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Introduction
On 27 November 2024, it was announced in several media circles that the Riyadh card at the Kingdom Arena on 22nd February 2025 is set to be another absolute banger. In this article, we take a look at some of the mouthwatering bouts that have been proposed and we examine the opening betting lines as soon as they become available.
A few days later, on 3 December 2024, it's official. In February we will be treated to one of the highest-quality cards in recent memory. When we say boxing is once again a growth sport, we are not joking.
Time Until Main Event:
The line-up
- Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol II
- Daniel Dubois vs Joseph Parker [fight off; 20:00 20-Feb-2025]
- Joseph Parker vs Martin Bakole
- Shakur Stevenson vs Floyd Schofield [fight off; 8:00 19-Feb-2025]
- Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley
- Carlos Adames vs Hamzah Sheeraz
- Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Israil Madrimov
- Joshua Buatsi vs Callum Smith
- Zhilei Zhang vs Agit Kabayel
Latest Moneylines (draw-no-bet)
| powered by SharpBetting.co.uk | Opening Odds | Latest [22-Feb-2025] | Implied Probability | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxer A | Boxer B | A | B | A | B | A | B |
If you want to convert 3-Way Fight Winner (Win-Lose-Draw) odds to a Moneyline (draw-no-bet), click here. Use the Odds Converter to switch from decimal odds to fractional or US odds formats here.
The SharpBetting Special
We've managed to get our visitors a great price of 4.00 (3/1 fractional odds) for this double if you like the sound of The SharpBetting Special this weekend.
- (1) Hamzah Sheeraz to win by KO/TKO/DQ, &
- (2) Shakur Stevenson to win in Under 9.5 Rounds
The Wisdom of The Crowd
We invited a small number of shrewd boxing people, with a history of picking the fights, to take part in a poll for The Last Crescendo. The results, updated regularly throughout fight-week, are shown here.
- Note: the pie chart shows how likely (e.g. 33%) the fight is to go the distance, based on votes in our poll.
Kelly Criterion staking-strategy based on The Crowd
According to these crowd-sourced opinions [15:00 22-Feb-2025], using the Kelly Criterion staking plan, a bankroll of £100 would be split across the original five fights and the latest odds (MoneyLine and Distance) like this, ranked from high-to-low confidence:
| Bet | Bout | Pick |
| 1 | Joshua Buatsi vs Callum Smith | Distance: Yes @ 1.44 for £27 (to win £12) |
| 2 | Carlos Adames vs Hamzah Sheeraz | Distance: No @ 1.61 for £23 (to win £14) |
| 3 | Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol II | Dmitry Bivol @ 2 for £19 (to win £19) |
| 4 | Carlos Adames vs Hamzah Sheeraz | Hamzah Sheeraz @ 1.28 for £18 (to win £5) |
| 5 | Zhilei Zhang vs Agit Kabayel | Agit Kabayel @ 1.53 for £9 (to win £5) |
| 6 | Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Israil Madrimov | Israil Madrimov @ 1.9 for £3 (to win £3) |
| 7 | Joshua Buatsi vs Callum Smith | MoneyLine: no bet |
| 8 | Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol II | Distance: no bet |
| 9 | Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Israil Madrimov | Distance: no bet |
| 10 | Zhilei Zhang vs Agit Kabayel | Distance: no bet |
The Crowd
Main event
It will be a short turnaround since their historic fight in October, but Artur Beterbiev is lined up to defend his undisputed light heavyweight championship titles in an immediate rematch against Dmitry Bivol. Normally, such a fight would take longer to be made, but with the rewards that are on the table for these Saudi bills, we are getting the instant rematch in February. Given the controversy around their first contest, this makes another brilliant fight from a betting point of view. At the top of a stellar card, this is a worthy headliner.
Chief support
The card also sees Daniel Dubois make a second defense of his IBF heavyweight title against Joseph Parker, following his upset win over Anthony Joshua that was picked here by Johnny Wright back in September 2024.
This fight is certain to divide opinions and it makes for a fascinating betting event.
On the heavyweight scene over the last year or two, both Dubois and Parker have had incredibly impressive runs, enjoying multiple against-the-odds upset victories against some of the division's best men. This fight is certain to divide opinions and it makes for a fascinating betting event.
Everyone loves the heavyweights
Staying with the heavyweights, it's an intriguing cross-roads fight between 32-year-old Agit Kabayel and 40-something Zhilei Zhang. Kabayel is undefeated in 25, with 17 wins inside the distance. Not yet a household name, he is highly ranked and going back to the start of 2022 he is enjoying a string of stoppage wins. His last four opponents have lasted an average of just 12 minutes with him. Zhang, known for his resilience, will look to stop that trend and it will be intriguing to see how likely the odds-makers believe he is to do that.
