Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury 2
Scheduled for December 21 as a pre-Christmas present to Boxing Fans, let's take a look at the upcoming rematch between Undisputed Heavyweight Champion Oleksandr Usyk and the former Lineal and WBC Heavyweight Champion Tyson Fury and see what the Crystal Ball is showing us.
From across the pond, it's @jwrightboxing back with the analysis about how this will go down when they face-off again in December.
Time Until Opening Bell:
INTRODUCTION
The first question we must ask ourselves is "Will this rematch actually happen?".
That might turn out to be a much harder question for the Crystal Ball to answer than who the winner of the rematch is going to be.
The fight is signed and there is a contract, but many things can happen in boxing that can change even its most concrete official plans, and there is certainly reason to speculate on whether or not we will actually see this fight.
One of the major reasons for this uncertainty is Tyson Fury, as he is a very unpredictable person, and also has many well-documented personal issues and those types of issues are quite serious. They will not just disappear simply because he has a fight scheduled, as some of his staunchest fans seem to believe.
It seems that many fans do not realize Fury's admitted mental issues, along with his drinking and alleged substance abuse issues are very serious obstacles for him to overcome, just as they are for all people who suffer from the same or similar problems.
There is no way to know which way the wind is going to blow with Tyson Fury, and there are some quite realistic reasons to be concerned about his emotional and physical welfare as the date of this rematch gets closer and gradually approaches.
In light of some of his recent behavior, it is also hard not to wonder about Fury's ability to be able to emotionally deal with his first defeat and the possibility that he might need to overcome those same mental obstacles that stood in the way of his rematch with Klitshcko and led to Fury's two year absence from the ring and his emotional breakdown, during which he reportedly gained somewhere in the vicinity of 130 pounds, added to his already almost 300 pound frame.
So, this #CrystalBallBoxing betting column is going to look into the future at the Usyk vs Fury rematch on the assumption that the fight IS going to happen, and with the trust and hope that Fury is not going to have to live through a repeat of those very awful times in his life.
In addition, this article will be consistently updated as time moves on so we will all always be up-to-date on everything about this highly anticipated fight.
LATEST ODDS UPDATE #1
An update on 7-October-2024 reveals the current odds look like this:
- Usyk @ 4/6 (1.67 decimal odds /// -150 US odds)
- Draw @ 16/1 (17.00 decimal odds /// +1600 US odds)
- Fury @ 13/8 (2.63 decimal odds /// +163 US odds)
Click here to use our latest Odds Converter when flicking between Decimal, Fractional and US Odds formats.
LATEST ODDS UPDATE #2
An update on 8-November-2024 reveals the current odds look like this:
- Usyk @ 8/13 (1.62 decimal odds /// -163 US odds)
- Draw @ 18/1 (19.00 decimal odds /// +1800 US odds)
- Fury @ 8/5 (2.60 decimal odds /// +160 US odds)
Decimal Odds to Probabilities
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THE FIRST FIGHT
As we know, Fury and Usyk fought a very exciting fight in Saudi Arabia in May. As we also know, the fight was to determine the first Undisputed Heavyweight Champion since Lennox Lewis, almost 25 years ago.
The result of that fight is boxing history now, as Usyk won a hard-fought Majority Decision over Tyson Fury and became the Undisputed World Heavyweight Champion.
The fight was not without controversy, however. To some observers, it appeared that rather than allowing the fight to go to the scorecards, the referee should not have gotten involved as he did and that Usyk should have been declared the decisive winner by a knockout in the 9th round. The refereeing of this contest appeared to do Fury a huge favor. By stepping in before Usyk's final blow that would have surely ended the fight with an almost certain knockout of Fury.
Instead of doing what was expected, the referee ended up stepping in, preventing Usyk from throwing what would have been the final punch of the fight, and ruling it a knockdown instead. He then proceeded to give Fury an 8-count, which allowed Fury enough time to get himself somewhat together and the round ended right after that. The referee's decision in that round essentially "prevented" Usyk from landing the last in a series of 20 unanswered power punches.
