Anthony Joshua (28-3-0) vs Daniel Dubois (21-2-0)

A Guessing Game:  Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois 

Anthony Joshua (28-3, 25 KOs) challenges Daniel Dubois (21-2, 20 KOs) for the IBF world heavyweight title at Wembley Stadium in London on 21 September 2024. Latest reports are saying that nearly 100,000 tickets have been sold for this huge night of boxing that could determine where AJ ends up in the pantheon of this era.

In this new series of #WrightOrWrong deep-dives, Johnny Wright examines the matchups and betting angles of the contests where the imponderables outweigh the tangibles.  This AJ vs DD fight just days away is a perfect place to start;  if anyone says they know what will happen when the first bell rings, they need to read this. 

Current Odds [9-September-2024]

The current odds (for UK sportsbooks) are as follows:

• AJ  2/7  (1.29 decimal; -350 US odds)
• Draw  25/1  (26.00 decimal; +2500 US odds)
• DD  7/2  (4.50 decimal; +350 US odds)

Will the fight go the distance?

• Yes  4/1
• No  1/5

How will the fight be won?

• AJ by KO/TKO/DQ  4/9
• DD by KO/TKO/DQ 5/1
• AJ by Decision/Technical Decision  11/2
•  DD by Decision/Technical Decision  14/1

Click this link for a look at the latest betting lines with the US sportsbooks.

Best of the Wembley Stadium undercard: click here.

Introduction: Wright or Wrong?

Hi Guys-- and welcome to this premier article of a new column called #WrightOrWrong.

In this column we will be discussing the big fights that we might not have strong opinions on, that we keep changing our minds about, or that we would just like to bet for fun, excitement and hopefully for a nice profit too. It is this column's intent to find odds that can justify making small bets with big payouts for fun and entertainment without those bets needing to be complete " Hail Mary" bets-- but rather, being bets that are decent possibilities. Hopefully something we discuss in these columns will lead some of you to better profits after weighing the #WrightOrWrong "3 Ps" which are:

1) Probability

2) Percentage, and

3) Payouts

-- and incorporating those 3 Ps in whatever way you personally perceive them into your own betting choices.

We will weigh thoughts about each of the fights we dissect by giving a breakdown of some of the lesser analyzed & somewhat overlooked aspects of each fight and fighter. Many of the aspects of the fights we analyze might not be considered by the average bettor and/or might not be weighed heavily enough. In fact, some of the stuff we discuss might be completely overlooked by some bettors, possibly due to some bettors being swayed by Boxing Media propaganda or the consistent ramblings of many clueless online casuals.

After thoroughly dissecting the fights, this column will then use the resulting possibilities we come up with to find the highest paying odds and least risky bets that justify us placing a bet on them. It is my hope that some fans might stumble upon something in these #WrightOrWrong columns that might help them view these fights a bit more broadly, and perhaps add a little extra perspective that they might not have considered when betting these fights.

This column will be looking at the fights inside out and from the bottom up. It will be "reading between the lines" and "thinking outside the box" and we'll be completely ignoring the self-serving narratives that the Boxing Media gaslights many fans into believing. I'd also like to remind everyone that the Boxing Media is a business with their own agenda and their own reasons for what they sell fans as "reality". But their agenda is for their own monetary gain and for purely self-serving reasons. It is for that reason that this column ignores the Boxing Media's entire "alternate reality" which will help us all keep our minds open to our OWN true feelings and instincts, whether or not we are #WrightOrWrong.

We are going to cover alot of ground here so we can bet and have some fun with it----  so let's get started !!

Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois -- Who wants it more?

The first issue for me with the AJ/Dubois fight is trying to decide what needs to be weighed the most to try to see if we can figure out the most logical outcome. Do we weigh the fighter's strengths, the fighter's flaws, or do we take an honest look at their supposed rejuvenations and see what we think is real and what has been media manufactured ?? This is not normally an issue, but with two popular fighters like AJ and Dubois who are both in the process of rebuilding their brand and careers, who are both Boxing Media darlings, and who are also both heavily promoted, we will need to do alot of reading in between the lines and thinking outside the box for this fight and we will not be too fast to jump to any conclusions on the results yet. 

I think we already know the strengths of both fighters and all have our opinions on that, so we can see their attributes pretty clearly. So, let's consider their weaknesses first. After a good look at that, then we can look at the truth about where we think they really rate in their supposed fighting rebirths and rejuvenations and not be too fast to embrace the Boxing Media narratives, so let's take a look.

In my eyes, in Joshua and Dubois we have TWO fighters who both have very weak mindsets when compared to those at the very top of the heavyweight hierarchy. They have mentally given up in different ways in a few of their fights. It is my opinion that when a fighter needs to have his confidence "rebuilt" from the ground up by all the people around him, it leaves alot of questions unanswered about how they will deal with " true" adversity, no matter how well that confidence is seemingly rebuilt or how strongly the Boxing Media tells us it is rebuilt.

As an analogy, if you drop a vase and it breaks into two pieces, you can glue it together and make the vase " look" the exact same. But the fact remains that the vase is eventually much more likely to crack in that same exact spot than if it had never been broken in two in the first place. That fact holds true that no matter how good the vase might seem put back together after it is first repaired. The vase will initially be handled with care, until everyone feels increasingly confident that the vase will not break in that same spot again. There is a good chance that it never will break in that same spot again, of course, but that risk is always there. Nobody can ever be certain because the only thing holding that vase together is an invisible glue. And the more that vase gets moved around, the more it gets used, and with the more time that passes, the more the odds gradually increase that the vase might break in that same spot again.

I see that analogy as quite similar in the cases of BOTH these fighters as they have both been handled very carefully, and that applies even more in the case of Joshua. In looking at Joshua and Dubois, their past confidence issues might seem to be in the past as they have both gotten back to the top level now, but I have not forgotten their past behaviors. I simply do not have complete confidence in how well they might handle any difficult future situations in the ring, nor does it make their performances against other top fighters remotely predictable to me.

