The most important thing in boxing is timing. Not just in the ring, but in the match-making decisions promoters make when deciding to boost a promotion, specifically when it is time to put a prospect in against an established name. This is what we have on Saturday night in Riyadh.
Time Until First Bell:
[Note: this was changed on Friday of fight-week to a 10-Round main event contest so any bets on the original grouped round markets quoted in this article would now be voided.]
The Main Event
One of the things that I like most about betting on boxing is the lack of data that can be analysed when assessing a fight. But before getting on to the style match-up, there are half-a-dozen data-points I will always look out for when deciding on my bet. In this Moses Itauma versus Dillian Whyte fight, we have a clean sweep in terms of predicting who will win.
- A media narrative that is gaslighting the public: ”‘Best ever’ Dillian Whyte leaves fans astounded as he flaunts stunning physique for Moses Itauma fight.” (Parody-levels of hyperbole in this one)
- Ignore the crowd: Dillian Whyte has been getting betting support during fight week.
- Small inner-circle has independently reached the same conclusion.
- There’s a southpaw component to the contest.
- The fight features a hot prospect versus an established name who is getting a big payday.
- There’s an aging fighter involved; a candidate for the 38-Year-Old rule.
- Paddock watching: “From what I’ve seen of Dillian Whyte this week, I can’t recall seeing a PPV main event fighter look so disinterested in even pretending that he thinks he can win, will win, or even wants to win. Just looks off.”
In this fight, we have a near perfect-storm of all the factors I consider before even looking at how the styles will match-up.
When the opening lines appeared for this fight [14-June-2025], Moses Itauma could be backed in the UK 3-Way Fight Winner Market (1X2) at decimal odds of 1.36 (4/11 fractional, -278 US Odds). He is now as short as 1.07 (1/14 fractional, -1429 US Odds) with some firms.
That 1.36 opening price was so far off that it would probably have made more sense if the decimal point was in fact a slash: I would be more likely to make Itauma a 1/36 favourite than a 1.36 shot.
That 1.36 opening price was so far off that it would probably have made more sense if the decimal point was in fact a slash: I would be more likely to make Itauma a 1/36 favourite than a 1.36 shot.
So what is the point of this preview? To recommend backing Moses in the Moneyline? No, but if you’re looking for a line to boost an acca this weekend, fill your boots.
Instead, we have to think about where we can find anything approaching “value” in the latest odds. I think Dillian will do his part in this event. He has already shown willing by getting in to some sort of shape at face value. If he had come in looking like he did, physically, in some of his recent outings, the optics would destroy the narrative of the promotion.
So he has done his first job. Next up, he needs to stay on his feet for long enough that the post-fight appraisals will give credit to Itauma for beating the veteran who turned up in great shape, “came to win”, and put on a good performance.
How does that narrative play-out? Personally I think the referee* will intervene to prevent Whyte from shipping too much punishment (possibly prematurely) in Rounds 4 to 6. But you’ll be doing well to find 2/1 about that, so it’s unlikely to be very attractive. Kudos to the sportsbooks for making that outcome just unattractive enough not to bet it!
The 5/1 about Itauma winning in Rounds 7 to 9 therefore comes into play. Not a bad shout for those looking for a solid return. Go to StarSports for this one; they also offer a decent moneyback offer in their Round Betting odds.
If you can find 2/1 for Rounds 4-6 and 5/1 for Rounds 7-9 and Dutch them (use our calculator here) you will get bang-on even-money (2.00 decimal, +100 US Odds). That would be my play as one way of getting some non-odds-on interest out of the main event.
At 37 years old, with a style and physicality not ideally suitable for longevity in this sport, and having never faced a southpaw of note, if Whyte was to pull this off and upset the apple cart in a way not seen since Amir Khan lost to Breidis Prescot (worth pulling this up again), it would be truly shocking.
Plenty of questions remain about Itauma (I want to see more evidence that he keeps his chin down in this fight, something that can be neglected by dominant on-top fighters), but this fight looks tailor-made for him.
UPDATE: Was 12 Rounds now 10 Rounds
On Friday of fight week, it was announced that Itauma-Whyte would now be a 10-Round contest, thus voiding any bets on the rounds placed previously. Changing the format of a PPV headline fight on just one day's notice? That's boxing.
The latest grouped rounds are shown below. Dutching the highlighted odds gets us 2.08 (nearly 11/10; +108 US odds) for Itauma to win in rounds 4 through 8.
The Undercard
Back in June, not only was Moses available at 1.36, but Nick Ball was a 1.57 shot (4/7 fractional; -175 US Odds) to beat Sam Goodman. Ball is the World Boxing Association (WBA) title-holder at featherweight and currently the only British male world champion in the sport. A few months on from those opening lines, he is now generally a 1.2 favourite (1/5 fractional; -500 US Odds).
Raymond Ford, a tremendous stylist, is also in action, but sadly not against Anthony Cacace, the original appointment. And even more sadly not with the even-money price tag he was for that original contest.
The Itauma-Ball-Ford treble was paying 4.27 in decimal odds in June. With the recent market movements and Cacace being replaced as Raymond Ford's opponent by Abraham Nova, that same treble is now basically a 2/1-on shot (1.48 decimal odds). Disgusting to pick that price now, but I've got all three of them in various parlays for this card, and for later in the boxing schedule.
- The combined probability of these 3 boxers winning is 58%. A treble would pay 1.48 in decimal odds for these selections: Itauma (1.11), Ford (1.11), Ball (1.20). The 3-fight parlay is -209 in US Odds.
- If you are looking for a boxing accumulator or want to see the direction of the Moneyline movements based on betting public sentiment, try out the SharpBetting boxing odds filtering tool here.
Then there is arguable the most fascinating cross-roads fight between the other two heavyweights on the bill. Filip Hrgovic is rightly favoured to beat David Adeleye, but the Moneyline seemed a little too wide from the get-go here too. We took Adeleye at the 5.00 decimal odds. There is some justification to back him to win by stoppage too, what with Hrgovic propensity to cut. The fight not to go the distance is odds-on (1.66 with Bet365) which doesn't catch the eye, but perhaps the 6/1 for David to win inside schedule would make for a decent bet to cheer on.
It is a decent undercard, but certainly not stellar. And there has been plenty of debate as to whether or not it justifies PPV status. This heavyweight clash is the one I am most looking forward to, I just think the price for the dog is too wide. We will see.
The SharpBetting Line
The SharpBetting Line identifies the Over/Under performance midpoint for the betting favourite in the fight. The question is, will the favourite do better or worse than the betting market anticipates?
- Ball wins before end of Round 11 = 50.8%
- Hrgovic wins before end of Round 10 = 46.1%
- Itauma wins before end of Round 6 = 53.4%
- Tsutsumi wins before end of Round 6 = 52.1%
The Scorecard
Watching the fights? Try our interactive scorecard that allows you to give your opinion and a backup total when the rounds are hard to score.
[ * = note that with the recent, horrific and tragic events in Japan, referees around the world are likely to be hyper-alert, subliminally or otherwise, about intervening in contests.]
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