From across the pond, Johnny Wright looks ahead to another huge fight at New York's Madison Square Garden. 

Stevenson to win, to look the best he ever has, beating Teofimo Lopez more widely than is expected. This fight is going to be Shakur's biggest win, his major coming-out party. I do not expect this fight to be very close.

TEOFIMO LOPEZ vs. SHAKUR STEVENSON

This is an intriguing boxing match between Teofimo Lopez and Shakur Stevenson that really gets 2026 underway with a bang. These are two fighters that both have considerable upsides, and is expected to be a good one. Shakur Stevenson is rightfully favored [at the time of writing: Shakur Stevenson is at decimal odds of 1.27 (= 4/15; -375) with Teofimo Lopez available to back at 3.70 (≈ 11/4; +275)], and most people are considering Teofimo a very live underdog which makes for a compelling match between these two elite-level boxers. In assessing this fight, and looking back at their respective styles, proven skill levels and individual weak spots, it seems to appear that this fight leans in one direction a good bit more strongly than it does in the other direction, so let's polish off the Crystal Ball and take a look at what it reflects about this fight.

TEOFIMO LOPEZ

Teofimo Lopez is a very talented fighter, but is reputed to "fight to the level of his competition" which at this point of his career is certainly not factual. However, it is what most Teo Lopez fans say when they are asked for their thoughts on his far less than stellar ring performances against several fighters he was expected and favored to beat. I am not an inherent admirer of fighters that fight to the level of the competition, because that is often an excuse that is made for a fighter that simply struggles with the style of those lesser fighters that are considered beneath his level. Teo also has confidence and mental issues in regards to his fights, which he has shown us a number of times. The most undeniable evidence of this was when he asked his corner "Do I Still Got It?" in a fight in which he was a huge favorite struggling mightily against the +500 underdog Sandor Martin, who had also dropped him in the 2nd round of their fight (and arguably also in the 7th round).

Sandor Martin is a solid enough fighter, and is also a clever southpaw in regards to knowing how to utilize the ring. Stevenson is a southpaw, who is a much better and more talented version of Martin, and can do everything Martin can do much better. Stevenson also has the capabilities to do many additional things that Martin can not do too. In analyzing the Martin fight as compared to this upcoming fight with Shakur, I do not believe Teo to be a fighter who knows how to best utilize the ring unless he is fighting a fighter whose style he is completely comfortable with. The evidence of that is in Teo's perfectly executed and dominant victories over Josh Taylor and Vasily Lomachenko, in which Teo looked invincible. That is the polar opposite of how he looked against a few other fighters he was favored to beat. In my assessments of his fights, it seems clear to me that Teo is not comfortable with "boxers". In fact, Teo has unintentionally admitted that himself after his fight with Sandor Martin, when he claimed that he struggled as much as he did because Martin was "running". However, the fight results showed that Martin was surely not running, and gave as good as he received in their VERY close and controversial fight.

The feeling on my end is that Teo will not be comfortable in this upcoming fight and will get quite frustrated with Shakur's style. It is also worth noting that all Teo's biggest and most impressive wins were wide and clear decisions in which he was never truly challenged, and in which it was quite obvious he was going to win (Lomachenko and Taylor). Teo did not win those fights by coming through fire, but rather he won those fights virtually out of the gate, with obvious domination from the very beginning and that domination in those two highly impressive victories over Lomachenko and Taylor is admittedly notable. However, it is also quite obvious that Lopez can get visibly frustrated and lose confidence VERY quickly when he is fighting in a highly competitive fight, which has happened to him too often for anyone to be truly confident in how he will perform when he fights.

SHAKUR STEVENSON

On the other side of the ring will be Shakur Stevenson. Shakur has been accused of being a boring fighter, and not being willing to engage. This can seemingly be true, but part of what makes him boring is that Shakur has never struggled against any opponent he has ever faced. And he has also chosen not to put himself at unnecessary risk in these fights that he was easily dominating, and admittedly, that can be understandably frustrating for the fans who are viewing his fights. But this is a boxing match, and while entertainment is a huge boost for a boxer's popularity and ability to sell fights and make money, it is NOT at all related to that boxer's ability to win or lose their fights. The results of boxing matches are based on talent, skills and style matchups and not entertainment value, although the combination of the two is an extremely major bonus, but certainly not a requirement for winning a fight.

