August 2024 - David's Daily football previews

This article provides a recap for the month of August 2024.  All of these betting suggestions were published in David's Daily football previews.

Check out the performance of David's full football betting history here.  

AUGUST HIGHLIGHTS

1. Preston vs. Luton (August 24, 2024)

Preston hosted Luton in a Championship match where Preston’s strong home form and Luton’s defensive vulnerabilities made them the favored pick. Preston's ability to score frequently at home, combined with Luton’s poor defensive record, supported the bet on a Preston win. The match ended in Preston’s favor with a goal from Will Keane in the 39th minute, securing a 1-0 victory.

• Bet: 1X2: Preston 
• Odds: 5.00 
• Result: Win

2. Olancho vs. Motagua (August 25, 2024)

Olancho and Motagua faced off in a match where a low-scoring outcome was expected due to both teams' strong defensive records and limited attacking success. Olancho had kept clean sheets in several recent home games, while Motagua struggled to score in away matches. The game ended 0-0, consistent with the under 1.5 goals prediction.

• Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
• Odds: 2.90
• Result: Win

3. Harju JK Laagri vs. Levadia U21 (August 24, 2024)

Harju JK Laagri played against Levadia U21 in a match where Harju was expected to dominate due to Levadia U21's defensive weaknesses. Harju's strong attack and home advantage were key factors, leading to a decisive 4-0 victory. Goals were scored by Karl Koppel, Joonas Tamm, Sergei Lepmets, and a late own goal by Levadia's defense, validating the prediction of a comprehensive win for Harju.

• Bet: Home Win 4-0 
• Odds: 9.00 
• Result: Win

4. Levante vs. Cadiz CF (August 24, 2024)

Levante and Cadiz CF's encounter in La Liga 2 was expected to end in a draw due to the defensive strengths of both teams and their cautious playing styles. Levante’s mixed home performances and Cadiz's resilience in away games suggested a likely stalemate. The match concluded as a 1-1 draw, with Brugue scoring for Levante and Ruben Alcaraz converting a penalty for Cadiz, confirming the bet’s prediction.

• Bet: 1X2: Draw 
• Odds: 3.30
• Result: Win

5. New York City II vs. Chicago Fire II (August 24, 2024)

New York City II faced Chicago Fire II in a game anticipated to have many goals due to both teams' recent high-scoring matches. With consistent trends of four or more goals in their games, the expectation for a high goal tally was met with a 4-1 victory for New York City II. Goals were scored by Jonathan Jimenez, two from Julian Carranza, and an own goal by Chicago Fire II.

• Bet: Over 3.5 Goals 
• Odds: 1.83
• Result: Win

6. Enugu Rangers vs. Zilimadjou (August 23, 2024)

In the CAF Champions League clash between Enugu Rangers and Zilimadjou, a bet was placed on both teams to score, despite the dominance of Enugu Rangers. The match saw both sides find the net, with Eze Emmanuel scoring for Enugu Rangers and Amir Jemal for Zilimadjou, making the bet on both teams scoring a winner.

• Bet: BTTS Yes 
• Odds: 4.33 
• Result: Win

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ALL PREVIEWS

2024-08-31 1500:  Leicester vs Aston Villa

Aston Villa are too short for this trip; Leicester will go for it at home

Introduction: Leicester City and Aston Villa will face off at the King Power Stadium this Saturday, both eager to recover from recent Premier League defeats. The two teams last met in April 2023, with Aston Villa emerging victorious with a 2-1 away win.

Leicester: Following a draw with Tottenham and a loss to Fulham, Leicester City secured their first win of the season in the League Cup by defeating Tranmere Rovers 4-0. This victory likely boosted their confidence ahead of their clash with Aston Villa. Leicester has some injury concerns, with Jakub Stolarczyk and Patson Daka expected to miss the match.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa struggled in their opening home game of the season, losing to Arsenal. Despite this, they could achieve back-to-back away wins this weekend, following their recent 2-1 victory over West Ham. Villa, however, will be without key players Boubacar Kamara and Tyrone Mings due to knee injuries, and Matty Cash, who is sidelined with a thigh strain.

Summary: Big picture, Villa has won only seven of their last 28 Premier League games against Leicester, but they have managed to secure seven points from their last three visits to the King Power Stadium, a notable improvement from their earlier performances. Leicester boasts a strong home record, having won 13 of their last 18 home matches, scoring three or more goals in nine of those. Aston Villa, conversely, has struggled recently, losing five of their last seven matches and conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game. Additionally, Villa has failed to score in four of their last six matches, highlighting their offensive challenges. Leicester's strong home form and Villa's defensive issues suggest that Leicester is well-positioned and we will not be shocked to see them secure a win at 7/2 odds. Both teams have scored in four of the last five meetings between these clubs, and Leicester has found the net in all three of their matches across league and cup competitions this season.

Bet #50:   1X2 Leicester

Odds Available:  4.50

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-30 1945:  Italy Serie A

Inter are a no-bet

The match between Inter Milan and Atalanta on August 30, 2024, is expected to be closely contested, but there is a strong argument for only one side scoring. Here’s why:

Inter Milan has been defensively solid under manager Simone Inzaghi, who led them to a Scudetto last season. Despite a somewhat shaky start to the current season, Inter managed to secure a clean sheet in their 2-0 win over Lecce last weekend. Key players like Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Nicolo Barella in midfield and a sturdy defense featuring Alessandro Bastoni and Benjamin Pavard contribute to their defensive strength. Lautaro Martínez, one of their star forwards, might miss the game due to injury, which could impact their attacking potency​.