BetVictor's odds-makers were the first to take a view on this one, offering odds of 7/4 against Agit Kabayel (2.75 decimal odds).
Latest selections:
Anything above even-money seemed tempting when this fight was announced, so this definitely makes the grade for those interested in taking an early position 11 weeks away from the opening bell.
- Back Kabayel to Win @ 2.75
Rest of the card
We had been teased with the idea of IBF welterweight champion Jaron Ennis (33 and 0, 29 inside) taking on Vergil Ortiz Jr (22 and 0, 21 inside) for a battle of undefeated. Instead we have Ortiz vs Israil Madrimov (10 and 1, 7 inside).
As had been speculated, the highly-touted Hamzah Sheeraz is getting his first shot at a middleweight title - Carlos Adames's WBC strap on the line. With Shakur Stevenson originally slated to take on Floyd Schofield and an intriguing all-British affair between Joshua Buatsi vs Callum Smith, this card cannot come around soon enough.
Update [19 February]: with Floyd Schofield having to withdraw from the card midway through fight-week, Josh Padley got the call as late replacement. Despite the sportsbooks odds suggesting that there is nearly a 40% chance that Padley can make it into the final-quarter of the contest, we can see an early intervention from the referee in this one.
Latest selections:
- Back Stevenson to Win in Under 9.5 Rounds @ 1.75
- (This bet can be done using the Boxing Bet Builder with Bet365)
Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol II
On 3-Dec-2024, bet365 excelled themselves by getting opening prices on their site within a few hours of the Riyadh card being officially announced. They open with Beterbiev a slight favourite to repeat his October win (1.80 decimal odds). Bivol is an even-money outsider (2.00 decimal odds) and to call him a live dog is an understatement.
Latest selections:
The Betfair Sportsbook is expecting a repeat of October's fight outcome, installing Beterbiev as a 1.73 favourite (8/11 fractional, -138 US odds). Early advice is to take the Bivol price of 2.10 in decimal odds (11/10 fractional, +110 US odds), available on 3-Dec-2024. This is the type of rematch that looks destined to be a near-perfect 50:50 in the betting come fight week.
- Back Bivol to Win @ 2.10
- (Remember in close betting fights our advice is always to cover the draw)
If you don't use the Betfair Sportsbook, there are a few other books offering the same 11/10 Bivol price in the 3-Way fight outcome market (at time of writing).
A week after the main markets came out, the Method Of Victory prices entered the market. Bivol is a best-price 10/1 (11.00 in decimal odds) to win the fight inside the distance. This would be a small bet to support the main bet of the 11/10 about Bivol winning in the main fight-winner betting market.
- Back Bivol to Win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 11.00
This strategy is exactly what was outlined for the first fight, and we felt it was a great one then. The difference now is that Beterbiev is that bit older, and the odds are that bit better...
In terms of how to split these stakes, a sensible suggestion would be to put 10% of the stake size for the main market on the method of victory market. In this scenario, if £100 was bet originally on Bivol to Win at 2.10, then a further £10 would be bet now on Bivol by KO, TKO or DQ at 11.00, for a total stake of £110. (As stated, to be prudent the draw should also be covered.)
Daniel Dubois vs Joseph Parker
The opening lines [27-Nov-2024]
There were no UK sportsbooks offering odds on Dubois vs Parker when this was first published [27 November 2024] but there were some opening lines quoted in America, where Bovada had Parker (somewhat surprisingly) as a slight favourite.
- Daniel Dubois: +100 US MoneyLine (2.00 decimal = even-money fractional)
- Joseph Parker: -130 US MoneyLine (1.77 decimal = almost 4/5 fractional)
A few days later and Bovado had flipped favourites:
- Daniel Dubois: -150 US MoneyLine (1.67 decimal = 4/6 fractional)
- Joseph Parker: +120 US MoneyLine (2.20 decimal = 6/5 fractional)
Use the SharpBetting odds converter to flick between different odds formats.
Latest betting odds [3-Dec-2024]
Bet365 were the first out of the blocks to offer odds in the UK. On 3 December 2024 they opened up the betting (draw-no-bet) with Dubois at 1.44 (-227 US odds format) and Parker at 2.75 (+175 US odds).
The Betfair Sportsbook also published their early prices and they are even stronger with their favouritsm for Dubois with 1.40 decimal odds (2/5 fractional, -250 US odds).
The Parker price of 2.88 in decimal odds (15/8 fractional, +188 US odds) looks like the standout pick of these prices right now but we will come back to this closer to the fight if we think it is worth considering further.
Update [20 February]: On Thursday evening, Daniel Dubois was forced to withdraw from the bill just 24 hours after Floyd Schofield had done the same. Within a matter of hours, Martin Bakole had stepped up and prices were made available with Parker installed as a 1.50 favourite.
Total Overround: 0%
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