However, with all that being said, before writing off Shakur's ability to be an entertaining fighter, lets remember that in his very last fight against William Zepeda, Shakur decided to give the fans what they wanted. He stood toe-to-toe with the undefeated, hard-hitting, high-volume offensive fighter Zepeda, and was able to dominate that fight just as easily as all his others, while fighting in a style that he had never done in his previous fights. Before the Shakur vs Zepeda fight, most fans were expecting Shakur to fight defensively, and to try to stay away from Zepeda's high offensive output and power. But Shakur surprised everyone when he stood toe-to-toe with Zepeda and beat him very widely at his own game in a very impressive performance. The truth was that nobody had seen Shakur stand and trade punches like that in any of his previous fights, as he always seemed to fight in a "safety first" style, but after hearing all the criticism of his style of fighting, Shakur decided to prove that he has a lot more in his bag of tricks than people ever knew.

Shakur said after the fight that he could fight in the "stand and trade" style any time he wanted, but in the interview after the fight, he said he would not be fighting in that style again, because he is more comfortable boxing, and had only fought in that style to silence his doubters. That being said, he proved he could fight VERY well when standing and trading, while still capitalizing on his considerable ring IQ to full effect. In this upcoming fight with Lopez, the expectation here is that Shakur is going to be at his very best and will fight in any style he needs to, which he has proven he can do effortlessly.

OVERVIEW

In looking at the potential result for this fight, it is evident on this end, that in addition to Teofimo Lopez's three best wins (Lomachenko, Taylor and Barboza) those three boxers were never really able to settle in and make a competitive fight of it with him. In those fights, Teo did not have any reason to lose confidence, or mentally "check out" sporadically during the fight, as he was dominating them in almost every round, and without any questions.

I do not think it is a stretch to say that Teo will not have that luxury against Shakur Stevenson.

If we look at Teo's three "worst" fights, in my opinion they need to be analyzed as I believe they might be telling us more than Teo's three "best" fights. The reason for that is the level of competition he struggled with in a couple of them. And they were also the only fights that he was ever challenged in, and he did struggle greatly through them and seemed to lose focus in every one of them.

The fact Lopez lost to a below average and very overrated fighter in George Kambosos, who has never actually done much in boxing other than beat Lopez can not be ignored. His struggles with Sandor Martin were also enough to get himself knocked down in the 2nd round by the very light punching Martin. In fact, Teo was also saved from another possible knockdown in the 7th round by the referee who ruled a seeming knockdown as a slip. That was two times in that fight where the light-hitting Martin, had Lopez hit the canvas, despite only one being ruled a knockdown. That fight shows us that Teo CAN be knocked down, and it doesn't have to be a puncher who does it either, so let's not assume that Shakur can't do it too. The end result of that fight was that Teo's performance seemed to mentally make him break and ask his corner "if he still had it? ", which is simply NOT a good indication of a strong boxing mindset.

As an encore to those two below-average performances, Teo was clearly defeated by Jamaine Ortiz in the eyes of everyone BUT the judges, as is very customary in today's political world of boxing. But one can not ignore how poorly Teo actually fought in his three weakest fights, which also happened to be the only three fights where his opponents truly tested him. But Shakur, while being boring to many, has never once fought poorly nor has he been involved in any close or poor fights at all, let alone three poor fights. To reiterate this important point, those three poor fights were Teo's loss to Kambosos, his controversial win over Sandor Martin who arguably knocked Teo down twice, and the seeming robbery in his victory over Jamaine Ortiz that had all the fans in the arena booing the results when it was announced, and booing Teo when he went to speak after the fight.