The referee received a good bit of criticism for his decision, but to Fury's credit, despite being out on his feet while being battered around the ring in that round, he was able to come back in the next round, stay on his feet and finish the fight. In fact, in the eyes of many, Fury won the final round (although I personally scored that round for Usyk).
THE MATCHUP
Let's take a look at each of the fighters, and speculate on the results of the rematch and the potential bets for the rematch. We will discuss the betting specifics when I update this column when all the odds are available and the Crystal Ball will find the very best bets to make the biggest profit, assuming one decides to follow the prediction that it gives us.
Well, we have now all gotten a chance to see the first fight, so for the rematch we have the advantage of having some idea of how Usyk and Fury might approach each other, as well as being able to analyze how they approached each other in the first fight.
The two of them will have learned a bit about each other from the first fight, and will both surely make some adjustments. We now have some specific information that we can use in assessing this rematch since they have already fought once---- and we will see what information the Crystal Ball sends us, what prediction it makes and the best ways it tells us to bet the fight.
TYSON FURY ASSESSMENT
My very first thought is that Tyson Fury was in the best shape he has ever been in for the first Usyk fight. His weight was perfect, he moved well and he fought the fight of his life. He looked as good as he ever has looked until the 8th round, and especially from round 3 until the end of round 7. It was at that point it appeared that he was winning more easily than expected and was going to coast to an easier than expected win.
At the fight's beginning, the fighters were feeling each other out and playing a little bit of boxing chess. There were no huge statements made in the opening couple of rounds, except I felt the one thing that became clear was that Fury's size was not going to be an issue for Usyk as some expected, no matter what direction the rest of the fight took.
They both looked in great shape in those opening rounds and though Usyk is usually a slow starter, he was doing enough to win those opening rounds on my card.
It was in rounds 4-7 that Fury clearly changed the trajectory of the fight, and began to get more comfortable. He was winning all those rounds and looking very dominant in winning them too. Fury's reflexes were fast and he was quite dominant in these middle rounds. He was boxing beautifully, moving well and was able to avoid the majority of Usyk's punches too. But then, something happened: and it's called Round 8…
After Fury dominated rounds 3-7, from round 8 things totally changed and Usyk completely reversed Fury's momentum and began to take over the fight.
Now, in looking at the upcoming rematch I am focusing on quite a number of things that happened in those first 7 rounds of the fight, which were before Usyk started to dominate in round 8 and virtually knocked Fury out in Round 9. I think the first 7-8 rounds were very informative in telling us about the two fighters and a few things stood out to me.
One huge thing that stands out is that I do not think Tyson Fury can improve much on his performance in the first fight.
My reason is that he was as sharp as he has ever been in rounds 4-7 and fought quite well in the first 3 rounds also, but it appeared to me that the reason the fight took a turn towards Usyk when round 8 started was because Fury had given all his very best in those first 7 rounds and had run out of the steam that was necessary to continue fighting at the same pace.
Fury did not slow down and start to become more vulnerable in round 8 as a tactical move or out of choice, as his most ardent supporters believe, but rather he slowed down because he had simply given so much of himself in the earlier rounds. It is very clear that even though his stamina is still quite good, his ability to fight hard for all 12 rounds with no lulls is not what it used to be, which became especially apparent against an opponent who applies constant pressure.
In looking towards the rematch, my feeling is that Fury will need to change his pacing for the fight. In looking back on his choices, it was not wise of Fury to give so much of himself in the first half of the fight against a fighter like Usyk who gets stronger, adapts and becomes more energetic in the second half of his fights.
Fury would be better served to not expend so much energy in order to win some of the early rounds as widely as he did, but rather to save some energy in reserve.
He should try to win the earlier rounds without trying to show off and dominate them as widely as he did in rds 4-7 of the first fight. Those rounds are still going to be scored 10-9, whether he wins in wide, dominant fashion or simply wins them closely.
