This article provides a recap for the month of September 2024. All of these betting suggestions were published in David's Daily football previews.
Check out the performance of David's full football betting history here.
During the month of September, the highest odds picked in these previews was the 7/1 odds for the winning bet on BTTS double with PaddyPower on the 16th of the month. However, there was also an odds-on loss at 2/1-on for Dinamo Minsk (W) (against Peamount) that got the month off to a terrible start. The month ended with a decent Thursday afternoon on 26th September when we had two doubles which both landed at odds of 7/2 and 4/1. There was also a 7/1 double with WilliamHill on 30th September that won (at 8.12 decimal odds).
ALL PREVIEWS
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2024-09-30 - Monday
Monday is the last day of September and it looks a long-shot that we will finish with #davidsdaily in profit for the month. When you take the BTTS No in the Phoenix vs Las Vegas game and it's short odds-on to win until the 96th minute, you know you are in the middle of a tough run.
With that said, we've got a few bets that could spin the month on its head. And just like Anthony Joshua's corner told him last weekend, we are rolling the dice with a couple of doubles that could see us turn this around.
Let's get started...
At 0.30am on Monday morning we've got Under 2.5 Goals at 2.38 with SkyBet in the Bolivian Primera Division where Aurora are playing Guabira.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.38
Result: Loss
Then it is WilliamHill at 1am for BTTS No at odds of 6/4 (2.50) when Ocotal play Diriangen in Nicaragua.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Win
Stay with WilliamHill for a 3am game in USA with the MLS Next Pro game between Tacoma Defiance and Houston Dynamo 2. There have been some high scores over there recently but we are sticking to our guns with the BTTS No at 3.25 in this game.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.25
Result: Win
This is our first double. The two WilliamHill bets pay better than 7/1 (8.12) if they both land.
Bet: The WilliamHill Double
Odds Available: 8.12
Result: Win
We can then all get on with our days as there is nothing else of note until 5pm when we are still with Hills for their 2.20 price in the BTTS No market when Stal Rzeszow are playing Tychy in Poland.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Loss
Then it is PaddyPower for a 6pm game in Sweden (Div 1) when Norrby take on Tvaaker. We are taking the Over 2.5 Goals line in this one and the odds of 2.10.
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.10
Result: Win
It's then the Dutch Eerste Divisie for a 7pm game, also with PaddyPower, between Jong PSV and Helmond. It's BTTS No again and the price we like is 2.75 or better.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Loss
After nearly 250 bets since we started doing these in August, it’s interesting to note that the most successful market so far is our *Overs Goal Line* picks. They account for roughly 10% of the bets so far. So it is fitting that the final bet for the month is putting an Over 2.5 Goals bet into a double that pays almost 5/1 (5.78) with PaddyPower.
Bet: The PaddyPower Double
Odds Available: 5.78
Result: Loss
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2024-09-29 - Sunday
Don't forget to Subscribe to our new YouTube channel where we answer a lot of the questions that we regularly receive on X. Essentially, if you put out a question to us about any of the SharpBetting methodologies, we will try to answer it.
Right now, Sunday's action is starting to filter through the SharpBetting algorithms.
And first up it's a 7.30pm game In Argentina between Almirante Brown and Chaco For Ever. Bet365 make it bang-on even-money (2.00) that the game ends with no more than a single goal and we'll take that bet today, tomorrow, and twice on a Sunday. So to speak.
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.00
Result: Loss
Sunday's first game is at 00:30 in the AM in the MLS when CF Montreal play San Jose Earthquakes but we are not expecting the earth to move in this one; SkyBet and BTTS No at 7/4 odds (2.75).
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Win
Also for Sunday's early risers, we are looking at some Betway prices in the USA Championship game when the Las Vegas Lights (5/2) take on Phoenix Rising (7/8) at 3.30am. We are hoping what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas and are expecting at least one clean-sheet here; it's a touch odds-against.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.05
Result: Loss
At the more civilised time of 9.30am we will be back with SkyBet and their offering on the Austrian 2 Liga game featuring Floridsdorfer AC and Lafnitz. Take the BTTS No at the 6/5 odds (2.20).
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Loss
WilliamHIll then gives a Match Winner market offering that we cannot ignore when Rangers play Hibernian in the midday kick-off. We like these short 1.36 odds for the favourites to come through this Scottish Premiership game.
Bet: Rangers to Win
Odds Available: 1.36
Result: Win
Sunday lunchtime dishes up a BTTS No bet opportunity in the German Regionalliga clash between Duren and Koln II. The game starts at 1pm and we like the BTTS No price of 2.45 over there.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.45
Result: Loss
The "Yes" side of the BTTS is the bet at 3pm in Tunisia with the Ben Guerdane vs Olympique Beja game and the 2.62 decimal odds offered by BetfairSportsboook.
