Boxing is back with a bang. Here, @jwrightboxing has your ultimate breakdown ahead of the light-heavyweight  battle of the unbeaten Davids in what is that rare meeting of two exceptional fighters meeting in their primes.   

Elsewhere on SharpBetting boxing - Brandon Figueroa vs Stephen Fulton: check out the Quick Pick in that one, click here. 

Editor's note

We are delighted to announce another unique price-boost offering. This is with the boxing team from Tote-Sports. 

These odds are now a standout offering in the global boxing betting market

Click here to get the SharpBetting Special decimal odds of 4.33 (10/3 fractional odds, +333 US odds) for David Benavidez to win by TO/TKO/DQ.   These odds are now a standout offering in the global boxing betting market at 4.33 compared to the  3.50 (5/2 generally elsewhere).

Why do we like it? Keep reading...

Fight-day MoneyLine movements

Saturday has seen plenty of support for Benavidez in the market.  Tote-Sports continue to offer the standout best-price for The SharpBetting Special.  Latest MoneyLine movements:

• Benavidez in from 1.55 to 1.35 (-286 US odds);
• Morrell out from 2.45 to 3.15 (+215 US odds)

JOHNNY'S BACK AGAIN!

Hello again, everyone, and now that we are firmly planted into the new year here, we are entering into one of the most stacked and exciting months of February that I can recall, and what a terrific way to get 2025 started. For this particular break down, I decided that with all these great fights coming up, I'd try shining up the Crystal Ball, and hope that it helps get 2025 off to a positive start in this fantastic match.

I am going to start with one of the biggest, most evenly matched fights to start off 2025.  It is my hope to be able to bring some clarity to this fight for myself, as well as those who agree with the Crystal Ball's final pick for this fight. I hope my own thoughts might offer some things to ponder for some people who might be riding the fence on this one---so let's take a look at these two fighters as I am going to try to separate these two in enough of a way that I can more confidently determine a winner of this great match between David Morrell and David Benavidez.

CLEARING OUR MINDS 

Okay so now let's take a very good look at the career of David Morrell as seen through the Crystal Ball's reflection, and see what we might be able to ascertain through reading a bit between the lines. And as I always say?--- in order to do that we must COMPLETELY ignore the Boxing Media, the ex-fighters, the trainers and anybody else who has a vested interest in boxing when they give us their thoughts, because their thoughts usually have a hidden agenda of some kind so I do not ever trust a word that any of them say, or anything they print when assessing the fights.

I have found this to be true of those directly involved in the sport even at those extremely rare times that they are giving a truly unbiased opinion, because even the oldest of the ex-boxers and trainers still have their own egos involved in their summations and predictions of the fights, if nothing else.

We must also be sure not to be swayed by those keyboard warriors who tell you that they haven't picked a fight wrong since 2005 and have made $250,000 a year betting fights, so we must tune ALL that out and use our OWN instincts and feelings, and we should only consider weighing the thoughts of people we respect and know do not have a hidden agenda in their thoughts and opinions.

I am here to give you MY thoughts and feelings and to give you my fight breakdown and let you know how the Crystal Ball sees it. So, I am going to talk about everything that the Crystal Ball is reflecting to me, and the rest is up to you guys. And as always, I wish you all the very best, whether you agree or disagree. And I wish you all good luck if you are betting on this fight too.

Now let's get down to the fun stuff and see what the Crystal Ball comes up with as we weigh the obvious and not so obvious pros and cons of both fighters

Now let's get down to the fun stuff and see what the Crystal Ball comes up with as we weigh the obvious and not so obvious pros and cons of both fighters, and their individual styles, along with some lesser talked about variables, and see how this fight might play out.

DAVID MORRELL JR. - THE PROS

• Stellar amature career
• Southpaw, great mover, shows confidence
• Good puncher, maintains power late in rounds

Let's first start with David Morrell and how I personally view his attributes going into this fight. His positives are not hard to see as he is an extremely talented 27 year old fighter. He is a southpaw, has a very good punch and his defense is quite good, though he can get a little sloppy, especially as the rounds go by, as evidenced thus far by his only three 12 round fights in the pros, despite the fact he won the first two handily.

His punch is very good and it has proven to be effective in the professional ranks and he moves very well in the ring too. He has also proven that his excellent power CAN carry throughout the whole 12 rounds too, as evidenced by his 12th round KO of Aidos Yerbossynuly a little over 2 years ago. Morrell looked very good in that fight as he basically shut out Yerbossynuly for the whole fight before KOing him in the 12th and final round. He has shown good movement and a high level of confidence inside the ring, and Morrell has surely proven he can effectively fight for 12 rounds AND that he can also maintain his power for 12 rounds.

Morrell has alot of potential, as evidenced by his stellar amateur career, which was quite decorated along the way. He finished his amateur career with a record of 130 wins and only 2 losses OR 135 wins and only 2 losses according to which source you believe---- but either way?---it is very evident that he was a very highly rated and effective amateur fighter with a very impressive record.

He turned pro in August of 2019 , and has not turned back since. He has been a professional for a little over 5 years now, and has a professional record of 11-0-0 with 9 of his 11 wins coming by way of KO/TKO, which is truly impressive from a still up and coming 27 year old fighter with a decorated and solid amateur pedigree.

He was one of those VERY rare amateurs who was able to make the transition to fighting 12 rounds in only his 3rd professional fight, albeit over a low level fighter in Lennox Allen. He won an impressive shutout decision in that fight, which was only his 3rd professional fight and has continued his unbeaten ways ever since then.

Morrell is truly a fighter with great potential that he has already begun heavily tapping into

Morrell is truly a fighter with great potential that he has already begun heavily tapping into---and at the moment, he has established himself as a highly regarded professional fighter and as a result of this he will be fighting against David Benavidez. We will be talking about Benavidez next, in this very intriguing matchup of two fighters who BOTH moved up to Light -Heavyweight for the very first time in each one's last fight too.

BACKGROUND

To give you a little back history on that, David Benavidez and David Morrell were both fighting at Super-middleweight, and were both deserving of a title shot at Canelo Alvarez, who clearly did not want any part of either of them. Canelo could not have ducked Morrell and Benevidez any more obviously, as they were his obvious #1 contenders.

There have been spins put on that reality by the media and from his fanboys, but anybody who is objective can see the truth, which is that Canelo did not want to fight either one of them, despite the public clamoring for those fights. Since then, Canelo has instead picked an array of obviously overmatched Grade C fighters with just enough name value to make him money, but they were also fighters that everybody knew would not give him any trouble. I put the blame on the organizations for allowing him to do that, as it robbed other fighters like Morrell and Benevidez at THEIR chance to win the Super-Middleweight championship.

Canelo has made enough money for boxing that they essentially have let him write his own ticket and make his own rules,  even despite being schooled and thoroughly beaten up by Dimitry Bivol. And for those who are claiming Canelo was fighting at the wrong weight and that it was too high a weight and that "he dared to be great",  please DO remember that he had fought at that weight before with no issues.

