Test how accurately you know your own knowledge

By The SharpBetting Team

Published 2nd November 2024 11:58

Updated 20th November 2024 19:58

Self-assessment accuracy test: how much do you know about what you know?

This game measures the player's "calibration" of their predictions. Essentially, how well a person knows what they know (or don’t know) and how accurately they can quantify their confidence in that knowledge.

Confidence applied correctly will supersede a genius

It has been stated that "Confidence applied correctly will supersede a genius" and in sports-betting, it’s more valuable for someone to have confidence in what they know than to simply possess extensive knowledge.

How it works

Try the test here and see how much you know about your own knowledge. Just 5 Questions will generate a score but it will not be very accurate. All 50 Questions should be attempted for the best accuracy to see how good a judge you are.

Answer each question to the best of your knowledge using the three options, and rate your confidence in the answer according to the four levels (Minimum - Low - High - Maximum). It doesn't matter if you are right or wrong, it matters that you know when you are right or wrong.

The best judges will get a Brier Score under 0.10...

Brier Test

Select the number of questions:

The Brier Score

The Brier Score is a metric used to evaluate how accurately people or systems assess probabilities, particularly in forecasting. It measures the "calibration" of predictions. Eessentially, how well a person knows what they know (or don’t know) and how they quantify their confidence in that knowledge. A Brier Score is calculated by comparing predicted probabilities to actual outcomes, offering a numerical value that represents prediction accuracy. Lower scores indicate better calibration and confidence accuracy, while higher scores suggest overconfidence or misjudgment in one’s knowledge.

In practical use, a person who consistently predicts the likelihood of events (such as predicting a 70% chance of rain when it actually rains 70% of the time) would have a lower, favorable Brier Score, demonstrating a good understanding of their knowledge boundaries. Conversely, if someone regularly overestimates or underestimates outcomes, their Brier Score would be higher, indicating they may not accurately gauge what they know.

Organisations and individuals use the Brier Test to improve decision-making by highlighting areas of overconfidence or uncertainty, leading to better self-assessment skills and more grounded confidence in one's knowledge. Over time, refining one's Brier Score helps cultivate a balanced approach to decision-making, especially in fields requiring careful risk management and forecasting.

Applications in sports-betting

In sports-betting, the phrase "feel price" is frequently used.

Having a good "feel" or "feel pricing" in sports-betting refers to setting odds or making bets based on intuition, experience, or gut-feeling rather than on detailed statistical analysis or algorithms. Bettors or oddsmakers who use feel pricing rely on their understanding of the sport, familiarity with teams and players, or a sense of the betting market’s dynamics to predict outcomes and determine odds.

This approach contrasts with data-driven methods that rely on advanced analytics, machine learning, or complex models. Feel pricing can be influenced by subjective factors, like perceived momentum, player psychology, paddock watching, or insider knowledge. While it can yield success, some people would say it is riskier, as it lacks the objective rigor of statistical models and can be swayed by biases.

However, some of the most successful sports-bettors have often had excellent "feel pricing" skills, and they would likely score very well on this test.

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