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- Other boxing - all other big-fight analysis
- The Riyadh Card - 22 February 2025
- The Rematch - Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury II
FIGHT-DAY (Dec 21, 2024)
Saturday. It's finally here, fight-day. If you haven't seen Johnny Wright's full analysis of the fight, click here.
And a note from David Hipkin: "We are excited to announce a David's Daily exclusive boxing special- it's available at 4/1 (5.00 decimal) and is certainly a fun bet to cheer on for the big fight".
If you are watching the full undercard (coverage starts 4pm UK time), don't forget to try our live interactive scorecard to judge the fights for yourself.
FIGHT-WEEK DAY 5 (Dec 20, 2024)
Friday. In that article, we also break down the historical official weights of both boxers. Last night, Fury weighed in at 281lbs, a career-high, if that is to be believed (he was 262 in May). Usyk was also a career-high 226lbs (224 in May).
FIGHT-WEEK DAY 4 (Dec 19, 2024)
Thursday. The final press conference was on Thursday evening and after a staredown that lasted nearly 12 minutes (not a typo), the "who won the press conference" discussions got underway online. Like slowly boiling a frog, nothing much happened for the first ten minutes of this peculiarly fascinating staredown. And then, as it came to an end, a side of Tyson Fury was revealed that had been nowhere to be seen in the entire build-up to this promotion...
He was in a very aggressive mode, hurling insults and denigrating Oleksandr Usyk. Usyk, as we are now used to, is impervious to mind-games and schoolyard insults. He essentially just watched his opponent, totally unfazed by Fury's theatrics.
From a psychological observation through my eyes?-- Throughout my years in boxing,I have watched countless big-name fighters sell fights with their individual pre-fight promotional behaviour and it has remained consistent throughout boxing history that those more promotion-oriented fighters usually do the same basic histrionics for each fight, with slight variations, but they sell their fight in essentially the same way.
The one thing I can state as a fact that has happened through history is that when a fighter DRASTICALLY and noticeably changes their theatrics, promotional gimmicks and pre-fight behavior for a fight, they are doing it because they are trying to seem to the opponent like they are also going to be totally different in the ring too, meaning they will fight totally differently and unpredictably because they are behaving in that manner.Historically speaking, these fighters ONLY do that when it is an opponent they are worried about. If they usually talk alot, they will not speak at all, or they will not show up for press conferences, and they will do anything to try to make it seem that something about them has GREATLY changed.
Fury's antics did NOT work on Usyk the last time, so this time he is trying a different aggressive gimmick to sell the fight, and this one appears to be working even less on Usyk-- though it seems to be working in the Boxing Media and the public are mistakenly buying into it too.I will reiterate that those fighters who drastically and noticeably change their theatrics when promoting their fights only do that when they are worried about the opponent. And throughout history??-- I cannot think of ONE time that one of those fighters have ever won their fight with that opponent either.
Fury's aggressive angry new persona is a predictable variation on a theme, and is being done because he is worried about Usyk, and NOT because he is confident.
Fury's aggressive angry new persona is a predictable variation on a theme, and is being done because he is worried about Usyk, and NOT because he is confident. If he was confident, there would be no need for him to try to act like a completely different person. He changed his theatrics for a reason, and my observation is telling me that he is trying to convince HIMSELF of what he is saying more than he is trying to convince Usyk, whose head he just can NOT get into.
Summary of the press conference in my eyes?-- Tyson Fury is fearful of losing again to Usyk, and most importantly, he is fearful of getting knocked out by Usyk ( hence the thick, long , full beard that makes him look like a middle-aged Amish man who should be churning butter). The beard was grown to give Fury the psychological feeling that his chin is protected and shows another huge lack of " true" confidence from Fury. If he was truly confident?---there would be no need for the illegal, Amish-length beard.
My advice to those betting after watching this press conference?--- Please, do NOT let Fury's behavior change your mind about whatever your original bet was going to be, because these theatrics are for his OWN mental survival before this fight, and will have no bearing on the outcome of this fight at all.