I believe that Lopez's biggest drawback is more "inside his head" than "inside the ring". And if there is any fighter out there who can frustrate an opponent, I believe Shakur Stevenson has to be at the very top of that list. Lopez has never fought ANY fighter who even approaches the ring IQ of Shakur Stevenson. And I do not believe he will mentally be able to handle his frustration with Shakur during this upcoming fight and I feel strongly about that. If we are being honest, the truth is that Lomachenko, the aging Josh Taylor, and Barboza are surely not fighters that can boast of having high ring IQs. And, as I see it, this fight will be the first time Teo will be facing anybody with the array of skills and ring IQ of his opponent Shakur Stevenson.

THE CRYSTAL BALL'S PREDICTION

The reflection in the Crystal Ball has been a little cloudy for a while, but it is coming in completely clearly now, and it is reflecting the following result:

Shakur Stevenson To Win; and to look the best he ever has and beat Teofimo Lopez more widely than is expected.

The Crystal Ball reflects that this fight is going to be Shakur's biggest win, his major coming-out party and does not expect this fight to be very close. It expects Shakur to dance and move away from trouble when Teo tries to pressure him, and to also move in and out while scoring with quick, effective, clean and sharp offense and hitting Teo without much trouble. And it also reflects that the frustration Teo feels from all that is going to affect his psychological mindset throughout the fight, and subsequently affect his performance. It is also reflecting that Teo might possibly claim an injury on his stool and this fight might end up being stopped at some point as this fight goes on, if this fight is as one-sided for Shakur as the crystal ball expects it to be.

It reflects Shakur winning more clearly than most are expecting and also reflects that Shakur does not have to worry about Teo's offense or his power, as Teo only has one TKO victory in over six years, and that one victory was more than three years ago. It was also against Pedro Campa who had already been TKOed a few years before that by an 11-8 journeyman, so that fact should put Teo's one stoppage in the last six plus years in perspective.

And to be honest, I haven't personally seen any evidence of above-average power from Teo Lopez. I have certainly seen evidence of his talent, but I believe Teo can only be at his best against a certain type of opposition that has predictable styles. Loma, Taylor and even Barboza all only know one way to fight, and while they are all very talented in their own right, they are also quite predictable. And even Loma, despite his movement and activity is predictable in his movements, and none of those aforementioned fighters have ever shown evidence of having a plan B in any of their fights.

In comparison, Shakur has many options and many plans. I do not believe Teo has any idea what to expect in this fight, and I think that is going to make him uncomfortable from the beginning. I am personally also at a loss as to what style Shakur will employ in this fight, but I do know that Shakur has an entire bag of tricks to choose from. I view Lopez as an extremely talented, but ultimately one-trick pony who can psychologically be beaten in fights that do not go his way, which I have witnessed three times thus far, and I feel confident that Shakur is going to expose that in this upcoming fight. If Shakur can stand and trade with Zepeda's offensive output and power as well as he did, I feel very confident he can certainly do the same against Teofimo Lopez without any issues.

I also will never forget Teo complaining after the Sandor Martin fight that he was not able to effectively fight Martin because Martin was "running" all the time in their fight. But Martin was NOT running, and in fact Martin was hitting Teo too, and gave Teo just about as much as he received. In my estimation, that statement from Teo was his way of saying he is much more comfortable fighting a relatively stationary and/or predictable target who is willing to robotically trade with him the whole fight than someone who can box him with their skills AND their brains. And, if Teo thinks he struggled with Sandor Martin for the reason that he falsely believed that Martin's clever boxing moves were "running", then Teo is going to be in for an EXTREMELY long, difficult night against Shakur Stevenson, as the Crystal Ball reflects it.

Again, I reiterate that the prediction here is that Shakur wins this fight clearly, cleanly, widely and without any controversy. And I also expect Shakur to surprise a lot of people with just how well he handles Lopez in this fight.

THE #CRYSTALBALLBOXING BETTING

In a departure from previous #CrystalBallBoxing columns, the Crystal Ball is not going to make specific betting suggestions for this particular fight due to the fact that betting "Shakur to win" is paying -370 to win [bettors might find a slightly more generous line if underdog money comes in before the first bell].

However, it IS going to give several detailed options of props with their pros and cons. And then I will leave it up to the reader to decide if they agree with me, disagree with me or think I belong in a mental institution. So, if the reader ultimately believes that the world is safe with me wandering around in it freely, then let's move ahead and look at some prop bets and their pros and cons.