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Loss
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2024-09-28 - Saturday
BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK
Here are the first two games we highlighted for Saturday. Both 1pm kickoffs with the Betfair Sportsbook. The first game is over in German 3 Liga when Mannheim will take on RW Essen. At least one clean-sheet can be backed at odds of 2.62.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Win
The second 1pm game is Sandvikens AIK vs IK Franke in the Swedish Division 2. We like the 2.75 odds for a clean-sheet in this one too.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Loss
Again we are compounding the value here and taking a better than 6/1 double in these two 1pm matches.
Bet: Betfair Sportsbook Double
Odds Available: 7.21
Result: Loss
BEST OF THE REST
There is another BetfairSportsbook game that we have just been alerted to that takes place at 12.30pm on Saturday lunchtime in The English Championship. We like a clean-sheet or two when Derby take on Norwich. It's available at 2.15 decimal odds.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.15
Result: Loss
1pm has a couple of games in Germany that we like the look of. We have a big outsider and also some short odds to consider over there in the Regionalliga competition. These are both with the WilliamHill odds on offer. First we would take the very short (but that's ok for us) odds of 1.30 for at least three goals in the Werder Bremen II v Hamburg II match.
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 1.30
Result: Win
And we would also take the WilliamHill 1X2 odds of 9/2 (5.50) for the upset in the Ansbach-Schweinfurt game. Schweinfurt are odds-on (1.44) to win, but we are calling the shock and picking Ansbach here.
Bet: Ansbach to Win
Odds Available: 5.50
Result: Loss
That 5.50 pick would be a great result in isolation so there is no desire to put these last two bets in a double.
SCOTTISH CUP @ 3pm: Stirling University vs Caledonian Braves
We are doing something a little brave on 3pm in the Scottish Cup game available with BetFred. The Braves are a slight-odds-on favourite in the game but we are taking a contrarian view and will hope to see this Stirling University side spring a surprise.
Our main bets are in the BTTS No price of 7/4 (2.75) and the Under 2.5 Goals line at 2/1 (3.00), and we will also be playing some Sharp Stakes methodology on a spread of the Correct Score grid.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Win
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.00
Result: Win
Bet: Correct Score 0-0
Odds Available: 26.00
Result: Loss
Bet: Correct Score 1-0
Odds Available: 19.00
Result: Loss
Bet: Correct Score 2-0
Odds Available: 23.00
Result: Loss
There are two 5.30pm games to close out Saturday afternoon. In the Premier League go to SkyBet for the Wolves vs Liverpool game and take their Under 2.5 Goals odds of 3.25 if still available just moments before kick-off.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.25
Result: Loss
When Bayern Munich play Bayer Leverkusen at the same 5.30pm start time we are expecting to see a clean-sheet from at least one side in this Bundesliga clash. Betfair Sportsbook are offering odds of 3.10 for the BTTS No.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.10
Result: Loss
WilliamHill have got a game in Argentina at 7pm; it's Villa Dalmine v Deportivo Merlo in a coin-flip of a game, and we are looking for a very tight affair with the BTTS No odds of 1.53 supporting that view. Not for everyone, this heinously short price.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.53
Result: Win
At the same time over in the Saudi Arabian Pro League at 7pm, we are taking the Under 2.5 Goals line with SkyBet in the Al Kholood vs Al Hilal match. They're offering 3.75 odds about that outcome.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.75
Result: Loss
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2024-09-27 - Friday
Thursday afternoon threw up a couple of stress-free doubles which both landed. Could we be marking the end of September with a change of fortune after the repeated bad-beats at the start of the month? At time of writing [Thursday afternoon] we are £40 down for the month and we have four days to turn this around.
Now we attempt to continue the September comeback, starting here at midday on Friday:
PADDY POWER
It is Israeli Liga Alef for M. Ironi Ashdod vs Jerusalem FC with PaddyPower at 11:55am on Friday. At least one clean-sheet at odds of 2.25 for this one.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.25
Result: Win
Couple hours later in the Armenian Premier League, also with Paddys and their 2.25 price for BTTS No when FC Gandzasar plays Shirak Gyumri at 2pm.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.25
Result: Loss
Let's crack on by putting both of those in a 4/1 double.
Bet: PaddyPower Double
Odds Available: 5.06
Result: Loss
BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK
At 2pm, now over with the Betfair Sportsbook in the Malaysian Super League. Negeri Sembilan vs Kelantan DNFC is the match and BTTS No is the market. Odds of 2.30 is what we are looking for.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.30
Result: Loss
Later with BFSB, at 7pm we are in the Dutch Eerste Divisie for the FC Volendam vs Venlo game and we like the BTTS No price of 2.55.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.55
Result: Loss
At the same time with the same book, in the Dutch Eredivisie, we like BTTS No in the Heracles-Heerenveen clash at odds of 2.62.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Loss
And with these three selections in a treble paying odds of better than 14/1, what's not to like about that.