FIGHT-WEEK DAY 1 (Dec 16, 2024)
Monday. This is already warming up nicely. Firstly, the most noteworthy news today is Tyson Fury revealing what he expects to weigh on Saturday night. "I'll be about 21 stone for this fight" he claimed here. That is nearly 300lbs.
LATEST THOUGHTS & BETTING ADVICE (Dec 11, 2024)
This is the latest update on the betting stake suggestions as of December 11th 2024. At this time Usyk is at -150 to win again and +285 to win by KO/TKO/DQ depending on the Sportsbook being used, and some will have better prices than others so be sure to look around. The advice here would be to wait a little while longer if you should agree with this assessment of the fight. I expect the odds on Usyk to go lower, as he continues to drift in the betting market.
The graph below shows the implied probability of Usyk winning the fight from the odds movements over the last few weeks leading into fight-week. In the last few days, there has been a wave of support for Fury in the betting markets leading Usyk's price to get bigger.
On 19-December-2024, Usyk was out to 9/10 with AKBets (1.90 decimal odds /// -111 US odds) in the 3-Way Fight Winner market.
Use the Odds Converter to switch from decimal odds to fractional or US odds formats here.
POTENTIAL BOXING POLITICS & IMPLICATIONS
My own newer thoughts on this fight concern the involvement of Boxing Politics as much has changed in the information coming out of Saudi Arabia lately, and AJ has been soundly beaten since the last writing.
I have some serious doubts about Usyk getting the decision if Fury should make it the full 12 rounds.
I have some serious doubts about Usyk getting the decision if Fury should make it the full 12 rounds and manage to stay on his feet throughout the fight, or even get dropped 1-2 times. Turki has MANY plans for Fury, has signed Fury to a contract for some Riyadh fights and Turki has been vocal about his plans for Fury. The thing that I find concerning is that ALL the plans will work MUCH better if Fury is the Heavyweight Champion. It is for that reason that I fear Boxing Politics will try their best to play a role in this fight.
It is also my feeling that Usyk is going to knock Tyson Fury out and eliminate that ugly possibility. But the one problem is that if he doesn't knock him out, I believe the 12 round decision has a good chance of going to Fury this time and I will explain some of my personal reasoning for this.
Turki has stated that he'd like to have Fury and Klitschko fight a rematch and Klitschko had expressed interest in this fight too. The idea Turki has stated that he has for this huge rematch would be promoted as a fight "to give Klitschko the chance to get revenge against his nemesis, Tyson Fury, and mainly to give Klitschko the chance to break Foreman's record and become the oldest person to ever win the World Heavyweight Title".
Now, let that sink in for a while before we continue.
Okay, if you have truly thought about it, then Turki's major selling point for that potential huge rematch with Fury and for Wlad Klitschko to have a chance to break George Foreman's record and become the oldest person to ever win the World's Heavyweight Championship could only be possible in ONE scenario. Tyson Fury would HAVE to be the World's Heavyweight Champion for that to be able to happen, or the whole selling point of the fight disappears. For Wlad Klitschko to have that opportunity for the big Fury rematch, Fury has to beat Usyk to become the Heavyweight Champion again.
Considering that on its own, I can not imagine Turki's judges giving Usyk the decision - unless Usyk drops Fury in at least 3 or 4 rounds, which is surely possible but if this should go 12 rounds, that fact is something to be strongly considered in regards to the decision in this fight. I personally see almost no way Fury can legitimately beat Usyk if this fight goes the distance, but money talks, and so does Turki----and Usyk legitimately beating Fury might not be reflected on those scorecards as much as Turki's future plans are (just like the last fight in the eyes of most).
Turki has also mentioned Fury fighting Dubois to give both Fury and Dubois a chance to become the "Undisputed" World's Heavyweight Champion (as Dubois is the IBF Heavyweight Champion), and that will be a huge moneymaker as they have never fought before.