Daniel Dubois

Trying to look into the psyche of Daniel Dubois to try to figure out his mindset heading into this specific match is like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube after drinking 12 pints of Guinness. He has taken knees at some very odd and unexpected times in past fights and was knocked out by a jab against Usyk. Dubois also took a knee against Joe Joyce in a fight he was clearly winning, although they claimed he got injured in that fight. In truth, Dubois seemed to have just psychologically given up in BOTH those fights.

Dubois ALSO took a knee THREE times against Kevin Lerena in the first round of a fight in which he was a huge favorite. Dubois was seemingly trying to quit or was doing something I've really never seen a fighter do before but the referee would NOT stop the fight. Whatever Dubois was or wasn't trying to do in that fight is still a mystery to me, but the fact will always remain that Dubois was a complete embarrassment in that fight against a journeyman. The Boxing Media did not hold Dublois accountable for that behavior AT ALL, and as a result, many boxing fans have totally forgotten about it---- BUT it happened--- and not that long ago, either. 

Now, we all have to consider that the type of behavior that Dubois has exhibited in his fights comes from somewhere deep inside a fighter. It is NOT something that can just be swept under the rug, as the Boxing Media happily and quite successfully did. However, this column wants to stay one step ahead of the Boxing Media so the behavior of Dubois is NOT something that we should EVER forget as it could prove quite helpful when betting on his fights. Dubois had spent so much time on his knees in those past fights that it is surprising that his height is not listed as 4 foot 11 instead of his full 6 foot 5, as people were starting to get very used to seeing him like that.

As a result of those performances from Dubois who was a very highly touted Heavyweight at that time, Dubois has ALSO needed to have his confidence rebuilt too, just like AJ. His whole career was in jeopardy, but Dubois luckily has the boxing media and the world of boxing politics VERY much on his side just like AJ always has. It is interesting how much these two fighters have in common regarding their weaknesses, as in addition to their proven weak mindsets in the past, they both have also had to be psychologically handled carefully and have both needed their confidence built back up. Dubois and AJ both also have a strong hold over Boxing Politics and the Boxing Media. It is interesting that these two fighters have all that in common, though those are not necessarily the most positive qualities to share.

Anthony Joshua (AJ)  

In looking at AJ in comparison, the story is much the same because regardless of the media spin doctors, AJ is STILL the "same human being" who virtually gave up against Andy Ruiz Jr in their first fight when things were not going his way. And he is the same human being who has been afraid to engage in exchanging punches with top opponents ever since then. I say that because I do not believe that AJ has looked reborn in recent fights, nor do I believe that he has turned back time as the Boxing Media has brainwashed many people into believing.

As I see it, AJ is a huge money maker so the powers that be in Boxing are definitely going to give him more chances than most any other Heavyweights, as he makes them alot more money than most other fighters do. This is a pattern throughout the last 15-20 years. There are certain fighters that keep being resold to us by the Boxing Media because of their name value, and with every new " comeback" they make, there is a new story manufactured by the Boxing Media as to why their comeback is warranted to give the public a reason to believe in them. The stories they spin are usually about how they are in better shape, more serious, training harder, drinking less, working with a trainer that will bring the best out of them, fighting in a better weight class, and eating more nutritious foods. The list of Boxing Media's stories to sell us faded and totally spent boxers goes on and on, and most of the public laps it up.

That fact is a big advantage for those of us who can see through the media's games because it almost always has an effect on the boxing odds in their fights that are beneficial for a bettor. That is inevitable, because for them to sell a totally washed up boxer well enough to get fans to believe in him again, means that the odds are DEFINITELY going to drop on his opponent who should be a HUGE favorite. And their opponents are almost always the winners, which is good news for the bettors.

The Boxing Media knows which fighters were once popular, huge money makers, were always in entertaining fights, filled stadiums, had the biggest fan bases or always got alot of publicity and attention. It is these fighters that have always been built up for undeserved endless comebacks that the Boxing Media sells the fans directly in the face of logic and reality. These " insider" boxers are allowed as many lives as a cat in boxing, care of the Boxing Media's salesmanship in order to make money from their name value. Based on those observations, both Boxing Media and Boxing Politics are NOT going to give up on AJ and stop reinventing him until they have squeezed every last bit of monetary juice that they can out of his brand. But I personally ignore the Boxing Media and I still have alot of questions about AJ's " REAL" mindset and willingness to engage when he is put to a real test.

We have gotten an apparition in his last 4 hand-picked fights against fighters who were journeymen at best. The reality is that we have NO idea how aggressively AJ will actually fight if he is in the ring with any truly "top" fighters, especially ones who can punch.

In looking at AJ's recent fights honestly?? --- The choice of opponents who he has recently been beating in his supposed rejuvenation and rebirth are all low level Heavyweight journeymen with average talent at their very best and most importantly, none of those opponents could punch. And yes, one can not deny that AJ has won his last 4 fights in one-sided fashion but not one of the opponents was a quality fighter. In fact, the truth is that they were ALL hand picked for AJ knowing full well that he would be able to beat them quite easily.

Eddie Hearn admitted his plan to rebuild AJ's confidence in a number of interviews, so I think the points I made here should be common knowledge for most fans, if one doesn't buy into the media spin on this and simply listens to those Eddie Hearn interviews in an objective and unbiased manner. The choosing of those specific opponents for AJ was all done with the hope of AJ winning big and  scoring big knockouts again. It was all done to convince the fans that AJ is rejuvenated, to build his confidence, to restore his brand, and most importantly to restore his earning ability in Boxing again, and on that end their mission has been very successful.

Okay---- so we know that both AJ and Dubois have won their recent fights and are both experiencing career resurgences--- but, as I said, we can not forget how mentally weak they are capable of acting when things are not going their way.  As I see it, all this confidence building that is being done to wipe those fights out of the public's mind is not going to change who they innately are when the going gets tough.

