Value-hunting The Big 5 v 5

By James Walton

Published 12th May 2024 15:03

Updated 24th September 2024 00:12

With the recent cancellation of Beterbiev-Bivol at the top of the bill, there is still plenty to like about the unprecedented 5x5 card on 1st June in Saudi Arabia. Without exception, the card has been welcomed across the boxing landscape. Here, before jetting off to assess the fights first-hand, James Walton picks the best value he has found in a mouthwatering show in Riyadh.

The combined records of the ten boxers share a 93% win rate. Here's the line-up... The Hearn Stable (109-6-3) on the left Vs. The Warren Stable (92-5-2) on the right:

Heavyweight: Deontay Wilder (43-3-1) vs Zhilei Zhang (26-2-1)
Heavyweight: Filip Hrgovic (17-0) vs Daniel Dubois (20-2)
Featherweight: Raymond Ford (15-0-1) vs Nick Ball (19-0-1)
Middleweight: Ammo Williams (16-0) vs Hamzah Sheeraz (19-0)
Light-heavyweight: Craig Richards (18-3-1) vs Willy Hutchinson (17-1)

Introduction

We are back again, for another blockbuster card in Saudi. When any main event on a card is canceled, it knocks the wind out of fight fans sails. Beterbiev V Bivol, was arguably the best matchup we have seen in a long time. Two fighters who were undefeated, seemingly at the peak of their powers with an intriguing clash of styles.

When this fight suffered the cruel blow of a Beterbiev injury, what was the point in carrying on? The point was, since Turki Alalshikh has entered the boxing universe his cards are worthy of three to four shows rolled into one.

Here is no different. Two Heavyweight bouts, which would grace any arena in the world as main events and a pulsating WBA Featherweight championship bout between two undefeated fighters in Nick Ball and Raymond Ford.

With three other twelve round bouts on the card, the depression of losing the undefeated Russian match up eases. But enough of, “thank you to his excellency”.

Wilder vs Zhang: Expect A Big Bang

The Saudi Heavyweight merry-go-round continues Saturday. Whilst Zhang and Wilder may not be top of the tree in terms of quality, you’d be hard pushed to find a more explosive pairing in the division.

The careers of both men are no secret. At 38 and 41, these two gunslingers are surely in the last chance saloon.

They were each conquered in their previous bout, by Joseph Parker. Wilder lost a wide UD, where he was lucky that the judges scored him two of the twelve rounds. He barely threw a punch and it must now be playing on his and fight fans minds how much is left after the three Fury wars. Prior to the Parker fight, he had boxed just one round since October 2021, putting Helenius to sleep in less than three minutes.

Zhang is enjoying a decent run, in terms of quality of opposition. In his last four fights he has faced Hrgovic, Joyce twice and Parker. While he went 2-2, he floored all three. Throughout most of his career he was around the 260lbs mark. From Craig Lewis in 2021 he has been 270lbs+ but for the Joyce rematch and last time he was 287lbs and 291lbs respectively. Zhang’s stamina has never been great. I would be happy to see him weigh in at the mid-270lbs mark again.

Wilder must rediscover how to pull the trigger again. Zhang likes to press the action early in fights and Wilder’s lack of ringcraft could force him to stand and trade. Surely, he would back himself to do that against any Heavyweight.

Both are there to be hit and both enjoy dishing it out.

I see a shootout here and I’m happy to take either man to win in the first six rounds.

Selection

Fight to be over before end of Round 6 @ 5/4 (2.25 in decimal odds)

Hrgovic vs Dubois: Dubois to bring out “El Animal” in Filip

Dubois V Hrgovic also promises fireworks. Hrgovic brings an 82% KO ratio whilst Dubois boasts a 95% KO rate from his wins.

Hrgovic turned pro, on the back of a bronze at the 2016 Olympics. He had ticked every box, before facing his first big test in August 2022 against fellow undefeated Zhilei Zhang on the undercard of Joshua Usyk II.