Usyk has already beaten Dubois and that fight would not get nearly the same interest or make nearly the same money as Fury vs Dubois would. It would also give his big money man, Fury, another chance at the Undisputed Heavyweight Title that he was unable to win against Usyk, but again, in order for that fight to happen and sell in the manner that Turki wants to sell it, Fury would have to be the World Heavyweight Champion.
Do you see the pattern I am fearing? In most of these scenarios that Turki has spoken about, he needs Fury to be the World's Heavyweight Champion in order for them to work out the way he wants,
The recent talk of AJ fighting Wilder or a tune-up next summer is enough to rule out Turki's plans for an AJ /Fury fight, in the near future. Turki has many other fights to make that are just as lucrative now but in the Heavyweight world, they all revolve around Fury and his being the Heavyweight Champion because Turki had originally wanted AJ to fight Fury for the World's Heavyweight Championship. Though there would surely be interest otherwise, only not quite as much.
The other business fact is that Joshua did himself no favors by losing as badly as he did to Dubois so it has put a temporary cloud over the money to be made by his fight with Fury.
The other business fact is that AJ did himself no favors by losing as badly as he did to Dubois so it has put a temporary cloud over the money to be made by his fight with Fury, which is why AJ is not fighting until next summer. So that fight is off the table and after his loss to Dubois, that fight will never make the same money it could have, even though it would still make a lot of money, but there are many other fights now that are equally lucrative now that AJ was soundly beaten by Dubois.
In addition, there would also be the possibility of a huge trilogy with Usyk if Fury was to win, but somehow and for some " seemingly political" reason, there is NO rematch clause in this fight, which tells us that if Fury wins, he is being given a free pass to avoid Usyk in a trilogy fight because he can make just as much money elsewhere--- and if he gets lucky and somehow wins, and has a free pass to avoid Usyk, he WILL avoid Usyk.
And so with all these big money options revolving around Fury winning and becoming the champion, it is hard for me to believe that if this fight should somehow go to the cards that Usyk has any chance of getting a fair shake(he did not get a fair shake last time as he won that fight clearly and widely and should have gotten a knockout in round 9 but how did it end up?? -- It ended up as a 1 point split decision and Usyk only got the decision because of that knockdown and one judge STILL gave it to Fury, so the politics needs to be heavily weighed here, especially in regards to the decision if the fight goes 12 rounds.
Things have changed since AJ got dismantled by Daniel Dubois and the first writing of this column. The Fury/AJ fight is not seemingly the one that is foremost on Turki's mind, at this moment, anyway as he has so many other options, But the issue is that all those options include FURY, and NOT USYK, so imo, it is inarguable that ALL the HUGE money to be made here can only happen if Fury wins this rematch and gets those titles back, and I reluctantly have to believe that Boxing Politics will do everything possible to try to make that happen, (even worse than they clearly did in the first fight)
Please, again, do notice that in all of those scenarios involving Turki there is not ONE that Usyk's name is mentioned in, as they even have no rematch clause if Fury should win.
In weighing all these facts I mentioned, which happened after I wrote the original preview, it seems obvious to me that Turki would clearly much prefer a Fury victory in this rematch. He has also that contract with Fury, but not with Usyk, so that also says a lot too. So, as I see it, Usyk needs to either win every round big and score a few knockdowns or he will need a knockout to win this fight.
On the positive side of the Crystal Ball's reflection, it reflects that Usyk IS going to get the knockout, somewhere in the middle of the fight and he will end the chance of a robbery in Fury's favor.