• "YOU CAN PAINT OVER GRAFFITI TO COVER IT UP, BUT THE GRAFFITI IS STILL GOING TO BE THERE UNDERNEATH THAT PAINT"

Using that above analogy, I expect that underneath the new paint, the AJ who doesn't want to engage and the Dubois who takes a knee whenever the mood strikes him are both STILL THERE but have been hidden just like that graffiti, and can re-emerge at any given time. The fact that they "can" emerge at any given time does not mean that they "will" emerge. However, it DOES mean that we can not approach betting their fights without looking at the possibility that their old behavior might return and weighing that possibility carefully for both of them.

I should add that those who believe that AJ faced a puncher when he fought Ngannou are mistaken. There's no denying that Ngannou is strong and powerful, but regardless of his fight with Fury, he was a carefully chosen, slow, plodding non-boxer and despite his strength, he visibly does not know how to properly & professionally throw his punches. He simply got lucky with his flash knockdown against an out of shape and over-confident Tyson Fury, and the truth is that Fury beat Ngannou more widely than the general consensus believes anyway. Everyone involved in the AJ/Ngannou fight knew that Ngannou was never going to be any competition for AJ. In fact, in retrospect, the AJ/Ngannou fight actually said alot more about Fury's unstable mindset and lack of conditioning than it did about Ngannou having enough talent to be a serious professional boxer.

So, considering all that, if one is unbiased, one would still have to question how AJ's mindset will hold up if Dubois should really challenge him, as Dubois is a decent boxer and can bang pretty good. In the past, AJ has been reluctant to engage against good fighters who can punch. If nothing else, Dubois is certainly a big man, with a good punch and is also a better fighter than these last 4 victims that were cherry-picked for AJ so he could look good beating them. All this was quite a successful rebuilding of the AJ brand, as within less than 2 years AJ is one of the biggest money makers in Boxing again. The orchestrated opponent choices were perfect to rebuild AJ's confidence, in addition to rebuilding his name value, his place among the top Heavyweights and his selling power in the process.

Anthony Joshua - Recent Performances

In looking at AJ before these last 4 fights which we will delve into further in a little while, AJ did fight quite well against Usyk in both their fights but was simply outclassed and dominated. That said, he still looked capable of being competitive, if nothing else, with most other Heavyweights today. But against Usyk, despite fighting well, AJ was once again afraid to go into the line of fire and engage with the much smaller, extremely talented Usyk.

AJ did engage in the last 3 of his 4 fights with lower level opponents but when he fights the top level boxers he has always chosen to run around the ring, fight from a distance, and avoid getting too close to them, and he certainly did not engage with any of them. He fought very tentatively and honestly appeared to fight scared against every boxer he faced since Andy Ruiz knocked him out. In fact, even when he regained the title from a terribly out of shape Andy Ruiz, he ran around the ring and fought from a distance. The few times they engaged in that fight, AJ looked a bit shaken, confused and clearly could not wait to get back on his bicycle.. However, Ruiz was so out of shape, that AJ was easily able to waltz his way to a boring, unimpressive decision victory in a fight that has never been talked about since it happened. And my feeling is if Dubois is the very best he can be and really brings his "A" game, then I expect to see that same fighting style from AJ against Dubois, and not what we have seen from AJ against the last 3 of his 4 totally over-matched opponents.

• "AJ seemed to hurt Usyk to the body and had some good moments in round 9 of their rematch"

In fact, in regards to AJ fighting scared?--- if AJ had not been so obviously wary of getting knocked out by Usyk in their 2nd fight, then that fight might have been alot more interesting, because AJ seemed to hurt Usyk to the body and had some good moments in round 9, but was reluctant to go in for the kill. As usual, in those spots against the top fighters, AJ has taken his foot off the gas due to fear of engaging too much ever since the Andy Ruiz fight. It is very obvious when watching the Usyk fights that AJ was not willing to engage with the much smaller, supremely gifted Usyk, even in round 9 of their 2nd fight, when AJ had Usyk a bit vulnerable.

That reluctance of AJ might have been due to the fact that in their first fight, AJ was within seconds of being knocked out in the 12th and final round by Usyk, and the fight would possibly have been stopped by the ref if he was anybody else but AJ. But the end result is that AJ still looked good in both of the Usyk fights but was simply fighting the better man and was soundly defeated in both of those fights.

The most major takeaway from those 2 fights for me, however, was that AJ did NOT choose to engage and played it safe in both those losses despite fighting well, and fought that way despite wanting to win those fights more than anything in the world. That being said, despite his overwhelming desire to win being a fact, he still played it safe in those two fights against Usyk. My personal feeling is that AJ will play it safe again when he steps up his competition level and faces a "real" opponent who is a legitimate threat.

Consider that in AJ's last 4 fights he beat Jermaine Franklin in a decision win ---  a decision win against Jermaine Franklin ??!!---- The fact is that AJ won that Franklin fight by fighting from a distance as he did not engage in that fight at all, seemingly due to his knowledge that Franklin had a beating heart.

In AJ's next fight he KOed Robert "Human Punching Bag" Helenius and that was not as impressive a win as the highlight reel knockout and the Boxing Media has made it out to be either. Let's not forget that Helenius had previously been knocked out even worse and in devastatingly quick fashion by Deontay Wilder, seemingly during the ring introductions.

AJ then beat a completely out of shape Otto Wallin, a fighter who is surely never going to need to worry about preparing a speech for Canastota. And most recently he KOed Francis Ngannou in Ngannou's 2nd professional fight as a boxer. To put it quite simply, the 4 fighters AJ has beaten since his 2nd loss to Usyk will never be considered for the "Mount Rushmore of Heavyweight Boxing".

