Dutching Calculator
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What exactly is Dutching?
Dutching is a betting technique where a bettor wagers on multiple outcomes in a single event, ensuring that no matter which one wins, the return will be the same across all selections. By distributing the stake proportionally across different selections, the bettor effectively "hedges" their bets, lowering the risk of a complete loss while ensuring a consistent return if any of the selected outcomes succeed.
This strategy is particularly useful when an event has multiple strong contenders and the bettor isn’t confident that just one will emerge victorious. Dutching can be applied to various sports, such as horse racing, football, tennis, and cricket, making it versatile for punters in the UK.
Why Dutching is such an important part of a Sharp Bettor's repertoire
Dutching is a way of making a multi-opinion strategy pay-off as if it was a single-opinion about the outcome of a sporting event or race. It need not be complicated, it is in essence creating your own market by using the prices that are offered by the sportsbooks, and it ensures that your payout is the same, regardless of which selection in your strategy wins.
When Tyson Fury fought Oleksandr Usyk in May 2024 for the undisputed heavyweight titles there were infinite opinions from experts and armchair pundits about how the fight would unfold. No one, it seemed, was certain about how it would go, or if there was any value in the betting markets. The fight was pretty much dead-even in terms of the betting, and there were strong arguments to be made for ALL FIVE outcomes being in contention.
In fight week, it was possible to find odds on the exact nature of the result of the contest. The table here shows the decimal odds available for the fight to end in some sort of controversy on the cards, i.e. a split-decision (SD), majority-decision (MD) for either man, or a draw. "Dutching" these five selections into one single opinion, that the fight would not end in a clear-cut, unanimous winner should the fight go the distance, paid out odds of 2/1 (3.00 in decimal). It meant that as long as the fight went the distance and was close, the bettor would get decent plus-money in return. As it turned out, it was a brilliant way of Dutching to optimise the returns while minimising risk for this particular fight.
How Does Dutching Work?
The central concept behind Dutching is simple: spread your stake across multiple selections so that the return is the same, regardless of which selection wins. This requires calculating how much to place on each selection based on their odds, which ensures that the total stake and potential return remain balanced.
For example, let’s say you’re betting on a football match where you feel that three players have an equal chance of scoring the first goal. Rather than betting on just one player, Dutching allows you to bet on all three, ensuring that if any of them score, you still make the same profit.
Formula for Dutching:
To calculate the stake on each selection, you can use this formula:
- Stake per Selection = (Total Stake / Selection Odds) ÷ (Sum of 1/Odds for all selections)
This ensures that each selection will yield the same profit, no matter which wins.
History of Dutching: Origins and Development
Dutching was reportedly first popularised by American gangster Arthur Flegenheimer, better known as Dutch Schultz, during the Prohibition era in the United States. Schultz applied this system to horse racing in the 1920s and 1930s as a way to reduce risk while maintaining high returns. While the method was initially employed in the illegal gambling world, it quickly found legitimacy as a mathematical strategy within sports betting.
Since then, Dutching has evolved and adapted to modern sports betting markets, especially with the advent of online betting exchanges like Betfair. In the UK, Dutching is particularly popular in horse racing due to the nature of the sport, where multiple runners often have strong chances of winning.
Why is Dutching Valuable?
Dutching provides several key advantages for sports bettors, particularly those looking to reduce risk while maximising their potential for profit. Here are some reasons why Dutching can be highly valuable:
1. Risk Management
One of the most significant benefits of Dutching is the ability to manage risk effectively. By backing multiple selections, the bettor avoids putting all their money on one outcome, which can be especially useful in unpredictable events such as horse races or football matches.
2. Maximising Value in Competitive Fields
In events where the market is evenly split, such as a football match between two closely matched teams or a horse race with several favourites, Dutching allows you to cover multiple outcomes, ensuring a consistent return. This can also help bettors capitalise on events where the odds are similar across various selections.
3. Adaptable to Different Markets
Dutching can be applied across a wide variety of betting markets, including football, horse racing, tennis, and even political betting. It is particularly effective in markets where several outcomes have similar odds, giving bettors a way to cover their bases without significantly increasing their total stake.
When to Use Dutching
While Dutching is a versatile strategy, there are specific scenarios where it is particularly useful:
1. Horse Racing
In horse racing, Dutching is commonly used to spread risk across several runners. For example, if you’re betting on a race where multiple horses have an equal chance of winning, Dutching can allow you to back each of the horses and still receive the same profit, regardless of which horse crosses the finish line first.