Fury could have won rds 4-7 in the first fight and expended a lot less energy while winning them too. He would have still won them by the same score of 10-9 on the scorecards, but he would have had enough energy saved in reserve to be more competitive in the second half of the fight.
Usyk usually starts slowly and Fury should try to take advantage of that while also being sure to fight with the intention of staying at a "consistent" pace from the very start of the fight, rather than doing so much in a cluster of 4 rounds. Those rounds did not give him a wider lead on the scorecards, but they did steal some of the energy and stamina he would need to remain as effective in rounds 8-12.
Essentially, that extra sharpness and dominance that Fury had in rounds 4-7 did not help him to win those rounds by more points than if he had paced himself and saved a little more in his tank for later in the fight.
That would have been his best move because that is when Usyk is always at his very best. In this rematch, Fury needs to fight as energetically as possible while being sure to be able to keep that energy consistent and without tapping into his reserve tank too early and as much as he did in the first fight.
I believe part of the reason Fury did so much so early was a psychological move to try to get Usyk to feel overwhelmed, because I have never seen Fury start a fight that fast or even showboat quite so much, as that was out of character, even for Fury.
Those are the types of moves that might have worked against other boxers he has faced, but are not going to work against someone with Usyk's Ring IQ anyway.
Usyk has the highest Ring IQ of any fighter Fury has ever faced, and in fact, Usyk is also the only fighter that can equal and arguably top Fury's own considerable Ring IQ. Fury is aware of that, especially now, and knows that he needs to change his pacing to better suit fighting someone like Usyk.
Fury will also need to stop consciously trying to get the KO as often as he did, particularly with his body shots against Usyk. He needs to just be content to let the fight happen. He would be better served to pick his spots for his more bad-intentioned power-punches and body-punches instead of focusing so much to find ways to throw them.
It was not the best decision for him to try to KO Usyk with so many power punches to the body, as Usyk has never been down and this first fight proves quite clearly that Usyk can take Fury's punches without many issues. Fury has learned that lesson now, and I expect him to box more and to not press himself as much to try to KO Usyk.
It was obvious in their first fight that Fury thought that some of the speculation about Usyk's body being his weak spot is true, but Fury's choice of throwing so many body shots to Usyk did not serve him well in that fight because they had little effect on Usyk.
Usyk got stronger and stronger as the rounds progressed, and in reality, body shots are not Fury's forte, so he should be very smart about when and how he throws them in this rematch.
It is important that Fury utilizes the fact that he can fight effectively from both the orthodox and southpaw stance to his advantage.
To accomplish this, he should try to throw the vast majority of his power shots to Usyk's body from the southpaw stance and NOT from the orthodox stance when he can avoid it, as throwing powerful body shots from the Orthodox stance will leave him much more open and vulnerable to Usyk's power left, as proven at different times in their first fight.
Fury is very tall and for him to effectively hit a smaller man like Usyk with a powerful body shot from the orthodox stance, it will surely leave his right side open and more vulnerable to a powerful left from Usyk, in addition to possibly affecting his own balance too.
However, if Fury throws the vast majority of his powerful body-shots from the southpaw stance he will have his guard free and able to block Usyk's left. He would also be in position to land his right jab on Usyk and to force Usyk's left to hit mostly his arms or to not be able to reach him at all.
Most importantly, because Fury has a 7-inch reach advantage over the much smaller Usyk, he will be able to keep Usyk far enough away while throwing his right jab and intermittently throwing harder body punches. That reach advantage will be very helpful to keep Usyk at more of a distance and make it much more difficult for Usyk to effectively land a power shot-- but that is only IF Fury is throwing the bad-intentioned body-punches from the southpaw position.
In contrast, if he throws his body punches from the orthodox stance Fury will be wide open and his body position will be much closer to Usyk in order to land it. That is surely the reason Fury threw so many orthodox stance body punches in the form of "straight up the middle uppercuts", as that would keep his feet firmly planted and would not affect his body positioning or balance as much as if he had thrown hooks or any different type body punches from the orthodox position.