THE TWO MOST BASIC AND OBVIOUS BETS

#1) One way to bet this is exactly as the Crystal Ball predicted it, and to simply bet "Shakur Stevenson to win" (at -370, if that payout is sufficient for you).

#2) A second way to bet this is to put "Shakur Stevenson to Win" at -370 into any parlay of your choice including another fight or fights that you personally feel strongly about, in order to fatten up the payout. [There are currently dozens of live selections in The SharpBetting Boxing App.]

PROS AND CONS OF ADDITIONAL PROP BETS

#3) Shakur Stevenson by Decision (currently -240). On paper, this seems the most logical prop bet for this fight. It is my opinion that making THIS prop bet would depend on how much the bettor is staking on the fight. If a bettor is betting $100 at -240 then they should get back $141.67 on this bet, which is a profit of $41.67. In comparison, if a bettor bets $100 on the straight bet of Shakur Stevenson to Win at -370, they should get back $127.03 , which is a profit of $27.03. That is only a difference of $14.63, so let's talk a little more about that.

The bettor should be aware that by taking the prop bet of "Shakur Stevenson by Decision" that for every $100 they spend that would only be getting a $14.64 higher profit that they would get if they were to bet "Shakur Stevenson to Win". Obviously, the more a bettor spends as an investment, then the more the differential between those two profit amounts would differ, and this decision is up to the individual bettor and how much they are planning to stake on the fight. They should ask themselves if it is worth an extra $14.64 per $100 bet to limit their bet to the prop of "Shakur Stevenson to win by decision" but risk losing the bet if Shakur Stevenson should get a stoppage or if Teofimo Lopez should get disqualified.

IMPORTANT: Those taking the above prop bet of "Shakur Stevenson to Win By Decision" should also keep in mind that if the fight should somehow end in a Draw that they will get their entire investment returned if they make the straight Moneyline bet of "Shakur Stevenson To Win". But if they bet this prop bet of "Shakur Stevenson to Win By Decision" they will NOT get their money returned in the event of a Draw, because all prop bets are considered "method of victory" bets.

So you should also ask yourself if the extra $14.64 you will get back in profit for every $100 invested for the result of "Shakur Stevenson by Decision" is worth the risk of losing your entire investment in the event the fight turns out to be a Draw or if Shakur Stevenson should win by a KO/TKO/DQ. That is something you should ponder very carefully before assuming the result would absolutely HAVE to be a decision if Shakur wins, as boxing can be VERY unpredictable.

#4) In this fight, that prop bet is only paying -600, which completely negates the positives of betting it. Therefore, I am not including that bet among these prop bets other than telling you to AVOID making this prop bet. In many cases, making the prop bet of "The Fight To Go The Distance" can quite often pay the same money as picking one of the fighters by decision, and in those circumstances it can be a GREAT bet as you ALSO win if the fight is a draw. But that is NOT the case in this fight due to the -600 odds, so I just wanted to clarify why this prop bet should NOT be made in this particular fight.

#5) Shakur Stevenson by KO/TKO/DQ (currently +700). Now before anybody jumps the gun and thinks this is impossible, let's utilize a little odds reading along with some foresight here. I'd like to make everyone aware, that as surprising as I'd guess this will seem to most of you, the odds on Shakur to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+700) are paying LESS than the odds for Teo Lopez to win by KO/TKO/DQ (currently +800).Think about that!

This tells us that more bettors are expecting Shakur to win by KO/TKO/DQ than are expecting Teo to win by KO/TKO/DQ, which is a bit unexpected. And when odds are a bit surprising like this, it is always something that any bettor should at least ponder. The main reason those odds are a bit unexpected is that Teo is supposed to be the one with more power in this fight. In fact, many consider Teo's size and power to be the main reason to support Teo in this fight, so those odds are a bit telling (at this moment in time).

Keep in mind that a bet on Shakur by KO/TKO/DQ is taking much more of a chance than betting Shakur to win by decision (on paper, anyway), but as is usual, that extra risk is also paying considerably more at +700. And, for the record, in this writer's opinion Shakur by a KO/TKO/DQ is surely not an impossibility.

