Boxing fans went quarter of a century without an undisputed heavyweight championship fight and now they seem to come around like London buses.  On Saturday, boxing history will be made as Wembley Stadium hosts the rematch between Oleksandr Usyk and Daniel Dubois for all four of the “traditional” straps:  Usyk holds the WBA, WBC and WBO. Dubois brings his IBF belt to the table. It’s the first time such a contest has been held in the UK.

 The 38-Year-Old Rule:  an exception? 

Oleksandr Usyk will be fighting as a 38-year-old for the first time in his career. Tennis fans will know what happened to fellow-GOAT, Novak Djokovic, last week when he crashed out of Wimbledon against a man more than a decade younger than him.  Djokovic turned 38 in May. 

Novak Djokovic (38): I don't think it's bad fortune; it's just age. This year has been a real struggle for me physically.

And in the world of boxing, there's an almost unwritten rule that comes into play when a fighter reaches the age of 38: an asterisk should accompany any fight they participate in. It is especially pertinent when we are considering betting on the fights that feature a boxer who is threatening to break the rule. Every rule has an exception, and we believe Usyk is one...  The 38-Year-Old-Rule.  

We need to talk about southpaws 

• About 10% of the population is left-handed. In some sports, there are advantages that can be exploited from this trait alone. Boxing is one of them and when an orthodox boxer comes up against a southpaw, it has to be considered as one of the key data-points when assessing the matchup. Oleksandr Usyk is a southpaw all-time great... [READ MORE]

The definition of "rejuvenation" 

The most common narrative for the build-up to this fight is the rebirth of Daniel Dubois.  Much like his dismantling of Anthony Joshua last summer (an outcome that was picked here by Johnny Wright), one has to consider what these stories of rejuvenation are based on.  In AJ’s case before coming unstuck against DD, we were told to expect a “new and improved” version of Joshua after putting together a string of wins against second-tier opposition (Franklin, Helenius, Wallin, Ngannou). Rather than AJ 2.0, what we got was nearer to AJ 0.0 - he was exposed in a very one-sided contest against an impressive Dubois.

While Dubois was indeed impressive that September night, it was a very lacklustre version of Joshua in the other corner.  Before that he had a come-from-behind win against the most impressive name on his resume to date, Filip Hrgović.  While a good win on paper, it was an extraordinary performance by both men.   Dubois showed almost no head movement and shipped far too many right-hands from Hrgović.  It seemed that Hrgović had left something in training, because he seemed to gas, and with several cuts, Dubois got the stoppage.  In the early stages of that fight, it looked like Dubois was heading to another defeat, but Hrgović gas tank was empty by the second half of the fight. Dubois was guilty of some liberal use of the head that went largely unnoticed by the referee.

Why was his defence so bad against a fighter like Hrgović who rarely brings any surprises to the way he goes about his work?

The fight was stopped due to cuts in the 8th round and it was hailed as the biggest win of his career, correctly, but the performance left a lot of unanswered questions.  Mainly, why was his defence so bad against a fighter like Hrgović who rarely brings any surprises to the way he goes about his work? It was a question that would not be answered in his next fight, the demolition of Joshua.  

Before the Hrgović win, Dubois outlasted the 333-lbs Jarrell Miller, a good win, but one that has almost no bearing on his chances against Usyk.  

When we look at the first fight between Usyk and Dubois in August 2023, Dubois was outclassed throughout the contest.  He landed a low-blow in the 5th round and Usyk was given several minutes to recover.  On the resumption, Dubois would land several more low blows, borderline at best before the end of the round.  This has also featured heavily in the build-up to the rematch:  was Usyk dropped by a legit body-shot? Is this how Dubois wins the fight this time around? 

It appears most neutral observers, outside of the Dubois promotion, agree that it was a low-blow, nothing to see here, move on.  Even Dubois himself, in the final few weeks before the fight, seems to have grown bored of this narrative.  

It appears most neutral observers, outside of the Dubois promotion, agree that it was a low-blow, nothing to see here, move on.

Body-shots are notoriously hard to recover from. The way Usyk regained composure did not suggest it was a legitimate body-shot that had flawed him.  Further, if the referee had not ruled it an illegal shot, it is entirely possible Usyk would have been ready to continue.  It’s a moot point.  A few rounds later, Usyk was teeing off on Dubois and the fight was stopped 

In the 9th round after a Usyk jab that was delivered like a power-punch, Dubois was on all-fours. He stayed there as the referee counted ten.  In the immediate aftermath of the fight, Usyk consoled Dubois with words of encouragement above and beyond what was required in the name of good sportsmanship. 

Dubois looked at his conqueror, in that moment, completely aware that he had been beaten fair-and-square by the better man.

Two years later, Dubois is on the “crest-of-a-wave” due to his recent wins, and while he may be keen on shouting “and the new!” During fight week, it is unlikely that will come to fruition.  There is not enough evidence to suggest he can win this fight.  Dubois, according to our sources, was a 5/1 underdog with some books when the fight was announced.  He is now generally around 5/2, which is a significant movement in the betting.  Usyk is now available to back at 4/11.  Odds-on shots are not for everything but that has to be the value play here.  If Dubois lands the upset win somehow, it will feel a lot more like a 5/1 (17%) upset than a 5/2 (29%) one.  

On Thursday of fight-week, Ben Keith was taking a view at StarSports;  they were offering a very generous 2/5 (1.4 decimal odds) about Usyk.  

When The SharpBetting Line was published when the fight was announced, there was a 47% chance that Usyk would win within 11 rounds

The big question for those who like Usyk at these odds is if he can get it done inside the distance or it will go the full 12.  When The SharpBetting Line  was published when the fight was announced, there was a 47% chance that Usyk would win within 11 rounds.  

With the betting public supporting Dubois, this has now moved out to odds-against for any Usyk stoppage.  We have already highlighted the Usyk Decision decimal odds of 3.10 that were around in April.

Prediction

As the fight has got closer, we like a late stoppage for Usyk.  

Click HERE for the latest Round Betting odds.

In the round betting, we would take Usky to win in Round 10 at 16/1 and Round 11 at 18/1.  StarSports are offering a decent offer on this fight:  “Get 50% of your stake back as a free bet if your fighter wins in the round immediately following your selection.”  We would not put anyone off from taking Usyk to win in any of the rounds in the second half of the fight, but we are leaning to the final third of the contest as Dubois begins to show signs of fatigue.  If ever there is a blueprint for how this fight is likely to unfold, it is the first fight between these two.  

Get 50% of your stake back as a Free Bet!

Click HERE for more information about this offer on the Usyk-Dubois fight. 

Get 50% of your stake back as a free bet if your fighter wins in the round immediately following your selection.

The Scorecard

Watching the fight?  Try our interactive scorecard that allows you to give your opinion and a backup total when the rounds are hard to score. 

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