Vasiliy Lomachenko to stop George Kambosos Jr.

By Johnny Wright

Published 11th May 2024 17:32

Updated 24th September 2024 00:11

Tonight from across the pond for SharpBetting, Johnny Wright previews the big fight taking place down under in the early hours of Sunday morning. Boxing hardcore favourite Vasiliy Lomachenko takes on George Kambosos Jr for the IBF Lightweight title in Perth, Australia.

Background

Vasiliy Lomachenko, fresh off a loss to Devin Haney that most everybody thought he won and considered a robbery will be fighting George Kambosos in Kambosos's home country of Australia, which is very indicative of another possible robbery should the fight go the distance. Foreign fighters usually get the short end of the deal in fights that go the distance in their opponent's home country or home towns. This is commonly known as "home cooking" in the boxing world.

Lomachenko has to know that he is up against the judges and the referee in Australia and will be considered the villain by the fans there when he fights George Kambosos later tonight. This is the logical thought pattern a fighter in his position would have, and this is something that has certainly NOT gone unnoticed by Lomachenko, although he has not talked too much about it.

This unfairness might serve bettors well, however, if we try to read between the lines of this fight, break it down, and keep in mind Loma's mindset and boxing corruption while doing that.

Loma is NOT going to Australia to fight in Kambosos's home country to lose, and that is for sure.

The conclusion I can come up with, is that if it is at all possible, Loma would prefer to take this fight out of the judges' hands---- and I am personally going to use that in my betting of the fight, combined with some other facts as follows.

In my eyes, even though he is old, by boxing standards, I have not yet seen any decline in Lomachenko and thought his last fight against Devin Haney was a fight he won clearly. He also performed VERY well in the fights leading up to his last fight with Haney in which he performed as well as he ever has.

On the flip side, George Kambosos has lost his last 3 fights although they gave him the win in one of the worst robberies in YEARS. Kambosos was gifted with a victory in his last fight against southpaw Maxi Hughes, who already had 5 losses and 2 draws when they fought, in a very ordinary and unimpressive boxing career.

Maxi Hughes was there to merely be a stepping stone for Kambosos to get himself back into the mix again. He was a cherry-picked fighter who was put in there with the expectation that Kambosos would beat him, but what went wrong?

His southpaw style troubled Kambosos the whole fight, he peppered him with punches, and kept Kambosos out of his rhythm the whole fight----but the problem for Hughes in sealing the deal is that he can not kill a fly with his punch, so he was not likely to score a KO and when it went to the cards, as happens far too often, they robbed him and gave the "A" side fighter Kambosos, the victory.

In addition, many people talk about Kambosos's impressive victory over Teofimo Lopez, but let's consider that Lopez is an on-again-off-again fighter, and he had one of his "off again" bad nights when he fought Kambosos.

To emphasize my point: ever since that victory Lopez has had 4 fights, and 2 of them were controversial decisions as many fans thought he lost to Sandor Martin and most fans thought he lost to Jamaine Ortiz too, so that should put Kambosos' win over Lopez into perspective.

That said, in his last fight Lopez looked terrific as the underdog in totally dominating Josh Taylor, proving he is an on again, off again fighter. This is why I don't put too much emphasis on Kambosos beating Lopez, because if Martin and Ortiz beat him in the eyes of boxing fans, then that gives credence to the point that Kambosos's win over Lopez was more a case of Lopez not being mentally there and having one of his off nights, as he often does, rather than Kambosos being the upper echelon boxer that people still are thinking he is today.

Let me also remind those reading this that additionally, the fight in which Kambosos beat Lopez was over two and a half years ago, and since then Kambosos has lost THREE fights in a row, in reality though, as I mentioned earlier, in one of those obvious losses in the eyes of boxing fans, he was given a "gift" decision over the journeyman Maxi Hughes who almost shut him out that night.