Bet: Betfair Sportsbook Treble
Odds Available: 15.37
Result: Loss
ELSEWHERE
Mid-afternoon, 3.30pm on Friday is the time to see the kick-off in a Finnish Ykkosliiga game between SJK Akatemia and Mikkeli. At odds of 6/4 (2.50), we like the BTTS No again here. Go to SkyBet for this one.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Loss
At 6pm in the Serbia Super League game (Crvena zvezda vs Zeleznicar Pancevo) we have a different market at odds of 2.10 for the Under 3.5 Goals line with BetVictor.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.10
Result: Win
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2024-09-26 - Thursday
On Thursday we are having some fun with SkyBet in the Greek Cup around lunchtime. The 1pm game is Zakynthos vs Panargiakos and we have a BTTS No single at odds of 6/5 (2.20).
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Win
At 2pm, it's the similarly-easy-to-pronounce Nea Ionia vs Panionios clash. Again we take the BTTS No at even-money (2.00) with Skybet. We also take some of their 5/4 odds (2.25) for the Under 2.5 Goals line.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.00
Result: Win
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.25
Result: Win
Now we will also compound the value in this one by putting both of these 2pm bets in a double with the 1pm selection. The first double (2.20 x 2.00) pays nearly 7/2 (4.40) and the second double (2.20 x 2.25) pays nearly 4/1 (4.95)
Two SkyBet Doubles
Bet: BTTS No (1pm) x BTTS No (2pm)
Odds Available: 4.40
Result: Win
Bet: BTTS No (1pm) x Under 2.5 Goals (2pm)
Odds Available: 4.95
Result: Win
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2024-09-25 - Wednesday
At 2.30pm on Wednesday there is a Slovakian Cup game between MFk Bytca and Tatran Lip Mikulas. Go to PaddyPower for their BTTS Yes market that is currently trading at 6/5 (2.20).
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Win
Late afternoon has a 5.30pm game between Holbaek and Holstebro in the Danish Cup. BetfairSportsbook make it 6/4 (2.50) for the BTTS No bet in this particular game.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Loss
Wednesday evening starts at 6pm in the Norwegian 1st Division with PaddyPower offering a BTTS No price of 2.25 in the Moss vs Sandes match.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.25
Result: Loss
Then it's BetfairSportsbook's even-money (2.00) about the BTTS No in the UEFA Europa League clash between Ludogorets and Slavia Prague which kicks off at 8pm.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.00
Result: Win
Since it's just these BTTS YES and No across these two books today, we are putting up a couple of 4/1 doubles. Firstly, the PaddyPower double pays 2.20 (Yes) x 2.25 (No) = 4.95 (almost 4/1). Then we have exactly 4/1 (5.00) odds for the BetfairSportsbook double.
Bet: The PaddyPower double
Odds Available: 4.95
Result: Loss
Bet: The BetfairSportsbook double
Odds Available: 5.00
Result: Loss
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2024-09-24 - Tuesday
Tuesday at 2pm has a game in Poland between Podbeskidzie 2 and Odra Opole. Check the Unibet price for Under 3.5 Goals and if they are still going 17/10 (2.70), that could be a solid play. That price is available with several other books.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.70
Result: Loss
There's also a 3pm game we like with the Unibet lads & lasses. Naesby are playing B93 in Denmark and we would take on the BTTS No odds of 3.10.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.10
Result: Loss
With these two games just an hour apart and both these bets with Unibet, we would put them in a double that pays better than 7/1 (8.37 decimal).
Bet: The Unibet double
Odds Available: 8.37
Result: Loss
At 6pm, we are backing at least one clean sheet at 6/4 (2.50) with SkyBet in the German 3 Liga game between Osnabruck and Cottbus.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Loss
We have got a bet in the EFL Trophy at 7pm on Tuesday when Doncaster take on Manchester Utd's U21s. We like the PaddyPower price for at least four goals in this one, available at 11/10 (2.10).
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.10
Result: Win
Unlikely to be straightforward for Operario in Brazil's Serie B
At 11pm on Tuesday night, Operario will take on Guarani in Brazil's Serie B at their home ground Estadio Germano Kruger. Operario are currently sitting on a price tag that makes them approximately even-money favourites. We are expecting them to be caught napping and think that Guarani (currently 7/2 outsiders) will make a match of it. The draw is currently 7/4 (2.75) with Bet365.
Those 1X2 prices don't offer much appeal, so we are taking the BTTS Yes with Bet365 at odds of 2.62. We will also play the Over 2.5 Goals line in this game, also with Bet365, at odds of 3.40.
Recent performances by both of these teams have produced plenty of goal-scoring chances at both ends of the park. This has been borne out in the recent stats. Experiencing frequent periods of vulnerability at home over the recent three matches, Operario have conceded five times in that period. Similarly, Guarani have also developed a proclivity for conceding goals during their most recent away trips.
The betting markets suggest that at least one of these sides will look to park the bus in a match that has potential to under-deliver according to the short odds for the draw (36%) combined with the odds-on in the BTTS No market (69%). But the odds-against for the BTTS Yes is the better way to extract some value from the match. And coupled with the Over 2.5 Goals line, we will also play the Correct Score market and the 22/1 (23.00) odds for an entertaining 2-2 scoreline.
