The 38-Year-Old Rule

• Other boxing

A rule in boxing betting?

When assessing the strengths and weaknesses of two boxers before a contest, it is of course essential to do a technical breakdown. But beyond that assumption, there is a simple rule that can be used to find an additional edge when looking for potential value in the boxing betting lines. We call it The 38-Year-Old Rule.      

The 38-Year-Old Rule: a closer look

In the world of boxing, there's an almost unwritten rule that comes into play when a fighter reaches the age of 38: an asterisk should accompany any fight they participate in. It is especially pertinent when we are considering betting on the fights that feature a boxer who is threatening to break the rule. This guideline has served me well over the years as I've searched for value in high-stakes matches. The implications of this rule are profound; they highlight the challenges that come with aging in a physically demanding sport like boxing and there are notably few exceptions. As the saying goes, Father Time is undefeated.

Despite the improvements in diet, strength and conditioning, and everything else that goes into a modern training camp, this concept of boxers hitting a rapid decline after the age of 37 is something that goes back for decades. Indeed, Muhammad Ali himself is a prime example of this.

It is unlikely to change anytime soon. 

As boxing fans, we can sometimes be guilty of putting the "fan" before the "fact" and this can result in unrealistic expectations about the athletic prowess of elite-level athletes as they get close to forty.  Foreman, Hopkins, Brady, Djokovic, Ronaldo... these are all very rare exceptions to a rule that, if not hard-and-fast, should certainly be considered when assessing the big fights. 

Analysis of 21 well-known boxers

The graph on this page shows 21 boxers that span half a century of the sport. Some are household names who have transcended boxing. All of them share one thing in common,  they have a landmark event in their careers that highlights the importance of The 38-Year-Old Rule.

If you take each of their ages at the time of the event highlighted, to the exact day, and average them out across the 21 examples, their average age is: 

37 years and 359 days

That is less than a week shy of 38.

Notable examples of the 38-Year-Old Rule

Consider the legendary Julio Cesar Chavez, who announced his retirement immediately after being decisively defeated by Kostya Tszyu at the age of 38. This marked the end of a Hall of Fame career that had captivated fans for years. 

Julio Cesar Chavez, aged 38, after being outclassed by Kostya Tszyu

It looks like it's time for me to retire. It's time for me to leave.

Similarly, all-time great Floyd Mayweather Jr fought his last significant bout at the age of 38, underscoring the struggles many fighters face as they approach this age milestone.

Lennox Lewis experienced a pivotal moment in his career when he was nearly 38, facing off against Vitali Klitschko. This fight revealed Lewis's decline, as he battled to secure a win against a late replacement who was viewed as a significant underdog. Heavyweight icon Larry Holmes, at 38, suffered a humiliating defeat to a prime Mike Tyson in 1988, illustrating how significantly a fighter's fortunes can change with age. Sometimes they may look unchanged, but that can be deceiving. 

Mike Tyson himself always looked in tremendous physical condition in the latter years of his career. But in terms of boxing ability,  he was unrecognisable by the time he fought his last match at 38, where he was defeated by Kevin McBride, another huge underdog.

Evander Holyfield, though able to defeat John Ruiz at 37, was unable to replicate that success in their subsequent fights after turning 38. Muhammad Ali, widely regarded as the greatest boxer of all time, experienced his final career victory at 36, but at 38, he faced a notorious loss against Larry Holmes.

Deontay Wilder also encountered this age-related decline when he turned 38 and suffered a comprehensive defeat at the hands of 6/1 underdog Joseph Parker. David Haye chose to retire just before reaching 38, having faced consecutive losses and injuries during his bouts with Tony Bellew. Joe Joyce, nearing 38, faced his first career loss as a significant favorite against Zhilei Zhang.

Interestingly, Zhang, who was in his 40s, was heavily favored to defeat Joseph Parker, only for Parker to defy the odds in their encounter. Joe Calzaghe's victories over a 43-year-old Bernard Hopkins and a nearly 40-year-old Roy Jones Jr. demonstrate how age can dramatically alter the competitive landscape; these outcomes might have been very different a decade earlier.