Atalanta, coached by Gian Piero Gasperini, is dealing with several absences that could affect their ability to score. With players like Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini sidelined due to injuries and Teun Koopmeiners potentially leaving for Juventus, their attacking options are limited. Additionally, the recent transfer of their main goalkeeper, Juan Musso, to Atletico Madrid means that Atalanta may struggle defensively. Although Atalanta has been known for its aggressive attacking style, these changes could see them adopting a more conservative approach.

Summary:

Inter's defense remains strong, particularly at home, and they are likely to maintain a disciplined formation that restricts Atalanta's chances. Meanwhile, Atalanta's unsettled lineup and potential focus on restructuring their team could limit their scoring opportunities. Given these factors, the likelihood of only one side scoring is higher than the odds suggest.

Bet #49 - BTTS No

Odds Available:  2.20

Result:  Win

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2024-08-29 2030:  Spain La Liga

Real Madrid are tough to oppose

The upcoming match between Las Palmas and Real Madrid is expected to be a low-scoring affair. Here are the key factors contributing to this prediction:

Las Palmas is managed by Luis Carrión and has shown a defensive playstyle in recent games. Key players for Las Palmas include Sandro Ramírez and Adnan Januzaj. Sandro is currently their top scorer, though the team has struggled to find the back of the net consistently, being scoreless in 9 of their last 16 matches. They have also seen fewer than 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 home games​.

Real Madrid, under the experienced management of Carlo Ancelotti, is known for a solid defensive strategy, especially in away games. Key players like Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga, and veteran Luka Modrić add depth and control to the midfield. The team has a strong defensive record, not conceding in 11 of their last 20 matches and having under 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 13 away games​().

Weather conditions for the match at Estadio de Gran Canaria are expected to be mild, which may not heavily impact the game but can favor controlled, disciplined play from both sides.

Statistical insights suggest a low goal count due to both teams' defensive setups. Las Palmas is likely to continue their trend of low-scoring games at home, and Real Madrid's disciplined approach under Ancelotti further supports the expectation of a tight match with limited scoring opportunities.

Considering these elements, the prediction for fewer than three goals is well-founded. Las Palmas will likely prioritize defense, while Real Madrid's tactical discipline will aim to control the game, making a high-scoring match unlikely.

Bet #48 - Under 2.5 Goals

Odds Available:  2.50

Result:  Win

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2024-08-28 1745:  Qarabag vs Dinamo Zagreb

Wednesday's Champions League

Qarabag FK face Dinamo Zagreb in the second leg of their Champions League playoff clash in Baku. Qarabag, who have won the Azerbaijani title three years running, must overcome a 3-0 deficit from the first leg in Croatia. It was an underwhelming display by them in that first leg and they were unable to do anything with their 57% possession, while Dinamo’s Marko Pjaca and Sandro Kulenovic (two goals) sealed the win. Zagreb have been dominant both domestically and in Europe, winning their last five games, including a recent 2-1 win over HNK Gorica.

Qarabag have struggled domestically, suffering back-to-back defeats, including a recent loss to Turan Tovuz. Meanwhile, Dinamo, led by striker Bruno Petkovic, continue their strong form after winning seven consecutive Croatian titles. Zagreb's defensive solidity and offensive firepower, highlighted by their recent performances, put them in a commanding position, though Qarabag will aim for a comeback.

Statistically, Dinamo have been impressive, winning 17 of their last 19 matches, scoring 3 or more goals in 6 of their last 8, and keeping clean sheets in 11 of those 19 games. With a significant first-leg cushion, Zagreb appear poised to secure progression, though Qarabag will fight to reverse their recent fortunes.

Bet #45 - 1X2: Away

Odds Available:  3.40

Result:  Win

Bet #46 - BTTS No

Odds Available:  2.50

Result:  Win

Bet #47 - Away Win 1-0

Odds Available:  11.00

Result:  Loss

28 August, 18:55:  Watching this game now and at 50 minutes into the game we are looking rosy. This is what happens so often... we make the right pick and then we have an hour of agony while we wait for the final whistle!  Let's see what happens now.

28 August, 18:59:  Turns out it wasn't an hour of agony!  Second goal has just gone in 3 minutes after I posted that screenshot. Classic. 

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2024-08-27 2000:  Salzburg vs Dynamo Kyiv

Tuesday's Champions League

Red Bull Salzburg host Dynamo Kyiv in the second leg of their Champions League tie with a 2-0 lead from the first leg. Salzburg's efficient performance last time out, with goals from Nene Dorgeles and Maurits Kjaergaard, has given them control of the tie. Dynamo have already beaten Partizan Belgrade and Rangers this season and, with a week of preparation, will be highly motivated to push for victory in this crucial match.

Salzburg’s performance in the first leg was marked by defensive discipline and efficient finishing. Despite Kyiv’s pressure, Salzburg maintained control and took their chances. Heading into the second leg, they have a firm grip on the tie and will likely look to dominate possession and dictate the pace of the game, aiming to avoid any slip-ups that could give Kyiv hope.

On the other hand, Dynamo Kyiv face a daunting challenge. Needing to score three goals to overturn the deficit, they will have to take a more aggressive approach. Kyiv's journey thus far has been impressive, having already eliminated Partizan Belgrade and Glasgow Rangers.

However, their first-leg defeat was their first of the season and the first time they’ve failed to score. They’ve had a week to regroup, and despite the feeling they will be outgunned on Tuesday evening, as the odds suggest, they will be motivated to at least win in the 90 minutes, even if overturning the two-goal deficit seems unlikely.

