Teofimo Lopez faces Arnold Barboza Jr. on Friday night in Times Square, NYC

Hi guys, and welcome back to another #WRIGHTORWRONG column. I hope you've all been well, enjoying the great boxing and winning some great money too. So, as the boxing seasons is now heating up a bit, let's take a look at the Teofimo Lopez vs Arnold Barboza fight coming up this weekend and see if the end result of this article will end up being WRIGHT or WRONG in this very intriguing match-up between Lopez and Barboza.

TEOFIMO LOPEZ (quick overview)

Teofimo Lopez is one very hard fighter to figure on multiple levels. Lopez has looked like a truly top P4P fighter against Josh Taylor and Vasyl Lomachenko, but has also looked like nothing more than a very average contender in his fights against Sandor Martin (who he barely beat, and many thought he lost to), George Kambosos (an ordinary fighter who he DID lose to) and Jamaine Ortiz (who everyone thought beat him widely and got robbed of the decision).

In fact Jamaine Ortiz beat him so clearly in the eyes of virtually everyone that Lopez got harshly booed after the fight, and told the crowd three words that I will not even print here, but let's just say that he cursed the entire venue out with these three words because they booed the decision so relentlessly. It was a great moment for entertainment value, but not that great a moment for the sport of boxing.

Lopez has only fought two fights in the last two years since his impressive victory against Josh Taylor. In those two fights, he looked awful and rightfully should have lost to Jamaine Ortiz, and in his last fight he easily decisioned the HUGELY outclassed Steve Clagett, a fighter with 7 losses and 2 draws on his record, in a boring, unimpressive decision. The fight was a yawner and went as expected, except that most felt that Lopez came up short as he was not able to get a stoppage against this washed journeyman. So the main question I think we need to ask ourselves is what can we expect from Lopez in his fight with the very talented Barboza??

ARNOLD BARBOZA JR.(quick overview)

In the other corner from Lopez this weekend will be Arnold Barboza Jr and while Barboza has not had the same career highs that Lopez has had, he has also not quite had the same lows either, which is also enhanced by the fact that most of Teo's fights were considered higher profile than Barboza's fights were.

Barboza has had some excellent fights against some very solid, top level fighters, and though a few were close, he still clearly won all of them in the eyes of the fans and also won them without any controversy with the one huge exception of the victory he was gifted in his obviously wide loss to Sean McComb (an outrageously bad decision)

I am going to take a leap here and give Barboza a pass for his loss to Sean McComb due to the fact that McComb is a southpaw, in addition to being a very underrated, slick fighter. My reason for giving Barboza a pass for that fight is certainly not solely due to McComb simply being a southpaw, but it is combined with the fact that Barbosa has never lost before or after, let alone lost any fight THAT widely.

In addition, I also am considering the fact that it was clear that Barboza looked unable to get comfortable in that fight with McComb and was very out of sorts in the way he fought that fight, so I am giving Barboza a pass for that poor fight, which is the ONLY fight Barboza ever rightfully should have lost thus far in his career.

However, in contrast to the pass I am giving Barboza??--- I am simply NOT able to come up with any reasons at all to give the outrageously inconsistent Lopez a pass for any of his very pedestrian ring performances of late, which, in truth, has been ALL of his ring performances, aside from his two ABSOLUTELY GREAT fights against Lomachenko and Taylor. In truth?--- Teofimo Lopez has been GREAT in TWO fights and has been average and ordinary in ALL the other fights before, during and since then and there is the dilemma in trying to figure out this upcoming fight.

LOPEZ vs. BARBOZA (THE FIGHT and THE VARIABLES)

In weighing the variables involved in this fight, I must say that I rate Barboza's victory over Jack Catterall VERY highly, as Catterall is a terrific fighter AND a southpaw but despite Barboza's with McComb's southpaw stance, Barboza showed truly great improvement by beating an extremely top level southpaw champion in Jack Catterall. Caterall was undefeated " in reality" though not on paper (but as we all know, most everyone thought he beat Josh Taylor in their first fight) .