The end result was that Maxi Hughes beat Kambosos widely for 12 rounds, and the judges, in one of the worst public displays of corruption in recent years awarded the decision to Kambosos , despite nobody thinking that Kambosos had won that fight. It was a travesty--- but I mention it again for a reason, so let's keep that fight in mind as we continue looking at this fight with Loma.

The fight

We all know that anything can happen in boxing. We also know that NO fighter goes into another fighter's hometown or country if he does not feel 100% confident he could win, and in the case of Lomachenko... we know he has heart, we know he is always confident, and in this case, we also know that if it is at all possible, Loma will not let the cards reach the judges hands in Australia, because if this fight is a decision there is a better than 50% chance they will give the win to Kambosos , who is a fellow Australian countryman.

In adding all that up I have looked into my crystal ball and reached the following conclusion.

Loma is going to try harder to get a knockout in this fight than he has in most any of his other fights. That being said, let's look at some facts and see what the chances are of that happening.

Most people look at the fact that Kambosos has never been stopped in a fight and believe that must mean he has a good chin and resilience. Now, that might be the case, and maybe he does have a good chin and resilience.

BUT I can make an equally strong case that he has arguably not fought anybody who can punch as hard as Lomachenko either, and Loma might not be a one-punch knockout artist, but he hits harder than anyone that Kambosos has ever faced, and I am excluding Lopez solely because he was having one his is fairly common "off nights". Additionally, Loma throws at high volume and is a very clever, experienced and gifted future Hall Of Fame boxer.

Now, I do admit that Father Time can catch up with anybody, but I have seen no signs that Loma has slowed, and I am figuring he is on a mission this fight, after being robbed in his last fight, so unless Loma ages overnight, I expect to see Loma at his best one more time.

In looking at the boxers themselves, as I mentioned, Kambosos clearly lost to Maxi Hughes in the eyes are virtually everybody, and Hughes was the only southpaw Kambosos has EVER faced in his entire career (excepting his 3rd fight over 10 years ago)---and in that fight, Kambosos clearly struggled with Hughes's southpaw style and was out of his comfort zone and that is a very important thing to consider because Loma is ALSO a southpaw, and will only be the second southpaw that Kambosos has EVER faced, and this fight with Loma is right after Kambosos was clearly troubled badly by the southpaw Hughes in his previous fight.

Let's also realize that Loma is a future Hall Of Famer and a southpaw, while in comparison, Maxi Hughes is just a journeyman with no punch and a southpaw--- which is a huge difference in level of competition.

Kambosos has never faced a fighter who could punch as hard and as often as Loma, with the same speed as Loma, and for those who are thinking Lopez can, remember again that Lopez was having one of his off nights.

Loma is also Kambosos' toughest opponent stylistically in my eyes. Loma is fast, moves around the ring alot, uses his legs well, can hit very hard, is a skilled, experienced ring technician and he can not be hurt by the pillow fists of Kambosos.

In looking at all these facts, here it is in a capsule. Loma is a southpaw, can hit very hard, is very fast, is more experienced than anybody Kambosos has ever faced, and knows in advance that he will likely need a knockout to win---- so I fully expect Loma to go for the knockout more in this fight than in any one he has ever had.

Loma has a big advantage in his pursuit of that knockout too.

His advantage is that he does not have to worry about the punches of Kambosos as Kambosos has a weak punch, so Loma can throw caution to the wind more in this fight and go for the knockout, than he could in another fight in which his opponent might be a very hard puncher, in which case Loma would have to be careful not to get too careless in going for the knockout or he might get knocked out himself, but in THIS fight, he does not have to worry about Kambosos's power.

The only plusses I think Kambosos has in this fight is that the judges, refs and everybody in attendance will be on his side if the fight goes the distance, or he always has the hope that Loma's age catches up to him and he grows old overnight and he can not perform as well as he did in his last fight, in which he should have gotten the nod against Haney.

So in summary, aside from simply just being the much better fighter of the two, Loma also is a stylistic nightmare for Kambosos in my opinion.