He had no trouble going 11 rounds and eventually knocking out Kovalev. In fact, the fight went so well for him, that after the fight he said he was so comfortable at that weight that he said he was planning to move up ever further and challenge Usyk. That should be proof enough that it was NOT the weight that caused Canelo to lose to Bivol. It is simply the fact that Bivol was a cherry-pick gone wrong, as Bivol is incredibly skilled, and he also has a high Boxing IQ and the perfect style to beat Canelo, as he proved conclusively.

That being said, Canelo's reluctance to fight either Morrell or Benavidez, was not lost on the fighter's as they realized he was making his money the easier way, based off his own name value, so to the credit of both of them, they did not wait around for him. And to their credit, both Morrell and Benavidez decided to move up to Light-Heavyweight to eventually challenge the winner of the Beterbiev vs. Bivol rematch for the Light-Heavyweight title instead, as the word is that the winner of this fight will fight for the Light-Heavyweight title against the winner of the Bivol vs Beterbiev rematch.

And, again, to both the credit of both Morrell AND Benavidez they decided to forget about Canelo, and move up to Light-Heavyweight and make their mark in that new weight class, and they both had their first fight at Light Heavyweight in their very last fight, which makes a very hard comparison only slightly easier to look at.

It is also rare, these days, to find two truly gifted, young, undefeated warriors willing to move up in weight and fight the best, but that is exactly what Morrell and Benavidez are doing. And destiny awaits them, because they now will have the chance to face each other, with each one fighting only their second fight in the weight class.

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In David Morrell we have a highly decorated amateur boxer, with good movement, very good power, solid defense, and who is very good at cutting off the ring on his opponents. His power can carry all through the fight, and he is a southpaw, which is almost always a bit of a positive as they can often be a little more difficult for their opponents as most orthodox fighters are used to training for orthodox fighters and not for southpaws (as they only make up about 10% of the professional boxers).

In addition, Morrell, while being listed as an inch shorter than Benevidez, surprisingly has a 4 inch longer reach than Benavidez which could be a very effective weapon for him, which is another big positive.

Morrell is also a very good finisher once he has an opponent hurt, but that can come with him leaving himself open

Morrell is also a very good finisher once he has an opponent hurt, but that can come with him leaving himself open quite a bit, but when he has someone hurt, he can get the job done very effectively. And with his 4 inch reach advantage over Benavidez, he could use that to his advantage to land his punches and also to keep Benavidez at the end of his jab and prevent Benavidez from getting into his own comfort zone and into too much of a rhythm. That is easier said than done against a counter-puncher like Benavidez, however, that needs to be considered a nice positive for Morrell as he has had no issues finishing any opponents once he has had them hurt yet.

DAVID MORRELL JR. - THE CONS

• Favourable match-making so far in career 
• First real test; hype or the real deal?
• Sometimes too open when in offense
• No Plan-B?

Well, for starters, let's take a closer look at some of Morrell's pros that I listed. Yes, he has a stellar, extensive amateur career and at 27, with 135 Amateur fights, he does not appear to have left most of his talent or potential in the amateurs, as he has already proven he has brought his talents into the professional ranks and can handle the professional 12 round distance BUT??

Let's take a very unbiased and close look at his record, and his opponents and not just believe what we have been sold by the media and those with a vested interest in Morrell as he is unquestionably the Media Darling in this fight. So let's look at the realities of both these fighters, starting with Morrell, and see if there are any potential red flags we might be able to use that can hopefully help us decide on a winner in this fight.

One red flag I see is that Benavidez is YOUNG, and Morrell has NEVER fought a young, prime professional opponent before-- EVER.

To get a better perspective on Morrell's competition?---- let's take a look at the ages of Morrell's last 6 opponents and consider that 5 of them were quite low level fighters to begin with, until his last fight where he slightly upped his level a bit.. The ages of Morrell's last six opponents starting from his last fight are 33, 33, 37, 31, 34 and 32 years old respectively, and all showed signs of additionally being past their expiration dates.

These were ALL much older and some outright old fighters Morrell has faced, who were low level to begin with, and also were all a bit past their primes or arguably never even had primes. In addition to these figher's ages, which for me are a bit of a wake-up call??---- In Morrell's 3rd professional fight, he went the distance with an opponent who was 35 ( not to mention being yet another low level fighter) and his opponent before that one was 33 years old in his second professional fight.

Now it is understandable that a fighter would want to start off like that and slowly build to younger and better fighters, but Morrell and his team have not really done that yet as evidenced by the ages of his last 6 opponents as he has not yet significantly upped his game. He has been fighting the exact same level fighters in the exact same age ranges as when he first started in the pros 5 1/2 years ago. 

He has continued to stay at the same level and have matches with fighters who were much older and past whenever their primes might have been

He has continued to stay at the same level and have matches with fighters who were much older and past whenever their primes might have been (until his last fight, which we will talk about in a little while)--- BUT that comfort level Morrell has had in all his previous fights will END on Feb 1st when he faces his first truly top, prime fighter in David Benavidez.

However?--- because of those facts I mentioned previously, there is nothing that Morrell has yet done as a professional fighter that leads me to believe he is the force that the media, many fans, and even the odds suggest he is.

Morrell is 27 but Benavidez is essentially the same age at only 28 and Morrell is NOT used to that and that is a negative for Morrell, as this will be his very first REAL test. And Benavidez's record in the Amateurs was a perfect one that is listed at 15-0, according to my research--- so, to me, Morrell's stellar amateur background means very little now, as Benavidez was 15-0 in the amateurs with the only difference being that Benavidez simply chose to move up to the professional ranks and fine-tune and sharpen his skills as a professional fighter MUCH sooner than Morrell.

Please, keep in mind that it does NOT take endless amateur fights, or a highly decorated amatuer pedigree to learn the fundamentals of boxing and to refine one's skills, and Benavidez felt he learned the fundamentals and skills he needed in his 15 amateur fights and then he took his undefeated, albeit much less extensive amateur career and decided to go into the pros to continue to refine his skills in the professional ranks in August of 2013.

For those of us keeping score, that means that David Benevidez, who is in his prime and only one year older that Morrell has been fighting at the professional level for 11 1/2 years--- as compared to Morrell who has been fighting at the professional level for only 5 1/2 years. The amateur fights are learning experiences and are mostly fought against an endless array of fledgling fighters, most of whom will never even become professionals, let alone low level professionals.

His amateur pedigree is something that I am not weighing much when handicapping this fight, other than it shows that Morrell has more fighting experience than his 11 fights suggest.

I do not consider Morrell's amateur background playing any part in this fight at all, other than showing us all that he IS ready to fight at the professional level, as he has been doing that quite successfully these last 5 1/2 years. But what he has done in the amateurs before turning pro is something that will not matter when he climbs into the ring with Benavidez. So his amateur pedigree is something that I am not weighing much when handicapping this fight, other than it shows that Morrell has more fighting experience than his 11 fights suggest. But as I said earlier, it is NOT "professional" fighting experience and I do consider that a big difference when handicapping fights.

