All-time Profit/Loss graph
The graph below shows the Profit/Loss that could have been achieved from the bet suggestions made in David's Daily football previews.
The blue line shows the total profit from a maximum £10 Sharp Stake method and the ROI % (Return-On-Investment) is overlaid in red (right axis). The orange line shows a straight-line of progress having ironed out the variance.
£270 from 795 bets with a 6% ROI & average stake of £6
P-Value analysis
When reviewing the performance of a betting history, analysts often refer to a P-Value test of a null-hypothesis. Simply put, that is a statistical test of significance of the results in the dataset. The result is a single number that indicates how much "chance" is likely to have occurred in the results.
All betting history analysis starts with a P-Value = 0.50. This implies there is a 50% chance that the results are achieved by chance alone. With each bet that is placed, the P-Value is updated. If there is no evidence of skill (only chance) in the bet history, the P-Value stays at 0.50.
As the evidence increases that the results are not a result of luck, the P-Value decreases. If a bet history has a P-Value less than 0.10, one can assume with some mid-level confidence that there is skill involved.
For high levels of confidence, we should only really be interested in betting history analysis when the P-Value is less than 0.05. This Goldilocks Zone is highlighted in green in the graphs above.
Flat-stake betting
David's Daily picks will be optimised with a Sharp Stakes strategy, but for a simple way to bet, a flat stake is also fine in the long-run. This graph shows results if a flat stake had been used, the same stake for each bet regardless of the odds.
Understanding variance
Betting variance refers to the natural fluctuations in outcomes that occur over the short-term, even when you're placing bets with a positive expected value (+EV). Variance reflects the unpredictability of short-term results, even if you consistently place bets with an edge. A +EV bet means that, in the long run, you're expected to make a profit, but in the short term, outcomes can deviate significantly from expectations.
For instance, suppose you have an 8% +EV edge on your bets. This means that, over time, you expect to profit by 8% on the total amount staked across all bets that have been placed. However, due to variance, you might experience streaks of bad luck, such as losing several bets in a row, even though each individual bet had a positive expectation. Conversely, you might also experience winning streaks where everything seems to go right. This fluctuation is a normal part of betting and doesn't necessarily reflect the quality of your betting strategy.
Understanding variance is key to managing your bankroll and maintaining discipline. Even with an 8% edge, variance can lead to short-term losses, so it's essential not to be swayed by temporary results. Staying focused on long-term profitability while managing your risk appropriately is crucial for successful betting in the face of variance.
The two graphs below show examples of the wild swings in short-term results that ultimately contribute to the long-term success of the SharpBetting football system. You can learn more about the betting activity that resulted in these charts by clicking here.
Previous months
Click on any of the months below to see the full archives from every single preview that has been part of David's Daily football so far.
- August 2024
- September 2024
- October 2024
- November 2024
- December 2024
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