All-time Profit/Loss graph
The graph below shows the Profit/Loss that could have been achieved from the bet suggestions made in David's Daily football previews.
The blue line shows the total profit from a maximum £10 Sharp Stake method and the ROI % (Return-On-Investment). The orange line shows a straight-line of progress having ironed out the variance. The average stake for this sample is shown in the description above as well as the latest P-Value.
P-Value analysis
When reviewing the performance of a betting history, analysts often refer to a P-Value test of a null-hypothesis. Simply put, that is a statistical test of significance of the results in the dataset. The result is a single number that indicates how much "chance" is likely to have occurred in the results.
All betting history analysis starts with a P-Value = 0.50. This implies there is a 50% chance that the results are achieved by chance alone. With each bet that is placed, the P-Value is updated. If there is no evidence of skill (only chance) in the bet history, the P-Value stays at 0.50.
As the evidence increases that the results are not a result of luck, the P-Value decreases. If a bet history has a P-Value less than 0.10, one can assume with some mid-level confidence that there is skill involved.
For high levels of confidence, we should only really be interested in betting history analysis when the P-Value is less than 0.05. This Goldilocks Zone is highlighted in green in the graph above.
Flat stake betting
David's Daily picks will be optimised with a Sharp Stakes strategy, but for a simple way to bet, a flat stake is also fine. This graph shows results if a flat stake had been used, the same stake for each bet regardless of the odds.
Previous months
Click on any of the months below to see the full archives from every single preview that has been part of David's Daily football so far.
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