With Salzburg’s strong position and Dynamo Kyiv's desperation to respond, this second leg promises to be an intriguing contest and we are taking the underdogs in this one.

Bet #44 - 1X2: Away

Odds Available:  5.50

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-26 1500:  Southend might not have all the advantages versus Dag & Red

Bet #43 - BTTS Yes

Dagenham & Redbridge are set to play Southend United at Roots Hall, marking their third match in six days. Both teams have had similar starts to the 2023/24 campaign, with five points from their first four games. Southend, led by Kevin Maher since 2021, suffered a 2-0 loss to Barnet earlier in the week but have strong players like Gus Scott-Morriss, who already has three goals this season. Winger Jack Bridge also remains a key threat, while the team recently strengthened their midfield with the signing of George Moncur, who brings over 300 EFL appearances and was part of Leyton Orient’s promotion-winning squad last season.

Maher, a former Dagenham player himself, has secured 59 wins in 139 matches as Southend’s head coach. His leadership and history with the club, where he led Southend to two consecutive promotions as a player, make him a significant figure in this fixture. Southend have historically performed well at Roots Hall and will look to bounce back from their recent defeat.

The Daggers come into this match with a similar record, having won 2-1 at home against Wealdstone and earning a point away at Rochdale. However, they were handed their first defeat of the season by Woking, narrowly losing 1-0. On Friday, they managed a 1-1 draw against FC Halifax, giving them an extra day of rest before the Southend clash. Dagenham have also seen significant transfer activity over the summer, with several new signings and departures. Top scorer Inih Effiong, who left for Braintree Town, has left a gap in the attack, but new arrivals like strikers Josh Umerah, Dylan Stephenson, and teenage forward Harrison Day are expected to fill the void. Junior Morias and Luca Woodhouse have also been brought in on loan to bolster the squad.

Historically, Southend have been a challenging opponent for the Daggers. In 2022, Dagenham secured a memorable 3-0 victory at Roots Hall, with Matt Robinson and Junior Morias scoring to end Southend’s 13-match unbeaten streak. However, last season Southend managed a 2-0 win in the first encounter and a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, echoing a similar pattern from the previous year.

Southend will aim to do the double over Dagenham for the first time since the 2012/13 season, when they won both fixtures, including a decisive 3-0 win on Boxing Day. Despite Southend's recent form, Gary O’Neil's Dagenham side are expected to pose a stiff challenge, particularly given their transfer dealings and Maher’s history with the Daggers.

This clash at Roots Hall is crucial for both teams as they seek to build momentum in the National League. Dagenham, now entering their ninth consecutive season in the fifth tier, will be eager to push for a return to the EFL, while Southend will look to reclaim their strong home form and recover from a disappointing week. With both sides evenly matched so far, it promises to be a hard-fought encounter.

We expect goals from both sides, in a close match that will be no surprise to see end up as a 1-1 stalemate.  However, the 5/1 about that Correct Score offers no incentive, so we are taking the BTTS Yes as anything around even-money or better.

Odds Available:  2.05

Result:  Win

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2024-08-26 1500:  Chester vs Scarborough: No cakewalk in National League North clash; stalemate in the offing

Bet #42 - BTTS No

OK - hands up... who else got that Wolves-Chelsea game completely wrong?!  Let's move on to the next opportunity. We have a close match on bank-holiday Monday afternoon and it means there is value to exploit. Here's some key stats that make us confident we are on the right side of this market:

Chester have drawn 9 of their last 20 matches. They drew 2-2 with Alfreton last Saturday. Scarborough have drawn 7 of their last 19 matches. Sure, it's not the most exciting thing you'll read today and it feels like a match to be nervous about. But we think stalemate beckons after what will probably be a low-scoring affair.

As such, take the old faithful BTTS No and save your popcorn for another time.

Odds Available:  1.91

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-25 1400:  Wolves vs Chelsea

Visitors price not very exciting, take the 7/2 for Wolves to take home the bacon

Bet #40 - 1X2: Wolves

Chelsea’s transfer activity has increased pressure for immediate success, but the team may remain disjointed for some time. They were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Manchester City in their opening match, followed by a lackluster performance against Swiss side Servette, allowing 22 shots in their Conference League tie.

Chelsea now face Wolves at Molineux, where they haven't won since Frank Lampard's tenure. Wolves lost 2-0 to Arsenal in their opener but are expected to improve. Gary O’Neil’s team often punches above its weight, and Wolves could frustrate a Chelsea side lacking cohesion and avoid defeat.

Their ability to frustrate opponents with a disciplined defensive structure is a key reason why they might stifle Chelsea's attack. Wolves’ midfielders, Joao Gomes could be integral, are capable of controlling the game's tempo, which could limit Chelsea's opportunities.

Odds Available:  4.50

Result:  Loss

Bet #41 - Home Win 1-0

Wolves have won all of the last three fixtures between the two sides. This looks like a perfect scenario for them to build on the head-to-head; they have found the net in 17 of their last 20 home matches. Something Chelsea has failed to do in 2 of their last 5 away matches. 

Along with the 1X2 bet we are taking the 14/1 odds for Wolves to get this done by one goal to nil. 

Odds Available:  15.00

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-25 0200:  Nasinu vs Tailevu Naitasiri

Finally some Fiji football for fans of finding value... but don't expect fireworks

Bet #39 - BTTS No

There's not much between Nasinu and Tailevu Naitasiri in Fiji's Premier League. The hosts are in ninth place with 12 points, compared to their opponents who are in tenth place on 9 points.