The ongoing relevance of the rule

Throughout boxing history, the impact of aging on fighters has often been underestimated by both fans and oddsmakers. Although advancements in strength and conditioning may help to extend a boxer's prime, The 38-Year-Old Rule remains significant and relevant.

It serves as a critical reminder of the physical toll the sport takes on its athletes. As fighters age, the likelihood of significant defeats increases, making it crucial for fans and analysts alike to consider age when evaluating boxing match outcomes.

The 38-Year-Old Rule roster

Muhammad Ali vs. Larry Holmes 

Muhammad Ali, aged 38, faced reigning WBC Heavyweight Champion Larry Holmes (who was 30 years old) in October 1980 at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. Ali, returning to the ring after a two-year hiatus, was past his prime and showed signs of physical decline. Holmes dominated the bout, landing 340 punches to Ali's 42, and the fight was stopped after the tenth round due to Ali's inability to continue. This match is often cited as a tragic end to Ali's illustrious career, highlighting the physical toll of boxing and the challenges athletes face in their later years.

You will struggle to find a better example of this. In this particular fight, Holmes landed over 65% of the jabs he threw. Ali landed less than 15% of his. 

Larry Holmes vs. Mike Tyson 

On January 22, 1988, at the Convention Center in Atlantic City, 38-year-old Larry Holmes challenged 21-year-old Mike Tyson for the heavyweight title. Holmes, a former champion, was past his prime, while Tyson was in his peak years. Tyson's relentless aggression overwhelmed Holmes, knocking him down three times in the fourth round before the referee stopped the fight. This bout marked a significant passing of the torch in heavyweight boxing, with Tyson solidifying his dominance in the division.

But just like Ali in his fight with Holmes, Larry really had no business sharing the ring with Tyson that night. 

Julio Cesar Chavez vs. Kostya Tszyu 

At the Alamodome in San Antonio, 38-year-old Julio Cesar Chavez faced 30-year-old Kostya Tszyu for the WBC light welterweight title in July 2000. Chavez, a legendary figure in boxing, was past his prime, while Tszyu was a rising star. Tszyu dominated the fight, knocking Chavez down twice before the bout was stopped in the sixth round. This loss led Chavez to announce his retirement in the ring, marking the end of an era in boxing.

Evander Holyfield vs. John Ruiz 

On the 12th August  in the year 2000, Evander Holyfield was precisely 6 days older than Lennox Lewis was when he had the final fight of his career, against Vitali Klitschko.

Holyfield was fighting at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. He was and he was facing 28-year-old John Ruiz for the WBA heavyweight title. Holyfield, though past his prime, managed to secure a unanimous decision victory over Ruiz, becoming the first four-time heavyweight champion. However, in their two subsequent encounters after Holyfield turned 38, Ruiz defeated him, again highlighting the challenges aging fighters face in maintaining their dominance.

The 38-Year-Old Rule had struck again. Evander (37 years & 297 days old) would go on to have 15 further fights after this night, winning less than half of them. 

Lennox Lewis vs. Vitali Klitschko

Lennox Lewis (aged exactly 37 years & 291 days old) took on a 31-year-old Vitali Klitschko for the WBC heavyweight title (as well as the IBO's strap and The Ring magazine heavyweight title) on 21st June 2003,at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Lewis, a few months shy of 38, struggled against the younger Klitschko, who was a late replacement. The fight was stopped in the sixth round due to a severe cut on Klitschko's face, with Lewis ahead on the scorecards. This bout raised questions about Lewis's future in boxing, as he realised he no longer had the same dominance in the ring.

He never fought again, one of the few all-time-great, Hall-Of-Fame boxing champions who got out of the sport before The 38-Year-Old Rule got to them first. 

Mike Tyson vs. Kevin McBride 

On 11th June 2005, at the MCI Center in Washington, D.C., 38-year-old Mike Tyson faced a journeyman seven years his junior, Kevin McBride. Tyson was long past his prime and had been showing signs of decline for some time. McBride, a massive underdog, defeated Tyson by technical knockout in the sixth round, marking another significant upset and bringing the once-great Iron Mike Tyson's career to an ignominious end.

