Netflix Boxing - best of the undercard

By David Hipkin

Published 24th October 2024 10:53

Updated 15th November 2024 12:22

Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson; the complete Netflix card:

8 Rounds: Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson @ Heavyweight

10 Rounds: Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano 2 @ Super-Lightweight

12 Rounds: Mario Barrios vs Abel Ramos @ Welterweight

8 Rounds: Bruce Carrington vs Dana Coolwell @ Featherweight

10 Rounds: Shadasia Green vs Melinda Watpool @ Super-Middleweight

10 Rounds: Lucas Bahdi vs Corey Marksman @ Lightweight

6 Rounds: Neeraj Goyat vs Whindersson Nunes @ Middleweight

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KATIE TAYLOR VS AMANDA SERRANO 2

In April 2022 Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano fought for a brutally close 10 rounds in front of 20,000 fans at Madison Square Garden in what was billed as "For History"... the biggest female fight of all time. On the Netflix Boxing undercard, they do it again. While they are not headlining the bill in November this time, they have the potential to steal the show from the main event which is quite likely to disappoint.

This highly anticipated rematch between Taylor (38) and Serrano (36) on 15th November is expected to be another thrilling contest between two of the best in women’s boxing. They both have question marks about what they have left in the tank after lengthy and demanding careers which makes it an intriguing fight. And both fighters bring significant strengths into this rematch, making it a clash of Taylor’s technical brilliance and composure versus Serrano’s raw power and aggression.

Introduction

Katie Taylor turned professional in 2016 after an illustrious amateur career that included winning an Olympic gold medal at the 2012 London Olympics. Since then, she has compiled an impressive record of 23 wins (6 KOs) and 1 loss. Her only defeat came in 2023 when she lost to Chantelle Cameron, though she avenged that loss later the same year, demonstrating her now-trademark resilience.

Amanda Serrano began her professional career much earlier, turning pro in 2009. She has built a remarkable, throwback record of 46 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw over her long career. Serrano is known for her knockout power, with 30 KOs to her name, and has captured world titles in seven different weight classes, a record in women’s boxing.

Both fighters have impressive resumes, with Taylor being the more recent pro and Serrano having the advantage of longevity in the professional ranks. And both fighters have areas of vulnerability that the other can exploit, making this rematch as intriguing as their first bout.

Their resumes

Katie Taylor has a professional record of 23 wins and 1 loss. Her only defeat came against Chantelle Cameron in 2023, which she later avenged. Despite being the favourite in the UK betting markets, Taylor is not without vulnerabilities. In her first bout against Serrano, she was nearly overwhelmed by Serrano’s power in the mid-rounds. Additionally, at 38, there are concerns about her stamina and whether she can handle a high-intensity fight for the full ten rounds as she ages.

Amanda Serrano, with an impressive record of 46 wins, 3 losses, has tasted defeat three times, with one of those losses being the narrow decision against Taylor in 2022. Serrano a live underdog, make no bones about it. Her aggressive style, while a strength, can also be a weakness. Serrano tends to march forward, leaving herself open to counterattacks, as was evident when Taylor was able to respond with sharp counters in their first fight. Additionally, while Serrano has power, she sometimes struggles to maintain her aggression in the later rounds, which could be a concern in a rematch against a more tactical and counter-punching Taylor.

The clash of styles between these two cannot fail to ignite once again.

The clash of styles between these two cannot fail to ignite once again. The average length of Amanda Serrano’s fights is 6.1 rounds, largely due to her high number of knockout wins. In contrast, Katie Taylor’s fights tend to go the distance, with an average length of about 9.8 rounds, as most of her victories come by decision. This highlights the difference in their styles—Serrano’s aggressive, knockout-driven approach versus Taylor’s more measured, tactical game.

The first fight

The April 2022 fight was a classic, warranting the plaudits it received. The final moments of the final round showed how much this fight meant to both women. It was a very close contest, the SharpBetting scorecard having Taylor a narrow 96-94 winner. A split-decision, either way, seemed a fair result.

For us, the fight was a story of three parts. Taylor fighting on the back foot, nicking the first three rounds. Then she seemed to tire just a fraction, the action taking place in centre-ring and Serrano coming on very strongly in rounds 4 through 7. She had a massive fifth round, landing 44 shots during the 2-minute round and no one would have complained had the referee stepped in and rescued Taylor.

Serrano looked in control of the fight in these middle rounds, her corner confident enough to instruct her to "go left-hand happy", which was something she was clearly doing. But Taylor somehow found a second-wind and finished the fight strongly, against the odds.

We gave Taylor the final three rounds for a 96-94 scorecard.

Taylor 96-94 Serrano: the SharpBetting scorecard for the first fight [April 2022]

Katie Taylor’s strengths

Technical mastery and adaptability: Katie Taylor’s hallmark is her incredible technical skill, combining speed, footwork, and precise punch placement. In the 2022 fight against Amanda Serrano, Taylor showcased her adaptability by adjusting her approach in the later rounds. After being hurt by Serrano in the fifth round, Taylor shifted to a more counterpunching strategy, landing clean shots and turning the momentum in her favour. Her ability to switch between offensive and defensive tactics has helped her dominate the lightweight division.

Work-rate and composure under pressure: Taylor has an exceptional work rate and is capable of maintaining high output even when under pressure. In the rematch against Chantelle Cameron in 2023, Taylor was able to stay composed after a tough first fight. Her ability to regroup and outwork Cameron in the rematch demonstrated her resilience and tenacity, proving that she can thrive in high-stakes rematches. Even when faced with a physically stronger opponent, Taylor relies on her speed and endurance to carry her through tough rounds.