That being said, before betting our money, we need to keep in mind that Turki virtually runs boxing these days, so I find it hard to imagine a scenario where this fight, of all fights could go to the scorecards and Fury would not get the decision. But on the chance that I am somehow wrong despite all these facts, I feel very confident that Usyk will surely "deserve" a wide victory if the fight should go to the scorecards. In addition, the Crystal Ball does reflect Usyk winning by knockout, so this is all stuff we need to weigh before betting our money on this fight.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN & BETTING
The Crystal Ball reflects that Fury will NOT be able to stay on his feet or be competitive this time. I also feel that even if Fury does not get knocked out, he WILL get knocked down more than once in this fight, which increases Usyk's chance of getting a fair decision in a fight in which he will have almost every other outside variable against him, so all told?--- I see the chances of Usyk getting a decision over Fury at only about 60% for Usyk and 40% Fury because of Boxing Politics, otherwise I'd have it at 90% -10% for Usyk to take the decision in regards to what I actually expect to happen in the ring if the fight should go 12 rounds.
On the other side of the coin, I see the possibility of a knockout in this fight as MUCH higher than in the first fight. It seems that Fury knows he can not go the 12 rounds and stay strong enough to win. I think the rumors of Fury coming into this fight heavier, and trying to use his size and power over Usyk are very believable and even likely. I have heard rumors Fury will be coming in at about 275 pounds, and while I think a knockout is Fury's only chance at victory, I think it is a very small chance and that it will end up being a huge mistake as it plays right into Usyk's hands. And let's remember Fury is far from a stranger to the canvas and seems to be handling punches worse and worse as time goes on.
Fury knows his only true chance to legitimately win this fight is to try to use his size to tire Usyk, knock Usyk out or to wear Usyk down enough to stop him late in the fight.
I believe Fury knows his only true chance to legitimately win this fight is to try to use his size to tire Usyk, knock Usyk out or to wear Usyk down enough to stop him late in the fight. It's Fury's best & only " legitimate" chance to win as the Crystal Ball reflects this fight. I do not think that will work at all, but rather Fury realizes that he will need to make a " Hail Mary "pass to legitimately win this fight. I expect Usyk will be the one to knock Fury out in this fight as I expect this rematch to be paced and fought quite differently than the first right. I see all of this playing into Usyk's hands as Usyk can adjust to anything and Fury does not have as many options to fall back on, due to Usyk's far superior physical shape and conditioning.
So, in THIS category, I would put the chances of Usyk winning by KO/TKO at 85% and Fury by TKO/KO at 15%. I think Fury would have to get lucky to knock Usyk out, however, in contrast, I think Usyk has the ability to methodically make his moves, pick his spots, intentionally take advantage of Fury's increasingly shaky chin and knock him out. ( assuming the referee allows such a thing to even happen).
If we look at ALL those possibilities as seen through the Crystal Ball then for those supporting Usyk, my advice would be to wait and watch the odds. I think the odds will get lower as it gets closer to the fight, especially if Fury weighs in heavy, as his fans will falsely believe that his extra weight will translate into a Fury knockout-- so I'd advise all Usyk fans to wait and keep a close eye on the odds.
THE BASIC BETTING
We are taking all the above into consideration and will be using the odds as they are TODAY, in addition to considering all the recent political changes which are plentiful since this article was first written. And if you should agree about the likelihood of Boxing Politics being involved in this fight, especially if it should it go to the cards?--- then I think the Usyk bettor has two sensible basic bets to make in this fight, and it would need to be up to what each individual wants to bet, and what type of ROI they are looking for.
- #1) "Usyk To Win" at -150 (the safest Usyk bet which covers all methods of victory if Usyk wins, but the ROI might be too low for many individuals) or
- #2) " Usyk by KO/TKO" at +285 ( a more risky bet as it only covers Usyk if he wins by KO/TKO but it has a MUCH higher ROI)
To put it in perspective, and not as a suggested bet, let's use a mythical $100 and look at the difference in payouts if someone were to place a mythical bet on these above bets (which are the 'current' odds as of December 11th, 2024)
- Bet #1) If someone were to make Bet #1 at the odds above, they would make a profit of $50 and win a total of $150 back (including their investment)
- Bet #2) If someone were to make Bet #2 at the odds above, they would make a profit of $285 and win a total of $385 back (including their investment)
As you can see, for that same $100 bet, if someone made bet #2 above, they would get back a $235 BIGGER profit than bet #1, but would be taking the risk of losing their investment entirely if Usyk should win by a decision and not a knockout.