Catterall had also just come off a VERY impressive unanimous decision win over Josh Taylor in their rematch, and the fact Barboza beat him in Catterall's first fight after Catterall's defining victory as he did, and considering the way he took away Catterall's strengths as he did in their fight was truly very impressive and has been Barboza's best performance so far. In my eyes, that victory over Catterall was a criminally underrated win for Barboza, and that was in Barbosa's very last fight too. In comparison?-- Barboza's finest fight was his LAST fight as he seems to be getting even better and Lopez's best fights were TWO Years ago (Josh Taylor) and FOUR AND A HALF years ago against Loma. That is one very major point to consider in looking at this fight objectively.

In considering all that, I must say that I consider Barboza " in his fighting prime " going into this fight with Lopez, but Lopez is a huge question mark. In addition, I have seen no evidence that Barboza has any of the seemingly unbalanced mindset issues that have been attributed to Lopez. Barboza is alot more grounded and is also alot more consistent in what we could expect from him in the ring, and I view Barboza Jr. as a consistent, extremely talented, still improving and very underrated fighter.

In looking at the variables in regards to Lopez??---- well, I do not think they are as flattering to him, as Barboza's are to Barboza.

It is impossible to argue against the fact that Teofimo Lopez is simply inconsistent in the ring, and while he looked like he was one of the best P4P fighters in boxing in his Taylor & Lomachenko fights, he has looked very beatable in literally ALL his other fights, and he even looked very beatable DURING those years in between fighting Loma and Taylor too.

If we exclude Loma and Taylor, the vast majority would likely argue that he was beaten in his ONLY other THREE tough fights which, as a reminder, were the fights I mentioned earlier against Kambosos ( in which Lopez DID get the deserved loss), Sandor Martin (the public was spilt on this one but Lopez looked awful in it ) and Ortiz (the fight where the decision was so bad that Lopez ended up cursing the entire audience due to their booing of the horrible decision and his poor ring performance).

In trying to figure out the reasons for Lopez's inconsistencies?--- There are very few options that I can think of other than considering 1) He got lucky against Loma and Taylor ORR Loma and Taylor had VERY bad nights -- 2) He has mental issues in regards to his fights (in my opinion he does, but more on that later) --- 3) He can only fight to the level of his opposition --- ORRR??

The only other thought I have is that Lopez is one of those orthodox fighter rarities that is able to feast on top Southpaw boxers, but struggles against top orthodox fighters. Yes, I am aware that to some casuals that might sound odd, but it surely does happen in boxing. The fact is that I can honestly not think of many other reasons that a fighter can look like a top P4P fighter and a future HOFer in his two biggest victories against two of the top P4P fighters who were BOTH southpaws, and then look so utterly ordinary, average, and very beatable in ALL the rest of his fights against lesser opposition who happened to be orthodox fighters.

In looking at Lopez's TWO defining wins that literally established his reputation as being one of the very top boxers?--- I will repeat that both of them were fought against southpaws ( Loma and Taylor) and one can not ignore that he seemed VERY comfortable and VERY dominant in fighting against that southpaw stance.

And, yes, he did struggle with Martin, who is a southpaw, but as I see it, Martin was very underrated at the time, and in addition Martin fights in a much different style and is very clever, sneaky and cute in the ring, which troubled Lopez. And Martin also fights quite differently than Loma and Taylor, who were top P4P fighters, but whose moves in the ring are a lot more predictable than Martin's moves are.

I must also point out a fact that I alluded to earlier and has been overlooked by many, in my opinion. Lopez's GREAT victory over Loma was FOUR AND A HALF years ago, and Lopez's other GREAT victory over Taylor is one month shy of being TWO full years ago. And I do NOT think those two facts should be overlooked when one is assessing this fight, especially if they are planning to bet on it, especially as Lopez has not looked too good in any of his other fights at all.

Now?--- during that stretch since his GREAT Loma victory in 2020 until my writing of this article?--- Teofimo Lopez has had only SIX fights and in those SIX fights since Loma?-- THREE of them were not good AT ALL and Teo arguably lost ALL THREE. As I said earlier, Teo lost one of them (to the VERY average Kambosos), arguably lost a second one of them (Sandor Martin) and CLEARLY should have WIDELY lost a THIRD one of them in the eyes of most everyone (Jamaine Ortiz).

