Liam Paro will take on Richardson Hitchins on Saturday at Coliseo Roberto Clemente, San Juan (Puerto Rico) for the IBF light-welterweight championship of the world.

The breakdown

This fight has the potential to be a barn-burner.

On one side, we have Hitchins who is a highly touted prospect. He is likely a tad faster and maybe a tad more fundamentally sound than Paro might be, but he has been handled very cautiously with gradual steps up in competition, and in his last fight he was given a decision that he lost in the eyes of most everybody (against Gustavo Daniel Lemos).

That said, the opponent Hitchins "wrongfully" won against was a decent enough opponent who had never lost, but who had also never fought at a top level before either, so it was a match-up of two fighters looking to see who would be free to make their next step up in their career. The decision was given to Hitchins, which was not what the eyes of most other people saw except for the judges. However, in looking over the possible results here, please do remember that in his very next fight after most thought he beat Hitchins, Lemos was totally destroyed, knocked down 3 times and KOed by Keyshawn Davis.

So considering that after the fight with Hitchins which most people felt he should have gotten the decision in, he ended up losing by getting so totally dominated, it does bring up the inevitable questions about " how good Lemos really was".  His unbeaten record was not filled with Superstars for sure, so the fact that Hitchins really should have lost to Lemos does not bode well for Hitchins in assessing what we know about these two fighters.

Hitchins has shown holes in his game that I think can be exploited by a talented counterpuncher like Paro.

Hitchins did not stink up the joint, but he certainly lost in the eyes of most everybody, and he lost to a seemingly quite average fighter too. No fighter should be judged after one bad fight so that is a bright side for Hitchins. But Hitchins did show holes in his game in that fight that I think can be exploited by a talented counterpuncher like Paro.

Hitchins is clearly a talented fighter and is still young, but that last fight did Hitchins no favors, and now he will be stepping up.

In regards to Paro: he has beaten a higher level of opposition than Hitchins, and has proven himself to have a great chin as he traded with Subriel Matias in his last fight and totally dominated him on his way to winning the IBF title. As a reminder Matias was a top fighter, was 20-1 at that time, and all 20 of his wins were by KO and Paro had no issues with his power.

Paro also beat Montana Love, so although Hitchins is highly touted and protected, and a talented young fighter, he is not yet on the level of Matias or Love and is also does not pack much power.

Paro has the ability to bang with the best of them and also has the ability to box so he has a lot of tools in his arsenal.

So, in considering the punch resistance that Paro showed against Matias, I would personally rule out Hitchins winning by KO/TKO as a potential method of victory. Paro has the ability to bang with the best of them, and also has the ability to box, so he has a lot of tools in his arsenal, depending on what direction this fight takes.

I personally see this as being a very entertaining fight for the first 3-4 rounds with Paro gradually and methodically breaking Hitchins down as the fight progresses.I don't think Hitchins is ready for a fighter on Paro's level yet.

Paro always stays in top condition, and has an unbeaten record including two impressive wins as an underdog against Subriel Matias and Montana Love. Paro is a highly skilled counterpunching southpaw and Hitchins has proven he can handle southpaws in the past, with his impressive victories over Jose Zepeda and John Bauza---however, the one time that Hitchins has been knocked down in his career was by a southpaw who was merely a journeyman.

That fight was about six years ago as his impressive victories over southpaws have been quite recent. It is something to consider as Hitchins has never tasted the canvas other than that one time against a southpaw. 

Betting suggestions

Paro's counter-punching will bother Hitchins quite a bit. Paro also has great conditioning, will not tire, gets stronger as the fights go on, and all this will be happening in Hitchin's toughest fight. When I combine all that with the fact that I don't believe Paro has to worry about Hitchin's punching power when going on the attack

I see it as an entertaining fight with Paro breaking Hitchins down as the fight progresses. I don't think Hitchins is ready for a fighter on Paro's level yet, and my quick-pick in this fight is: PARO to beat HITCHINS.

Paro's counter-punching can bother Hitchins quite a bit and it is my belief that Paro is going to KO/TKO Hitchins. In regards to the betting though, that is everyone's personal choice, but the two best bets from my view are:

  1. Paro to win (currently paying -125; 1.80 in decimal odds) and
  2. Paro to win by KO/TKO/DQ (currently paying +500; 6.00 in decimal odds)

Use the Odds Converter to switch between different odds formats here.

Betting strategy

My personal suggested bet on this fight, for those who agree with my assessment will be:

  • 80% of total stake on Paro to win ( -125) and
  • 20% of total stake on Paro to win by KO/TKO/DQ ( +500)

As always, it is up to the individual as far as what and how they want to bet, but those are two suggestions I would go for to try to maximize profit in this entertaining matchup. It is not the highest level of confidence coming with this prediction... it's one of those WrightOrWrong types of betting opportunities.

Johnny Wright, USA

  

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