Fury needs to try to avoid throwing too many bodyshots to Usyk from that orthodox position because he will not have the same important advantages as if he throws them from the southpaw position. I feel sure that is something they will be working on for the rematch.
In general, one must also consider that Fury's punching power is often overrated due to his knockdowns of Wilder and his ultimate KO of Wilder, but in reality, it was more an issue with Wilder's ability to withstand so much punishment. Wilder eventually collapsed from the accumulation of punches Fury hit him with and from sheer exhaustion, rather than because Fury is a massive puncher.
Fury also knows that his punches were not even able to phase Ngannou and he did hit Ngannou flush in that fight too. However, Joshua's punches demolished Ngannou in two rounds. Therefore, in comparing Fury and Joshua, one must conclude that if Fury's power was as reputed, he should have had plenty of time to knock Ngannou down or to knock him out.
The fact is that even though Fury might have been in need of a knockout in the eyes of some observers, he was still not able to even stagger Ngannou, let alone send Ngannou to the canvas.
Fury needs to use his power punches only at the right times and save his strength, as he does not hit as hard as people think-- nor does he hit as hard as maybe he, himself, thinks he does either.
Fury needs to use all his ring IQ in this rematch and be economical with his power punches because swinging and missing as often as he did while hitting arms and/or missing Usyk also drained some of Fury's power as the fight went on last time.
Fury was also against the ropes far too often and it was not by choice either. Usyk was backing him up quite easily and the ropes are not a good place for Fury as that is where Usyk landed the first of his 20 unanswered punches in round 9.
The punch that started that whole barrage happened because Usyk was backing Fury up and Fury was against the ropes. It was also made easier for Usyk to land because Fury's reflexes and defense were not as quick as they were earlier in the fight due to him giving so much and fighting so hard at the fight's beginning.
That slight diminishing of Fury's speed as the fight progressed, coupled with Usyk's increased effectiveness in moving Fury backwards caused Fury to have his back on the ropes. It seemed that was exactly where Usyk was working to position Fury with all his pressure, and as soon as Fury was backed against the ropes is when Usyk caught Fury with the first in that series of unanswered punches that seemingly looked like they had ended the fight.
Fury needs to realize that he is not Muhammad Ali and that he can not take punches on the ropes while trying to preserve energy as Ali successfully did as he got older (and eventually paid a heartbreaking price for too).
The reality is that the ropes are Fury's enemy because Fury is a very chinny fighter which is something Muhammad Ali never could be accused of. And although Fury has a lot of heart and always gets up, he is gradually responding to getting hit with power punches increasingly worse with each passing fight.
Fury has got to stay away from the ropes, and if he is going to be backing up due to Usyk's style of fighting, then he needs to box while he is backing up, and again, he needs to stay off those ropes.
Fury would be well served to also work on his movement and defense more for this rematch, especially against a southpaw with Usyk's style. He should spend less time working on the Kronk style of fighting for this rematch, because defense is going to be a major key for Fury in the rematch.
The facts are that Fury is slower at his age now than he used to be and that he can no longer rely on awkwardness and lightning fast reflexes and needs to put in the work on defense and to concentrate more on not getting hit as often as he does, which would greatly behove Fury due to his increasingly vulnerable chin.
He should also work more on winning rounds with sensibly paced offense for all three minutes of each round --- while also being mindful of his defense to avoid getting hit too often and too flush.
OLEKSANDR USYK ASSESSMENT
Usyk was also in great shape for the first fight with Fury, and his style is quite set in stone despite his adaptability. Usyk has a very high Ring IQ and CAN make necessary adjustments during fights, but his main style of fighting remains intact even when any changes are needed to be made during his fights.
The thing that makes Usyk so effective is that even if someone knows the manner in which he is going to approach them, they are still not able to counter it effectively and his pressure is relentless too, which makes it even harder for the opponent, even though his opponent has an idea what to expect.
In the rematch, Usyk would be well served to not take his foot off the gas after the first few rounds and he should work to continually keep the pressure on Fury. He has felt Fury's punches and he knows how it feels to fight someone of Fury's size now too.