So in trying to look at this fight as best as I can?-- Lopez, despite his stellar reputation, has not performed at a TOP level since his huge upset of Loma 4 1/2 years ago back in October of 2020, other than his great win over Josh Taylor which was in June of 2023, one month shy of TWO years ago-- and, as a reminder, we are now entering May 2025.

It is a fact that the ONLY other fighters Lopez has beaten WITHOUT LOOKING LIKE HE LOST THE FIGHT to all objective observers since his victory over Loma in October of 2020 and aside from his victory over Josh Taylor almost 2 years ago were only HUGE underdogs and greatly over-matched underdogs. In those fights, anything else but a Teofimo win over them would have been a huge upset and an indelible stain on his reputation and his future.

If Lopez can fight like the fighter that fought Loma and Taylor so perfectly and dominantly, then I'd think that he'd have a very good chance to win this fight. But?--- the fact is that the fighter named Teofimo Lopez who looked so great against Loma and Taylor has only appeared in the ring twice in Lopez's entire career. Lopez has looked GREAT when he is at the top of his game, but the top of his game has only occurred in the Loma and Taylor fights and Lopez has looked very ordinary and beatable in ALL his other fights. As for me?--- I find it hard to trust that we will see a GREAT Teofimo Lopez performance in this weekend's fight, especially as I think Barboza is not only one of his toughest opponents, but is also very tough stylistically for Lopez.

Lopez's very last fight was a " decision" win over the washed journeyman Steve Claggett and it was a decision win too. And that brings up another fact that also needs to be considered, which is that Lopez has never proven himself to be a dangerous puncher against ANY highly rated opposition (despite his reputation within his fanbase).

In contrast, Barboza's very last fight was a " decision win" in a hard fought, well thought out, beautifully fought chess game of a fight where he won a close decision over the -300 favorite, the terrific Jack Catterall. If we are judging them by each fighter's last fight only?--- the winner of this upcoming fight is a no-brainer.

In comparison to Lopez, Barboza is a much easier puzzle to try to figure out, as he is consistent, barring his one fight with McComb, a southpaw who gave him fits. But Barboza has clearly worked on that seeming issue, and beat the supremely talented southpaw Catterall, and Barboza has also been very active in the past year with 4 fights in the last 1 1/2 years and those fights were at a high level too.

And in comparison to Lopez, with the exception of Barboza's fight with McComb, all recent performances have been very good, and have also been improving, so there is no denying that Arnold Barboza Jr CAN fight and has the tools to be a problem for Lopez.

Barboza is not a big puncher, but he knows his way around the ring very well, as he proved against Catterall, which is no easy task. And Barboza is a tricky fighter who is always thinking during his fights, somewhat along the lines of a Sandor Martin who Teo struggled greatly with---so that is something to consider when looking at the scope of this fight too.

I must also say that I think the styles of Loma and Taylor were MUCH better suited for Lopez than Barboza's style (or also Sandor Martin's style). In addition, with both of Lopez's two biggest, defining wins being wide decisions against southpaws, and with the rest of his performances being ordinary and very average at best against orthodox fighters ?? --- there are some interesting, quite possible reasons to consider that Barboza might pull off the upset in this fight.

In addition to all the above, and a very huge player in my own pick for this fight is the totally overlooked fact that BARBOZA ALSO HAS THE LONGEST REACH of any of Lopez's previous opponents, and by a good amount too.

Barboza is the same height as Lopez, but his reach is a full THREE and a HALF inches longer than Lopez's, and his reach is also alot longer than ALL Lopez's other top opponents too. If we consider the added perk of the fact that Barboza's style of fighting lends itself to utilizing that reach to his advantage and keeping Lopez at Barboza's own preferred distance, we have a very interesting match here.

In another " reach" comparison?--- In Lopez's two signature victories, Loma only has a reach of 65 1/2" and Taylor only has a reach of 69 1/2" ( which is TWO and a HALF inches shorter than Barboza's reach of 72") so Lopez was able to get inside to attack more easily and fight at his preferred pace. But given Barbosa's style of fighting, if he uses his reach as well as he has used it in the past, I think his style and long reach is going to trouble Lopez quite a bit and frustrate him, and if I am right about that, I don't think Lopez is a fighter that will handle that frustration well.

