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The Card

Jake Paul is the 82% heavy-favourite at decimal odds of 1.15 (= 2/13; -650) versus Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, the 18% underdog with odds of 5.25 (≈ 9/2; +450) for their fight in Anaheim on 28 June 2025.  Paul  has drifted out from 1.13 to 1.15, Cesar Chavez Jr has been backed in from 5.75 to 5.25. 

Floyd Schofield is the 63% favourite at decimal odds of 1.52 (≈ 8/15; -188) versus Tevin Farmer, the 37% underdog with odds of 2.55 (≈ 6/4; +150) for their fight on the same card. Across the 3 fights shown, favourites have an average win probability of 78%. Backing all the favourites in an accumulator would return combined odds of 1.87 (≈ 10/11; -110).  

 

The Conundrum

Let me start this article with the words from the old song from the musical "Cabaret" which says ??---" Money Makes The World Go 'Round"--- and now that I have finished that, let me tell you all my thoughts on Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr...

To start things off, I would encourage ANYBODY who is betting on this fight to approach it with great caution and I will give you my reasons. And afterwards, those of you reading this can decide for yourself if you agree with me, if you only agree with some of what I said, or if you disagree with me entirely as I am simply telling you why I will NOT " personally" be betting on this fight. BUT??--- I AM still going to give my thoughts on it and reach a conclusion that will be an educated guess based upon the thoughts I will share with you in this article.

To word this plain and simply, we live in a world of #Boxing politics, and that is an undeniable fact. In fact, the truth is that #Boxing has been getting bolder and bolder in its execution of the politics necessary for them to make the most money, as true #Boxing fans sit by helplessly watching.

We watch early stoppages in favor of the " A" side, watch unnecessary points being taken away from the "B" side if he is winning or being far too competitive for #Boxing's comfort, we see the "A" side consistently given unfair advantages, and we hear scorecards from judges whose results are so bad and unfair that it is hard to believe they are not taking part in a Saturday Night Live routine, and the list goes on, and that list always goes on in favor of the "A" side.

Now, let's throw the Jake Paul vs Chavez Jr. fight into the mix in ADDITION to all the above points I just mentioned before we even look at reasons to bet or not to bet the fight.

Jake Paul is a HUGE money-maker for #Boxing, and YES--- I do NOT understand it either, but he is. Don't ask me how that happened, but it did. As a result of this, #Boxing DEFINITELY wants to keep Jake's boxing career very much alive as they have very few true money making machines like Jake Paul left in it. And Jake also has his own promotional company, MVP promotions, who will "coincidentally" be co-promoting his fight with Chavez Jr. along with Golden Boy promotions. Hmmmm ?

Jake Paul is being handled, spoken about, and starting to be sold to fans by #Boxing insiders as if he is the real deal, and an honest to goodness, truly talented, up and coming boxer with untapped potential, and none of that can be further from the truth. In addition, #Boxing benefits GREATLY if Jake Paul wins this fight with Chavez Jr. and moves on to his next fight as he is currently being positioned for a title shot and yes---you read that right. Jake Paul, the You-Tuber--- is being positioned for a TITLE shot, as there is talk of him fighting Gilberto Ramirez for one of the Cruiserweight belts.

And to emphasize that unjustifiable reality with one of the most recent chess moves from #Boxing Politics for those who have not yet heard?-- " IF" Jake Paul wins this fight, he has been promised a TOP TEN RATING in a couple of the belt organizations, and I wish I was kidding, but I am serious.

And, although that is 100% political and unfair, it will not change the fact that it is #Boxing's future plan for Jake Paul as it has been reported. And if that plan holds true, then it is worth considering the HIGH stakes in this fight for #Boxing, and how HUGELY it benefits #Boxing monetarily if Paul wins. And to make that even more extreme, consider the fact that they will be selling Jake Paul as a legitimate contender for title fights to boxing fans based off his fight with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., who is 39 years old, has lost to Anderson Silva, has had drug and alcohol issues, and IS MANY YEARS past his expiration date.