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Loss
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.40
Result: Loss
Bet: Correct Score 2-2
Odds Available: 23.00
Result: Loss
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2024-09-23 - Monday
The Strongest vs Blooming Santa Cruz
Monday starts at 0.30am in the Bolivian Primera Division where we are looking at SkyBet's odds of 2/1 (3.00) about there being fewer than three goals in the match between The Strongest and Club Blooming.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.00
Result: Win
Birmingham U21 vs Fleetwood U21
It's the same price and the same sportsbook at 1pm in the English Professional Development League game between the U21 sides representing Birmingham and Fleetwood but we are taking the BTTS No in this one.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.00
Result: Loss
Since we are on SkyBet and have both these loaded in the barrel, we would add them into a double that pays 8/1 (9.00). A long-shot, but would be a great start to the week come Monday lunchtime.
Bet: A SkyBet Double
Odds Available: 9.00
Result: Loss
FC Shirak vs Alashkert
There's a 4pm game in the Armenian Premier League and we are backing at least one side to end with a clean-sheet at the odds of 11/10 (2.10) with BetfairSportsbook.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.10
Result: Win
Sacachispas vs Deportivo Merlo
It is then PaddyPower and a 7pm kick-off in the Argentinian Primera B Metropolitana. Sacachispas are playing Deportivo Merlo and the odds of 4/5 (1.80) for the BTTS No makes that a bet.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.80
Result: Win
Defensores de Belgrano vs Almirante Brown
Also at 7pm in Argentina, in the Primera B Nacional competition, we would take the Under 1.5 Goals at odds of 2.15 with the BetfairSportsbook.
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.15
Result: Loss
Jong Utrech vs Cambuur
Staying with BetfairSportsbook we like the BTTS No odds of 2.55 in the Jong Utrech vs Cambuur in the Dutch Eerste Divisie.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.55
Result: Win
We would close out Monday evening with a 7pm double that pays around 9/2 (5.48) for the Under 1.5 Goals bet in the Argentina game and the BTTS No in the Dutch game.
Bet: A BetfairSportsbook Double
Odds Available: 5.48
Result: Loss
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After a double-save for the ages denied us a 14/1 winner in Thursday night's Champions League game between Atalanta and Arsenal, we still finished that game with more than 2.5 units profit. But had that penalty kick been scored it would have been a great evening of results. Nevertheless, we have to take the rough with the smooth and with that in mind we move into the weekend's action.
2024-09-22 - Sunday
Hartford Athletic vs Oakland Roots
Just as 100,000 people are making their way out of Wembley Stadium after an epic night of boxing, Sunday morning starts at 0:00am for #David'sDaily with Hartford Athletic vs Oakland Roots in America's USL Championship. The BTTS No price with Unibet at odds of 11/8 (2.38) stands out there.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.38
Result: Win
Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
Defensa y Justicia will play San Lorenzo in the Argentinian Primera Division at a little after 1am (UK time) and you can get odds of 2.45 with BetfairSport for Under 1.5 Goals in the game.
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.45
Result: Win
FC Dallas vs Los Angeles FC
We go back stateside for a Major League Soccer game at 1:30am between FC Dallas and Los Angeles FC. It is BetfairSports again for BTTS No and their odds of 2.70 for this one.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.70
Result: Loss
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Staying in the MLS for a 3:30am start with Unibet this time, we like the Under 2.5 Goals price of 3.15 in the match between LA Galaxy and Vancouver Whitecaps.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.15
Result: Loss
Villarreal vs Barcelona
We were on the wrong end of a La Liga result last night, and Sunday at 5.30pm gives us a chance to return to that tournament when Villarreal welcome Barcelona to Estadio de la Ceramica. At a shade odds-on, Barcelona are too short for this one. We are taking the Bet365 price of 10/3 (4.33) for Villarreal to come through this. It obviously won't be straightforward, and we'll be backing up the 1X2 bet with a few big prices in the Correct Score offering. You can get a 1-0 Villarreal win at 20/1 (21.00) and a goalless stalemate is a 25/1 (26.00) shot.
Bet: Villarreal to Win
Odds Available: 4.33
Result: Loss
Bet: Villarreal to Win 1-0
Odds Available: 21.00
Result: Loss
Bet: Correct Score 0-0
Odds Available: 26.00
Result: Loss
Atromitos FC vs Lamia
We round out the weekend at 6.30pm on Sunday evening when there is a Greece Super League game between Atromitos FC and Lamia in which we want to see plenty of goals. We would take the Over 3.5 Goals line at the unlikely price of 3.70 that you can get with BetVictor.
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.70
Result: Win
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2024-09-21 - Saturday
Puebla vs Pachuca
Saturday starts with a possible upset in Mexico (Liga MX) when we pick Puebla to beat Pachuca at 2am. There seems to be a bit of a drift in the market and they can now be backed at 7/2 (4.50) with BetVictor which would be a good price to get the weekend started.
Bet: Puebla to Win
Odds Available: 4.50
Kumamoto vs Blaublitz
Result: Loss
10am on Saturday we are in the Japanese League 2 with SkyBet BTTS No price of 10/11 (1.91) in the Kumamoto-Blaublitz matchup.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.91
Result: Loss
Canberra FC vs Tigers FC
Then at 10:05am in Australia (AUS NPL Capital Territory) we are taking the Over 3.5 Goals line with BetVictor in the Canberra-Tigers game. They make it 17/10 (2.70) for at least four goals and we would take those odds for this one turning into a goalfest.