I find it difficult to see Lopez being able to get inside enough to fight Barboza the way he would like to. I am also considering that Lopez does NOT have a huge punch even at those times when he IS able to get inside. And I can't see Lopez being able to get inside consistently enough to do much damage to a fighter with Barboza's style, especially if Barboza uses his reach advantage and fights as he has in the past so I personally think this match-up favors Barboza stylistically AND on paper too.

BOXING POLITICS (possible considerations)

In looking at the mindset of both fighters and the possible politics involved, one unexpected thing stands out. Lopez might have made a potentially big mistake by encouraging fans to " STREAM THIS FIGHT CARD" rather than buying it, because it seems he is at odds with either Turki or DAZN over money. And for Lopez to say that online surely does not IMPROVE his chances of winning a close decision assuming that the decision is political--- but it also can't be ignored that while it originally seemed likely (take out the second word "seemed" here as I wrote it twice) to behoove boxing if Lopez was to win the upcoming fight, that actually might not be the case anymore (see below).

My reason for mentioning this Lopez situation is that one would have to be a blind casual to NOT be able to figure out that the hope for the upcoming #Boxing card this weekend is that Garcia, Haney AND Lopez ALL WIN--- and in today's world of boxing that ALSO has to be considered before one puts down their money to bet this or ANY fight.

However, there might be a fly in that ointment now due to the unpredictable Lopez making that statement I referenced above, and encouraging fans to " stream the fight". In my opinion, that DOES bring into question if Lopez would be worth the inevitable trouble and complications he'd almost surely bring to Turki. DAZN and his people's plans for the future, assuming this fight has politics involved.

I am quite sure they'd prefer not to be tied to an unpredictable fighter like Lopez saying things that are totally against them, which encourages people to " stream the fight" and " complains about the money" and his verbalization of all that will surely cost Turki AND DAZN money. Lopez has also proven to be a bit of a headache to negotiate at other times in the past too, but this time Lopez is verbally biting the hand that is feeding him. This is something to be considered, if one is looking for a possible political angle as they far too often rears their ugly head in so many boxing matches these days.

In my honest assessment of all this, Lopez's behavior might make Turki, DAZN and company decide that a talented, still undefeated, more easy-going and agreeable fighter like Barboza, fresh off a upset win over Lopez and an upset win over Jack Catterall in his fight before that would suddenly be a VERY easy sell. His record and stellar resume with consecutive upset wins over Catterall and Lopez would skyrocket Barboza into the top fights immediately as a victory here would make Barboza a star who would be sought after for some very big money fights--- and he also still sports an " undefeated" record against top competition. So, when one seriously considers all these potential perks of a Barboza victory?-- Barboza might actually wind up being the one Turki, DAZN and company might "prefer" to win this fight now and NOT Lopez---- and I NEVER thought I'd EVER even think that.

In my opinion, all of this is at least worth considering for bettors in addition to the actual match itself. I must say that Boxing Politics is something I believe one should always ponder and ALWAYS weigh, if nothing else, before putting money on ANY fight.

THE PICK

• ARNOLD BARBOZA TO BEAT TEOFIMO LOPEZ

I know that Lopez has shown he can fight at the very top level, and I could be wrong, but I am personally just seeing too many obstacles against him in this fight. I also can not trust that the Lopez that we have seen against Taylor and Loma will show up, because if he doesn't, this could be a very bad night for Lopez. I just can not shake the reality that I have only seen Lopez rise to those heights and be great twice, and I am just not able to see him doing it again in this fight against the very talented Barboza, assuming it is an honest fight. And even if that same Teofimo Lopez DID show up, I am STILL not totally convinced that Barboza does not have the perfect style to beat him, but I feel that Barboza CAN beat all the other versions of Lopez OTHER THAN the Lopez who fought Loma and Taylor, but I believe that even if fighting the very best Lopez, it would still be an interesting 50-50 bout due to their respective styles.