Antonio Tarver vs. Bernard Hopkins 

In 2006 (at the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City), 37-year-old Antonio Tarver faced 41-year-old Bernard Hopkins for the WBC light heavyweight title. Tarver, having recently defeated Roy Jones Jr. in two out of three fights, was unable to overcome the seasoned Hopkins, who secured a unanimous decision victory. 

The fact that Tarver was unable to overcome an opponent in their 42nd-year speaks to not only the decline in his powers as he approached 38, but the absolutely extraordinary exception to this rule that was Bernard Hopkins.  Hopkins went on to fight for another decade following his win over Tarver, eventually retiring at the age of 51. 

Clinton Woods vs. Tavoris Cloud 

On August 28, 2009, 37-year-old Clinton Woods faced 27-year-old Tavoris Cloud for the IBF light heavyweight title. Woods, in the twilight of his career, was unable to cope with a man ten years his junior and went down to a unanimous decision (116-112 on all three scorecards).  This defeat led to Woods announcing his retirement less than a year before turning 38.

Marco Antonio Barrera vs. Jose Arias 

In 2011, 37-year-old Marco Antonio Barrera faced little-known Jose Arias in a non-title bout. Barrera, a former world champion and legend of the sport, stopped his far younger opponent in the second round of a 10-rounder. Despite the victory, just shy of 38, Barrera announced his retirement from boxing. 

• Barrera was 13,540 days old, just ONE WEEK younger than Miguel Cotto was in his final fight. 

Carl Froch vs. George Groves II

At the end of May 2014, at Wembley Stadium in London, 36-year-old Carl Froch faced 26-year-old George Groves in a highly anticipated rematch for the WBA and IBF super middleweight titles. Froch, having struggled in their controversial first fight. secured a brutal, career-defining 8th round knockout victory over Groves. 

Froch, like Lennox Lewis, is a British-born, Hall-Of-Fame boxing champion who is well-respected for getting out of the sport before The 38-Year-Old Rule got to him. Froch turned 37 a couple of weeks after the Wembley showdown.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Andre Berto

On September 12, 2015, at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, 38-year-old Floyd Mayweather Jr. faced 32-year-old Andre Berto in a welterweight title bout. Mayweather, undefeated and at the peak of his career with a record of 49-and-0, won by unanimous decision, maintaining his perfect record and solidifying his legacy as one of boxing's all-time greats. 

It would be his final bonafide boxing match. He went on to bow out of the sport two years later with a perfect 50-0 record with a victory against boxing debutant, Conor McGregor.

Wladimir Klitschko vs Tyson Fury

The younger of the two Klitschko brothers was a past-his-prime 39 years-old when he took on the approaching-his-prime Tyson Fury in Düsseldorf, Germany. Wladimir had already shown signs of decline in less-than-steller performances prior to this one, and we went down to via a 12-round unanimous decision (115–112, 116–111, 115–112). 

For Tyson Fury, it would go down as one of his (self-proclaimed) greatest wins, despite the fact that his opponent was nearly 40. 

Miguel Cotto vs. Sadam Ali

On December 2, 2017, Miguel Cotto faced Sadam Ali in his final fight at 37. Cotto, a celebrated multi-division champion, struggled against the younger Ali, who showcased impressive speed and technique. The bout highlighted Cotto's decline as he was unable to keep pace with Ali, who was too fresh and too fast tonight for the 37-year old. 

After losing the match, Cotto announced his retirement in the ring, marking the emotional end of a distinguished career. 

• Cotto was 13,548 days old in his last fight, just ONE WEEK older than Marco Antonio Barrera was in his last contest before retiring.

Arthur Abraham vs. Patrick Nielsen

Arthur Abraham fought Patrick Nielsen on April 28, 2018, at the age of 38, in a match symbolising the end of his career.  The fight highlighted his struggles against a younger opponent, despite securing a narrow split-decision victory. This bout illustrated the physical challenges aging athletes face, particularly in this sport of boxing, and it prompted Abraham to retire shortly after.

At 38, he would never lace up the gloves again.

David Haye vs. Tony Bellew II

On May 5, 2018, David Haye faced Tony Bellew in a rematch that would mark the end of his boxing career before turning 38. Haye, a former heavyweight champion and 2-division world champion, had suffered injuries that impacted his performance. Injuries that are less likely to spring up on a younger athlete.