• Nasinu have been scoreless in 7 of their last 17 home matches
• Tailevu Naitasiri have been scoreless in 3 of their last 5 away matches

Anything looks possible here in terms of who holds the aces. The draw should be considered if you are looking at the Match Winner but it is a bit of a coin-toss. With goals being hard to come by in the build-up to this one, this could end up with clean-sheets at both ends. It's certainly not one to go crazy about but we are taking the BTTS No at odds-against.

Odds Available:  2.40

Result:  Win

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2024-08-25 0015:  Olancho vs Motagua

Neither team holds solid claims for domination; goal-fest unlikely!

Bet #38 - Under 1.5 Goals

The match between Olancho and Motagua is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair, with strong evidence suggesting that only one goal may be scored, if any. Both teams have shown a clear pattern of defensive play and difficulty in finding the net. Olancho have managed only one win in their last five matches, while Motagua's performances are not much better, struggling to score consistently.

In fact, one of the most significant stats is that Olancho have kept a clean sheet in four of their last six home matches. Motagua, on the other hand, have been unable to score in three of their last six away games. This defensive discipline on both sides points towards a cagey match with limited chances.

Additionally, Olancho's home form has been solid in terms of defense, while Motagua has failed to score in many recent away games. All these elements contribute to the likelihood of a match where goals will be at a premium. Expect a tight contest, with a scoreline potentially finishing 0-0 or 1-0 at most.

Odds Available:  2.90

Result:  Win

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2024-08-24 1900:  Brown Adrogue vs Defensores Unidos

Compelling and evenly-matched La Liga 2 battle likely to entertain

Bet #37 - BTTS No

Brown Adrogue have struggled offensively in recent home matches, failing to score in 11 of their last 13 games. This trend is reflected in their overall performance and their ability to cancel out their opposition lately, as at least one team failed to score in 12 of their last 14 outings - home or away.

However, their defense has been solid at home, with Brown Adrogue keeping a clean sheet in 6 of their last 7 matches.

On the other hand, Defensores Unidos have also faced scoring issues away from home, going scoreless in 9 of their last 13 away matches. At least one team has failed to find the net in 9 of Defensores Unidos' last 13 away fixtures.

Plenty of sense in taking another whack at the BTTS No here, albeit at solid odds-on.

Odds Available:  1.62

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-24 1800:  Levante vs Cadiz CF

Compelling and evenly-matched La Liga 2 battle likely to entertain

Bet #36 - 1X2: Draw

Levante vs Cádiz is a match where a draw seems a very likely outcome, and there are several reasons why. First, Levante’s recent home performance has been solid but not outstanding. Despite being a competitive team, they often struggle to secure victories, especially against well-organized opponents like Cádiz. In their last five home matches, Levante have managed to win only twice, with their offense often failing to break through against stronger defenses.

On the other hand, Cádiz are known for their resilience, especially in away matches. Their ability to secure points from draws in difficult away games is one of their strengths, and their recent defensive record suggests they will aim to frustrate Levante and avoid defeat. Cádiz have drawn three of their last six away matches, showing that they can hold their ground against formidable opponents.

Both teams have solid defenses, which points to a low-scoring match. Levante may find it hard to break Cádiz down, while Cádiz might focus more on defense than on creating scoring opportunities. With both teams having a tendency toward draws and cautious play, a stalemate seems to be the most likely result.

Odds Available:  3.30

Result:  Win

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2024-08-24 1800:  El Porvenir vs Ituzaingo

Intense Primera C fixture should also be a tight affair

Bet #35 - Under 1.5 Goals

It's certainly possible that this game ends with at least one clean sheet as the match is likely to be tight. If it plays out as expected then there is value in the goal line; and it's under 1.5 goals in this match considering the odds that are available there.

El Porvenir have drawn 7 of their last 20 matches on their own soil, including their most recent match when they drew 0-0 with Club Lujan last week. Ituzaingo have drawn 8 of their last 19 away matches. It isn't very exciting and it feels like a match to be circumspect about. Stalemate beckons after what looks likely to be a low-scoring affair.

Odds Available:  2.38

Result:  Win

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2024-08-24 1730:  Al Ain vs Khorfakkan

Khorfakkan epitomise the role of outsiders in this UAE League fixture. The Al Ain price is too short so they can't be tipped up. Khorfakkan might struggle away from home but there is simply no value in backing the favourites. A handful of stats support some of the value in the derivative markets.  Specifically, we are picking this as a low-scoring affair with only one side hitting the back of the net.  

These are the two bets for your consideration in this one.

Bet #33 - BTTS No

• Khorfakkan have been scoreless in 6 of their last 15 matches
• In this match-up at least one team failed to score in 3 of the last 4 matches
• Al Ain have been scoreless in 2 of their last 4 home matches
• At least one team failed to score in 2 of Al Ain's last 4 home matches
• At least one team failed to score in 7 of Khorfakkan's last 15 matches

Odds Available:  2.75

Result:  Loss

Bet #34 - Under 2.5 Goals

• Khorfakkan have scored 1 or less goals in 13 of their last 16 away matches
• Al Ain have scored 1 or less goals in 11 of their last 18 home matches
• Under 2.5 goals have been scored in 2 of Khorfakkan's last 3 matches
• In this match-up under 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of the last 4 matches
• Khorfakkan have conceded 1 or less goals in 2 of their last 3 matches

Odds Available:  4.00

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-24 1730:  Interesting clash of two 51-year old managers in Serie A

Bet #32 - 1X2: Parma

Paulo Fonseca is just a few months into his three-year contract with AC Milan and while they are a stronger side overall, Parma have managed to hold their own in previous encounters.