In my personal opinion, I consider Benavidez's amateur background and professional experience with his record of 29-0 superior to what Morrrell has accomplished thus far as a fighter, in sum total. In my eyes, top professional experience from an unbeaten top fighter like Benavidez exceeds a decorated amateur background of 3 round fights against fledgling fighters, most of whom will never even make it to the pros--- but there are exceptions to every rule, so that does depend on who the individual fighter is too, so I am referring to that statement as a general rule of thumb that I follow. 

An additional con for Morrell is that in his 11 professional fights, he has scored 6 of his KOs/TKO in 2 rounds, and another 2 of them in the 4th round, which accounts for 8 of his 9 KOs/TKOs--- and the big negative there is that those 8 fights were still basically amateur distance fights which does not prove anything to me in regards to the pros, and those fights could just as easily be regarded as an extension of his amateur career given the level of oppts he fought in them.

Morrell has had 3 fights that went the distance and they were all against low level opposition with nice looking records, but those opponents were carefully chosen and their wins were over very low level competition too.

Now??---- let's take a look at the ages and the records of the ONLY three fighters that Morrell has gone the distance with, as they also happen to be the only 3 fighters that he has gone past 4 rounds with too.

Lennox Allen was 35 years old, Aidos Terbossynuly was 31 and in Morrell's last fight his opponent, Radivole Kalajdzic was over 33 years old.

All 3 of these much older, unheralded fighters were able to make Morrell go the distance and none of them were highly regarded fighters, to say the least. Those fights and even a few others also show that Morrell is far from impossible to hit, despite his decent defense, as he tends to leave himself open far too much when he goes on the offensive attack, which could be the kiss of death against Benavidez.

In addition, we are going to take a look at the HARSH facts about Morrell's last fight against the over 33 year old Radivole Kalajdzic and what REALLY happened in a little bit. But, first I wanted to mention Morrell's ONE KO/TKO that HE DID get in round 12 of a shutout performance, because in my opinion, it was his finest-looking professional fight. It was against the fighter I mentioned earlier, Aidos Yerbossynuly---who was a 31-year-old complete unknown who boasted a pretty-looking 16-0 record, but that record, like the records of Morrell's other opponents was an illusion.

The problem with crediting Morrell too much with his Yerbossynuly KO/TKO in round 12 and his dominance throughout that very fine performance, is that Yerbossynuly, who was oversold as he had not fought a single top level opponent in his career, was never competitive in the fight at all, starting from round one. That means that Morrell did not have to work very hard as he had his way with Yetbossnuly from the very beginning of the fight.

Yerbossnuly had never fought a top level fighter, had a padded record that looked pretty at 16-0, but one must keep in mind that he had NEVER even fought in the USA in HIS ENTIRE LIFE, which is one of the classic ways that fighters from other countries pad their records.

There was one exception with Yerbossnuly, as he did have ONE LONE fight in the USA against a low-level fighter who was just starting out at the very beginning of his very unimpressive career, but ALL Yerbossnuly's other fights have NOT been in our country, and that makes his pretty 16-0 an illusion if we are to be totally honest with ourselves and really look at his competition also.

And, as I said, that is one of the most well-known ways that boxers pad their records----so they can come and fight in the USA with impressive-sounding records from fighting against non-fighters that do NOT fight in the USA for a reason. In fact outside of 3-4 locations, I had never even HEARD of the places Yerbossnuly had fought in his 16-0 campaign against a line-up of nobodies that he easily beat.

But his record was notable on face-value at 16-0 and, of course, he presented no problems at all for Morrell who won every minute of every round. In regards to Morrell stopping him in the 12th round, how high can one rank that stoppage after the battering Yerbossnuly took in what I consider Morrell's best victory---especially when comparing it to his upcoming fight with Benavidez??

In order to pick a winner here, one of the things we need to do is to look deeply into the numbers to see how real they are. A perfect example is that the FAR below-average Heavyweight Brian Nielson retired with a record of 64-3---which is VERY impressive on paper and is a better lifetime record than Muhammad Ali, George Foreman and Larry Holmes, so we must keep in mind that a fighter's record can be VERY deceiving, as I don't think anybody has ever argued that Brain Neilson was ever even a fighter to take seriously, to be honest.

I should also add that Morrell was also 24 at the time he fought Yerbossynuly, who was 31 at the time and basically fighting in our country against a real opponent for the first time. Now, 31 is not necessarily that old, but as compared to a 24 year old Morrell who had fought 140 amateur fights, and had been professionally fighting a couple of years in the United States, it was certainly not a young 31, in comparison.

And to show how competitive this fight TRULY was?--- Morrell was a -1000 favorite, as many clearly knew that Yerbossynuly and his padded record was an illusion. That being said, the fight was good for Morrell in the sense that it gave Morrell some rounds and proved that Morrells power could carry into the 12th round of a fight.

But, in my opinion, that fact is not as impressive as it might seem, given that Morrell, the overwhelming favorite, had easily shut out Yerbossynuly, a second-rate fighter, without needing to even break much of a sweat. It is for that reason that I am not able to give too much thought to that 12th round KO/TKO when handicapping this fight in which he is going to be fighting a top fighter like Benavidez.

Another con in my eyes, is the simple reality is that in ALL Morrell's other fights, aside from the three 12 rounders that were against fighters who were 35, 31 and 33, all were 4 rds or less and he won them all by KO/TKO, which is just not impressive to me as he was still fighting at essentially that same comfortable amateur distance and against all bottom level fighters, as I rate them, until his VERY last fight, against the 33 year old Radivoje Kalajdzic, which was his first at Light Heavyweight.

Kalajdzic was a solid enough 33 year old fighter who had been KOed about 5 years earlier by Artur Beterbiev in the 5th round after being shutout the entire fight and had also lost earlier in his career in an 8-round fight to Marcus Browne. But he was a solid fighter who had put together a respectable run of recent victories since his KO loss to Beterbiev, albeit over mediocre and below mediocre competition---but at least the 33 year old Kalajdzic had a beating heart as this fight was made with the sole intention of getting Morrell some rounds against an experienced opponent and nothing more.

And for viewers, it would be Morrell's very best opponent and a good way to approximate how good Morrell is as a professional Light-Heavyweight.

Now, let's also keep in mind that this was not only Morrell's first fight as a Light Heavyweight, but it was also his first semi-legitimate opponent---however?--- given Kalajdzic's past proven fighting ability, and even though he was much better than Morrell's previous competition, the odds made Morrell a -5000 favorite and yes, you read that right---- Morrell was a -5000 favorite AND the other odds in that same fight made Kalajdzic a +1300 underdog, which actually made sense BEFORE the fight.

But how did that FIRST and only slight step-up fight with Kalajdzic go for Morrell ??