Tactical experience and ring IQ: As a two-time undisputed champion and 2012 Olympic gold medallist, Taylor has vast experience against top-level competition. Her ability to read fights, make tactical adjustments mid-bout, and exploit her opponent’s weaknesses is second to none. In many of her biggest fights, including victories over Delphine Persoon and Jessica McCaskill, Taylor’s fight IQ has been her biggest asset, allowing her to neutralise aggressive opponents with eye-catching counter-punching and her world-class footwork.

Amanda Serrano’s strengths

Power and aggression: Serrano is known for her powerful punches and relentless forward pressure. In their 2022 fight, Serrano’s aggression nearly overwhelmed Taylor, especially in the fifth round, where she landed heavy shots and had Taylor visibly hurt. Serrano has earned 30 knockouts in her career, demonstrating her ability to hurt opponents and finish fights early. Her power will always be a factor that opponents must be wary of, especially in the early rounds. She is coming off a second-round stoppage in her last fight in July.

Durability and toughness: Serrano’s ability to take punishment while continuing to march forward is another key strength. Even when Taylor turned the tide in their first fight, Serrano never backed down. She absorbed Taylor’s counters and continued to press forward, forcing Taylor into exchanges. This toughness has served Serrano well throughout her career, allowing her to outlast and overwhelm less durable opponents.

Body-punching and combinations: Serrano is one of the best at delivering punishing combinations, especially to the body. In her fights against Sarah Mahfoud and Erika Cruz, Serrano’s vicious body shots wore down her opponents, paving the way for her to dominate later rounds. Her ability to mix up her attacks, targeting both the head and body, makes her a very dangerous woman.

Katie Taylor’s weaknesses

Fighting off the back foot: In her fight against Serrano in 2022, Taylor got off to a fast start with strong defensive boxing, fighting largely off the back foot. Increasingly in modern boxing, judges seem to prefer the aggressor in fights, regardless of whether that aggression is affective or not. After a strong start, Taylor struggled in the middle rounds. Serrano’s aggressive pressure and power put Taylor in retreat, and she nearly got stopped in the fifth round. Taylor was visibly shaken by Serrano’s relentless attack, and it took her a few rounds to adjust and fight back.

Fading down the stretch: In Taylor’s first loss against Chantelle Cameron in 2023, Taylor’s gas tank seemed to run low towards the end of the fight. Cameron’s high work-rate and physicality wore Taylor down as the rounds progressed. This was a major factor in her loss, as Taylor’s usual sharpness faded, allowing Cameron to dominate the exchanges. Although Taylor rebounded in the rematch, her performance showed that prolonged aggression can take a toll, especially at this stage of her career.

Amanda Serrano’s weaknesses

Recklessness with aggression: Serrano’s power and aggression are her greatest strengths, but they can also lead to vulnerabilities. While she was dominant in the middle rounds of the first fight, she sometimes overcommitted to her attacks. This left her open to counters, which allowed Taylor to find success later in the fight when she started planting her feet and exchanging. Serrano’s aggressive style can sometimes leave her defence exposed, as she prioritises offence over head-movement and defensive footwork. But this does make for exciting fights and explains why she is a fan-favourite.

Struggling to maintain pace: Although Serrano is known for her relentless pressure, she has occasionally shown a drop in intensity in the later rounds. In the later rounds of the first fight, Serrano slowed down, and Taylor capitalised by landing more accurate counters. Serrano’s difficulty in sustaining the same intensity throughout a 10-round fight, especially against a smart, tactical boxer like Taylor, could be problematic again.

Prediction

There simply has to be a question mark about what remains in the well, should she have to dig that deeply again in this one.

Taylor could get old overnight. She is now at an age when fighters have historically rarely been at their best. Her supporters will point to her proven ability to adapt in rematches and with Serrano’s forward pressure, a close, tactical fight is again possible. If this goes to the cards, a split-decision in either direction would not be a shock.

Taylor will likely attempt to fight off the back foot again, nicking the rounds while avoiding getting in the trenches with Serrano. She could find out that at 38 years old, this is an even bigger challenge than it was two and half years ago. Her powers of recovery that night, after clearly being hurt, were incredible. There simply has to be a question mark about what remains in the well, should she have to dig that deeply again in this one.

Taylor made a strong start back in 2022, but there was some visible slowing by her in the middle rounds. Whether this was her fatiguing, or Serrano stepping up the pressure, the end result was the same. Once she slowed just a fraction, it became Serrano's fight.

Bet365 make this fight a 1/6 shot (1.17 in decimal odds) to go the distance. Taylor is a slight odds-on favourite at around 4/6 (1.67) in their Draw-No-Bet market.

PaddyPower like Taylor in the rematch and you can back Serrano at 11/8 with them (2.38 decimal). Further, they have it even shorter, at 1/7, to go the distance (1.14 decimal). That explains why a Serrano win inside the distance is 13/2 (7.50 decimal) with them (a 13% implied probability).

If and when the Exact Method Of Victory markets come out, there could be some sense in looking at either boxer to win a split-decision.

We feel that Serrano should be favoured. She is the "house fighter" here, one of Jake Paul's biggest allies. A Serrano win will also set up a huge trilogy fight down the line.

It is almost certainly going to steal the show and whatever disappointment viewers feel about the main event featuring Paul and Tyson, should at least some way be mitigated by the entertainment that Taylor and Serrano will provide.

We like the Serrano price as the underdog here and would pick her to come through at odds of 11/8. We would also have a side-bet on her to win inside the distance and the seemingly generous price of 13/2 (7.50).