Usyk could greatly benefit from working on trying to time his opponent's body punches. In the rematch he should have his left hand ready because when Fury throws his body punches as he did in the first fight, Fury does leave himself open.
Fury's reflexes are also a little slower now than they were a few years ago as he is older now and that slight slowing in Fury's reflexes would greatly benefit Usyk, especially as Usyk is a southpaw. That very tiny delay after Fury throws body punches has slowed down just enough to give a man of Usyk's size an added split-second to land his signature left from his southpaw stance, which had Fury out on his feet in round 9 last time out.
I feel that spending some time working on timing and quickly countering when Fury throws his body shots and uppercuts is an important thing for Usyk to add into his arsenal a bit more in the rematch.
Usyk does have another inherent advantage in his training camp, in that he is always in shape, lives cleanly and has so much discipline, that he does not have to change any of his personal habits or lifestyle. That relieves a boxer of a tremendous amount of stress when going into training as he does not need to work on cutting weight or all the things an out of shape opponent might need to work on.
He just needs to work solely on his boxing and his training, and can do that without the added stress of having to shed a lot of weight and putting his body through any more stress than necessary.
As I mentioned when discussing Fury, it stands to reason that in order for someone of Fury's size to land big body-shots on someone of Usyk's size, he would likely choose to focus on body-shots that were uppercuts as he mostly did in the first fight. If Fury chose to focus on throwing hooks to the body too often it would cause someone of Fury's size to need to lean or bend just a bit, which could slightly affect his balance, and which could also leave Fury a bit more open and for just a little longer than if he used the uppercut.
Even though his balance will be a bit more stable at those times, Fury has to be careful with throwing those uppercut body punches as he will still leave himself open for that extra brief time. So Usyk might want to work on trying to "time" those kinds of uppercuts and body punches in training and be ready to quickly counter them, preferably with his powerful left.
Usyk might also concentrate on hitting Fury to the body a bit more than he did in the first fight, in order to slow Fury and make it a bit harder for Fury to keep his guard up as the fight goes on and that might be another tool Usyk could use to slow down Fury's defense as the fight progresses.
He should also concentrate on making sure to keep Fury backing up-- as Fury can not box backing up as effectively as he used to for an entire fight anymore. That worked extremely well for Usyk in the first fight and I expect that they will work on that even more in camp and he will be even more effective in backing Fury up in the rematch.
Usyk has also tasted Fury's power now, and knows he can handle it, so I expect they will work on some additional tactics and effective ways that Usyk can be even more aggressive in this rematch. They now know that Fury's power does not present the threat to Usyk as Usyk's power does to Fury.
Usyk does not have to make as many changes as Fury needs to for this rematch, and Usyk just needs to make a few changes and finely tune the things that worked for him in the first fight. They are all part of his natural fighting style too, so these changes will all come quite naturally to Usyk.
It must be considered that with all the discipline, hard work and serious training Fury did to get into peak condition and to look the best he has ever looked in the first 7 rounds of the fight, in addition to ALL the inspiration and determination that drove Fury in quest of his legacy-defining victory, that despite giving it all he had and doing his very best? -- he still lost.
And that is a harsh reality that is not lost on Fury.
Therefore, it needs to be considered a strong possibility that Fury will not be able to improve upon his performance or get into better shape for the rematch.
In contrast, Usyk was more cautious than usual earlier in their fight as he was very respectful of Fury and seemed to be waiting to see what Fury had to offer before settling into his usual rhythm.
Usyk will not have to do that the next time and he will likely settle into his rhythm and start an effective game plan much earlier than in their first fight.
Therefore, it needs to be considered a strong possibility that Usyk willbe able to improve upon his performance for the rematch.
BOXING POLITICS
Another very important thing that needs to be considered, as always, is BOXING POLITICS.
It is quite evident, even from watching the first fight, that Boxing Politics can entirely change the natural outcome of a fight and there is plenty of evidence that Boxing Politics has treated Fury favorably during his career.