However, AJ is a moneymaker so the Boxing Media has spun their narrative into the myth that in those 4 unimpressive fights, AJ turned back the clock and was magically reborn into the "great fighter he was before he fought Andy Ruiz". In reality, AJ never WAS the "great fighter" they say he was before he fought Andy Ruiz. To put it in perspective, during his peak years, AJ was easily one of the very best out of an extraordinarily awful group of Heavyweights.

Let's remember that AJ did not fight Wilder, Ortiz OR Tyson Fury, who were in their primes at that time, so AJ can not accurately be called the best during his prime years either, as he did not fight any of the three other top Heavyweights around at that time, nor at any time during his career. I am not saying that any of this was his fault, necessarily, or that it makes him a less talented fighter, but I AM saying that he never did fight the very best heavyweights at any time in his career. That tells me that his reputed greatness, even back when he was at his peak, was proven against only the very best 2nd tier fighters around, but he never did fight any of the boxers who were on that 1st tier. To be clear,  that does not mean he could not have beaten the very best at that time or that he was NOT the very best at that time. It simply means that, for whatever reasons, somehow, he never did fight the three very best active Heavyweights during his prime years, and that does need to be considered when rating his chances among the other Heavyweights today.

As for me, I don't believe a leopard can change his spots, so I still believe AJ will show reluctance to engage the very next time he faces a truly good fighter who can punch,  just like he did not engage in all his other fights since the Ruiz loss. AJ WAS clearly more aggressive against the low level of fighters in the last 3 of his 4 recent " turning back of the clock" fights----- but to me, that doesn't mean he will fight the same way against a top fighter who can punch. For those reasons, I do not consider AJ a rejuvenated fighter who turned back the clock and fixed his psychological mindset--- BUT I still DO consider him one of the top Heavyweights today. But for me, I still question his mindset as much as I ever did, and his last 4 fights proved nothing to me due to the low competition level.

So, the main questions are:

1) how will AJ react if TRULY challenged by a top fighter?

2) Is Dubois truly a top fighter?

3) Has Dubois's resurgence also been sold to us by the Boxing Media?

4) Can Dubois present the type of challenge to force AJ to really have to be in a legitimate fight?

It is because of all these variables that I can not feel too confident in betting this fight. And just like the goal of this new column, I am looking to find a bet that makes enough sense to me that I can bet something at good odds for entertainment and to have some action during the fight which always makes the fights ALOT of fun.

Daniel Dubois - Recent Performances

If we compare Dubois's recent performances and resurgence back to the top, it appears a bit more legitimate than AJ's resurgence has been. That reason is mainly because Dubois has had to EARN his way back to the top, because he was not gifted with a path back to the top in the manner AJ was. That is the reason I would say Dubois's resurgence was more real, because he surely fought better opposition than AJ has. AJ was not gifted with a path back only in the sense that he still had to beat all his opponents, but he WAS gifted in the sense that his opponents were hand-picked low-level opposition, whereas Dubois had to beat two top fighters to earn this big money fight with AJ.

• "Dubois gets credit for facing two top, real hard-punching fighters to get this big fight with AJ"

In his last two fights Daniel Dubois had to beat both Baby Miller and Filip Hrgorvic (a fight in which Dubois was the underdog).  In addition, Miller and Hrgorvic can both punch too. So there is a big difference in AJ and Dubois's respective rebirths because Dubois has beaten two highly rated Heavyweights, in fact one of them was rated the #1 contender too (Hrgorvic). As I mentioned they are also both punchers and Dubois took their shots and still beat them. In comparing their resurgences, AJ has faced 4 journeymen and he was a big favorite over all of them in his process of rebuilding, so Dubois gets points here for facing 2 top, real hard-punching fighters to get this big fight with AJ.

Before we can run with that narrative though, we need to look deeper into the two fight's Dubois won and try to see if it is all that it seems to be. He beat Miller, and he looked very good in that fight. But?--- in the fight with Hrgorvic, Dubois proved to be VERY easy for Hrgorvic to hit. Hrgorvic hit him the whole night with straight hard rights repeatedly and Dubois was NOT hard to find at all. Hrgorvic was clearly winning and was well ahead on the cards until the cut caused by one of Dubois's punches became too hard to control and the fight was stopped, giving Dubois the victory by TKO. But that fight does raise some questions, as it seems that if Dubois had NOT cut Hrgorvic, and the fight did not get stopped due to that cut, Dubois likely would have either gotten KOed or lost widely on points. Yes, it was a Dubois punch that cut Hrgorvic and ended the fight but if Hrgorvic did not get cut from that punch, how might that fight have ended??--- Yes, Dubois won the fight, fair and square, but it does raise some questions.

So although Dubois DID win, he did NOT win in an overly impressive manner as he was well behind at the time he cut Hrgorvic, and for most of the fight before it was stopped, Dubois was seemingly getting hit at will by Hrgorvic. However, to Dubois's credit, he made sure that his knees stayed the same distance away from the canvas the whole fight. To give Dubois some additional points, he took all those punches that the hard punching Hrgorvic had to offer and took them often and he did NOT quit or go down which actually showed he had heart, a will to win and a very good chin.

• "Hrgorvic is a very hard puncher, and can arguably punch as hard as AJ does"

-We must remember that Hrgorvic is a very hard puncher, and can arguably punch as hard as AJ does. That would indicate that Dubois's ability to take all those shots as he did and gut it out to win by a TKO due to cutting up Hrgorvic's face can be viewed as a silver lining to the fact he got hit as hard and often as he did. In fact, Dubois showed that same determination in his very first loss back in 2020 as he was ahead of Joe Joyce on the cards, despite taking endless flush shots from the very hard-hitting Joyce. Dubois showed determination and did not go down or even get staggered in their fight and Joyce also hits at least as hard as AJ, and possibly harder, but again, Dubois seemed to take that knee out of nowhere. And can we be sure the Boxing Media reports of Dubois's broken eye socket are true??