Example:
You’re betting on the Cheltenham Festival and believe three horses – Horse A (odds: 4/1), Horse B (odds: 5/1), and Horse C (odds: 6/1) – all have a strong chance of winning. Rather than backing just one horse, Dutching allows you to spread your £100 stake across all three. Using the Dutching formula, you would place:
- £28.57 on Horse A
- £25.00 on Horse B
- £22.73 on Horse C
Regardless of which horse wins, you will receive a consistent profit.
2. Football Betting
Football matches with unpredictable outcomes, such as matches between evenly matched teams or betting markets like First Goalscorer, can be ideal for Dutching. By covering multiple players or teams, you reduce the chance of losing your stake entirely.
Example:
In a match between Liverpool and Manchester City, you might believe that either Mohamed Salah (odds: 5/1), Erling Haaland (odds: 4/1), or Phil Foden (odds: 7/1) will score the first goal. Dutching allows you to bet on all three players, distributing your stake to ensure the same return if any of them scores.
How to Implement Dutching Effectively
Using Dutching effectively requires careful planning and the right tools. Many bettors use online calculators to simplify the Dutching process and ensure accurate stakes are placed on each selection.
Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to implement Dutching effectively:
- Identify Multiple Strong Contenders
Whether in horse racing, football, or another sport, Dutching works best when there are multiple strong contenders. Be selective about which selections you include to ensure that the potential return outweighs the risk.
- Calculate Stakes Using a Dutching Calculator
While the Dutching formula can be calculated manually, using an online Dutching Calculator can simplify the process and help avoid mistakes. Several betting sites, including Betfair, offer integrated Dutching calculators that will automatically adjust the stakes based on the odds.
- Monitor Market Movements
Like any betting strategy, market movements can affect the value of Dutching. Be sure to monitor the odds and make adjustments if necessary. Some markets, such as horse racing, may see significant fluctuations in the run-up to an event, so timing is crucial.
Example of Dutching in Practice
Let’s look at an example of Dutching in practice to see how the strategy plays out.
Scenario:
You’re betting on the Grand National, one of the biggest horse racing events in the UK. You believe that three horses – Tiger Roll (odds: 8/1), Minella Times (odds: 10/1), and Any Second Now (odds: 14/1) – have the best chances of winning. You have £100 to bet and want to spread it across these three horses using Dutching.
Step-by-Step Process:
- Identify the Odds:Tiger Roll: 8/1Minella Times: 10/1Any Second Now: 14/1
- Tiger Roll: 8/1
- Minella Times: 10/1
- Any Second Now: 14/1
- Calculate Total Inverse Odds:1/8 + 1/10 + 1/14 = 0.125 + 0.1 + 0.0714 = 0.2964
- 1/8 + 1/10 + 1/14 = 0.125 + 0.1 + 0.0714 = 0.2964
- Determine Stakes:Stake on Tiger Roll: £100 ÷ 0.2964 ÷ 8 = £33.74Stake on Minella Times: £100 ÷ 0.2964 ÷ 10 = £28.05Stake on Any Second Now: £100 ÷ 0.2964 ÷ 14 = £19.64
- Stake on Tiger Roll: £100 ÷ 0.2964 ÷ 8 = £33.74
- Stake on Minella Times: £100 ÷ 0.2964 ÷ 10 = £28.05
- Stake on Any Second Now: £100 ÷ 0.2964 ÷ 14 = £19.64
By using Dutching, you ensure that no matter which of the three horses wins, you’ll receive the same return, maximising your chances of success while minimising your risk.
When Dutching Might Not Be Ideal
Though Dutching is an effective strategy, it’s not suitable for every betting scenario. For example:
- Heavily Favourited Markets: In markets where one outcome is heavily favoured, Dutching can significantly reduce your potential profit. In such cases, placing a single bet on the favourite might be more profitable.
- Low Odds Markets: Dutching may not be effective if the odds for all selections are very low. Spreading your stake in these cases can result in minimal or even negative returns.
Conclusion
Dutching is a versatile and powerful betting strategy that can help UK bettors spread their risk across multiple outcomes while ensuring a consistent return. With its roots in the gambling world of the early 20th century, Dutching has evolved into a legitimate tool for modern sports bettors, particularly in horse racing and football.
By understanding when to use Dutching and how to calculate stakes effectively, bettors can make the most of this strategy, significantly improving their chances of success.
Other reading
- Betting 101; the basics. Click here.
- What is the Sharp Stakes method? Click here.
- Sharp strategies for all levels. Click here.
- The Road To £8,000. Click here.
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