• AC Milan have conceded 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 9 matches

The hosts start the match having chalked up 9 wins from their last 20 games. While most previews are saying that AC Milan will win the contest on their own terms and could be a good bet at slightly odds-on, this Parma side is not out of contention.

Parma have several reasons to feel optimistic about this upcoming match against heavily-fancied AC Milan. Under the guidance of manager Fabio Pecchia, Parma have demonstrated strong tactical discipline and have improved their performances, especially at home. Pecchia's approach has helped the team become more organized defensively, making them hard to break down, even against top teams.

• Parma have conceded no more than once per game in 14 of their last 15 matches
• Parma have scored at least one goal in 16 of their last 18 home matches

Parma's solid form at the Ennio Tardini Stadium could be crucial, and their recent resurgence in form suggests they have the potential to exploit AC Milan's occasional lapses. Additionally, Pecchia’s management has given the squad much-needed confidence and tactical awareness.

The match offers a decent price for the home side to prevail and at 4/1, it's a very healthy-looking price and it has got our support.

Odds Available:  5.00

Result:  Win

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2024-08-24 1500:  Unlikely parity beckons between Manchester City and Ipswich

Manchester City take on Ipswich Town in a Premier League matchup that could be more competitive than some expect. While City are almost-unbackable favorites, Ipswich have proven themselves capable in the top flight so don't be surprised to see them get on the scoresheet in what could be a closely contested game.

City, known for their dominance at home, may still face resistance from an Ipswich side that has adapted well to the Premier League. Ipswich have shown they can score against stronger teams, and with City's defense occasionally vulnerable, especially on the counter, Ipswich could find opportunities to exploit.

City, while dominant in possession, might find Ipswich’s disciplined defense tough to break down consistently. Ipswich are likely to focus on keeping things tight at the back and will look to capitalize on any chances they get on the break. A 1-1 scoreline is a big price at 18/1 and it seems plausible, with both teams managing to find the net but keeping the overall tally low.

In short, while City are obviously still the clear favourites, Ipswich’s grit and ability to score could keep the contest tighter than expected, resulting in a low-scoring but competitive game. The bookmakers are expecting three or more goals, and we think that is worth opposing. 

This is how we will be betting the game on Saturday afternoon:

Bet #28 - 1X2: Draw

Odds Available:  12.00

Result:  Loss

Bet #29 - Correct Score 1-1 

Odds Available:  19.00

Result:  Loss

Bet #30 - BTTS Yes

Odds Available:  2.50

Result:  Win

Bet #31 - Under 2.5 Goals 

Odds Available:  3.50

Result:  Loss

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Bet #26 -  1X2: Preston

2024-08-24 1500:  Why we think Preston should be backed to beat Luton

Despite plenty of views in the betting community to the contrary, for us, Preston appears to be a strong pick to win their upcoming match against Luton. Preston’s recent home form and Luton's defensive issues combine to make a convincing case for a Preston victory, regardless of what the naysayers will tell you.

Preston have scored two or more goals in 8 of their last 14 home games. This offensive capability, especially at home, gives them an advantage against a struggling Luton side. Even though some may argue that Preston’s form is inconsistent, their ability to score frequently on their own turf should not be underestimated.

Luton have lost 14 of their last 19 matches, and their defense has been a major issue. On average, they have conceded 2.9 goals per game in their last 20 matches. Such a porous defense leaves them vulnerable to a team like Preston, who can exploit Luton's inability to keep clean sheets. Luton's away form is even more concerning, as they have scored one or fewer goals in each of their last six away matches, suggesting that they may struggle to put pressure on Preston.

Luton’s overall form has been poor, while Preston have shown signs of resilience, particularly at home. While some may argue that Preston have been inconsistent, the context of Luton's defensive weaknesses makes them a more favorable pick. With Luton conceding nearly three goals per match and Preston having a solid home record, it becomes clear why Preston should be backed for a win.

Historical Head-to-Head Advantage

While some may point to Luton’s potential for surprise results, Preston have won two of the last four encounters between the teams. This familiarity with their opponent and recent success gives Preston a psychological edge going into the match. That might not sound like much, but in a close contest, we have to side with the home squad to come through this.

Odds Available:  3.30

Result:  Win

The match could unfold into a war of attrition with the two sides ultimately being pretty even. That's why the BTTS No bet is the most compelling side bet.

Bet #27 - BTTS No 

Odds Available:  2.10

Result:  Win

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Bet #25 - Over 3.5 Goals 

2024-08-24 1500:  Very quickly while waiting for a train... Norwich vs Sheffield United will have a bucket-load of goals!

We think this match is set to be a thrilling goal-fest! Sheffield United's recent defensive struggles are a major factor, with the team conceding two or more goals in 13 of their last 15 matches. Norwich, on the other hand, are potent at home, scoring an impressive average of 2.4 goals across their last 11 games. Additionally, both teams have a history of high-scoring matches, with over 3.5 goals being recorded in 15 of Sheffield’s last 20 games. Expect end-to-end action and at least four goals in this encounter!

Odds Available:  3.00

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-24 1300:  Harju JK Laagri vs Levadia U21

No surprise to see massive price against Levadia U21, a smorgasbord of value in this one.

1. Harju’s Recent Offensive Upsurge:

Harju JK Laagri have demonstrated improved attacking potency in recent matches. Their ability to press forward and create opportunities has increased, with multiple players stepping up in goal-scoring roles. Against a weaker defense like Levadia U21, who have been prone to lapses, Harju are well-positioned to capitalize on these weaknesses and score multiple goals. Their ability to control possession and dictate the pace of the game makes a dominant win quite plausible.

