WBO International Super-Lightweight Title

By David Hipkin

Published 22nd October 2024 22:06

Updated 24th October 2024 16:19

Jack Catterall vs Regis Prograis

The Catterall vs Prograis fight on 26 October 2024, will be broadcast live in the UK on DAZN. The global streaming platform has exclusive rights to the event, which takes place at Co-op Live Arena in the Etihad Campus area of Manchester. UK viewers can access the event either via a subscription to DAZN.

The purists are in for a treat on Saturday night.

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Introduction

This super-lightweight contest (for the WBO International Super-Lightweight Title) features the technical and disciplined Jack Catterall (29-1, 13 KOs) against the explosive and aggressive Regis Prograis (29-2, 24 KOs). Scheduled for 12 rounds, the bout is expected to be a tactical showdown of skill versus power, with Catterall looking to outbox Prograis and avoid his knockout threat. Easier said than done...

Regis Prograis: --- It’s one step closer to becoming a three-time champion. You know, that’s something I really, really want. ---

Jack Catterall: keys to success

Catterall is known for his superb technical skills, sharp counterpunching, and ability to control distance. Boxing out of Chorley ABC from the age of 10, he compiled an amateur record of 48–18. He is one of those fighters who looks completely at home in the squared-circle. His recent victory over Josh Taylor in their May rematch showcased his strengths. Although he doesn't possess significant knockout power, with a KO rate shy of 50%, Catterall makes up for it with precision, patience, and ring intelligence. His sole defeat came under very controversial circumstances against Josh Taylor nearly three years ago and at 31 now, he is surely in his prime.

Since the reverse to Taylor, Catterall has enjoyed three consecutive Unamimous Decisions, with the last two being wide on all of the cards. There have been three 117-111 cards in the last six scorecards over his two recent fights during the last 12 months.

Catterall’s main strategy will likely focus on keeping Prograis at bay with his effective jab and movement. Prograis thrives on aggression and applying pressure, but Catterall’s defense and ability to neutralize offensive fighters could frustrate him. The longer the fight goes, the more it will favor Catterall’s controlled pace, making a decision win the most likely outcome.

Regis Prograis: no formality

Prograis lost a Majority Decition to a “prime” Josh Taylor in 2019. And Taylor would go on to lose to Catteral. Is that a form-line that means Prograis cannot upset Catteral? Absolutely not; that sort of form-line analysis goes out of the window when it comes to boxing matchups.

Prograis is a two-time world champion with 24 stoppages (from 29 wins). While he is coming off a decision loss to Devin Haney, his power remains his greatest asset. Prograis will look to close the distance and test Catterall’s ability to withstand his power, particularly in the early rounds. However, Catterall’s tactical discipline will likely help him avoid unnecessary exchanges and manage the fight from a distance.

The fight was originally scheduled for August this year but Catterall had to postpone, just a few weeks before the contest after sustaining an injury. The A-Side in this fight, Catterall has had further time to shake off the injury and come in at a hundred percent fit. For the 35-year old Prograis, the delay is unlikely to have enhanced his chances.

Everything in this business, everything, is about timing.

Prediction

This will be Prograis’ 32nd fight as a professional, compared to fight number 31 for Catteral. Both fight out of a southpaw stance. And they have both been in the pro ranks since 2012 debuts, but that is where the similarities end. With Prograis turning 36 in the new year, he is closer to the end of the road while Catterall is very much in the middle of his career.

This feels like a great piece of match-making. To quote Barry McGuigan: "Everything in this business, everything, is about timing."

Given their styles, the most probable outcome is Catterall winning by decision and this is unlikely to be a view that shocks anyone. His ability to stick to a game-plan, combined with his defensive prowess, should allow him to avoid Prograis’ knockout power. Catterall is unlikely to engage in risky exchanges, instead focusing on outboxing his opponent over twelve rounds. We have seen this many times and I expect viewers will be reminded of his prowess to nullify his opponent, and at times to make it look “easy” to win rounds.

With the potential for Prograis to emulate his hero, Muhammad Ali, and become a three-time world champion with a victory over Catteral catapulting him towards that goal, he certainly sounds motivated in the pre-fight press conferences.

But coming off an overwhelming shutout against Haney (120-107 on all three cards) at the end of last year, there could be some scar-tissue in Manchester on Saturday night, especially when he realises how much of a problem Catterall is to solve.

Catteral is a 1.25 shot (1/4 fractional) to win anytime which is short and will only suit the big-hitters. Not surprisingly, it is also odds-on for Catterall to win a decision at 1.57 decimal odds (4/7 fractional).

Further, Catteral to win a Unanimous Decision is also odds-on at 1.72 (8/11 fractional). But fighting at home, in the prime of his career, bolstered by the revenge over Taylor and with big-fights and potential big-money ahead of him, that is the prediction for Saturday night.

Catteral to win a Unanimous Decision @ 8/11 (1.72 decimal)

Latest odds update

The Exact Method of Victory market has subsequently been updated and the Jack Catterall price for a Unanimous Decision has drifted out to even-money. Having picked that as the bet at 8/11 (1.72), we would top that position up again at evens.