The truth is that if Jake Paul wins this fight, his record will reflect that he would be coming off victories over a geriatric Mike Tyson and the mortal remains of Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

And keep in mind that one could argue that even when he was in his prime, Chavez Jr. was STILL not much more than the mortal remains of Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

Those facts all combine to make this fight one that I find hard to believe will not be staged like wrestling is, as I personally believe almost ALL Paul's fights were staged to some degree, as money talks and as long as Paul keeps winning, that money is going to keep talking, and as I see it, Paul will keep winning sideshow fights like this one.

I am of the opinion that in his last fight, it became painfully evident how arranged & planned almost all his fights have been, as in the highest profile fight of Paul's career, I watched him and Mike Tyson slow-dance and tenderly waltz across the floor of the ring together and in truth, that fight would have been better served as an episode of the old show "Dancing With The Stars".

After Paul's cherry-pick gone bad in his fight with the truly awful Tommy Fury, who is the worst boxer out of the 217 professional boxers in the Fury family, Jake Paul's actual boxing limitations were exposed and his lack of true ability was painfully obvious, even against a very low end opponent like Fury #217.

In this writer's view, Jake Paul has "no" gifts or talent as a professional boxer, but he DOES have #Boxing politics 100% behind him all the way. They are ALL pushing him HARD and maneuvering Jake to get into an increasingly stronger position to sell himself too . And Jake is right there, side by side with #Boxing politics now, due to his salesmanship, the money he personally generates and his promotional company, MVP.

But as far as talent as a boxer in the ring??- In my eyes, Jake Paul has absolutely no boxing skill other than executing the very basics, which anybody his age could learn and look decent doing as long as they are sure to fight people that are FAR worse than them, or as long as their opponents accept money/perks to " underperform" and not win, just as seems to happen in all Jake's fights, in this writer's opinion.

Jake Paul is all smoke and mirrors and the fact that him and #Boxing have unjustifiably combined to sell him to the fans as a "potential future champion" is insulting to those of us who truly know "BOXING" --but #Boxing is a BUSINESS and the fact that Jake Paul could sell used cars to a blind man is where Jake's true talent lies for those of us who truly know " BUSINESS".

And let's remember that Jake Paul is in the " Boxing Business", so if one adds all those facts up mathematically, it is impossible to take any of his fights seriously at this point in time, and I never have and never will bet any of his fights, due to my lack of trust in used-car salesmen type people.

I do believe that as a person, Jake actually has done a lot of good for boxing, particularly for women's boxing. He is also making the sport of boxing a lot of money, bringing the eyes of new fans to the sport.

I DO believe that as a person Jake actually has done alot of good for boxing, particularly for women's boxing, and he is also making the sport of boxing ALOT of money, bringing the eyes of new fans to boxing, and making himself VERY rich in the process. In assessing all those positives, nobody can not respect Paul for accomplishing all that he has done from a business standpoint.

That holds true, ESPECIALLY given the fact he does not belong in the boxing ring with any "true" fighters, but Paul has a great business mind with peripheral vision, and to his credit, that is a gift that he has exploited with finesse and for great wealth.

The bottom line is that I think quite highly of Paul as a You-Tuber, salesman and a businessman , but I do not rate him as a boxer at all, and think he is severely lacking in the boxing skills necessary to ever be a 100% legitimate fighter, rather than "sideshow type entertainment".

The reason I will not bet this fight is because, in my eyes, his win over Anderson Silva, his two wins over the two totally unknown fighters Andre August and Ryan Bourland via 1st round knockouts, his win over Michael Perry ( a fighter in only his 2nd professional fight) and his " win" over the elderly shell of Mike Tyson are fights that I believe were all staged and scripted like wrestling. That is my personal belief and I simply can not believe that this fight with Chavez Jr. will not be staged in the exact same manner with the result already predetermined. It is for those reasons that I am not putting one cent of MY money on what I believe will be another #Boxing bear trap that #Boxing has set up for boxing bettors to step into.