The majority of unbiased, objective boxing people I spoke to thought that Kalajdzic had done enough to get the decision over Morrell

Well, the fact is that most people, including myself, thought Morrell had lost and that Kaladjdzic won it 115-113. Some people might deny it, but after that fight ended, the majority of unbiased, objective boxing people I spoke to thought that Kalajdzic had done enough to win the decision from Morrell. In addition the fans on BoxRec thought that Kalajdzic had beaten Morrell in the fight by a score of 115-113. And I was additionally told by a friend that the live betting in that fight had considerably higher betting action coming in on Kalajdzic after the final round had ended, than it did for Morrell.

Now, while considering the 'REALITY" of that fight---- I will once again repeat that Kalajdzic was a +1300 underdog and Morrell was a -5000 favorite so think about what truly happened in that fight. A +1300 underdog DESERVED to beat the -5000 favorite David Morrell in the eyes of most unbiased people, and those who didn't have a vested interest in the fight. And so I personally view the  "reality" of that fight as a CON for Morrell in this upcoming fight with Benavidez.

And that was Morrell's very last fight too, and in the eyes of most unbiased viewers, the +1300 underdog had won the decision from the -5000 favorite David Morrell, and that DOES need to be considered no matter how much the media has played down the reality of that fight.

In truth, it seems that the only people who scored that fight for Morrell with no issues were the 3 judges whose scorecards were conspicuously, suspiciously and VERY politically WIDE in favor of Morrell to the point that the cards were obviously GREATLY biased due to Boxing Politics.

The reason for the Boxing Politics to rear its ugly head for that fight is obvious. Boxing NEEDED Morrell and Benavidez to BOTH win their fights at Light-Heavyweight, so that they can have this upcoming BIG money fight  that we are discussing right now on February 1st. And so those judge's scorecards were proven so wide, that it would have been IMPOSSIBLE for Morrell to have gotten the loss, no matter what might have happened in that fight, despite Kalajdzic winning the fight in the eyes of most objective observers.

Now, of course, the people who had a vested interest in boxing all put their spins on that fight too to try to gaslight the public into believing that what they saw with their own eyes did not happen, but the truth is the truth. I sink and swim on the reality of what  "truly" happens and not on any inside boxing person's politically driven agenda and in my opinion, that fight is a potential red flag. In addition, in all of Morrell's 12-round fights, particularly in this last one, he did not show any plan "B", so from what I have seen thus far in all his fights, at very best he has an average Ring IQ but has surely shown nothing more than that thus far in his career. 

The other con I have in the selling of Morrell in this fight is that he has only fought 4 rounds two times, and the others have been 2 rounds and they were all KO/TKO wins BUT that he was forced to have three 12 round fights against a low level of competition.

So??--- as another con??-- while Morrell looked great when he scored his stoppages against over-matched opponents in rounds 2-4  in 8 of his 11 professional fights, and when weighing that against how he performed in his 12-round fights against very low-level opposition, none of that can convince me that he is the fighter the Boxing Media has created in people's minds. 

His 2-4 round fights average out to the amount of rounds he was used to fighting as an amateur, so it is to be expected he would look impressive against low-level competition in 2-4 round fights, despite a number of those fights being scheduled for 12 rounds, as he is a decorated amateur and has always done well in 3-round fights, and was fighting opponents who were much lower level fighters than the Boxing Media would allow people to realize.

To sum up the cons?--- It seems to me that it is very possible that if Morrell does not KO/TKO his opponent in the first 4 rds as he has done 8 out of his 11 fights, when faced with adversity as the fight gets longer, and fighting a fighter that does not go down in those first four rounds, he is simply not the same devastating fighter that he is when the fights are shorter and at a distance he is completely used to.

That observation is not written in stone for Morrell quite yet, in my opinion, but I think it would be a mistake to ignore that his last fight was not a good one, and in judging Morrell's career thus far, I would say that his last fight certainly was a "negative " for him, in trying to figure out this fight. And the fact is that despite being a -5000 favorite, he only got that win because the plan was to have him and Benavidez fight in this BIG money fight all along.

Now, in my opinion, that needs to be weighed, along with all the other pros and cons of Morrell, in assessing this fight, as well as those of Benavidez that we are going to talk about now.

DAVID BENAVIDEZ - THE PROS

• Unbeaten after 29 fights, mixed at a higher level
• Speed, power, notable accuracy and work-rate
• Vast difference in pro experience

Well, in looking at the attributes of both these fighters, for starters we are looking at a fighter in Benavidez who is also unbeaten. He is 29-0 and he is 29-0 in the professional ranks among some high quality opposition, and for those who question his opposition, it has certainly been far better than Morrell's and he has certainly looked better than Morrell in the way he has won those fights too.

And, to repeat what I mentioned earlier, in regards to Benavidez's amateur career, which I am mentioning because that is one of Morrell's biggest attributes mistakenly being heavily weighed here??---  Benevidez might not have been as decorated an amateur as Morrell was, but that is NOT in any way a negative. It is as simple as the fact that Beneavidez was unbeaten in his time in the amateurs and finished with a record of 15-0 and decided to tone and develop his skills in the pros by working his way up the professional ranks and staying busy. 

Benevidez decided to not devote too much time to the amateurs, which is a move that I think is more beneficial to fighters, as too much time in the amateurs can often lead to underachievement and even bad habits as a professional. So, Benavidez turned pro 11 1/2 years ago, in comparison to Morrell who turned pro only 5 1/2 years ago, so Benavidez has been a professional fighter and has been beating professional fighters for SIX more years than Morrell, and that is a big plus on Benavidez's side.

I do not think that Morrell's decorated amateur background will matter at all in this fight, and I think it is being too focused on by those handicapping the fight. I would never even consider weighing his amateur career in trying to figure out the outcome of this fight, as it is only 10% of ALL amateurs that even go on to become professional fighters in the first place. 

Morrell's amateur background tells me that he has alot of potential and talent, that his tools and skills as a fighter have certainly been sharpened and that he has more experience than his 11 professional fights indicate. However, the opponents that he has sharpened his skills against in the professionals have been inconsequential, much older opponents and all but three of his fights have ended within 4 rounds.

And his longer fights, thus far, have proven very little except that he arguably should've lost his last fight when he went 12 rounds with a solid 33 year old +1300 underdog, as I have purposely repeatedly mentioned.

David Benevidez was a perfect 15-0 in the amateurs, turning pro in 2013. He throws a lot of punches in his fights and more importantly he lands a lot of punches in his fights

In comparison, David Benevidez was a perfect 15-0 in the amateurs, and decided to turn pro in 2013, and earned his way to the top by going through the professional ranks rather than spending too much time fighting 3-round fledgling fighters for years in the amateurs to get his ribbons. If that 15-0 amateur record of Benavidez is accurate, and I was told it was, then that means that Benevidez has never lost in the amateurs NOR has he ever lost in the pros either.

Another positive of Benevidez is that he is very fast, while also being very powerful and he also throws a lot of punches in his fights and more importantly he LANDS a lot of punches in his fights. He throws punches in bunches and wears his opponents down and he is also one of the most accurate punchers in boxing today, so he does not just throw alot of punches, but in addition, he also has a high accuracy rate.