2. Levadia U21’s Defensive Fragility:

Levadia U21 have struggled defensively, particularly on the road, conceding heavily in their recent matches. Their backline has been disorganized, and their inability to contain opposing attacks has been a consistent problem. Harju’s attacking form could easily overwhelm Levadia’s shaky defense, making a large-margin win more likely. Levadia’s poor track record when facing sustained pressure is a key factor in predicting a clean sheet for Harju.

3. Home Advantage for Harju:

Playing at home provides a significant boost for Harju, as their familiarity with the environment often translates to better performances. Levadia U21, by contrast, have shown vulnerability away from home, struggling to maintain focus and structure. Harju’s fan support and comfort at home make them far more likely to dominate this match from start to finish.

4. Levadia’s Struggles in Attack:

Levadia U21 have not been consistent in the attacking third, with their forwards failing to produce in recent games. Their lack of cutting edge and failure to convert chances into goals has been a major issue. This inability to break down defenses suggests that Harju could not only score multiple times but also prevent Levadia from finding the net.

In conclusion, with Harju’s improving attack, Levadia U21’s defensive woes, and the home advantage, a lopsided win for Harju JK Laagri appears to be a highly logical and attainable outcome.

5. Conclusions:

We have found a full-house of value in this one! A home win is short-odds but we don't mind that at all on this occasion. With value in the derivative markets too, the suggested play is to add some Correct Score betting to the main markets. The home side can get this done by 4 or 5 goals to zip...

Bet #20 -  1X2:   Harju JK Laagri to Win

Odds Available:  1.22

Result:  Win

Bet #21 -  BTTS No

Odds Available:  2.10

Result:  Win

Bet #22 -  Over 3.5 Goals

Odds Available:  1.80

Result:  Win

Bet #23 -  Home Win 4-0

Odds Available:  9.00

Result:  Win

Bet #24 -  Home Win 5-0

Odds Available:  15.00

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-24 1230:  Hosts expecting frustration - Brighton vs Manchester Utd

Bet #17 -  1X2: Manchester United to Win

Given some of the hosts' recent results, they might struggle. The Seagulls have been unreliable from a betting point of view. They've lost 4 of their last 5 games as hosts. Surely, Man Utd, the away team, has the edge in terms of price versus value.  Not a huge price in the Match Winner market but they are worth cheering on when they make their trip down to the south coast.

Odds Available:  2.75

Result:  Loss

Bet #18 -  BTTS No

It's possible that this match will be determined by which team is the first to open their account. If the first team to break the deadlock parks the bus, this decent BTTS No price could be a gift. 

Odds Available:  2.63

Result:  Loss

Bet #19 -  Under 3.5 Goals

Brighton have scored no more than once in 16 of their last 17 matches. It would be a shock to see four goals in this one. 

Odds Available:  1.60

Result:  Win

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2024-08-24 1200:  Umea FC vs Bergnasets

Bet #15 -  1X2: Umea FC to Win

So what will actually give this home squad confidence to get the job done? Their finishing has been clinical in recent outings. They'll need some of that form if they have genuine ambitions about denying the visitors and at 4/1 odds they are a good bet in this one. 

Odds Available:  5.00

Result:  Win

Bet #16 -  BTTS No

The sportsbooks expect goals at both ends of the park despite the favouritism for Bergnasets. Nevertheless the odds-against for the No BTTS is the best bet from that market.

Odds Available:  2.50

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-24 1200:  Bergdalens IK vs Frolunda

Bet #14 -  1X2: Bergdalens IK to Win

The hosts have enjoyed some superb passages of play. They scored two or more goals in 10 of their recent 13 matches and they've conceded no more than once in 2 of their last 3 games.

Frolunda have actually let in a hefty three or more goals in 3 of their last 5 matches. Shots on goal have been conspicuous by their absence too. In front of goal the visitors have sometimes been poor. They've been goalless in 4 of their last 12 matches.

Home side to get it done here. 

Odds Available:  3.75

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-24 1200:  Underdogs to test Flora in Estonia?

Bet #13 -  1X2: Draw

There's not much between Khonkaen United and Port MTI FC in the Thai League 1. The hosts are in 15th place with 1 point, compared to their opponents who are in second place on 6 points.

Both of these sides have looked strong in defence. Making a fortress out of their home ground, Khonkaen United have conceded at an average of just 0.6 goals per game over their last 11 matches, while Port MTI FC have only conceded 0.7 goals per game on average in their last 3 away matches.

Take the draw in this one at 7/2 with the lads at Betway. 

Odds Available:  4.50

Result:  Loss

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2024-08-24 1030:  Underdogs to test Flora in Estonia?

Bet #11 -  1X2: Draw

The betting lines are going for the away side to come through this match in second-gear but our system suggests that the value is with the generous draw price.

The super-short price for Flora renders them unbackable in this Meistriliiga women's game. Tallinna Kalev don't look likely to upset the apple cart but they might give the visitors plenty to think about. A small bet on the 14/1 draw is our play in the Match Winner market for this one.

Odds Available:  15.00

Result:  Loss

Bet #12 -  BTTS Yes

The sportsbooks' prices suggest that one of these sides doesn't look likely to score because Flora are such big favourites. But the odds-against for the BTTS Yes is the best way to extract some value from this fixture.