He was given a seemingly large amount of freedom in all his fights with Wilder after being knocked down and was seemingly "protected" by the referee in his first fight with Usyk.
The scorecards for the Usyk fight were also too close, in my opinion, because even though the first fight was competitive, Usyk surely was the clear winner of the first fight, so Boxing Politics does need to be considered as possibly playing a part in this rematch.
One must remember that all it takes in competitive fights is for the referee to take a point or two away from one of the fighters for no good reason and/or without giving him any warning, or to get in between the two fighters when one of the fighters starts gaining momentum, or to give slower counts to the fighter #BOXING wants to win if he gets knocked down or to stop a fight quickly if the fighter #BOXING wants to win merely gets a flurry going. And those are just a few of the countless ways the referee (consciously or subconsciously) can greatly affect a fight's outcome.
Then, there are the judges who consistently seem to score fights FAR differently than the rest of the entire world who watched the fight. But the judges have the only scorecards that matter, so Boxing Politics is always a major factor, especially in BIG fights.
In looking at this rematch, one must consider that if the fight goes the distance there is substantial money to be made if Tyson Fury should win, as it would give #BOXING many options to make huge money fights in the future.
It gives #BOXING the option of Fury fighting a third fight with Usyk and #BOXING loves finding ways to have its highly profitable trilogy fights and a trilogy fight between Fury and Usyk would be a huge money-maker.
Since there is no rematch clause after this rematch, #BOXING could also choose to make the #1 bout and most profitable bout on their mind right now. If Tyson Fury wins, he would then be able to fight Anthony Joshua, which is the biggest $$$ fight in boxing.
Money talks when it comes to Boxing, so if Fury wins there are many routes that can be taken with him to make everyone involved boatloads of money.
There is far less money to be made if Usyk wins again, as there would be no excitement for a 3rd fight Fury. If Usyk was to win, that would mean he'd then have beaten Tyson Fury twice, so that would eliminate all the money of a trilogy fight with Tyson Fury as there would simply be no public interest in seeing it again.
In addition there is also far less money in a 3rd fight between Oleksandr Usyk and Anthony Joshua. Usyk has already clearly beaten Anthony Joshua twice so it must be considered that the sport would lose its two biggest and most profitable $$$ fights if Usyk wins this rematch with Fury.
If Usyk wins, I'm sure the Boxing Spin Doctors will try to sell fans that this is a new, more confident Joshua and that he is reborn and rejuvenated. But even if they are successful in gaslighting the public, they are still not going to be able to make even nearly as much money from Joshua having a 3rd Usyk fight, after he lost the first two as they would from a Joshua vs Fury fight.
It is very clear that from a business standpoint, #BOXING stands to make much more money over the next couple of years if Fury wins this rematch.
One must consider that it seems possible that if the rematch is even somewhat competitive and if Fury can keep himself off the canvas and finish the fight on his feet that Fury will get the decision this time.
In addition, there is no rematch clause after this fight and there are endless choices to make huge profits if Tyson Fury beats Oleksandr Usyk.
All of this needs to be weighed heavily when analyzing what might be involved when looking at this rematch, and when we are considering spending our hard-earned money on betting it too.
THE FIGHT
In weighing all we've discussed, I believe Tyson Fury has a lot more things he will need to work on and change for the better in order to win this rematch.
One of the problems for Fury is that of all the problems he needs to change, most of them concern his reflexes. And when a fighter who counts on his reflexes slows down he becomes very vulnerable.
Now, of course, all fighters slow down as they age, but the fighters that relied mainly on their reflexes are the fighters whose careers end up declining quite a bit sooner than fighters whose reflexes were not the main skill that they relied on.
Fury is a talented fighter who relied on his reflexes, speed, quick movements and conditioning when he was at his best. Fury will need to work harder at his age now and he also must live a more disciplined life for as long as he continues fighting because he no longer has the magic of youth that he can rely upon to help him offset his lifestyle.