He is also able to throw his punches from many different angles and they come fast and they come hard. His defense is very under-rated, as he holds his hands high to block many of the incoming punches, which also gives him the ability to counter-punch more effectively. Benevidez's defense has improved over these last years in my eyes, and though he still gets hit flush often enough in his fights, he has also proven to have a strong enough chin to take it, and then immediately counters with punches of his own.

Benevidez's speed is deceivingly fast and so are his counter-punching skills

Benevidez's speed is deceivingly fast and so are his counter-punching skills and it seems he's given many the impression of just having one style---and while he does "seemingly" fight in that one style most of the time, if one watches him with peripheral vision, rather than tunnel-vision, one can see that he has the ability to change his variety of punches and adjust his movement from within that style. It is a "Variation on a Theme" form of fighting coming from what seems to be the same style but his punches can be thrown with equal effectiveness from all different angles and seemingly coming from out of nowhere.

To conclude:  Benevidez is very far from the One-Trick Pony that his detractors seem to think he is.

Benevidez has recently been fighting an increasingly higher level of competition, and the southpaw fighting stance of Morrell should present NO problem to Benavidez as he literally OWNED the previously undefeated southpaw and top level fighter Demetrius Andrade when they fought a couple of fights ago. Benavidez's skills were on full display that night, as was his resilience, as he also got tagged a few times pretty good from Andrade. He took Andrade's best shots and immediately came back with his own even more effective punches.

He simply never let Andrade get the upper hand and Benavidez's punches were gradually doing an increasing amount of damage as the fight approached the middle rounds and his counter-punching ability showed itself to be equally effective against southpaws.

That fight is now history, of course, as the previously undefeated Andrade was no longer able to continue after 6 rounds of Benavidez's style, speed and consistent punching in the ring. And let's also keep in mind that Andrade was doing well in the first two rounds of his fight with Benavidez, and I expect very much the same from Morrell, before Benavidez catches up to him.

Now let's compare Benavidez's last fight, which was his first fight at Light Heavyweight, with Morrell's last fight and first fight at Light Heavyweight too. Well, for starters, Morrell was -5000 to win the fight and the great majority of boxing fans who were unbiased thought that the huge underdog Kalajdzic won a close, competitive decision. But, even if it had been ruled a draw, the observation of how Morrell fought against his first solid opponent would still have to be considered a disappointment to his fans, and this is important to consider in trying to predict the outcome of this fight.

Morrell took a slight step up against a 33 year old fighter and not only went 12 rounds, but most unbiased viewers thought Morrell had lost the decision and the one-sided scorecards in Morrell's favor proved that the judges were intent on making this fight with Benavidez, because those scorecards were absolutely absurd in my opinion.

Now, on Benavidez's end, in the same scenario as Morrell, in HIS last fight and first fight at Light Heavyweight, Benavidez was a -650 favorite and Oleksandr Gvozdyk was a +450 underdog. In THAT fight and in comparison to Morrell's last fight, Benavidez fought a far more dangerous opponent in Gvozdyk and the fight went the distance in a VERY WIDE unanimous decision victory for Benavidez.

Benavidez was unable to KO/TKO the hard-hitting Gvozdyk, but one can give Benavidez some wiggle room there as that was his first fight at Light-Heavyweight and most importantly, he did not get what many thought was a gift. He managed to win very widely and clearly against a more dangerous opponent in the eyes of every single person who saw that fight, from the judges to the "Insider Boxing People" to those with a vested interest in the fight and to the most important viewers of all (the fans and public opinion) as they all viewed it as a one-sided Benavidez victory.

Some criticized Benavidez's performance because of him not getting his usual KO/TKO over an opponent who had been TKOed in the 10th round by Artur Beterbiev

Some criticized Benavidez's performance because of him not getting his usual KO/TKO over an opponent who had been TKOed in the 10th round by Artur Beterbiev. But in that fight with Beterbiev, Benavidez's opponent Gvozdyk was leading on the cards against Beterbiev when Beterviev scored the TKO in round 10--- whereas Morrell's opponent Kalajdzic had lost every single round before Beterbiev KOED him in the 5th round. 

That means that the mere fact that they both fought and get stopped by Beterbiev does not mean their performances were equal against Beterbiev, when one considers that Gvozdyk did very well and was beating Beterbiev on the cards for 10 rounds before getting careless and being stopped by a TKO-----where-as Kalajdzic, Morrell's last opponent had lost every single round to Beterbiev and was mercifully KOed in round 5.

There is nothing in their respective fights with Beterbiev to indicate that those Beterbiev fights were comparable, simply because they both got stopped by the same opponent.

The Boxing Media had started spinning that narrative at the time, right after Morrell fought Kalajdzic and got that very questionable decision. But if we follow that Boxing Media narrative, and one is to simply look at the Beterbiev fight as most Boxing insiders did after the Morrell fight, then one must conclude that Gvozdyk and Kalajdzic did not perform equally well against Beterbiev, and that Gvozdyk fought at a much higher level against Beterbiev. 

The Boxing insiders had tried to spin the narrative that they were comparable fighters after Morrell had struggled mightily with Kalajdzic by simply mentioning that they were both "stopped  by Beterbiev, without giving the fans any other very important details like the fact that Kalajdzic lost every second of the fight and was KOed in 5 rds---and that Gozdyk was ahead on the cards in the 10th round, got careless and was TKOed. That being said, Gvozdyk was a legitimate test at Light-Heavyweight for Benavidez as the odds indicated, and Benavidez beat him very widely.

We must also remember that this was Benavidez's very first fight as a Light-Heavyweight and he tested himself at a high level and passed with flying colors, and now he has some experience at Light-Heavyweight to draw upon, just the same as Morrell got himself some experience in his first fight at Light-Heavyweight to draw upon too, but in a fight that had a highly questionable result.

In looking at this matchup I cannot ignore that in Morrell's step-up fight he lost in the eyes of most in his first real test. Additionally, Boxing Politics has been very careful to sweep the facts about Morrell's last fight under the rug and just talk about the fact that he won a wide decision, which is sadly officially factual according to the hysterically political judge's wide decisions on their cards. But in betting this fight, one would be wise to watch that fight back to remind themselves of what actually "really" happened, how it happened,  and how Morrell fought when truly challenged and not to rely on the words of an agenda-driven Boxing Media. 

I'd advise everyone to watch Morrell's last fight back and also Benavidez's last fight back too, and then consider the level of opposition they were each fighting and to score it themselves because Morrell's weaknesses were exposed in that fight as I saw it and he can not afford to fight that same way against Benavidez. As I see it, even if a viewer thought Morrell won that fight, they'd have to be a casual fan not to realize that the fight was MUCH too close for someone rated as highly as Morrell. And additionally, it was much too close for a -5000 favorite to have against a +1300 fighter.

And I do not believe it was an "off" night for Morrell, as it was the most important fight of his career and he clearly gave it all he had but was up against a higher level opponent, and Morrell fought his very best as he HAD to win that fight in order to be able to get the fight with Benavidez that we are all so excited about on Feb 1st, and most thought he lost.