Jake Paul generates alot of money---and let me repeat that he generates ALL that money for himself, his MVP promotions company and for the entire sport of #Boxing too, and it is as a result of his "business mind" and NOT his "boxing skills" that have led us to where we are now, as we get ready for his next fight against yet another person with name value but NO value as a true opponent that will prove anything about Paul as a boxer. Yet?--- if Paul wins, two of the organizations plan to rank him in their top 10 ratings per #Boxing insiders on Twitter, so that is the dilemma that I believe bettors are forced to deal with in betting this fight.

If you look at all of this as I do?--- it seems to me that ever since his Tommy Fury loss, not only has Paul stayed FAR AWAY from Fury and NOT given Fury a rematch, but he has also picked opponents that would clearly have NO REASON at all NOT to take a LARGE financial reward from him/his company to follow a "wrestling" type script narrative to make Paul look good.

The word has always been that Mike Tyson needed money, as he is trying to launch several business ventures, so how would it possibly have hurt Tyson to take a HUGE payoff to agree not to hurt Paul if he had somehow gotten the chance to, and for Paul to agree not to hurt Tyson. And how would it have hurt Tyson to have the Paul fight go to the cards and be a decision and for them to both come out of it fine, healthy, on their feet and looking no worse for the wear and tear. That predetermined result would not tarnish Tyson's legacy, nor would it leave open the outside possibility that Tyson might land a lucky punch on Paul early, which would have totally brought the Jake Paul Money Train to a screeching halt. It was the perfectly scripted ending, just like one of the Rocky movies.

The Tyson vs Paul fight's realities were predicted WAY before the fight and written about in precise and absolutely brilliant fashion by David Hipkin ( this website's co-owner). And this article is a must-read for boxing fans that is entitled " Tyson vs. Paul--- Why So Serious? " and for them to REALLY think about after they have read it.

To continue, I don't think anybody who knows boxing can not recognize that the Paul-Tyson fiasco was a farce on MANY levels, and not even a good or convincing farce either, yet it made the both of them tens of millions of dollars anyway, and now another Jake Paul fiasco is upon us--- and the beat goes on.

Now?---in this writer's personal opinion, at 39 and at this point of his career, Chavez Jr. seems EXTREMELY likely to be willing to accept a LARGE monetary settlement from Paul and MVP (Paul's promotional company) to be 100% SURE to " underperform". My reasons for feeling that way is that true boxing fans know that Chavez Jr. is completely washed, has sadly lived a very hard life, and that he could likely could use every cent of the enormous extra financial benefits that he and Paul will agree to (in my personal estimation).

In looking at all this from that perspective and then looking at the odds on this supposed " fight"?- I will break down what I think might be the most logical outcome in the fight based on my above reasoning and again, this is only an educated "guess" on my part, based on all that I have mentioned in this article, because as I have said, I am not betting this fight.

My assessment is that I believe that Paul and Chavez will want to make this fight look as real as possible, ESPECIALLY after Paul''s slow-dance with Tyson, so I expect this fight to look MUCH more legitimate because I am NOT the only one who has speculated that Paul's fights have all been staged . In fact, many agree that they are not just staged but they actually clearly LOOK staged to true boxing fans. In addition, I also think the result of this fight would benefit BOTH him and Chavez Jr. if it made it to the cards ( meaning it goes the distance and the result is a decision).

The facts are that if Paul gets beaten?-- he AND #Boxing will BOTH lose tens of millions of dollars. Paul would also not be able to get the all-important "Top 10" ranking by a couple of the organizations, and his money train would take a VERY severe hit. And if Paul was to get knocked out, it would likely bring his Money Train to a dead stop. And as I see it, that is simply not going to be allowed to happen, even if it might have actually happened as Chavez Jr. CAN punch, if not much else.