Odds Available:  4.00

Result:  Loss

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Bet #10 -  Over 3.5 Goals

2024-08-24 0100:  New York City II vs Chicago Fire II

New York City II are currently in seventh place and they will host fifth-place Chicago Fire II. The hosts are in some frustratingly patchy form having lost 8 of their last 19 games at home. To add to their woes, they've conceded three or more goals in 7 of their last 19 home matches. 

Both sides have been scoring frequently in their recent games and there is plenty of logic to think this trend continues in this MLS Next Pro clash early on Saturday morning.

There are plenty the compelling stats that stand out for us. Four goals or more have been scored in 18 of Chicago Fire II's last 20 away matches, and a similar tally has been achieved in 12 of New York City II's last 20 home matches. 

Further, more recently Chicago Fire II have conceded an average of 4.3 goals in their last 4 away matches so there is no reason to think that the stars won't be aligned once more for a high-scoring game.

So for fans of the goal line, it's four goals or more standing out in this one considering the odds that are available with BetVictor.

Odds Available:  1.83

Result:  Win

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2024-08-23 1945:  PSG will run roughshod over Montpellier 

PSG face Montpellier in a Ligue 1 clash where a dominant home performance is expected. PSG, currently in strong form, have won 10 of their last 11 encounters against Montpellier. This record, combined with Montpellier's defensive vulnerabilities, makes a home win at 1.33 with 10Bet a sensible prediction.

Bet #7 -  1X2: PSG

PSG's recent form suggests they are a force to be reckoned with, having scored two or more goals in 14 of their last 19 games. On the other hand, Montpellier have struggled defensively, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last seven matches​.

The Parisians have also secured victory in all of their last four games, while Montpellier have conceded in each of their seven recent matches. With this history and form, PSG’s home advantage looks formidable, making them overwhelming favorites to win.

Odds Available:  1.33

Result:  Win   

Bet #8 -  BTTS No

The BTTS No bet at 2.25 with William Hill is also attractive. Historically, this fixture has seen at least one team fail to score in 11 of the last 19 matchups​.

PSG have managed a clean sheet in one of their last three games, and Montpellier have also failed to score in one of their previous three encounters. Additionally, 9 of Montpellier’s last 18 away games have seen a side fail to find the back of the net. Given PSG’s defensive prowess at home, it's feasible Montpellier might struggle to score, strengthening the BTTS No prediction.

Odds Available:  2.25

Result:  Win   

Bet #9 - Over 3.5 Goals

For those expecting a goal fest, the Over 3.5 Goals bet at 1.91 with bet365 is worth considering. It is the value bet in the Total Goals market. Historically, this matchup has been high-scoring, with over 3.5 goals in 12 of the last 14 meetings​. That stat alone is pretty mouthwatering. 

PSG’s attacking power at home often leads to these totals being met, and with Montpellier conceding regularly, it's likely we could see a similar result. Despite Montpellier’s defensive issues, they have been scoring too, finding the net in five of their last six away matches. None of those matches have been against PSG however!  But if they do find success, this could be a nice insurance bet to go next to the BTTS No position.

Odds Available:  1.91

Result:  Win   

Conclusions

In summary, a PSG win seems almost inevitable given their superior form and Montpellier's defensive lapses. They could be famous last words, but the 1.33 is generous. The odds for both BTTS No and Over 3.5 goals complement this author's belief that we are in for a somewhat one-sided affair. It all points to a potential high-scoring game of football and ultimately a dominant PSG display.

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Bet #6 -  BTTS Yes

2024-08-23 1900: Both teams are likely to score in Barcelona Women vs AC Milan Women

This match presents strong reasons to believe that both teams will find the back of the net. Barcelona Women, while dominant in many areas, have been vulnerable defensively, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game in their last 19 matches. Meanwhile, AC Milan Women have a similarly shaky defense, allowing an average of 2.4 goals in their last 16 matches.

Moreover, both teams have shown offensive capabilities, with both teams scoring in 8 of their last 12 games each. Given this pattern, odds of 3.6 for both teams to score seem overly generous, as the statistics suggest it's a likely outcome. The teams' recent head-to-head matches also reflect this, with both teams scoring in 4 of their last 6 encounters, further reinforcing the likelihood of a goal from both sides.

Given the consistent defensive issues and offensive strength from both teams, it's reasonable to expect an open game with goals from each side.

Odds Available:  3.60

Result:  Loss   

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Bet #5 -  Over 3.5 Goals

2024-08-23 1830: High goal potential in Tropezon vs Torrelavega

The upcoming match between Tropezon and Torrelavega is likely to feature a high number of goals, with four or more goals being a strong possibility give the chunky odds-against that is available at time of writing.

Both teams have shown defensive weaknesses in recent games. Tropezon have conceded three or more goals in four of their last five matches, and Torrelavega have faced similar struggles, allowing three or more goals in four of their last five outings as well. Additionally, over 3.5 goals have been recorded in three of the last five matches for both teams, further reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.

You can get a decent odds-against price for this one, with some 7/2 available (4.50 decimal).

Odds Available:  4.50

Result:  Loss  

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Bet #4 -  Under 3.5 Goals 

2024-08-23 1630:  Low goal expectation in OTP vs OPS Match

Both teams have shown signs of defensive vulnerabilities, but their attacking efforts have been limited. OTP have been scoreless in nearly half of their recent matches, indicating a lack of consistent goal-scoring form. Similarly, OPS have failed to score more than one goal in four of their last five away games.

Low-Scoring Trends

The trend suggests fewer goals overall. In two of the last three away matches for OPS, fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored, a pattern mirrored by OTP in over half of their recent home matches. These statistics suggest a low-scoring encounter, highly likely to stay under four goals.