In the bout, Bellew capitalised on Haye’s limitations, leading to a one-sided 5th-round stoppage victory.  Haye, once a dynamic fighter and a naturally concussive puncher, could no longer compete at his previous explosive level. 

No one who was aware of The 38-Year-Old Rule was surprised to see this all-too-familiar end to a once-illustrious career. 

Martin Murray vs. Billy Joe Saunders

Martin Murray faced Billy Joe Saunders at the age of 38 in December 2020, in what became his final fight. Murray, a seasoned veteran, struggled against Saunders.  Murray's retirement after the bout reflected the common theme in boxing of knowing when to step back after a long career.

He had held  the British and Commonwealth middleweight titles between 2010 and 2012 and after 46 fights, at the age of 38, he retired from he sport. 

Zhilei Zhang vs. Jerry Forrest

Two months before turning 38, Zhilei Zhang fought Jerry Forrest (2021). Zhang was forced to cling on in a sometimes desperate display to draw a fight that, at the time, did nothing for his hopes of making inroads as a major heavyweight contender.

Zhang had floored Forrest in each of the first three rounds but ended the 10-round fight exhausted and cut, and forced to settle for a share of the judges' scorecards.  

While the draw allowed Zhang to maintain some credibility, and he has gone on to some success, it raised questions about his future in a division. It was yet another example of things taking on a very different complexion before and after the age of 38. 

Joe Joyce vs. Zhilei Zhang

Joe Joyce then fought Zhilei Zhang in April 2023. The British heavyweight hopeful was approaching 38 years old and, until that night, was undefeated.

Joyce, known for his power and pressure style, entered as a favorite but was surprised by Zhang's performance. Throughout the match, Joyce struggled to impose his will, and Zhang’s tactics exposed vulnerabilities in his approach. The fight ended with a decisive 6th round stoppage win for Zhang, and a it would be a turning point for Joyce. 

His career after this fight would be a very different experience for him compared to the career he had enjoyed before turning 38.

Deontay Wilder vs. Joseph Parker

The day before Christmas Eve 2023, Deontay Wilder was already 38 when he faced Joseph Parker in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.  Wilder, renowned for his knockout power, struggled to find his rhythm from the start and he bore no resemblance to the destructive menace of his earlier career.

Parker, a massive 6/1 underdog, effectively utilized his movement and superior ring generalship to widely outbox Wilder. This fight marked a significant moment in Wilder's career and he went on to an even more crushing loss in his very next contest. 

A high-profile heavyweight with elite-level knockout power, this was an absolutely textbook example of The 38-Year-Old rule. And with odds of 6/1 on the outsider, it was too good a betting opportunity to be ignored.

A high-profile heavyweight with elite-level knockout power, this was an absolutely textbook example of The 38-Year-Old rule. And with odds of 6/1 on the outsider, it was too good a betting opportunity to be ignored. 

Artur Beterbiev vs. Callum Smith

With 19 stoppages from 19 contests, Artur Beterbiev was rapidly reaching a new stratosphere of legendary status as he went into his fight with Callum Smith at the start of 2024 (Quebec City, Canada).

Known for his otherwordly knockout power, Beterbiev entered the fight with high expectations of continuing that success. He was 38 years old at the time of this contest and it would be the final stoppage of his history-making run of consecutive inside-the-distance victories. 

Later in 2024, he would fight Dmitry Bivol (another undefeated world champion) who would be the first man to take him the distance.  His streak had ended at the age of 38.

Francis Ngannou vs. Anthony Joshua

In March 2024, MMA-legend and boxing-novice Francis Ngannou faced-off against Anthony Joshua in a highly anticipated bout. Ngannou had never previously shown any real signs of punch-resistance vulnerability, but now, closing in on 38, he suffered an absolutely brutal knockout defeat.

Once again, it highlighted the stark realities of boxing and the challenges that come with competing into the twilight years as an elite athlete. 

If you have any other examples of (or exceptions to) The 38-Year-Old Rule, let us know on X. 
  

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