Now we all know that we can not use triangle theories in boxing, nor can we judge fighters off just one fight, which is something that favors Benavidez as he has had a good number of more impressive fights and has shown more varied ways of winning over top opposition than Morrell has. If we ignore Morrell's amateur career, which doesn't mean anything now that he is in the pros, Morrell has yet to win even one fight over a nearly top-level professional opponent, if one looks at the realities that most thought he lost his last fight.

DAVID BENAVIDEZ - THE CONS

• Slow starter, forced out of comfort zone?
• Vulnerable to the body?

David Benavidez does have some issues that can cause him problems in his fight with Morrell. Benavidez has a tendency to start his fights slowly, as he did against Andrade, while Morrell is used to starting his fights much faster. This could pose a problem in that Morrell is very accurate with HIS power punches too, and I also expect Morrell to be most effective against Benavidez in the earlier rounds. I am assuming the trainers of Benavidez are going to have him ready for a very fast start in this particular fight to avoid getting caught by a hard flush punch of Morrell's before the fight even really gets started.

Another con is that Benavidez might have to fight a little more out of his comfort zone than he is used to, particularly in this fight's very early rounds, but that is also depending on the game plan that Morrell chooses to come into the fight with, as Morrell might try to be patient and start slower than expected. But long amateur careers often can have the ability to instill bad habits in certain fighters due to their 3-round length, and how much the mere fact of being an amateur can become ingrained in certain fighters. It is possible that Morrell might not be able to make that adjustment effectively, and it certainly will not be instinctive against someone as good as Benevidez, just as David Nyika was recently not able to adjust, pace himself and fight a smarter fight when he fought Jai Opetaia.

One must conclude that if Morrell fights as he always has, Benavidez might not have the luxury of getting warmed up against a fast and powerful starter like David Morrell

On the negative side for Benavidez and on the positive side for Morrell, we must keep in mind that Morrell's amateur career was somewhere between 135 and 140 3-round fights, and that Benavidez is a fighter who likes to gradually get warmed up. One must conclude that if Morrell fights as he always has, that Benavidez might not have that luxury of getting warmed up against a fast and powerful starter like David Morrell, and he needs to be very prepared for that, especially defensively.

Benavidez's high guard that he uses for defense has been effective in keeping his face from being hit as often as it used to, but that same effective high guard can leave Benavidez open for body shots, and it remains to be seen if any opponent can capitalize on that. But so far, it has not been to his detriment, nor has it happened very often. 

Gvozdyk landed body shots but they did not seem to have much effect on Benavidez and Gvozdyk's punches are no day at the beach

Gvozdyk landed body shots AND head shots, but they did not seem to have much effect on Benavidez, and Gvozdyk's punches are no day at the beach. But that effective high guard of Benavidez's does leave his body a bit more open, but it remains to be seen how Benavidez will react to being hit in the body, because his counter-punching is so effective that he might very well hit Morrell right after receiving a body shot from Morrell, as Morrell might leave himself open from "throwing" the body shot.

And if Morrell leaves himself open as I expect (I see that as one of his weaknesses), Benavidez is very fast to counter and is also very resilient. Either way, though, it is still a potential issue that I am not sure how Benavidez will react to going forward. But so far, it has not been an issue, but Morrell does pack a powerful punch, so while Benavidez's high guard defense is a plus, it also might come at the cost of leaving his body vulnerable, so he has to watch out for that, in my opinion as much as he can in those first 4 rounds or there-a-bouts. 

THE FIGHT

I see this fight starting with Morrell looking very good, moving around and landing on Benevidez in a spirited start to the fight. I believe the very early rounds will be very intense feeling out rounds, while at the same time being fought with both fighters ready to go to war or even ready to end it early if the opportunity arises, especially in the case of Morrell.

The first 4 rounds will be fought at a frenetic pace, with a lot of action and more power punches than usual being thrown

And I think the first 4 rounds will be fought at a frenetic pace, with a lot of action and more power punches than usual being thrown. In my opinion, rounds 1-4 are the only rounds that I believe Benavidez needs to be extremely wary of, and he must make sure not to make too many defensive mistakes, early in this fight.

After the first-third of the fight is over, I expect Benevidez to have figured out what to expect from Morrell, and I can see Morrell start to very gradually slow down due to the relentless style and attack of Benavidez. That is when I expect Benavidez to take complete control of the fight. Benavidez is EASILY the BEST opponent that Morrell has ever faced, but the same can NOT be said for Benavidez, as right now I do NOT VIEW Morrell as a step up in competition in any way for Benavidez, but I DO view Benavidez as a very big step up for David Morrell.

I think Morrell's style of fighting plays right into Benavidez's hands

And I believe that observation is going to be a major player in this fight, along with the fact that I think Morrell's style of fighting plays right into Benavidez's hands.

THE THEATRE OF THE UNEXPECTED

In addition, even in the first 4 or so rounds I expect Benavidez to start more quickly and to be landing more frequently than we have seen him do before, in order to keep up with Morrell as Morrell is his most comfortable in fights with fast starts and in which he can impose his will and get the early stoppage. But I consider his chances to do that to Benavidez as very close to zero as one can get in the uncertain world of boxing, or as Larry Merchant used to call it "The Theatre of the Unexpected".

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I just can NOT see that scenario happening against Benavidez, who is a worthy champion and a huge step up in class for Morrell in the pros. Morrell's amateur pedigree might have taught him the fundamentals and toned his skills, but his decorated amateur career will not be able to help him in this fight against the top-level professional that is David Benavidez.

One needs only look at his last fight and a few of his other fights to see my reason for feeling that way.

In fact, Morrell's amateur career might be a hindrance if this fight makes it into the 5th round against a professional fighter as skilled as Benavidez as I expect the effects of Benevidez's non-stop accurate punching and counter-punching to become more and more evident with each passing round. I also think Morrell will play into Benevidez's hands because when Morrell throws a big left and it misses completely or even if it only partially hits the target, he tends to leave himself wide open and for a good bit longer than he should too, in my opinion.

Throwing his left with bad intentions too recklessly will also be a huge mistake for Morrell with a counter-puncher with Benavidez's speed and considering the huge amount of accurate punches that Benavidez lands

I think that throwing his left with bad intentions too recklessly will also be a huge mistake for Morrell with a counter-puncher with Benavidez's speed and considering the huge amount of accurate punches that Benavidez lands and I do not think Morrell has too many fallback plans. I also don't think he will be able to fight any differently than we have already seen in the past. I expect Morrell to hit Benavidez's guard more than he will actually hit Benavidez flush, as I think Benavidez has gotten much better with his high guard. That high guard will leave him ready to counter-punch quickly, and if Morrell misses and he WILL miss during this fight, I see Benavidez repeatedly making Morrell pay for it and I think Benavidez's high-guard, coupled with his counter-punching and work rate are going to be the game-changers in this fight

In addition, Morrell fights in two basic styles and he is not a hard fighter to figure out as both styles are very basic and he has no plan 'B" other than going back and forth between those two styles. If he does have a plan B, I have not seen evidence of it yet in the professional ranks. 