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.70
Result: Win
Anadia FC vs Rabo Peixe
We then flip the script and take the Under 3.5 Goals line in an 11am game in the Portuguese Cup between Anadia FC and Rabo Peixe. SkyBet are 1/2 (1.50) which is pretty short but we make that the value play here.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 1.50
Result: Win
Chernomorets Odessa vs Karpaty Lviv
At 11am SkyBet are covering the Ukrainian Premier League between Chernomorets Odessa and Karpaty Lviv and it's BTTS No again and the odds of 10/11 (1.91) that stand out in this fixture.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.91
Result: Win
AFC Fylde vs Woking
At 3pm in the English National League we are taking SkyBet's 6/4 odds (2.50) for the BTTS No market in the AFC Fylde vs Woking game.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Loss
Argentino de Merlo v Villa Dalmine
The odds of 4/6 (1.67) for the BTTS No that you can get with WilliamHill for the Argentinian Primera B clash between Argentino de Merlo and Villa Dalmine is our selection in this 5pm kick-off on Saturday.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.67
Result: Win
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Mbabane Swallows
Also at 5pm, Mamelodi Sundowns vs Mbabane Swallows is a CAF Champions League game in which we think the BTTS Yes is a good call at the odds of 5/2 (3.50) with WilliamHill's market-makers.
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 3.50
Result: Loss
Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray
Fenerbahce will take on Galatasaray in the Turkish Super League at 6pm on Saturday. We can currently get 2.63 odds for at least one of these sides finishing the game with a clean-sheet. That is with BetfairSportsbook.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.63
Almagro vs Colon Santa Fe
Result: Loss
At the same 6pm kick-off time there is an Argentina Primera Nacional match between Almagro and Colon Santa Fe. WilliamHill make it a 6/5 shot (2.20) that there will be no more than a single goal in this one. We think that is a good bet.
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Loss
Raja Casablanca vs Samartex
The first 8pm kick-off is with PaddyPower and their CAF Champions League Qualifiers markets. We are taking the 1.95 odds for BTTS No in the game between Raja Casablanca and Samartex.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.95
Result: Win
Real Madrid vs Espanyol
In Spain's La Liga at 8pm we are picking Real Madrid (3rd in La Liga) to get through Espanyol (12th in the table) on Saturday night. We think they will make it three wins in a row in Spain's top-tier and Espanyol, while showing some decent form themselves, can keep them honest.
Real Madrid have won 18 of their last 20 matches against Espanyol, including last season's come-from-behind 3-1 win in March at the Bernabeu, and so their 1.16 price isn't very attractive, albeit equitable. Instead of that 1X2 price, we are taking the Under 2.5 Goals price and some supporting Correct Score markets with Bet365.
Real Madrid have only conceded three times over their last nine games and, at home, they are having no trouble finding the net. Going back over their last twelve home games, they have scored at least twice in eleven of them. Meanwhile Espanyol have been goalless in seven of their recent nine away trips.
It feels like a game where the favourites can prove themselves worthy of their short-price but that might not translate to a significant margin of victory. No more than two goals at 2/1 odds (3.00) looks like a decent runner in this one.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.00
Result: Loss
Bet: Real Madrid to Win 1-0
Odds Available: 9.50
Result: Loss
Bet: Real Madrid to Win 2-0
Odds Available: 7.00
Result: Loss
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2024-09-20 - Friday
Bani Yas vs Ajman
In the United Arab Emirates (UAE League) game between Bani Yas and Ajman at 2.30pm, SkyBet will give us 6/4 (2.50) about BTTS No which makes the grade as a decent value selection to get the weekend underway.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Loss
KuPS (W) vs HPS (W)
In Finland's Kansallinen Liiga Women's Championship Group game between KuPS and HPS, the odds-makers at WIlliamHill have got a 6/4 price (2.50) for BTTS No that has grabbed our attention. It's a 4.30pm kick-off for this one.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Win
Stripfing vs Bregenz
At 5pm we are looking at SkyBet's prices offerd for an Austrian 2 Liga clash between Stripfing and Bregenz. They give us 6/4 (2.50) odds for a clean-sheet or two in that one.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Win
RB Leipzig (W) vs Werder Bremen (W)
WilliamHill have just moved the BTTS No odds in this German Bundesliga Women's game between RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen at 5.30pm. They've gone from 2.30 to 2.50 which moves that pick into the territory of being good value for at least one of the sides maintaining a clean-sheet.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Win
Manisa FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor
At 6pm on Friday we are looking at the Turkish 1 Lig game between Manisa FK and Yeni Malatyaspor on SkyBet where we can get 4/5 odds (1.80) for BTTS No. Decent looking bet this one, price might not last long. We don't mind a short price so will also be taking the 1/4 odds (1.25), also with SkyBet, for the Manisa FK win in the 1X2.