Odds Available:  2.30

Result:  Loss   

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Bet #3 -  BTTS Yes 

2024-08-23 1500:  Enugu Rangers vs Zilimadjou

It's felt by most sportsbooks that only one side is likely to score due to the dominance of Enugu Rangers, a side that has scored at least twice in 10 of their last 14 games. They are as short as 1.07 in places.

But we think both sides can have their moments in this CAF Champions League clash.  In terms of the value, the big price for the BTTS Yes (10/3 in fractional)  looks like it's a far better bet than anything else on offer. 

Here are some reasons why we are betting the BTTS Yes odds at 4.33:

• Enugu Rangers have scored an average 1.8 goals in their last 14 matches
• Zilimadjou have conceded six times in their last 3 matches
• Both teams have scored in 1 of Enugu Rangers's last 3 matches
• Both teams have scored in 1 of Zilimadjou's last 3 matches
• Enugu Rangers have conceded 1 or more goals in 2 of their last 4 matches

Odds Available:  4.33

Result:  Win   

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Bet #2 -  1X2:  Draw 

2024-08-23 1500:  Metallurg Bekabad vs Dinamo Samarkand parity

A draw between Metallurg Bekabad and Dinamo Samarkand seems highly probable for several reasons, based on current form, statistical trends, and match dynamics.

Recent Draw Patterns

Metallurg Bekabad have been involved in a significant number of draws in their recent matches, particularly at home. In fact, they have drawn eight of their last nine home games, indicating a strong tendency to share points when playing in front of their own fans. This repeated pattern shows their resilience in avoiding losses but also their struggles to secure decisive victories. Similarly, Dinamo Samarkand has been involved in five draws over their last 11 matches, reinforcing the possibility of another stalemate.

Defensive Mindset and Low-Scoring Games

Both teams appear to favor a more cautious approach, resulting in low-scoring matches. Metallurg Bekabad have managed to score only one goal or fewer in 15 of their last 18 home games, highlighting their struggles to break down opposition defenses. This lack of firepower increases the likelihood of a tight contest where neither side gains a decisive edge. Dinamo Samarkand have also displayed similar attacking limitations, frequently playing in matches with few goals. When both teams are more defensively focused and struggle to score consistently, the chances of a draw are heightened.

Balanced Head-to-Head Record

Historically, these teams have been quite evenly matched. Neither side has shown dominance in their recent head-to-head encounters, often resulting in tightly contested games. This balance further suggests that this upcoming match could follow a similar pattern, with both teams neutralizing each other’s strengths.

In summary, the blend of Metallurg Bekabad's home draw streak, both teams' low goal tallies, and a history of balanced encounters points toward a likely draw.

Odds Available:  3.00

Result:  Loss 

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Bet #1 -   Under 2.5 Goals

2024-08-22 1800:  FC Copenhagen vs Kilmarnock looks tight

As FC Copenhagen hosts Kilmarnock in this crucial matchup, a deeper look into the players and tactics supports the prediction that this will be a low-scoring affair, making under 2.5 goals a solid betting tip.

FC Copenhagen’s Defensive Prowess

FC Copenhagen’s defense has been a cornerstone of their recent success. With players like Viktor Claesson, who is adept at breaking up play and controlling the tempo from midfield, and Elias Jelert, a reliable presence in defense, Copenhagen has been able to keep multiple clean sheets in their recent outings. Claesson, who is also capable of contributing offensively, often stays back in a deeper role, especially in high-stakes matches, ensuring that the team remains defensively solid. Jelert’s ability to read the game and intercept passes has been crucial in limiting the opposition’s chances, making Copenhagen a tough team to score against at home.

Kilmarnock’s Offensive Challenges

Kilmarnock has faced difficulties in converting chances, particularly in away games. The team relies heavily on players like Daniel Armstrong and Kyle Vassell to create and finish opportunities, but both have struggled to find consistency in front of goal. Armstrong, while being one of the more creative players on the team, has not been able to make a significant impact against well-organized defenses. Vassell, known for his physical presence, has been isolated in many matches, limiting his effectiveness. Against a defensively sound Copenhagen side, Kilmarnock’s limited attacking options are likely to struggle.

Tactical Outlook

FC Copenhagen is expected to control the match through possession, focusing on breaking down Kilmarnock’s defense while maintaining their own solidity at the back. With Claesson orchestrating from midfield, Copenhagen will look to dominate the ball, patiently waiting for opportunities to arise while ensuring they do not leave themselves vulnerable to counter-attacks. Kilmarnock, on the other hand, will likely adopt a more defensive stance, sitting deep and looking to hit Copenhagen on the break. This tactical approach, coupled with their recent form, suggests that Kilmarnock will be more focused on avoiding defeat rather than pushing for a high-scoring game.

Historical Context and Current Form

Historically, when teams like Kilmarnock face stronger opponents away from home, the matches tend to be low-scoring. This is reflected in both teams' recent form and their tactical setups. FC Copenhagen has often kept games tight in European fixtures, prioritizing clean sheets over offensive flair. Similarly, Kilmarnock’s away games have rarely seen high goal tallies, as they tend to play conservatively to secure at least a point.

Given these insights, under 2.5 goals emerges as a strong betting option for this match. The combination of Copenhagen’s defensive strength and Kilmarnock’s struggles in front of goal points to a game where scoring opportunities will be at a premium. This match is likely to be a closely contested battle, with one or two goals possibly deciding the outcome.

Odds Available:  2.55

Result:  Win

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