SUGGESTED STAKING STRATEGY
As it stands, I would suggest the following staking strategy for those who would like less risk, and a taste of both worlds. At this moment, the numbers are not quite good enough to make the following strategy as lucrative as it could be, but just a small change improving Usyk's price on either the " win" or the "KO/TKO" bets could fatten up the ROI a good bit.
As an example---- we are going to divide our whole investment into percentages , and again $100 is not a recommended bet, but I am using that number to make the following easier to understand, so we are going to be using that same mythical $100 and the below percentages to divide up the #Crystal Ball's suggested staking strategy.
- Bet #1) 75% of the total investment on "Usyk to Win" at -150------- and the bettor would make a profit of $50 on that 75% investment and get back a total return of $125
- Bet #2) 25% of the total investment on Usyk to win by KO/TKO at +285,------ and the bettor would automatically win BOTH bets.
On Bet #2 the bettor would get back $96.25 on that $25 bet and they would ALSO win Bet #1 and get back $125 on the $75 invested on Bet #1 which would be a total return of $221.25 and a profit of $121.25 on the $100 investment.
If Usyk was to win by decision and only Bet #1 won but Bet #2 lost?--- they would STILL make a profit on Bet #1 and get back a total of $125 on their entire $100 investment, which is still a $25 profit---- and in comparison, is only $25 less than they'd get back if they had put their whole $100 on "Usyk To Win".
In addition, by using this strategy they are giving themselves a chance at getting back $221.25 if bet #2 wins----and they STILL get $125 back and make a profit of $25 in addition to winning back their $100 investment even if Bet #2 is a losing bet.
Please keep in mind that a $125 return in this staking strategy is only $25 less than if they put the entire $100 on " Usyk to win"----- and using this staking strategy also affords the bettor the chance at a $221.25 return, on that same $100 investment if Usyk scores the knockout too. ( which is the Crystal Ball's projection)
In contrast, betting the whole $100 on "Usyk to win" would pay $150 total on the entire investment ( with no chance for a higher payout if he scores the knockout).
At this moment, those are the Crystal Ball's best options, and it is all up to the individual which of these options suits them the best, assuming any of them do.
The issue at this time is that this method of staking works increasingly better and can be a lot more lucrative if the odds on Usyk to win and also his odds to KO/TKO Fury were lower and paying better.
It is my feeling that those odds will get better for those betting Usyk as it gets closer to fight time. If Fury weighs in heavy, I would expect it to lower the odds on Usyk, with Fury fans flocking to bet on Fury, falsely thinking the extra weight will guarantee a knockout. I would suggest waiting until that time , and watching the odds, and I will do one final update after the weigh-in and include all the numbers as I did here.
If someone wants to place their bets now??---then the above are the suggested staking strategies to mull over. Everyone will have to decide if they 1) want a high ROI with a risk of losing entirely 2) want the lower ROI with less risk of losing entirely or 3) want a combination of the two with a profit made on both bets and an ROI in the middle, and with less chance of losing entirely.
I expect Usyk to be very aggressive in this fight, to win emphatically by a KO/TKO and retain his heavyweight championship.
I divided up the stakes up in the special manner I did to suit the overall #CrystalBallBoxing prediction and because it is my feeling that if this fight goes to the cards, Usyk stands a solid chance of getting robbed. That being said, I expect Usyk to be very aggressive in this fight, especially knowing that the odds are stacked against him, and I am expecting Usyk to win emphatically and by a KO/TKO and retain his heavyweight championship.
My advice to those who agree with this type of stake strategy would be to wait a while longer as the odds on Usyk HAVE been dropping, and he might be even money or even an underdog after the weigh-in--- which is not likely but IS possible---and I will be back with a final stakes strategy and the numbers after the weigh-in and any odds changes. Good Luck Guys and we'll talk again before the fight with some final numbers.
Johnny Wright, USA
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Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury; 18 May 2024. The 9th Round.