Yeni Malatyaspor have conceded at least three goals in 11 of their last 12 matches. It is no surprise to learn they have lost all twelve of them. And their problems aren't exclusive to the defensive third; if they fail to score in this one, it will be 12 successive games without a goal. We expect the wheels to come off again shortly after the opening whistle.
We are backing up these main bets in the 1X2 and BTTS with a couple of Correct Score picks. Manisa FK to win 3-0 at 7/1 (8.00) and to win 4-0 at 12/1 (13.00), both of these also with SkyBet. They've had some superb spells in their previous performances and are confident on the back of scoring at least twice in four of their last five matches.
Bet: Manisa FK to Win
Odds Available: 1.25
Result: Win
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.80
Result: Loss
Bet: Manisa FK to Win 3-0
Odds Available: 8.00
Result: Loss
Bet: Manisa FK to Win 4-0
Odds Available: 13.00
Result: Loss
CR Belouizdad vs AS Douanes
Since BetfairSportsbook are offering prices on the CAF Champions League Qualification game at 6pm, we will take them on with their Under 2.5 Goals price which is currently available at (7/5) 2.40.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.40
Result: Win
Nykobing vs Ishoj
We look to Denmark's 2nd Division for at least one clean-sheet in the Nykobing-Ishoj match at 6pm and it's 32Red, as well as a few others, who are offering 2.35 odds for that one.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.35
Result: Loss
Karlovac v Jadran Luka Ploce
We are also in Croatia (Druga NL) for Karlovac vs Jadran Luka Ploce at 6pm since WilliamHill make it 6/5 against there being at least one clean-sheet in this one (2.20).
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Win
Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile-Carouge
We then drop down to Switzerland's Challenge League for Stade Nyonnais vs Etoile-Carouge at 6.30pm, where Skybet are going 6/4 (2.50) about BTTS No.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Loss
Penybont vs The New Saints
We then check in on the Welsh Premiership for a game between Penybont and The New Saints at 7.45pm. BetfairSportsbook make it a shade odds-on that their will be at least one clean-sheet in the match, and we think it should be even shorter. Their 1.87 odds for BTTS No is the play for us in this one.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.87
Result: Loss
St. Patricks vs Waterford
The Ireland Premier Division match featuring St. Patricks and Waterford offers a short price for Under 3.5 Goals with SkyBet. Two-to-one-on (1.50) might not be for everyone but we would take that price.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 1.50
Result: Win
____________________
2024-09-19 20:00 - Europa League winners can thwart an underpowered Gunners lineup
Atalanta vs Arsenal
Under a cloud of injury worries, Arsenal will start their Champions League campaign on Thursday night with an unbeaten record so far in their four Premier League fixtures this season. Reminiscent of Arsenal sides of old, the Gunners have conceded only once in the EPL and Gabriel's match-winning header against Tottenham on Sunday sees them sitting firmly in second place in the table.
But Atalanta's potential to win a close game against Arsenal in this all-new-format Champions League fixture can be attributed to several key factors that work in their favour. Despite facing some injury challenges, Atalanta are a resilient and well-organised team under Gian Piero Gasperini, and their ability to perform in high-pressure situations has been a hallmark of their recent success. This was evident in their 3-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen for Europa League glory in May.
We've found odds of 3/1 (4.00) for the Atalanta win with Betfred and that is generally the consensus best-price at time of writing, two days out from matchday.
- Atalanta have a 75% win rate at home going back twenty fixtures on their own turf
One of Atalanta's most compelling strengths is their tactical versatility and fluidity. Gasperini's side thrives on their aggressive pressing, quick transitions, and ability to overload the flanks, which can pose significant problems for an Arsenal team dealing with an injury crisis. With key Arsenal players like Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, and several others either doubtful or sidelined, the Gunners might struggle to cope with Atalanta’s intensity and high-tempo play. Atalanta’s squad depth, despite its own injuries, is still formidable, with players like Ademola Lookman (scorer of five goals in three Europa League games at the back-end of last season) and the returning Nicolo Zaniolo capable of delivering moments of brilliance.
The Bergamo-based club's home advantage also plays a crucial role in why they can emerge victorious in a tight encounter. Betfred also make it a 6/5 shot (2.20) that only one side has success on goal and we think that is the bet for this match too. In their success over Leverkusen, Atalanta only had 33% of the ball but in that time they were able to get off as many shots (10) as Leverkusen and with greater accuracy when those opportunities arose.
Atalanta will be playing in their newly renovated stadium, which can provide an extra psychological boost. The passionate home support, coupled with the significance of the occasion — their return to the Champions League — will undoubtedly spur them on. Arsenal, on the other hand, may be more cautious, especially given their upcoming high-stakes matches and injury concerns. This cautious approach from Arsenal could allow Atalanta to exploit spaces and capitalise on moments of indecision.
- Atalanta have scored at least twice per game in 15 of their last 18 home matches
Another factor is Atalanta’s recent European success, including their Europa League triumph. Their experience in knockout-style competitions, combined with their ability to rise to the occasion against stronger teams (as evidenced by their victories over Bayer Leverkusen and Liverpool in recent years), shows they can handle high-pressure situations.
