpaw stance.

One of the main differences between these two fighters is that while Balogun has scored a myriad of early 1 and 2 round stoppages, is that he ALSO has gotten KOed in his ONLY step up in class against Murat Gassiev, and keep in mind, Gassiev had spent almost the entirety of his career fighting as a cruiserweight. In weighing that up, let's consider that the fact Balogun was KOed by a classy Cruiserweight who gained 40 pounds and who had only fought 3 fights against extremely low-level Heavyweights before him and that is not a very positive reflection on Balogun's chin OR on Balogun's ability to step up in class and that is a bad combination for him in this fight against Itauma.

Itauma does not have that much experience yet and is still very young at only 20, but his last fight against the seasoned Dempsey McKean, Itauma did prove that he can easily handle fighters of Balogun's class as most would rate Balogun below McKean in regards to skill level. Itauma also TKOed Mariusz Wach in his fight before McKean in the 2nd round.

Of course, Wach is very old now, and was only ever a high-level journeyman, but Wach has ALOT of extremely high level ring experience. He has fought the likes of Dillian Whyte, Martin Bakole, Jarrell Miller, Hughie Fury, Alexander Povetkin and last but not least, he also fought Vladamir Klitchko. He lost every one of those fights but he DID go the distance with all of them except Jarrel Miller who beat him by TKO in the 9th round, and Martin Bakole who TKOed him in the 10th round. And in his last notable loss against a talented young fighter, Wach went the distance with the very hard hitting Frazer Clarke about a year before he faced Moses Itauma. So Wach has proven his durability and ability to take a punch.

If you look at the level that Wach has fought at during his career, and how he was able to take Frazer Clarke the distance, just a year earlier, the fact that Itauma was able to TKO Wach in 2 rounds is VERY impressive. If one combines that victory with his impressive victory over Dempsey McKean by a TKO in round 1, it is plain to see that Itauma has succeeded in his first steps up, as compared to Balogun who failed in his first step up against Gassiev. And while being an extremely talented fighter, Gassiev was also a natural Cruiserweight who was 40 pounds heavier and was able to easily knockout Balogun in the 2nd round.

Considering those facts, and the fact that Itauma is much faster than Balogun, it is hard to see this fight going very long at all. To further fine tune this fight, let's consider the fact that almost all the wins Balogun has been able to record were 1 and 2 round stoppages over the very lowest-level Heavyweights. That is an indication that all he knows is how to fight and score the knockout, and he is NOT going to be able to change that natural style for this fight.

Translation?--- That means that Balogun will be fighting in his usual style, which is to try to score the early knockout, and that should make him easy to find for Itauma. Balogun's propensity to score early stoppages will likely make this a bit of a shootout, as leopards can not change their spots, but that kind of a fight is Itauma's strong suit. Their past fights indicate that Balogun will be trying to KO/TKO Itauma, just as much as Itauma will be trying to KO/TKO Balogun. The difference is that Itauma's power is proven at a higher level, as is his potential. And Itauma is also the faster fighter and hits harder.

In a likely shoot out like this fight should be if both fighters fight in their usual styles, the faster fighter with the harder punch seems to make this fight's result a foregone conclusion. And the result of this fight does not seem to compute to be anything other than an early Itauma KO or TKO in round 1 or 2, and the pick here is that the KO/TKO happens in Round 1.

Quick Pick

Neat Table
Itauma in Round 17/4   (2.75 decimal odds; +175 US odds)

The prediction and bet suggested here is that Moses Itauma to win in Round ONE by KO/TKO which is currently paying 7/4 (2.75 decimal odds; +175 US odds) on Bet365.

  • note: If one feels they'd like a little more insurance and a little bit of a cushion to fall back on, then they can hedge their bet with the added bet of "Moses Itauma to win in Round TWO at 5/2 (3.50; +250)", and bet those two results in a way that it will be the most profitable for themselves as it does not appear that any online betting sites are offering the prop bet of rounds 1&2 together, as is usually offered in most fights.

But either way, this fight should not logically see the 3rd round unless Itauma greatly underperforms or Bohagun greatly overperforms, and there is no indication that either of those variables should be expected. There are also not many solid reasons to expect that this fight will go into the 3rd round. It seems that it would be quite unexpected for this fight to make it into the 3rd round given both their styles of fighting. In fact, the expectation here is that this fight is not very likely to see the 2nd round through these eyes.  

     

   

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