In addition??--- while Paul would surely benefit from knocking out Chavez Jr, that result would have the downside of killing off any chance for Chavez Jr to get himself another fight after this. And I DO believe Chavez Jr would fight again and be able to make some very good money too as I feel positive that if Chavez Jr. looks remotely good against Paul, that #Boxing WILL sell Chavez Jr. to fans for another high paying fight and have its spin doctors sell the fight by convincing fans that Chavez Jr. is focused now, more serious now and proved something great by merely looking good against Jake Paul. And if that sound unfeasible to you, please remember that "NOBODY HAS EVER LOST MONEY UNDERESTIMATING THE INTELLIGENCE OF MOST BOXING FANS"

The TRUTH is that losing a close fight to You-Tuber Jake Paul is not a great way for ANY boxer to legitimately try to market themselves, even if for only one more big paying fight. But due to Chavez's magic last name, I believe that #Boxing would be more than happy to sell fans Chavez Jr. one more time as they have done with so many other once big money, totally washed fighters.

Adding all that up?---- it seems to me that IF I turn out to be right about this fight being staged for financial gain, then the best possible result where nobody gets hurt and everybody wins is if Jake Paul beats Chavez Jr in a very close decision.

That close decision result would ALSO make Paul look like he was in a REAL fight and REALLY won, if it was close and he will get his top 10 rating. But Paul needs his newest stage play to be 100% convincing after the Tyson fiasco and amidst all the rumors swirling after the Tyson fiasco about all Paul's fights being fixed.

In addition, that close result in Paul's favor would also be sold to boxing fans under the narrative that " Chavez looks like he is serious this time around, and was simply rusty for the Paul fight, but will improve in his next outing" and #Boxing is not above trying to get themselves TWO money fighters out of this one fight if they can. Trust me, the spin doctors EARN their money, and that is what I believe will be the narrative if this is as scripted a fight as I believe it will be.

So for the sake of fun?--- IFFF I am right about what I said in this article when thinking about this contest, I would "GUESS" that Paul and the #Boxing politicians would put their minds together, and that the best political #Boxing result would be:

The best political result: Jake Paul Wins By a Close Decision ( possibly even SD or MD).

I believe that result is the best solution IF I am right about this fight being an extension of " Wrestling" as all Paul's fights seem to me. I also expect this particular fight to look VERY real, possibly even with a staged knockdown at some point. The reason I expect that to possibly happen is because Paul needs this fight to look VERY real, as he can not afford for it not to. Paul got called out mercilessly for the obvious amusement park ride he took with his grandfather Mike Tyson in his last fight. That was SOOO clearly NOT a real fight, and as soon as the fight ended, the accusations started flying yet again about Paul being involved in only staged, planned and scripted fights, so Paul NEEDS this particular fight, more than ANY of his fights, to look completely legitimate for his reputation.

And for those boxing fans that feel sure that they can tell when a fight is real or not?--- The truth is that in most cases, it is NOT even suspected by even the most astute boxing observers. Please keep in mind that if it is done well, it would not be able to be noticed by anyone watching the fights. But the problem has been that Paul has not done a very good job of hiding it in the past. And, I should add that those words about being able to tell whether fights are real or not are not my own thoughts, but they come from quotes over the years from the very top boxing people, including Teddy Atlas, Bert Sugar, Dick Young, Larry Merchant and other equally major #Boxing insiders.

For those who believe this fight will be a real fight, please know that your opinions are 100% respected, and I wish you ALL great results if you bet this fight--- and, as always---- GOOD LUCK GUYS !!

All the best, Johnny Wright USA

  

 

   

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 Johnny is the walking embodiment of a boxing purist. One of the finest boxing analysts you could ever wish to meet, his ability to pick the fights is, quite literally, second-to-none.

 

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