• "Two of Dubois's weakest performances were against southpaws"

It also pays to take note that two of Dubois's weakest performances were against southpaws (Oleksandr Usyk and Kevin Lerena). In my eyes, Dubois was clearly inconsistent in effectively adapting to the southpaw style. Dubois lost every second of his fight against Usyk and he also got knocked down and took a knee 3 times in the first round of his horrible performance against Kevin Lerena, who was an over-matched journeyman, but who also happened to be a southpaw.

Coincidence?? --- well, the only orthodox fighter that Dubois ever lost to was Joe Joyce. But, Dubois was beating Joe Joyce on the cards in their fight and although he took a knee out of nowhere, it was reported that the reason he did that was due to a fractured eye socket. If we choose to accept that reason as fact, then one can excuse him for that loss because he was winning the fight in the 10th round before that injury happened. And if we look at his only other two shaky performances, they both occurred against southpaws. It should also be noted that in Dubois's two fights against southpaws he did not fight as well as in all his other fights. Dubois lost every second of his fight with Usyk, except for the one controversial punch that was ruled a "low blow" (I thought it was clearly low). Dubois gave a workmanlike performance in that fight until eventually getting knocked down by a jab and taking a knee again as he seemed to mentally give up. But one could still question how much of Dubois's struggle with Usyk was because Usyk was a southpaw?

And then there was the Kevin Lerena debacle, as Lerena was the only other southpaw that Dubois had ever faced, and in fact, was the first southpaw Dubois ever faced. In my opinion, that fight should have been stopped in the 1st round after Dubois took the knee a 3rd time, and again Dubois seemed to want to quit. Additionally, for some reason he looked very uncomfortable fighting Lerena, a fighter who is not nearly on Dubois's level--- but a fighter who also happens to be a southpaw.

If one gives Dubois a pass for his loss to Joyce in a fight that he was winning until he took a knee in round 10 due to the reported injury and if one was to give Dubois a pass for his struggles against Usyk and Lerena as they were the only two southpaws he had ever faced in his career, and accepted the possibility that Dubois was out of his comfort zone, then the fact would be that Dubois had reasons for both of his losses AND for his early struggle against Lerena, which were his only three shaky fights.

Otherwise, Dubois has looked good and won all his other fights while also proving he’s able to handle many (arguably TOO many) flush punches from the hardest-hitting heavyweights fighting today. In addition, Dubois has never gone down or been hurt by any of them either.

So, it might be worthwhile to ponder that Dubois is more comfortable and at his best against orthodox fighters. There is also no disgrace in any fighter going down against Usyk, an ATG southpaw who is on a higher level than the rest of the heavyweights fighting today. And in the Kevin Lerena fight, Dubois might have gone down and taken the knee three times in that first round because it was the very first round he had EVER fought against a southpaw in his entire career. In addition, despite how awful Dubois looked in that odd first round, there wasn't any point where it looked like Lerena had actually hurt him. It is also a fact that none of the knockdowns in that round occurred from a flush shot either. It truly was a very odd round, and it only adds to the dilemma of assessing Dubois with any real confidence.

•  "It truly was a very odd round, and it only adds to the dilemma of assessing Dubois with any real confidence"

As I alluded to, there are endless questions about Dubois, because he also DID seem to mentally want to quit at various points in all three of those fights. So regardless of the injury and the fact the other two fighters were southpaws, the questions about his mindset still remain impossible to answer.

But if Dubois can handle AJ's power as he handled Hrgorvic and Joyce's power, and if the Dubois issue with Usyk and Lerena WAS due to them being southpaws, and if Dubois's eye socket had not gotten fractured and he continued beating a prime Joe Joyce and won... then this fight with AJ could certainly prove to play out very differently than most boxing fans seem to think it will.

Now that is admittedly a lot of ifs but none of them are far-fetched – and for all these questions that linger about Dubois, there is one thing I can say for certain and it is that Daniel Dubois should not be a +325 underdog and AJ shouldn't be a -500 favorite. That is simply a fact that should be considered in everyone’s betting as those odds should be a lot closer than they are, and because –if nothing else– Daniel Dubois is definitely a live underdog.

Possible Outcomes and The Betting -  The Correct Pick is NOT always the Best Bet

The above variables are what this column is all about as we analyze them, weigh different variables, various outcomes and then decide the best ways to bet to have some fun and hopefully make a nice profit too. There are just too many question marks about how the mental states of both of these fighters will hold up, and that is not something that can accurately be figured at this point in time, no matter how well one can analyze their boxing styles and abilities. As I see it, this makes the fight's result and the method of victory a complete guessing game. Before we delve into the betting of this fight, let me reiterate the fact that “The Correct Pick is NOT always the Best Bet”. Those words are taken right from the heading of this section and they apply to all the “bets” we make, and not our “picks” themselves.

Remember that “picking winners” is not synonymous with “making a profit”, nor is “picking winners” remotely synonymous with being a “successful gambler”. The goal of gambling should always be to make our bets in the best way to make a profit with the least risk, unless, of course you are one of the many who enjoy it recreationally and like to do it solely for entertainment. If the more serious gamblers among us do not make profits for too long a time, we will not have enough money left to continue gambling. In considering all that, we need to accept that making a winning bet does not mean a thing in regards to successful long-term gambling unless there is value in those bets. Picking winners is wonderful, but ONLY if those winners are making us a profit, otherwise, it is honestly meaningless for anything other than bragging rights.

It is better to make 2 winning bets out of 10 picks at +500, than it is to make 6 winning bets out of 10 picks at -200. If a person starts with $100 and bets $10 per bet for 10 bets at +500, and that person gets only TWO winning bets out of those TEN bets, that person would leave his betting session with $120, which is a healthy $20 profit. In comparison, if someone else started with $100 and bet $10 per bet for 10 bets at -200 and picked SIX winning bets, he would leave his betting session with $90 which is a $10 LOSS.