Morrell either moves from side to side when he is fighting which has been very effective against lesser opponents when he fights that way, but at many times, and in all his fights he eventually takes time in the fights to stand right in front of his opponents, usually when he is trying to back them up with power shots and aggression. I feel certain that Morrell WILL try to do that in this fight too, as it is in Morrell's DNA to do that, as I see it, and I think it might possibly end up being Morrell's gradual undoing in this fight.

This also might be one of the issues that could have been corrected if he had turned pro sooner and his handlers got the chance to see how he would deal with fighting through adversity in the middle and late rounds which he has only had to do one time in his life. In the only fight that happened in,  most everybody thought Morrell got a fortunate decision and Benavidez is surely a much better fighter and different animal than the 33-year-old Radivoje Kalajgdic, who was the fighter that most observers thought had beaten Morrell.

In addition, Morrell will not only be taking a big step up, but he will also be fighting a top professional who is HIS OWN AGE. Benavidez is 28 and Morrell is 27----- but Benavidez has much more professional experience and is 29-0. Morrell doesn't have that same professional experience as he spent alot of time in the amateurs fighting 3 round fights. And I believe that fact will work against him here too, as he is only 11-0 as a professional and in my opinion he has alot of potential but is stepping up too soon.

And while I can clearly see that most of the usual tactics of Morrell work well against the level of fighters he has been fighting, I can actually see it working against him in fighting a champion on the level of Benavidez. It is as simple as he has never fought anybody in Benavidez's class who was actually also young and in his prime. And when Morrell tries to land one of his big bad intention punches, he is going to leave himself open and due to their stylistic differences, as the fight goes on, Benaviodez is going to increasingly punish Morrell, and I think Benevidez is going to punish Morrell a bit more than most people think too.

Let's add into the mix the fact that Morrell is a southpaw and Benavidez had one of his best, most impressive fights against the undefeated, top level southpaw Demetrius Andrade. The fact is that I believe all this is going to work against Morrell from what I have seen in Morrell's past pro fights. Benavidez is FAST, and if Morrell throws his left-hand power punch with bad intentions to a counterpuncher as fast and accurate as Benavidez , he will be leaving the entire left side of his face open as usual, and as I have already mentioned, I expect him to get peppered with continual counters from Benavidez's powerful right hand.

While Morrell does have sound fundamentals and good defense, he is taking a huge step up here and that can not be ignored

And if Benavidez tags him like that, and I expect he will, it will usually be followed by a lot more punches as Benavidez throws and lands alot of punches and I don't think Morrell's defense is ready for a fighter like Benavidez and I expect Benavidez's punches in bunches will continue for as long as the fight goes on. While Morrell does have sound fundamentals and good defense, he is taking a huge step up here and that can not be ignored.

Morrell will also not be able to be someone he isn't, nor has he ever needed to be before. It is my belief that he is taking this fight earlier than he should, so I do not expect him to be calm, collected and patient, but rather I expect the flaws he has as a professional to be even more pronounced when he fights Benavidez.

I expect that just like he did throughout his amateur and professional career so far, Morrell is going to be swinging for the fences with his left, but that is not wise unless he is 100% sure that he can land it on Benavidez as he has on so many others, because if it doesn't land, at some point Benavidez is going to land his right on the open left side of Morrell's face and Benavidez will follow that up too. In my mind, I see that happening on a regular basis in this fight, and because Morrell is not a fighter that has yet to show a boxing IQ, I do not expect him to have any plan B at all for Benavidez in this fight.

In looking at this as if I was a trainer, I believe Morrell needs to pace himself in this fight more than he has in previous fights, as Benavidez is a different animal than all of his previous opponents. And I think Morrell will also need to be more defensive-minded than he has ever needed to be in all his previous fights too. But if Morrell CAN make those two changes it would affect his natural style a good bit, and I think his lack of professional experience will lead that to unsettling him.

But, the irony is that I also believe he is going to need to do exactly that in order to win this fight, because unless he can nail Benavidez and knock him out early, which I do not see happening, then I think from about round 4 onward, it is going to be a very unpleasant learning experience for Morrell.

One major negative of amateur backgrounds that are too extensive, is that as much as fighters learn, their bad habits also become more ingrained in them which is why amateur careers are best kept on the shorter side and somewhere between 40-90 fights at best because once a fighter is out of the amateurs and becomes a pro, if that fighter stayed in the amateurs too long and doesn't have enough "true" professional experience, those habits become ingrained in them, and again there are exceptions to every rule, but as a general statement that is the truth.

That extensive time in the amateurs in which they were levels above mostly fledgling fighters in 3 round fights makes their bad habits much harder to break than any bad habits that one falls into as a professional fighter who is fighting longer fights, or even just fighting against professional fighters.

One reason for that is that it can be VERY difficult to be able to detect certain BAD habits a boxer might have when the fights are only 3 rounds. Many boxers have bad habits that would not even become evident in the amateurs, because they might have bad habits that would not even reveal themselves until  the middle of a fight or when they get tired, or when they get hit later in one of their fights, but in the amateurs there is no way of detecting that. And these amateurs with too many fights at the amateur level can often become very set in those negative ways, and the longer their amateur career go, the longer those bad habits go undetected, simply due to their bad habits not showing themselves in only 9 minutes of fighting in those 3-round fights.

As a pro, when a bad habit is detected, it is caught immediately by the trainer and it is worked on in training, so that can be another drawback of amateur careers being too long, no matter how decorated an amateur might be. That being said, I am not referring specifically to Morrell here at all, as it is impossible to be sure if that is the case with Morrell , as 135-140 amateur fights is a lot of amateur fights, but he is still very young.

And it is also not such an incredibly high number of amateur fights that it should be able to have too much of a negative effect on him as a professional. But due to those issues I mentioned, I do think that possibility needs to be taken very seriously, because Morrell looked out of sorts in his last fight at 12 rounds and that was against a fighter who is clearly not on Benavidez's level.

Morrell shows pretty good defense when he is conscious of being defensively responsible, but when he starts trying to move fighters backwards, he starts forsaking that defense

In my opinion, Morrell shows pretty good defense when he is boxing and is conscious of being defensively responsible, but when he starts trying to go in for the kill and move fighters backwards, he starts forsaking his defense, even to the extent of standing right in front of them, as I have seen him do in just about all his fights. And when he does that he is very hittable, except none of his lower level opponents had the tools to capitalize on that yet, besides Kalajdzic, though he was not given credit for it, but he DID expose it quite often.  You can bet Banavidez's camp is watching videos of that fight. And in this upcoming fight, I see that open target as being very inviting to someone as crafty, accurate and unrelenting as Benavidez.

I have not seen certain evidence Morrell is still stuck in some of his amateur ways, but from watching his fights, I'd say that he is not yet totally comfortable as fights go past his comfort zone, which I would estimate at about 5 rounds at the most. He seems clearly at his best and more comfortable earlier in his fights, and I do think it is something well worth considering strongly when breaking down this fight.