Gasperini’s team knows how to manage tight, low-scoring games and pounce on the opposition’s vulnerabilities. He will be boosted by the return of Sead Kolasinac and Berat Djimsiti after their recent injuries, and that team news will solidify the Atalanta back-line if they both start. Bet365 make it 10/3 (4.33) for the Under 1.5 Goals line and we will be taking that on. 32Red make it 2.35 for Under 2.5 Goals and we'll be playing on that market too.
While Arsenal are formidable and have their own set of strengths, including a strong defense and a continued impressive set-piece threat, Atalanta’s tactical approach, home advantage, and experience in grinding out results make them well-equipped to win a close game in this opening league-phase Champions League encounter.
To support these four positions in the main markets (1X2, BTTS, Goal Line), we will also be having a bet on Atalanta to win the game by one goal to nil, which is available at 14/1 (15.00) as well as 2-0 which is a 25/1 shot (26.00).
Bet: Atalanta to Win
Odds Available: 4.00
Result: Loss
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Win
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 4.33
Result: Win
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.35
Result: Win
Bet: Correct Score Atalanta to Win 1-0
Odds Available: 15.00
Result: Loss
Bet: Correct Score Atalanta to Win 2-0
Odds Available: 26.00
Result: Loss
Update: It required one of the best double-saves in Champions League history to deny our 14/1 pick last night. Still it was a good result for this game with the combined picks bringing in 2.56 Units.
2024-09-19: Thursday's other matches
We are pretty No-heavy on the BTTS this week, and that trend continues in the MLS game between Atlanta Utd and Inter Miami in America at 0:30am (UK time) on Thursday. We are taking the 3.10 price for at least one clean-sheet come full time. This is offered by BetfairSportsbook.
At the same time SkyBet offer 13/8 (2.62) for BTTS No in the MLS game between New England Revolution and CF Montreal.
At 1am we fade into Bolivia for The Strongest's game with Bolivar and we'll take on the bwin odds of 5/4 (2.25) for the BTTS No in that one.
It is back to the MLS at 3am for Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles Galaxy and SkyBet will give us 5/2 (3.50) about the BTTS No coming good there.
Atlanta Utd vs Inter Miami
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.10
Result: Loss
New England Revolution vs CF Montreal
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Loss
The Strongest vs Bolivar
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.25
Result: Loss
Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.50
Result: Loss
At 11am in Asia's AFC Cup, we take BTTS No in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kaya with WilliamHill who are offering 1.70 odds for that one.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kaya
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.70
Result: Win
Early evening in the Champions League at 5:45pm, it's Feyenoord vs Bayer Leverkusen and the odds for a clean-sheet in this one are 6/4 (2.50) with Betway. That's worth a shout.
Feyenoord vs Bayer Leverkusen
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Win
In the Women's Champions League qualification matches at 6pm, we like Over 3.5 Goals with WilliamHill at 1.85 in the St. Polten - Mura game, and we like BTTS No at 2.50 with Unibet when Galatasaray take on Slavia Prague.
Galatasaray (W) vs Slavia Prague (W)
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Loss
St. Polten (W) vs Mura (W)
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 1.85
Result: Loss
Also at 6pm, we've got a bet in Sweden's Allsvenskan and we are picking both sides (Elfsborg and Norrkoping) to score at odds of 1.90 with BetVictor.
Elfsborg vs Norrkoping
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 1.90
Result: Win
The other 8pm Champions League game we like is Monaco vs Barcelona and the BTTS No odds of 7/4 (2.75) with BetfairSportsbook.
Monaco vs Barcelona
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Loss
We round off a busy evening at 9.15pm with SkyBet in the Peruvian Primera Division (Los Chankas vs Cajamarca) and we've got the 2.20 price for BTTS No in that one.
Los Chankas vs Cajamarca
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-18: Wednesday
Wednesday starts at 11am for us with Ulsan HD vs Kawasaki Frontale in AFC Champions League (Asia) and SkyBet offer 13/8 (2.63) about one or both of these sides keeping a clean-sheet.
Shanghai Port vs Johor DT in the AFC Champions League at 1pm. We're going with BTTS No and the Betfair Sportsbook's price of 6/4 (2.50).
Mid-afternoon we have a 3.30pm start when Bravo take on NK Krka in the Slovenia Cup and BetFred will give you 7/4 (2.75) about both teams scoring (BTTS Yes).
Later, 5pm sees Al Wakra vs Tractor, also in Asia, and that is a BTTS No type of game too, available to back at odds of 2.05 with WilliamHill.
At 6pm on Wednesday we will have some of the 11/8 (2.38) about BTTS No in the Swedish Superettan when Skovde AIK play Varberg. That is the price with BetfairSportsbook.
In the South African Premier League at 6.30pm, we take the Under 2.5 Goals odds of 11/10 (2.10) with SkyBet in the match between Orlando Pirates and Chippa Utd.
