Mike Tyson will return to the ring to fight Jake Paul in a Netflix special on Saturday 20 July. He will be 58 years old. It is testament to the power of the Tyson brand and the mythology surrounding him that has created a surprising tidal wave of interest in this contest.
Background
Make no mistake, this is not the same as Muhammad Ali's ill-fated quest to return to heavyweight glory in the early 1980s. In back-to-back defeats to Larry Holmes and Trevor Berbick, Ali was a fully-licensed professional boxer deemed fit enough to fight for the WBC Heavyweight title. He was sanctioned to fight, but he was not fit to fight and his disillusionment at this stage of his career is widely believed to be a significant contributor to his physical decline over the following years. No boxing fan wants to see this repeated and there has been understandable derision from many of the old school.
It would be beyond credibility for Mike Tyson, at 58 and a clear three decades past his prime, to be sanctioned to fight in a professional boxing match. As soon as this fight was announced, it was clear that it would not be a fight, but an "event", a catch-all term that allows the promotion to push it as a legitimate contest, while knowing full-well it will be nothing of the sort.
If Tyson had announced a return to the ring with a bout against 8-and-0 Sol Dacres, AKA "The Real Deal" and the 109th best heavyweight in the world, there would be real cause for concern that Tyson had genuinely lost his mental faculties.
While Ali was sanctioned and disillusioned in the 1980s, Mike Tyson in 2024 is neither.
He is not stupid. Last summer he invited Jake Paul on to his Hotboxin' with Mike Tyson podcast. If you click through to the 5:00 minute mark you will hear Paul explain that boxing to him is "a business first actually, the fighting comes second". He says his business is about "growing the platforms" of other fighters, including Amanda Serrano.
And now Mike Tyson too who is reported to be taking home around $20,000,000 for the 16 minutes of work required to do the 8 x 2 minute rounds likely to be scheduled for the bout. (Don't be surprised to see Tyson representing his Tyson 2.0 cannabis brand during the build-up and the event itself.)
It was probably shortly after this podcast conversation that the idea of Tyson and Paul cashing-in was discussed between the two men. It would explain why Paul would refer to Tyson as a family member rather than a rival in the YouTube comments. Throughout the conversation, the two of them seem like they are on good terms, friendly and far more likely to go into business together than to go into battle against each-other.
Would you really want to fight your favourite uncle?
I have had a similar conversation several times now, from casual and serious boxing fans alike, all with the same belief that Tyson can miraculously roll back the years and "smoke the YouTuber", or words to that effect. I just don't get it.
Tyson Fury has recently said that the fight is "fantastic" for boxing which, for me, is a reminder to take the opposite opinion to pretty-much everything that comes out of his mouth. On the subject of cold-takes, it is worth a brief look at some TikTok insights.
Over there, you will get even more strong opinions about Mike Tyson's current boxing abilities and his ability to defeat Father Time.
This individual is taking the Jake Paul approach to the promotion by referring to Tyson's archive footage from four years ago, and older, as if it is new. Still, 32,000 people like this analysis.
This TikTok user stopped what they were doing as a gamer to give their thoughts on the Tyson vs Paul debate, gaining 110,000 nods of approval. In fact, it is very hard to find anyone who doesn't think this is going to be a Tyson destruction of Jake Paul.
I recently found myself in a conversation on TikTok about the fight. One individual was convinced that Tyson would win and referred to Mike's annihilation of the 1990s boxing side-show Eric "Butterbean" Esch as evidence. It was an interesting form-line to use. Mike Tyson has never fought Butterbean.
Perhaps it is this overwhelming public support and belief in Tyson that goes some way to explaining why the odds-compilers have the betting lines so close in this one. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened.
When Floyd Mayweather fought Conor McGregor in 2017 it would ultimately go down as the "The Betting Event Of The 2010s" with Mayweather's odds offering sharp bettors would become widely regarded as "The Greatest Bet Ever".
Bill Krackomberger, a well-known professional sports bettor, reflects on that fight:
- " I actually started doubting myself when the line started dropping, not even thinking that it's all these millennials, and all these kids who watch UFC. Their little $50, $100, $200 and $500 bets cumulatively added up to millions of dollars and forced the sportsbooks to over-move the lines to get the buyback from the sharps. I'm not sure there will ever be another betting opportunity like that again. "
This Paul vs Tyson event might just be the next opportunity he alluded to. Finding online opinions that support Jake Paul is very hard, they are so massively outnumbered by the TikTokers, YouTubers, "gamers" and armchair-experts. But now and then you'll hear the voice of reason sounding out through all the noise.
