About Tom Eaton
17 APRIL 2026
Tom has found some 4/1 value to kick-off the weekend's boxing on Friday night...
- Fans of Tom's analysis can use code "te20" to get a 20% discount off the price of a boxing day-pass before this fight on Friday night / Saturday morning.
11 APRIL 2026
The Netflix card
- Tyson Fury is the 81% heavy-favourite at decimal odds of 1.20 (= 1/5; -500) versus Arslanbek Makhmudov, the 19% underdog with odds of 5.00 (= 4/1; +400) for their fight in London.
On both occasions on which Makhmudov has stepped up to world level, not only has he been defeated but he has been unable to score with his jab, scoring with it nine times in four rounds with Kabayel and just thrice in eight rounds against Vianello.
Meanwhile, in just the opening three rounds of his fights with Oleksandr Usyk, who is far harder to hit than Makhmudov, Fury landed his jab 25 times in the first fight and 14 in the second.
Similarly, Fury's awkward style and head movement will make it even tougher for Makhmudov to score with his jab and thus Tyson Fury to land more jabs than the Russian, at 1/3 (bet365), looks to be a steal. [Update: this has been backed into 2/7 so only for those who feel strongly about it.]
With inactivity a major factor in a fight of uncertainties, betting on Fury to out-jab Makhmudov looks to be the safest bet on offer.
- Felix Cash is the 84% heavy-favourite at decimal odds of 1.13 (= 2/15; -750) versus Liam O'Hare, the 16% underdog with odds of 6.00 (= 5/1; +500) on the undercard.
In terms of upsets elsewhere on the bill, Liam O'Hare looks to be of good value against an out-of-sorts and inactive Felix Cash and at 5/1 with bet365 that is a price worth taking on as a single.
Atlantic City
Having a small play on the under in Yan Marcos vs. Dwyke Flemmings Jr.
Under 8.5 at 2.63 looks good value with bet365 considering they’ve only gone the distance four times in a combined 25 fights. Flemmings has never fought beyond 6 rounds and scheduled for his first 10-rounder here.
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4 APRIL 2026
Derek Chisora vs Deontay Wilder
- Derek Chisora is the 63% favourite at decimal odds of 1.53 (= 8/15; -188) versus Deontay Wilder, the 37% underdog with odds of 2.63 (= 13/8; +163) for their fight today in London.
Chisora on points in the big one warrants attention (4.00 decimal odds). I think he’s priced handsomely considering he’s not stopped an opponent since 2019. Fancy Chisora to get the job done because of his superior work rate but 1.5 is quite short so steering clear of Win Betting.
Instead, I think that if Del wins it's a 50/50 as to whether he gets a decision or stops Wilder late. The bookies don’t see it that way, so in my opinion there is definitely value backing Chisora on the cards. Fractional odds of 9/2 (5.5 decimal) for the unanimous decision with PaddyPower also looks to be an attractive price.
- Chisora by Decision @ 3/1
3 APRIL 2026
Pat Brown vs Vasil Ducar
- Pat Brown is the 92% heavy-favourite at decimal odds of 1.05 (= 1/20; -2000) versus Vasil Ducar, the 8% underdog with odds of 12.00 (= 11/1; +1100) for their fight today in Altrincham.
The Over/Under rounds line has been set at 3.5 in this ten-rounder, so very happy to take the over at 1.83 in decimal odds for Brown-Ducar. 5/6 fractional odds... confident with that.
Gone the distance with plenty of big names and almost had Jordan Thompson beat. Ducar has only been stopped once, in round 10 of a fight with Mike Perez.
Pat Brown punches hard but this is only his sixth pro bout; 1.83 for this to go over 3.5 rounds is a great price if you can find it.
If the 3.5 line is no longer available I’d still take over 4.5 at 2.1 decimal (11/10 fractional) available with SkyBet (11:40; 3-Apr) and elsewhere, as well as a small bet on Brown on points (6.00 decimal; 5/1 fractional).
- Total Rounds: Over 4.5 @ 11/10
28 MARCH 2026
Moses Itauma vs Jermaine Franklin
Itauma has gone the distance just twice in his 13 professional bouts to date, with all 11 of his stoppages coming in the second round or sooner and nine of them being a part of his ongoing knockout streak.
Here, he steps up the level of his opposition once again against the ‘989 Assassin’, but there is growing belief that the assassin will come to Manchester without his sword and instead plan on bringing durability rather than devastation.
Whilst many suspect that a negative approach could see Franklin take Itauma into the second half of the contest, I am of the belief that this will make the Michigan-based operator a sitting duck against a superior-skilled sensation such as Itauma.
As a result, I expect Itauma to find the flaws in Franklin’s defence and get the job done early, outshining the likes of ‘AJ’ and Whyte with a performance that gets the world of boxing talking.
- Total Rounds: Under 4.5 @ 8/5
Liam Davies vs Francisco Grandelli
A couple of years ago, Liam Davies was being touted as a super-bantamweight opponent for pound-for-pound superstar Naoya Inoue, but defeat to Shabaz Masoud has resulted to a move up in weight and here he challenges for the EBU European featherweight title.
On his featherweight debut, Davies went the full 12 rounds with Kurt Walker, whilst Grandelli went the distance with Nathaniel Collins, who punches harder than Davies, in his most recent visit to the United Kingdom back in 2024.
Subsequently, Davies by decision has got to be considered as the obvious pick in this one, with Davies possessing the talent to overcome the Italian but probably not the power to end the clash without the held of the judges.
- Davies by Decision or Technical Decision @ Evens
Willy Hutchinson vs. Ezra Taylor
Finally, in what could well be the fight of the night, Willy Hutchinson and Ezra Taylor go toe-to-toe in an intriguing light-heavyweight battle.
Hutchinson has adopted a more aggressive fight style since moving up to 175lbs, but here he collides with a tough, game, undefeated operator in Ezra Taylor, who is well capable of pulling off the upset.
It’s a difficult fight to call and, when considering value, Taylor by decision may well be worth a punt as a single. Although, for any multiple bets, the fight to go the distance is a safer selection.
That being said, Taylor is unproven at this level and will require a career-best performance if he is to get the better of ‘The Hutch Train’, who is more established beyond the domestic light-heavyweight scene.
- Fight to go Distance @ 8/15
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