I see this fight being a win for Barboza if it goes to the cards ( as it seems many expect it to)--- but I personally see many other scenarios where Barboza wins and this fight does not go the distance too. I can see Lopez claiming an injury if he is struggling in the fight and they will need to stop the fight early, or I can see Lopez quitting on his stool, or Barboza might even stop him. If Sandor Martin could put Lopez down early in the fight, and deserved to get a second knockdown called again later in the fight, then it is NOT impossible that even a light puncher on Martin's same light power level like Barboza might be able to win by stoppage, especially if Lopez's head is not in the right place.

For one thing Lopez does not seem to be thrilled or very interested in this upcoming bout at all, and I believe Lopez is capable of finding a way out of the fight if he is losing, or even if he is just not grounded or maybe he will just get disinterested in finishing the fight (like Sunny Edwards).

I should also add that I have STILL NOT forgotten Lopez asking his cornermen after his fight with Martin " Do I Still Got It??" and that shows a weak mindset and huge lack of confidence in a boxer to me and that doubt in himself is not a great sign and could easily manifest itself DURING a bout, as easily as it did that night right after the bout,

• My ONLY slight nervousness about picking Barboza to win has nothing AT ALL to do with the fight or the specific matchup, but rather it is something I said in one of my past videos with David for this website. In one of our boxing chats we discussed the fact that I have always been reluctant about betting any fighter to win THREE upsets in a row. There are no underdogs that I can think of that have won THREE straight fights as the underdog, to my knowledge. It is a very strong superstition of mine that I always follow in my boxing betting BUT??--- for this ONE fight, I am breaking with my tradition as I DO feel strongly enough about the potential result that I AM picking Barboza to win his THIRD UPSET in a row and beating Teofimo Lopez. I have thought about this fight, and turned it inside out and upside down and I am having trouble envisioning Lopez winning this fight for too many reasons. And in my personal opinion the reasons to pick Barboza to win this fight are many and they surely outweigh my 3 upsets in a row rule.

So, for the many reasons I mentioned above??---- Arnold Barboza is my pick to win this fight.

My suggested bet will be printed below. The rest will be up to all those reading this, depending upon their personal thoughts, their own styles of betting and if they are in agreement with me or not. But my suggestion will be to play this beautiful paying +200 longshot bet on Barboza as straight as an arrow, because the prop bets on Barboza against the unpredictable Lopez are not solid enough and are also not paying enough to justify spending even part of your investment on them.

MY BET SUGGESTION

• ARNOLD BARBOZA TO WIN (+200)

"Barboza to win" at +200 is a terrific payout, especially for a fight that I think hovers around 50-50 on paper. So considering Lopez's unpredictability, lack of consistent confidence, seeming disinterest in this fight, the fact that a light punching Sandor Martin was able to knock him down and rattle him throughout their fight and assuming you like Barboza to win, my bet suggestion is "Arnold Barboza To Win " (At +200) as written above.

So #WrightOrWrong those are my final picks, Barboza is my pick to win and my suggested bet is " Barboza To Win" at +200 and the final decision is up to ALL of YOU.

THAT'S A WRAP

Anyways, guys--- those are my thoughts on this interesting, exciting and hard to figure fight---- and I wish you all the luck in the world in whatever you decide to bet for this fight, so let's all get ready for the WEEKEND fights, and I hope you all make a HUGE score.

And as for me, I feel the way Larry Merchant does in regards to his famous quote that " Boxing Is The Theatre Of The Unexpected", and with that being said, these are my personal feelings on this exciting fight in the Theatre Of The Unexpected that is BOXING---- and we'll soon find out if they are Wright Or Wrong.

Good Luck !!!!

#WrightOrWrong

All The Best, Johnny Wright USA

SUMMARY

• Teofimo Lopez is the 68% favourite at decimal odds of 1.40 versus Arnold Barboza Jr, the 32% underdog with odds of 3.00 for their fight in New York's Times Square.
• We are backing the underdog in the MoneyLine (draw-no-bet) at 2/1 for the upset in this one. Decimal Odds of 3.00 are available with Bet365 and other books.
• Barboza Jr can currently be backed at 11/5 (3.20 decimal odds) in the Fight Winner market with Ladbrokes (for those who don't want the draw insurance with the MoneyLine).

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Johnny is the walking embodiment of a boxing purist. One of the finest boxing analysts you could ever wish to meet, his ability to pick the fights is, quite literally, second-to-none.

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