That means the person who picked SIX winning bets will leave his betting session with $30 LESS than the person who only picked the winning bet TWICE. It also means that the person who picked the winning bet SIX times will leave his betting session with a LOSS of $10, and the person who only picked the winning bet TWO times will leave his betting session with a nice profit of $20.

It is for this reason that someone can not go to the horse races, play the favorites in every race on the card and expect to make a long-term profit. In horse racing, the favorites tend to win about 33% of the time, which means that on a 9-race card a person can expect to win 3 races. That is an excellent winning percentage at the racetrack, but one that is certain to lose the bettor alot of money in the long-term because the favorites have such small payouts, and the same applies to betting on boxing.

The genuine hope of this new column is to try to help some of us use our boxing and betting knowledge to make our fight bets on the very best paying profitable bets that have a substantial possibility of winning. And please try to remember the main point, which is that the amount of fights someone bets and win is not what matters, but rather, it is the amount of PROFIT someone makes on fights they bet and win that separates the profitable gamblers from the losing gamblers.

• "Gambling with small stakes is a wonderful leisure activity when playing for fun to enhance a sporting event"

If you are just a casual gambler and playing for fun, then gambling is a wonderful leisure activity, but, if you should so desire, why not try to make a little extra money while you are having fun entertaining yourself too?? So, with all that being said, in the AJ/Dubois fight which we are discussing today, we are looking for the best “value” in our bets. And we are looking to make only small bets for entertainment, action and hopefully even a profit too. And I can say with certainty that this is a fight with so many unanswered questions about the two fighters that I would discourage anyone to risk betting serious money on it.

Back to the fight

Okay, so let’s look at some more specific things in regards to this fight and talk about ways to bet if you are on the fence like I am. For starters, I should mention that I think the odds on this fight should be MUCH closer than they are. AJ at -500 are out of whack odds and a foolish bet as he should not really be any more than about -200, so betting AJ to win surely might be the correct pick, but it would be a very foolish bet, because of the very low payout and the risk involved. A bet on AJ to win does not follow the 3 Ps, as it falls VERY short in regards to the payout, and does not rank high enough in the probability to justify betting it, so please remember that the correct pick is not always the correct bet.

In addition, a person could easily bet one of the props on AJ, be correct in their basic choice of AJ winning in the manner they chose and they can still lose the bet, of which all are paying too little to begin with. Please keep in mind that all the safer bets on AJ are paying very little, in addition to paying far less than they should, while also coming with alot of inherent risk. In my opinion, this fight could certainly be much more competitive than most people seem to be thinking it will be.

On my end, after weighing my 3 Ps of 1) Probability,  2) Percentage, and 3) Payout, I am looking to make a small bet on a result that it is surely possible and that has a high enough percentage of victory and ultimately a high enough payout when weighed against its possibility and percentage to justify making my bet.

Some betting angles to consider 

If you are undecided as to who will win this fight, or do not know how to bet on AJ without being forced to take huge risks, then in my mind the best two straight up value bets, with the lowest percentage of risk in this fight are betting either "Daniel Dubois to win"  (+325 at the moment) which is surely a possible result with a high enough percentage to happen when weighed against the high payout of +325. The other bet would be to bet "The Fight To Go The Distance" (+330 at the moment) which fits the same criteria as the first bet---- and I will explain why these are the bets I am going to make.

• Daniel Dubois to Win  @ 4.50 (UK odds)
• Fight To Go The Distance  @ 5.00 (UK odds)

Before I go on any further, I will tell you that, in my opinion, there is a slightly better chance of AJ winning this fight. However, that is not the way I'd advise betting this fight, even if you feel the same way, because of the low payouts, high risk and the fact that anything can happen in this fight. Additionally, in regards to betting this fight, the 3 Ps I use are in favor of trying to find value in some way other than directly betting on AJ. A bet on AJ offers too little value and too much risk, especially if you decide to make one of the many prop bets on AJ at odds that are inherently far too low, especially when weighed against their risk.

If you were to make a prop bet and win it, that is wonderful for you, of course, but the truth is it would be because you got lucky and not because it was the best bet to make in this type of fight. And although Lady Luck can be a beautiful thing for a gambler, the fact remains that betting in that manner is not going to make a long-term profit, especially in fights where someone is unsure of the result, which is the very topic this #WrightOrWrong column is all about.

If we are not sure of a result and just want some action, then we need to make small bets, for big prices, that have the best chance of coming in. We should not try to get too specific in guessing on the outcome, as we are looking for profitable payouts for very minimal investment. In addition, the fights we are unsure of should be bet much smaller than usual, and as safely as we can bet them after weighing them against the potential profit.

The reason one might want to think about betting "the fight going the distance" will be explained in the following scenario--- so let's break down this possibility and see what we all think.

Let's keep everything that we've already discussed in mind as we look at some various possibilities. Let's suppose the fight begins and Dubois gets AJ's respect early and AJ feels the Dubois power and realizes that Dubois hits harder than his last 4 opponents and maybe hits as hard or even harder than Usyk, who almost knocked AJ out in the first fight?

Well, I could easily see AJ deciding to play it safe, not engaging, retreating into his shell, getting on his bicycle and fighting much more defensively than the Boxing Media has led people to believe he will be fighting. I can easily see AJ trying to stay away from the right hand of Dubois, and fighting as cautiously as he always has when he faces true competition. This is ESPECIALLY possible if Dubois earns AJ's respect early, which would be a very wise strategy for Dubois, in my opinion, and one that I think his team might use.

Then, if that DOES happen and if AJ starts to fight defensively that will surely make AJ harder for Dubois to land flush on as Dubois's ring IQ is far from legendary.

And in looking over the career of Dubois, he might not be an ATG knockout artist but he does have 20 stoppages in 21 wins and I feel positive that if he fights smartly, Dubois has the power to knock AJ out, especially since AJ has been proven to not have a world class chin.