It is my belief that while anything can happen in boxing, I do not foresee Morrell being able to do to Benevidez what he did to those other much older, lower-level fighters he has been fighting during his relatively short professional career Aside from Morrell's handling of the fight itself, Benavidez is also going to be hitting and boxing Morrell in a way that Morrell has never experienced before, but only time will tell how it affects Morrell. One thing is for certain and it is that Morrell appears to be at his most vulnerable defensively AFTER throwing his power punches or when trying to back his opponent up to land one of his power punches and he usually leaves himself very open at those times.

Those will be grave mistakes to make against Benavidez.

I believe Benavidez is at his best against the exact style I am expecting Morrell to use in this fight. I think Morrell's noticeable vulnerabilities and weaknesses were not able to be greatly exposed in the amateurs as he was nothing short of a very dominant amateur, and so they were never worked on. Additionally, in the pros, so far, his weaknesses were surely evident, but were not enough for his opponent to capitalize on because of his level of competition, and due to him ending most of his fights by KO/TKO before 4 rounds, but the problem facing Morrell in this fight is that one of his trademark early ending stoppages is very unlikely to happen in this fight against David Benavidez, which means Morrell is going to have to dig deep down to a place he has never had to go to before.

As I mentioned, in his last fight, a 12 rounder, those mistakes were exposed by Radivoje Kalajdzic, who I keep reiterating won in the eyes of most people and is not the level of fighter that David Benavidez is. It is as simple as this--- Morrell is going to need to raise his game levels above his last fight as well as levels above all his fights if he hopes to win, as compared to Benavidez who will be able to relax and fight the way he usually does, while just paying a little more attention to his defense in the first 3-4 rounds.

THE PREDICTION

It is once again finally time to look into the Crystal Ball and see what it reflects in this fight

The image in #CRYSTALBALLBOXING is coming through and The Crystal Ball reflects that Morrell will be fighting his hardest opponent by far in Benavidez, who is a top Grade A fighter, is in his prime, and is the same age as him too. And those are 3 things of which Morrell has never, ever done before, and he will be doing ALL THREE of those things for the first time against Benavidez in this Feb 1st fight and the Crystal Ball sees the fight being a good one for a while, and sees Morrell enjoying some success in the first third of the fight, but that the success that Morrell enjoys will come at a price.

The Crystal Ball reflects a very gradual, methodical breakdown of Morrell as he will be enjoying what will seem to be some early success while he is being slowly chipped away at by Benavidez. I expect that by the end of about round 4, the tide will begin visibly turning towards Benavidez, and that the accumulation of the earlier shots is going to slow Morrell down as he approaches the midway point in the fight. Once that happens, I think Benavidez will capitalize on that, because Benavidez is the best fighter that Morrell has ever fought in his entire life, but I don't believe that Morrell has proven himself to be the best fighter that Benavidez has ever faced at this point of his career

The Crystal Ball is reflecting a final image now and the image is coming in very clearly now and it is reflecting:

• David Benavidez To WIN the fight and beat David Morrell, and more specifically:
• David Benavidez to beat David Morrell by a Mid-Late fight stoppage.

The Crystal Ball is reflecting a good scrap for the first 4-5 rounds with a lot of ebb and flow, and it expects the beginning to be very exciting, but then it is reflecting the fight clearly being taken over by Benavidez starting in rounds 4 or 5. It is reflecting that Benavidez is going to do extremely well in the second half of the fight.

And while this fight "could" possibly go to the cards if Morrell can take more punishment than I think he can and than I think his corner will allow, the Crystal Ball is expecting Benavidez to stop Morrell at some point in the second half of the fight, and in a harsher fashion than is expected.

THE BETTING

Now that the Crystal Ball has been looked into and read, the next question becomes, how does one find value in this fight in the scenario the Crystal Ball has just reflected? Betting can be a very individualistic thing but for those of you that agree with the Crystal Ball's Prediction for this fight:

(1) STRAIGHT BET :

• place 100% of your stake on the Moneyline: "David Benavidez to Win" at -180

(2) SHARPBETTING BET :

• place 85% of your stake on the Moneyline: "David Benavidez to Win" at -180 
• place 15% of your stake on "David Benavidez to win by KO/TKO/DQ" at +333

Click here to convert US Odds to Decimal and Fractional formats 

THE WHAT IF...

To put this bet into perspective, we will use the mythical bankroll of $100.

• placing 85% of that mythical bankroll of $100 would be an $85 bet on "Benavidez to win" ( at -180) which would win the bettor back $132.22 if the fight goes the distance and Benavidez ends up winning by a decision--- which would make the bettor a profit of $32.22 and a nice, healthy ROI of over 32% on the mythical $100 total investment.
• placing the remaining 15% of that mythical bankroll of $100 would be a $15 bet on " Benavidez to win by KO/TKO/DQ" ( at +333) which would win the bettor back $86.60 for the $20 KO/TKO/DQ bet---and they would also automatically win the first bet of $132.22 for "Benavidez to win" ( at -180) which would make them a profit of $111.04 for a total payout of $211.04 which is a healthy ROI of 111 %.

Those are the #CrystalBallBoxing Betting suggestions I would make for this particular bet if you agree with my assessment that Benevidez will not only win the fight but has a very good chance at winning the fight by a stoppage too.

Placing 85% of your bet on Benavidez to win in any fashion will not pay the bettor much less than if he bet 100% of his bankroll on Benavidez to win in ANY fashion, but by making that small sacrifice and placing that remaining 15% on the TKO/KO/DQ, we are now creating ourselves a bet with odds off +333 which will considerably fatten up our bet's entire payout if we should be right.

• As an example on that same mythical $100, if we were to place it ALL on  "Benavidez to Win" at -180 we would get back $155.56 which is only $23.34 more than we would win if we only bet 85% of that mythical $100 on "Benavidez To Win". But if Benavidez scores the stoppage of Morrell then we would get back $211.04 which is $55.48 more than the $155.56 we would get back if we only bet "Benavidez to Win", and for my personal style of betting, that is a risk I will happily take.

Obviously there are many other lucrative prop bets that have alot more inherent risk, but pay alot more and that is all up to each individual's personal feelings and level of confidence on how they want to invest their own money, and how much risk they are willing to take in placing their bets.  

These bets are suggested for those who believe in the above scenario as I do, and want the least risk with the highest payout. If Benavidez should win by a KO/TKO/DQ then they will more than double their investment, which is an incredibly healthy profit, and the way this bet is set up there will be a healthy profit either way.

Anyway, #CrystalBallBoxing has reflected as best as I was able to read it and it thinks Benavidez is going to win this one by a KO/TKO stoppage, but suggests betting it in the fashion above if you want the safest bets for the scenario it is reflecting.

Keep on Rocking, Making Money, Betting Smartly and remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose, my friends !!---- All the best,

Johnny Wright, USA

THE BOXING BUG & JOHNNY WRIGHT

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Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson; 15 November 2024.  Why so serious?

Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury; 18 May 2024. The 9th Round.