The New SharpBetting Boxing Service
The Editorial: Matias vs Smith
To start this off, in the Matias vs Smith fight there is some nervousness in boxing betting circles about the judges. The fight will be in New York at the Barclays Center, and that and the surrounding areas in Brooklyn are very much a Puerto Rican and African-American area. And in the sport of boxing that will make Matias the HUGE favorite with the crowd and very likely the ref and judges too, not to mention our friend “the business of boxing” itself, as #boxing has always been very kind to Matias as they surely like him because he is an exciting fighter who scores alot of KOs/TKOs.
In Matias's last fight, he fought Albert Puello, and the judges gave the VERY close fight to Matias. It was a fight that it seemed most people thought Puello had arguably won. Matias also lost 3 fights before that to Liam Paro. The one thing Puello and Paro have in common is that they are both southpaws, and Dalton Smith is NOT a southpaw- so one might think Matias was a bit vulnerable due to the stylistic difference... however...
Matias did NOT struggle with the southpaw style at all when he comprehensively beat the unbeaten southpaw Shojahon Ergashev by a 6th round TKO in his fight right before he clearly lost to Liam Paro.
For that reason we can not attribute those fights ending in a loss and a highly controversial decision for Matias due to his opponents being southpaw, but rather due to the fact that they were higher-level fighters than all his previous opponents.
Matias also had another fight that was quite competitive with the lower level fighter, Gabriel Gollaz Valenzuela - until Matias TKOed him - and Valenzuela was orthodox. It is for those reasons, among some others, that in assessing all Matias's recent fights extending back over 2 years and 5 fights, we see gradual signs of slippage in Matias as his opposition improved. In addition to that, one can't help but notice that 2 out of Matias's last 4 fights against two very top-level fighters went the distance, after he had knocked out 20 of his first 21 opponents. That might show that he is not the same KO/TKO type fighter when he faces top-level competition.
In addition, Matias tested positive and popped dirty for this fight with Dalton Smith, and suddenly there was much confusion behind the scenes with various explanations from the highly political #Boxing media. And they are letting the fight continue, but we must keep in mind that #Boxing LOVES Matias because of his exciting fights and high KO/TKO rate, but we can not overlook the fact that he has NOT scored one of his trademark KO/TKOs against any top-level fighters.
Regardless of whatever "really" happened, and what got swept under the rug, Matias did test positive for trace amounts of Ostarine for a reason, and that reason is likely not due to the reason of "contamination" given by the highly political WBC but the truth is more likely that Matias tested positive for Ostarine because he took it as he might've felt he needed an edge for his fight with Smith [in opinion of some observers].
As we see it, if Smith can fight in his inherent style, and dictate the pace, then it is possible that Matias will struggle with Smith. The feeling here is that Smith can beat Matias in this fight. That is a medium confidence pick and the reason for picking Smith to win is due to a number of variables including their respective styles, combined with Matias's limited gas tank. Matias usually starts slow and ends slow too-- so Smith will likely need to win those early rounds, as he can't afford to sacrifice them or start slowly. Smith will need to have them in the bank, as Matias might come on in the middle of the fight quite strongly and then we look for another momentum swing as Smith to comes back later in the fight.
Again, there is concern about the judging which is likely to favor Matias, especially given #boxingpolitics coupled with the location of the fight being at the Barclays Center. Furhter, the ref will surely be favoring Matias too- so, much like the fight in which Crawford beat Canelo- the question is if Smith can win WIDELY enough that he will get the decision, if it goes to the cards.
On paper, it is obvious that Smith has not fought at as high a level as Matias, but conversely, Matias LOST when he fought at that higher level, and arguably got a gift in his other higher-level fight.
The fact that Matias has fought at a much higher level than Smith has in 2 of his last 4 recent fights does not mean as much as one might think, when they consider that he lost one of those fights, and was given an arguable gift in the other one, which was his very last fight (vs. Puello). Either way, he did not "clearly" win the Puello fight in his last outing and lost outright to Paro.
So, the levels of these two fighters might be alot closer than some are thinking. And the question remains whether Smith can win widely enough to get a decision or even a possible stoppage?
Well, as we say here, with gun to head: we think Smith can do that and expect it to be close until the last 1/4 of the fight- so if it the fight goes the distance, the decision may well be controversial.
- So the pick here is Smith to beat Matias.
It is also not lost on us that Matias slows down late in all his longer fights. If one doubts that fact, please consider that he lost rounds 11 and 12 to Puello on ALL the judges scorecards, and previously lost rounds 10,11 and 12 to Paro on ALL the judge's scorecards too. That is NOT a coincidence, but rather, that is a fighter with questionable cardio to go 12 rounds, at his best.
In an interesting comparison, Smith scored a knockdown in rounds 11 AND 12 in his very last fight. And that could make this fight very interesting, assuming it gets into the later rounds. If one fighter always slows down late and the other fighter gets stronger in the later rounds then it could be a big problem for the fighter who slows down in the later rounds; and that accusation is pointed at Matias.
In weighing all this up, their respective styles, with gun to head, the pick here would be Smith to win. And quite possibly by late stoppage given Matias's propensity to slow down late in his fights, compared to the fact that Smith has proven his power can carry up to and including the 11th and even 12th round too.
Our pick is Smith to win at 2.3 decimal odds in the MoneyLine (+130 US Odds) that can be overlapped with a small prop bet on Smith by KO/TKO/DQ at 5.5 decimal odds (9/2; +450), if one chooses. [6-Jan-2026]
As often is the case and particularly here, please be mindful of the DRAW possibility due to boxing politics in this fight should it go the distance, and use your best judgment when betting.
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