• "If Dubois is on his A-game and fights the best fight of his life I think he has a good chance of knocking AJ out"

In fact, if Dubois is on his A-game and fights the best fight of his life I think he has a good chance of knocking AJ out, which is why one of the bets I am betting is "Dubois to Win". AJ likely has the power to knock Dubois out too, but AJ is paying -240 to win by KO/TKO/DQ over Dubois, and Dubois is paying +325 to win in ANY fashion, so in my opinion, the 3 Ps are totally in favor of placing the Dubois bet.

And since the Dubois bet is paying so well, I am looking to place another bet, at good odds, to see if I can get AJ into my bet somehow, but without directly betting on AJ he is paying so very little and so much less than he should be.

It is for all those reasons mentioned above in regards to the power of Dubois,  that I can see a scenario where AJ feels the power of Dubois and might not fight Dubois the way he fought his last couple of fights and fight Dubois more like he fought Jermaine Franklin, Andy Ruiz in the rematch and all his fights after that -- meaning I do not expect that AJ will engage too much with Dubois and will be content to protect himself and try to outbox Dubois. Now if AJ fights in that manner, then in addition to greatly decreasing his chances of getting stopped by Dubois, AJ would ALSO be decreasing his own chances to knock Dubois out too, by proxy-- hence the "fight to go the distance" is a quite possible scenario to consider when making one's bets, and you can also get both fighters to win (and the unlikely draw) if you bet "fight to go the distance".

The wild card in all these scenarios to me is Dubois. Will Dubois be able to fight the whole fight and NOT take a knee and quit when the going gets tough, or quit on his stool and claim an injury, or not find some other way out of the fight if his confidence gets shaken??  If AJ fights Dubois as cautiously as I expect he will after he first tastes the power of Dubois, will Dubois even be able to go the full 12 rounds without getting frustrated, making a mistake and giving AJ an opening to land one of his own power shots??--- Dubois is the big question to me in regards to this fight going the distance. Can Dubois stay disciplined and try to outbox AJ over the 12 rounds??--- and the big question that looms is exactly what is Dubois going to bring to the table on Fight Night??

• "Dubois and AJ are both totally unpredictable heading into this fight"

Dubois and AJ are both totally unpredictable heading into this fight, but I think Dubois is MORE unpredictable than AJ. Dubois is capable of going in there and making this a very rough night for AJ, and possibly even spoiling the party for him and knocking him out, getting a TKO stoppage or knocking AJ down a few times and winning a decision. On the other hand, Dubois is also capable of taking a knee from any punch, and at any moment of the fight too, and given Dubois's mindset in some of his past fights, it might even happen during the singing of the National Anthem.

If Dubois is determined to give this fight all he has, then I think he will be there to fight to the finish. And I think that AJ will have his hands more than full and could quite possibly get stopped, or knocked down a few times making it wide enough that Dubois can win a decision. So, I can easily see a scenario where this fight goes the distance and either fighter wins, BUT in the event that Dubois forces the issue and attacks AJ and forces the fight??-- then I can see the fight becoming a bit of a shootout in the middle rounds with AJ vulnerable and out of his comfort zone but with an equal chance of Dubois possibly making a costly mistake too, as he can be quite undisciplined defensively when he is putting his offense together.

So, for those who want to bet Joshua to win, please recognize the risk and lack of profit, as there is simply no money betting on him to win. AJ is undeservedly a huge favorite at -500 and it is far too risky a bet in a fight that should arguably be closer to 50-50 in reality, so I'd advise eliminating that bet on AJ to win. We can also eliminate the prop bet of betting AJ by KO/TKO/DQ as that is also paying terribly at -225 and is also far too risky for the small payout.

The only big payout on an AJ bet would be to bet AJ by decision which is a very possible outcome and is paying +550 at the moment and that is a good bet for those who believe strongly that AJ will win and think the fight will go the distance. However, if you are willing to bet on AJ by decision at +550, wouldn't it be a safer bet to bet "Fight To Go The Distance" at +330 and getting both fighters to win AND also winning if the fight is a draw??

If you bet AJ by decision you will not win if it is a draw because you would be betting the 'method of victory', so that all depends on your personal comfort level. But for me, I'd rather bet "Fight To Go The Distance" at +330 than "AJ by decision" at +550, so I can collect the same +330 & profit if AJ wins by decision AND if the fight is a draw. I do not think there is a big enough difference in the payouts of +330 on "Fight To Go The Distance" and +550 on "AJ By Decision" to justify betting the one result of "AJ By Decision" at +550 when I can get AJ by Decision, Dubois by decision, and the Draw all for +330, in a fight that is very unpredictable.

For me, I would rather bet "the fight to go the distance" at +330 and win if AJ wins, if Dubois wins and win if the fight is a draw too. I think it is too risky to bet AJ by decision at +550 and lose my investment if Dubois wins and if the fight is a draw. Most importantly to me, is that the 3 Ps favor betting "the fight to go the distance" for me. It all depends on each individual's mindset, but the safer bet between the two is "the fight to go the distance", as I see the result of this fight as highly unpredictable.

However, the fact remains that if you want to bet on AJ in this fight, the ONLY AJ bet that will make money is to bet AJ by decision, and it is a fine choice if that is what you believe the result will be and have considered the above and still prefer betting AJ by decision for the extra payout. In comparison, Dubois by decision is paying VERY well at +1200 but that seems a good bit less likely to happen than AJ winning if it goes the distance. In contrast, Dubois to win by KO/TKO/DQ is too risky at +450 when you can get Dubois to win in any fashion at +325--- and as I said AJ by KO/TKO/DQ and AJ to win are both bad paying bets on their own, and with far too much risk. 

My choice is going to cover the most territory I can for the best payout in this uncertain fight for me. I am going to combine the two bets I mentioned earlier together and overlap them, as the odds are high enough that I can cover quite a few results here, and still make a substantial profit.

How I will split my stakes

I am going to bet 50% of my investment on "Dubois to win" at +325  AND overlap the other 50% of my investment on "The Fight To Go The Distance" AT +330. 