The betting odds
Given the uncertainty about the rules for this event [at time of writing: 8-April-2024], it is curious that odds are even available. It is absolutely staggering that Tyson is only a very slight 7/5 underdog. The fact that the betting is so close is further evidence, should you need it, that there is no jeopardy in this fight.
When Tyson fought Lennox Lewis in 2002, he admitted he had "three good minutes" in him. We are 22 years on since then, and probably about 22 acres of weed down since then. To quote BlackWolf on X, "last time I checked marijuana wasn’t the fountain of youth".
If this was a boxing match with both fighters trying to win, Jake Paul would be a colossal (unbackable) favourite. Pick ANY 10-fight pro fighter in their late-20s who weighs 200lbs and put them against ANY 58-year-old on the planet and you have the dictionary definition of a boxing mismatch. Yes, even if it is Iron Mike Tyson in the opposite corner.
The "fight"
I don’t care how “sh*t" people say Jake Paul is; he’s a professional 200lb boxer in his prime with decent natural power and athleticism and there is no way in the world that he will (1) want to or (2) be allowed to punch a 58-year-old man in the head with any genuine intent to inflict harm.
Similarly, no 58-year-old man would sign up to that, even the mythical monster that is Mike Tyson, who has been shot since 1990. Arguably.
The amount of harm that could be done with 10-oz gloves and no head-gear is genuinely frightening.
To put his age in perspective, Tyson is already way too old to even be allowed to take part in a white-collar charity boxing event in the UK. In high-level sport, 58 is absurdly old. In combat sports, it is unfathomable.
So why would anyone take it remotely seriously? They are friends and business partners. Their “fight” will be nothing more than a public workout between two gym buddies wearing 14- or 16-oz pillows-for-gloves. There will be no more jeopardy than you will see if you go down to your local Virgin Active boxercise class.
No matter how many times we are shown archive footage of Tyson hitting the pads for 3 seconds and edited together into a montage that makes him look like the baddest man on the planet again, and no matter how many promotional clips we are fed showing that these two are now the darkest of enemies, it doesn't change the fact that this is a cash-grab... I am absolutely fine with that.
Tyson isn’t stupid and Paul isn’t going to risk seriously hurting a 58-year-old. Period.
A prediction
Over the coming months we will hear a lot of people saying that if Tyson just comes out firing he can get Paul out of there early. I simply do not see this as anything but farfetched wishful thinking. Those epic training montages of Tyson looking like he is incredible shape are doing a huge amount of heavy-lifting for this promotion. I love them as much as the next fan. I just don't think they mean anything.
Keep an eye out for these clips... you've almost certainly already seen them. Tyson looks fast and powerful on the pads and bag, but that doesn't mean he's fit to be taking proper heavyweight blows delivered with bad intentions. He will not be taking hard punches to the head at 58.
If this turns out to be the type of exhibition that I suspect it will be, the draw is a massive contender. That can be backed at 23/5 (5.6 in decimal odds). But in terms of reputational damage, one has to think that the contract (or script) is written in such a way that neither man will lose face. A draw would not help the Jake Pual brand and we know that it's all about the business for him.
It is therefore more likely that he wins a decision, carrying his dear old "Uncle Mike" through the entire thing, perhaps even having a little wobble for dramatic effect on route, while Tyson enhances his popularity (and market-share) with a new audience who are being introduced to the legendary heavyweight a generation after his prime. (I wouldn't be that surprised if Jake Paul actually stops a fatiguing Tyson "by mistake" even if he hasn't actually hurt him.)
For these reasons, I have bet on Jake Paul Draw No Bet at odds of 4/6 (1.67 in decimals odds) or better. The Draw No Bet market means that if the contest ends in a draw, your stake is returned. I have also layed (bet against) Tyson on the Betfair exchange at 2.30; that bet wins if there is a Draw or a Jake Paul victory.
Please note that this is a novelty event and sportsbooks will likely be taking very low stakes on these markets. The exchange will the better option if you're looking for a reasonable stake.
- Draw No Bet: Jake Paul to win @ 1.67 (4/6 in fractional odds)
- Lay Mike Tyson on Betfair @ 2.50 (6/4 in fractional odds)
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Ring Of Fire: Tyson Fury vs Usyk... for all the marbles.
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