In a thoroughly entertaining fight, which swung this way and that, Hrgovic was announced the winner via UD. There were a few question marks around Hrgovic’s performance, some had Zhang winning. Hrgovic poured it on down the stretch and except for a few “Golota” like moments from Hrgovic, I believe he did enough to grind out the win.

Since then, he has stopped another fighter with a perfect record in Demsey Mckean and bowled over an overmatched Mark Di Mori in one round.

Daniel Dubois has had a real rollercoaster of a career so far. At just twenty-six, Dubois has crammed plenty in. In 2020 he had Joe Joyce in his sights for the British, Commonwealth and European titles. Somebody’s 0 had to go. In a brutal fight, Dubois succumbed to Joyce’s relentless pressure and an horrific eye injury, saw the young upstart take a knee in the tenth round.

Following that defeat, many questioned how much Dubois wanted it, when it got tough. It wasn’t a typical slow rebuild. Within three fights, he was fighting 22-0 Trevor Bryan for the WBA “World title” (basically an interim title) Dubois halted Bryan in the fourth round.

Next up, Dubois was matched against South African Kevin Lerena. Lerena provided quite the shock, when dropping Dubois three times in the first round. Dubois would finish brave Lerena in the third stanza.

Dubois got his world title shot against Oleksandr Usyk. Despite the controversy over the low blow, Usyk dominated throughout and stopped Dubois in the ninth round.

Again, there were plenty of those who doubted Dubois when the going got tough. He was already having, what many were calling a “crossroads” fight against Jarell Miller.

Dubois went through a series of bad moments, but gritted out a tough tenth round stoppage which pleased many a boxing fan. I am not sure how much, that had to do with Miller getting in range and not being able to throw, or Daniel turning a corner mentally.

Hrgovic may not be the most straightforward with his temperament, but he hits very hard. Usyk aside, he is the best technical boxer Dubois has faced.

I expect “El Animal” to win by stoppage around the midway point.

Selection

Hrgovic to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ evens (2.00 in decimal odds)

Richards vs Hutchinson: “Spider” Richards to snare Hutchinson

The closest fight from a betting standpoint, on June 1st in Riyadh is Richards V Hutchinson.

Craig Richards’ CV of opponents for a man who is yet to win a world title is outstanding. Prior to his comeback fight against Boris Crighton, (Richards coming back after a 21-month absence) in his eight fights previous, Richards had faced fighters with a record totaling 99-4-2. Four of the eight were undefeated.

There is a slight concern whether he can get over the line. That may seem a touch harsh, looking at his losses except for Buglioni, Bivol is on many lb-4-lb lists and Buatsi is fringe world class.

His best win is Shakan Peters. Peters, undefeated at the time, presented a tough test at 6ft 6in. Richards dominated from the outset, dropping Peters in four and stopping him in nine. Peters has only suffered one other defeat, a points loss to Dan Azeez.

Willy Hutchinson was billed as the next big thing out of Scotland. He had looked extremely strong at the weight and was walking through many of his opponents whilst showing some defensive flaws.

His first real test came in the shape of Lennox Clarke, for the British & Commonwealth titles at super middleweight. Hutchinson had some early success, but Clarke began to grind him down and stopped him in the fifth.

The rebuild has been slow and steady for Hutchinson and he is now once again going to be tested. There is no doubt he packs decent power but has serious defensive flaws and to be stopped against not a big puncher in Clarke, would have to be a concern.

Hutchinson can punch, but Richards should have the wherewithal to see Hutchinson’s crude straight right. Inactivity and age (34) could be a slight concern for Richards, although he has very few miles on the clock.

Very rarely would I look to back odds on, but for a heads up I expected Richards to be around 1/5 or 1/6 mark for this fight (1.20 to 1.17 in decimal odds). Some UK books initially opened at 4/5 (1.80) for the bout, and there is still some 8/11 (1.73) around at time of writing.

I think that is miles from where it should be.

Richards to beat Hutchinson would be my play here.