If I make the bet this way I would be covered with my 50% bet on "Dubois to Win" if Dubois wins by Decision AND if Dubois wins by KO/TKO/DQ and I'd also get my 50% investment back if it was a draw (that is in the USA anyway. I do not believe they return your investment on a draw in the UK, and I don't know about other countries). If I overlap it with "Fight to Go the Distance" for the other 50% of my investment, I'd have BOTH fighters to win if the fight goes the 12-round distance and I would ALSO win if the fight was a draw on that bet, so I have many more possible results covered at large odds too. In betting this way, on the chance that Dubois DID win a decision I would win ALSO win both bets, meaning I'd get paid for "Dubois to Win" AND for "The Fight To Go The Distance".

And in the event of a draw I would win one bet and get my money back (with US sportsbooks) on the other so I'd win on one of my bets and get my investment back on the other.  At odds of +330 on the "fight to go the distance" and + 325 on "Daniel Dubois to win" a person could well afford to play half their investment on each of these bets and get a nice payout back with alot of different potential ways to win, assuming they were open to this type of bet.

So to summarise my thinking is that this bet would make a nice profit if:

1) Dubois wins by KO/TKO/DQ 

2) Dubois wins by decision (Full Payout on this bet)

3) The Fight is a Draw (in the USA I'd get my $100 investment back on "Dubois to win")  and 

4) AJ wins by decision.

Worked example of split-stakes

Below is an example of the bet I am referring to if someone was to make a $200 Total bet and split it up with $100 on the Fight to go the Distance at +330 and $100 on Dubois to win at +325. I am using this number as an example, as you can bet as little as you want as long as you divide the two bets into 50% of the investment on one and 50% of the investment on the other. But to make the way the pricing would work clear, I chose the round number of $100 on each bet, which makes it a total $200 bet and very easy to understand how the payouts would work as mapped out below.

So, on a $200 total bet, with $100 bet on "Dubois To Win" and the other $100 bet on "Fight to go the Distance" the following would be the winnings and returns:

1) Dubois by KO/TKO/DQ at +325 would get back $425 including the $100 investment on the "Dubois to win" bet

2) Dubois by decision at +325 would get back $855 including the entire $200 investment and the payouts on both the $100 "Dubois to win" bet at +325 and the $100 "Fight to Go The Distance"bet at +330.

3) AJ by decision would get back $430 including the $100 investment on "Fight to Go The Distance" at +330 

4) A Draw would get back $530 including the $100 investment on "Fight to Go the Distance" , and the $100 investment returned on Dubois to win ( because a Draw voids the win bets and all investments get returned. I repeat again, that is how it works in the USA. This might vary in other countries, like the UK etc).

• "I am also not advising how much to stake on the fight, simply how I would split my total investment"

That bet can cover the result quite widely if one is betting without having any strong feelings on how the fight is going to go. I am also not advising how much to spend on the fight. You can judge by your own bankrolls and your own levels of confidence, and the less the confidence, the smaller the bet should be. As I said earlier, those above examples on a $200 bet were only being used to give an example that would make it easier to understand in regards to how to make the bet, the different bets it would cover, and the profitability of the bet in its entirety.

In general that bet can be made for very little money, as long as the investment is made with 50% being bet on "Dubois To Win" and the other 50% being bet on "The Fight To Go The Distance".

Summary

In regards to this fight, if you were wanting to make an action bet for fun, entertainment and some action, I would not advise spending alot of time trying to decide between the endless different prop scenarios. I'd advise that you make a small bet for profitable odds that can cover you well enough that you will not end up being correct about your pick but still losing your bet, along with your money. 

My advice to those wanting to bet AJ by KO/TKO/DQ, which is a strong possibility, is that betting the rounds is clearly a much better payout than betting AJ by KO/TKO/DQ straight. However, due to the rather low payouts and risk involved, it is chancy to get too specific in this fight as the round groupings on AJ are not paying as well as they should when weighed against the risk in that bet.

Additionally, there is also a very good chance that you might end up being right about your predicted outcome and still losing your bet because you got unlucky and bet the wrong round that the knockout happened in. That bet should really only be made if the payouts are very generous or if you feel very confident and content in the rounds you are betting the knockout to happen in. It is always important to stay very aware of the risk involved in "being right" about the KO/TKO happening and STILL losing your bet for not betting on the correct round, especially if a payout was not very generous to begin with.

Now, if your confidence level in an AJ stoppage is very high, and you totally believe in that result, then you could bet a round grouping of your choice in whatever way you like, and cross your fingers that AJ gets a KO/TKO during the rounds you picked, and that is a solid bet as long as you weighed the risks involved in your choices and were okay with them, as that is why they call it gambling, as there is a risk in all of it. Please do analyze the odds in those round groupings and maybe weigh my 3 Ps and see if the ends justify the means, because many bettors can get lucky, hit their bets, and still make little to no profit because of the way they made their bets. 

In summary--- after we've dissected these variables for the fight,  my personal bet for the fun of having some betting action on this hard to figure fight is going to be:

50% of my investment on "Dubois To Win" at +325 and 50% of my investment on "Fight To Go The Distance" at +330.

That is going to be my personal bet, anyway, and you should all make whatever bets you are truly comfortable with and hopefully considering the 3 Ps when placing your bets might be helpful to some of you in the long-term.

Please do remember that when betting fights we have no strong opinions about, we should always make our smallest bets. They should also be made for "maximum profit" with "minimal risk", and try to cover the most ground as we can, as these unpredictable fights are not the ideal time for Prop bets.

I hope that parts of this column might have struck a chord or been a bit helpful to some, so now let's enjoy the action and the fights, whether or not we turn out to be #WrightOrWrong.

Good luck to all of you, and I'll see you at the fights --- Until we meet again !!---

Johnny Wright USA

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Usyk vs Fury 2 - The Rematch: click here.  

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