Prediction

In my mind, I expect a competitive first 3-4 rounds, and then I expect Loma to gradually take over the fight, and stop Kambosos in the second half of the fight with either a body shot, or with throwing multiple punches with Kambosos unable to answer him.

The Betting

Personally, based on all the above I believe this fight will end with Lomachenko stopping Kambosos-- so the question is when, and how to bet it?

The safest bet, assuming one agrees with this article is "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ" which is paying +240--- (3.40 in decimal odds) which in itself is a great payoff and the safest if you agree that Loma will stop Kambosos in the fight.

If you are feeling like taking a bit more risk for an even better payout: I think it is more likely that this knockout happens in the second half of the fight, as I do expect Kambosos to be competitive early and Loma is often a slow starter too and the fact that Loma is not a one-punch knockout artist and usually gets his stoppages by an accumulation of blows, leads me to believe this fight will more likely end in the second half of the fight.

So if you are feeling like taking a risk with the bet then you could bet "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ between rounds 7-12" which is paying +400 (5.00 in decimal odds), which is a fantastic payoff for something that I personally think is a strong possibility.

Additionally if you want to play it safe and get that +240 payoff on "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ "at any time--- but are hating to lose the +400 payout if the stoppage is in the 2nd half of the fight you can also overlap the two bets.

You can bet "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ at +240 AND also bet "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ between rds 7-12" at +400.

If you bet in that manner, you will be assured of winning as long as Loma stops him at anytime during the fight, but you will win TWICE if Loma should stop him in the second half of the fight, meaning between rds 7-12 so you would get the +240 payout for your "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ" bet AND you would also get the +400 payout for " Loma by KO/TKO/DQ in rds 7-12".

If you DO choose to overlap and you want to have the best of both worlds, you would likely be better off to spend just a little more money on the "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ" at +240 than on the "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ between rds 7-12" at +400, because the odds on that are a bit lower, but that is all up to your personal feelings, and is just a suggestion.

Please also do remember that if a stoppage should happen in the first half of the fight ( between rds 1-6) --- you WILL lose your investment on the "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ bet between rds 7-12, but you'd still collect on your winnings on "Loma by KO/TKO/DQ" at any time, which will be a VERY nice consolation prize if the stoppage should happen in the first half of the fight-----but ALSO remember the upside of that, because if the stoppage happens in between rds 7-12, which is the second half of the fight, you will win BOTH your bets. You will collect on " Loma by KO/TKO/DQ" and you would ALSO collect on "LOMA by KO/TKO/DQ between rds 7-12" .

It is entirely up to you, and is suggested ONLY if you happen to agree with my Crystal Ball!

Those are the best money bets in this fight, as most people are betting Loma by decision, which might very well happen, but if it does go the distance, please remember there is a very good chance the Australian judges will give the fight as a gift to their fellow Australian Goerge Kambosos, even IF Lomachenko truly won the fight in everyone's eyes.

Also keep in mind that in looking at each of their last bouts, Loma got robbed against Haney in the eyes of boxing fans so Loma SHOULD HAVE WON against an elite fighter in Haney---and on the flip side Kambosos was given a GIFT and they robbed his opponent so Kambosos SHOULD HAVE LOST to a journeyman. This is not just my opinion, but this IS the opinion in the eyes of most boxing fans who watched their last fight.

Translation: if boxing was not corrupt, then in the eyes of the public Lomachenko WON his last fight against a top-level fighter in Devin Haney--- and Kambosos LOST his last fight against a journeyman in Maxi Hughes.

Those scales are NOT even CLOSE to being balanced.

Anyway, there you have my thoughts, so Good Luck, bet smartly and remember anything can happen in boxing, but if this ship should sink, know that I am ALWAYS going down with you guys, but if it should win, then lets all get together somewhere and have a few beers!

Keep on rocking, making money, be smart, bet sharp and remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose, my friends!

All the best, Johnny Wright.

(California, USA)