He must not let his body go as much as he does in between fights and then try to reverse all that damage and turn back the clock in an 8-10 week training camp. History has taught us all that an 8-10 week training camp can not negate months of overeating, alcohol abuse and whatever other negative vices a fighter might be enjoying to excess in between fights.
Nobody in their mid to late 30's can eat, drink and party as much as Fury admitted he does in between fights, and then get serious and train for 8-10 weeks and eliminate all the harm they do when they are not training for a fight, which is the overwhelming majority of the year.
He can not do that and expect to be sharp enough for somebody who always stays in shape, lives cleanly, and is supremely talented too. Especially with Fury being 35 years old and coming off that gruelling trilogy with Deontay Wilder in these last years.
Fury is also in a precarious position going into this rematch as he will have to do a perfect balancing act of his fighting styles. Fury is not able to keep up his original style of boxing for 12 rounds anymore and he has said that himself. He will also not be able to fight in the Kronk style too often against Usyk either, because that style plays right into Usyk's hands.
In addition, we can expect to see Usyk backing Fury up and if Fury is backing up then he physically can not fight in the Kronk style anyway so Fury's choices are limited in this area.
As I see it, Fury needs to successfully walk a tightrope in using both his styles of fighting at the absolutely right times in this rematch. He needs to be boxing at his very best for the majority of the fight and picking the spots for his Kronk style and his power punches when the situation calls for it too.
Fury also has to do this in accordance with a change in his overall pacing for Usyk, because even though his pacing worked against other opponents, it did not work the first time and will not work the next time against Usyk, without him making these adjustments.
Maybe one of the most important things to consider about the rematch is the one very important thing that Fury can not train…
Fury cannot train his chin!
That is a big red flag, as Fury's chin is noticeably more fragile with each passing fight that he has. Fury has as much heart and will as any fighter on the planet, but that is not enough when a fighter gets hit on the button. The only trait left to help a boxer survive once he has been hit on the button is their inherent punch resistance, and punch resistance is not something that can be learned, worked on or trained for. Nor is it Fury's strong suit.
Their first fight made it clear that Usyk can certainly hit Fury hard enough to knock him out and just like the Ngannou fight, it once again showed us that Fury's punch resistance has declined. In fact, it is likely that in 99 times out of 100, that first fight would have ended with Usyk winning by knockout.
What can Fury do to avoid something like that in the rematch? There is not much he can do if he does get hit like that again. But he can work harder on his defense and his timing and be sure to be in top physical shape in order to try to avoid getting hit like that. But there is not much else he can do other than focus more on his defense.
But the fact will still remain that Fury's punch resistance is a weak spot and quite simply Fury can not train his chin.
As compared to Fury, Usyk only has some minor adjustments to make and they will not be as hard for him to make. The biggest difference between them is that Usyk will still be able to fight in his comfort zone after making his adjustments, but Fury will have to stray from his comfort zone a bit if he makes some of the necessary adjustments.
Fury's choices are a bit more limited too. If Fury boxes in his original style, he will win some early rounds but will lose some power later in the fight and will also slow down a bit as the fight goes on, which was not the way it used to be for him when he was younger. That was evident in the first fight with Usyk.
Additionally, if Fury fights in the Kronk style, he would actually be fighting in the style Usyk prefers in his opponents, and play right into Usyk's strengths. So Fury has a very delicate balancing act between the two styles that he must be able to strictly adhere to in the rematch in order to be the most effective he can be.
SUMMARY
I believe that much of the difference in this rematch will come down to the fact that Usyk has few adjustments he needs to make, and that they will not be hard ones for him to make either. Usyk will simply need to fight the way he always fights with a few small changes and to use the knowledge of what he expects from Fury to dictate when to apply those adjustments.
In contrast, Fury has some adjustments he needs to make but they will be more difficult ones for him. Fury will have to make some adjustments to his inherent fighting style if he hopes to capitalize on everything he learned about Usyk during their first fight.