5a) I can not personally envision Shakur scoring a one punch KO, but I CAN envision Teo psychologically getting frustrated with his lack of success against Shakur's style and mentally giving up during the fight. In my opinion, if a slightly above average fighter like Sandor Martin could make Teo question his boxing ability as he did, then I believe Shakur will feel like the bane of Teo's existence during this fight due to Teo's seemingly uneven mindset. It would be at the point when Teo's frustration peaks and he mentally gets discouraged that I could envision Shakur landing a barrage of punches, and the fight getting stopped. That is not a prediction of what I think WILL happen, but it is a pondering of what I think COULD happen (at the price of +700 for a bettor).

5b) I can also envision another scenario where Teo's corner stops the fight citing an injury of some kind, especially if they can tell that Teo has mentally given up. I think it's possible that they'd feel it would be better to end the fight that way, rather than to let Teo continue to be outboxed if he is losing widely, or being shut out. Again, that is a pondering of what I think COULD happen, and not a prediction (also +700, of course).

5c) I can also imagine yet ANOTHER scenario where Teo gets himself disqualified, as the ATG Roy Jones did in his first fight with Montell Griffin, when Griffin was arguably beating him going into the 9th round. As great as Roy is, it was evident that Roy preferred to take the DQ loss rather than a potential "real" loss on the scorecards or even a possible knockout, as Montell Griffin was fighting brilliantly in that first fight.

Another example is Mike Tyson who we all know bit part of Evander Holyfield's ear off in their 1997 rematch after he was clearly getting beaten up and lost the first three rounds. The first few rounds is when Tyson was always at his best too and he was clearly being dominated even worse by Holyfield than he was in their first fight. So Tyson decided it was better to lose by a DQ in that fashion than to get KOed or TKOed yet again, and in a potentially worse manner than in their first fight.

In addition to those two examples, the ATG Roberto Duran also found a way to quit in his famous "No Mas" fight against Sugar Ray Leonard in the rematch, rather than let Leonard embarrass him and out box him as Leonard was very clearly doing. If you are ruling out the possibility of Teofimo Lopez quitting, I would at least think about it a while and be sure before you rule it out entirely. Just remember, that although Teo is a talented fighter, he is also a fighter whose mindset made him capable of asking his own corner "if he still had it" after running into adversity in his fight with Martin. So, it might be worth at least mulling this possibility over, if nothing else, and again, this is a scenario that I believe COULD happen, so it is worth thinking about, at the very least.

#6) Fight NOT to Go The Distance (currently +400). This bet depends on how much the person betting this fight agrees with the Crystal Ball. But there are certain advantages to this bet to heavily weigh anyway, in addition to the fact that this bet would pay out if either fighter should win by a stoppage. And one major advantage is that this bet will pay out in the event that the "fight does not go the distance" for reasons other than one of the fighter's scoring a KO/TKO or getting DQed too.

This bet will also pay out in the event the fight is stopped early due to an accidental head butt, and they have to go to the scorecards and the fight is a technical decision. But betting the KO/TKO/DQ on either of the fighters, would not pay out if the fight is stopped by an accidental head butt and goes to the scorecards (as the KO/TKO/DQ is a "method of victory" bet too).

The fight can also be stopped early and not go the distance for other reasons too, so that is a major selling point of getting +400 and having "both" fighters by stoppage or DQ in addition to getting paid out if the fight is stopped for reasons like an accidental head-butt, or any other unexpected reason that causes the fight not to go the distance. So this prop bet covers a lot more than just one of the fighters to get a KO/TKO/DQ, but pays out +400, rather than +700 (Shakur stoppage) or +800 (Teo stoppage).

SUMMARY

To conclude, the #CrystalBallBoxing pick is: Shakur Stevenson to win emphatically at -370.

I wish you all much success in betting this fight in whatever way you feel is the best. Additionally I hope that something I said or pointed out in this fight might be able to help benefit you in a positive and profitable way $$$.

GOOD LUCK, GOOD HEALTH and ALL THE BEST ALWAYS --- Johnny Wright, Kentucky

 

 

 

 

 

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