Fury also needs to make adjustments in other areas too in order to compensate for his "ring age", his evident lack of discipline between fights, and for the gradual slowing of his reflexes.
That is a large mountain for Fury to climb as his lifestyle is thoroughly entrenched in him, and because his reflexes are what separated him from the pack and made him the Lineal Heavyweight Champion and one of the top HWs of this era. But Fury's quick reflexes only seem to appear in brief and sporadic intervals in recent years.
It seems a tall order for Fury to be able to consistently depend upon his reflexes for the entirety of a whole fight anymore, especially against the relentless pressure of a fighter like Oleksandr Usyk.
In addition Fury was in the best, most perfect physical condition that he could possibly get into for their first fight, with the hope of defining his career, becoming the Undisputed Heavyweight Champion and firmly cementing his legacy in history. He made adjustments and tried in every way he could to win that fight with Usyk, but the fact remains that he lost that first fight when he was at his very best and after giving all he had of himself.
That is an important thing that even Fury has to know and that we all need to consider when looking ahead to the rematch. In addition, most would even argue that Fury should have lost by knockout in the first fight.
So Fury will need to fight with perfect defense to try to avoid getting hit flush too often as there is nothing else he can do to improve his weakening punch resistance.
In considering everything about this rematch, I do not think that even a prime Fury, at his very best, would have enough answers to solve the puzzle that is Oleksandr Usyk.
Fury has always struggled with southpaws and has also admitted that he struggles with fast, much smaller men and Usyk fits both of those categories perfectly. Those facts alone plus Usyk's natural gifts and style would've been enough to have beaten the very best a prime, younger Tyson Fury would have had to offer in my eyes.
That being said, this last decade has also taken a gradual toll on Fury, and that reality is not going to help this older version of Fury be able to beat a fighter that I do not think he would have beaten even if he was younger.
I have weighed everything in this column as accurately as I can. I do expect Fury to make some changes early in the fight and I expect Usyk to quickly adapt to whatever changes Fury might try to employ. I expect Usyk to have answers for those changes after the first few rounds and from that point on I expect to see the same Fury that we saw in the first fight.
In contrast I do expect to see a sharper and even more effective Usyk in the rematch and I also expect to see Usyk start turning it up a bit earlier in this rematch too.
THE WEIGH-IN
There has been plenty of debate regarding the fluctuating weight of Tyson Fury. Looking at the last five years of official weigh-in numbers for both fighters (Usyk moved up to Heavyweight in 2019), the graph here shows their respective fight-by-fight percentage changes in weight compared to the previous fight.
This is a percentage relative to their individual bodyweights. The difference between Usyk's biggest weight loss and biggest weight gain is only 2%; at Heavyweight, he has been nothing but consistent. Tyson Fury's range of weights has varied considerably in the last five years, resulting in a range of 12% between the biggest weight loss and weight gain. It was noticeable how much weight he had lost for the first fight in May, and it was a massive talking point during fight week.
Fight-week in December promises to bring a similar level of scrutiny.
THE CRYSTAL BALL PREDICTION
It is finally time to look into the Crystal Ball. The image is coming through clearly now and it is foreseeing:
- OLEKSANDR USYK to WIN the fight.
- And to beat Tyson Fury more emphatically in this rematch.
Unless 'Boxing Politics' rears its ugly head in some very controversial and intrusive manner which we sadly have no control over, I struggle to find any reason to believe that Oleksandr Usyk can possibly be beaten by Tyson Fury in this rematch, and I expect Usyk to win even more impressively this next time.
THE BETTING
#CrystalBallBoxing Betting suggestions:
This section will be updated with the "specifics" of the prediction, the manner in which Usyk will win, and how to bet your money for the best possible profit as soon as all the odds for the fight are officially released.
Current UK odds can be found here.
Current US odds can be found here.
So keep an eye on this column as I will be updating as soon as the odds are released and will update when needed in order to keep this topical.
Until the next time, keep on rocking, making money, be smart, practice sharp betting and remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose, my friends.
All the best, Johnny Wright
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