Brighton are playing Wolves at 7.45pm (EFL Cup) and SkyBet will give you 11/10 (2.10) for BTTS No in that game.
The Champions League game between Club Brugge KV and Dortmund is an 8pm kick-off and it is also SkyBet for this one. Their BTTS No price of 6/4 (2.50) is the bet in that game.
With both these last two games giving us bets on SkyBet, we will put them into a double that pays 5.25 decimal odds.
Ulsan HD vs Kawasaki Frontale
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.63
Result: Win
Shanghai Port vs Johor DT
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Loss
Bravo vs NK Krka
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Loss
Al Wakra vs Tractor
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.05
Result: Win
Skovde AIK vs Varberg
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.38
Result: Loss
Orlando Pirates vs Chippa Utd
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.10
Result: Loss
Brighton vs Wolves
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.10
Result: Loss
Club Brugge KV vsDortmund
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: ?
A SkyBet Double
Bet: BTTS No x BTTS No
Odds Available: 5.25
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-17: Tuesday
An 11am match on Tuesday has Yokohama F Marinos picked to beat Gwangju FC in Asia's AFC Champions League at odds of 2.95 (39/20) with Unibet.
Gwangju FC vs Yokohama F Marinos
Bet: Yokohama F Marinos to Win
Odds Available: 2.95
Result: Loss
On Tuesday night we return to the EFL Trophy and the Champions League.
Take Betfred's 11/8 odds (2.38) for at least one clean-sheet when Cambridge Utd and Charlton get going at 7pm in their EFL Trophy match.
Two more 7pm starts and two BTTS No bets with BetfairSportsbook; Newport vs West Ham U21 is the bet at 2.80 (EFL Trophy) and Tottenham U21 vs Valencia U21 is a value bet at their 2.75 odds (Premier League International Cup).
The 7:45pm kick-off is Colchester vs MK Dons and Bet365 make it a 5/4 shot (2.25) that at least one side will not score.
Cambridge Utd vs Charlton
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.38
Result: Loss
Newport vs West Ham U21
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.80
Result: Win
Tottenham U21 vs Valencia U21
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Loss
Colchester vs MK Dons
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.25
Result: Loss
Young Boys vs Aston Villa is a 5.45pm Champions League kick-off and we are taking the upset in this one; Young Boys to win at odds of 4/1 (5.00) with PaddyPower.
AC Milan and Liverpool will play at 8pm, also in the Champions League. BetVictor have the BTTS No at 29/20 (2.45) and that makes it a value selection in this clash-of-the-titans.
Similarly, Real Madrid vs Stuttgart (also at 8pm) looks destined for deadlock. We like the BTTS No at 6/5 (2.2) with WilliamHill and also the Under 2.5 Goals at 3.20 with Bet365.
We are supporting those two bets in the Real Madrid - Stuttgart game with a small Correct Score side-bet at the big-odds of 30/1 (31.0) that this ends in a goal-less stalemate.
Young Boys vs Aston Villa
Bet: Young Boys to Win
Odds Available: 5.00
Result: Loss
AC Milan vs Liverpool
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.45
Result: Loss
Real Madrid vs Stuttgart
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Loss
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.20
Result: Loss
Bet: Draw 0-0
Odds Available: 31.00
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-16: Monday
We are looking to build-back-better this week after a September to forget so far. Having picked an 18/1 side bet for Bournemouth to beat Chelsea 1-0 on Saturday evening, it was inevitable that they would be denied from the penalty spot - an opportunity that would have put them 1-0 up. September results have been horrific but we are still playing with the house's money; with a Return On Investment of 4% since these previews began in August. Enough of looking back, let's look forward... we've found some rather grubby stuff on Monday:
The week starts with a 0:00am kick-off on Monday morning with Argentina's Liga Profesional and a game between the Argentinos Jrs and the Newells Old Boys. We are going short-odds-on for this and backing BTTS No at 1.57 with WilliamHill.
Unibet are offering 3.30 odds for BTTS No stateside in the MLS Next Pro league match between Colorado Rapids II and Sporting Kansas City II. They start at 1:00am.
Back to WIlliamHill for the 2:00am clash in the Women's U20 World Cup (why not?). We like Over 3.5 Goals in the USA-Germany game, and 3.25 odds is the price we are looking for. In the same game, take the USA to win at 6/4 (2.50) that is currently available with the folk at Unibet.
Argentinos Jrs vs Newells Old Boys
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.57
Result: Win
Colorado Rapids II vs Sporting Kansas City II
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.30
Result: Win
USA U20 (W) vs Germany U20 (W)
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.25
Result: Loss
Bet: USA Win
Odds Available: 2.5
Result: Loss
After those early starts, there will be a 3:30pm game in the Norwegian 1st Division between Egersund and Ranheim. PaddyPower will give you 7/4 (2.75) about the BTTS No if you are that way inclined.
Stay with PaddyPower and the Icelandic Urvalsdeild match at 8:15pm; we expect at least one clean-sheet between Fylkir and Vikingur Reykjavik and would back the BTTS No at 2.88.
Since we are on PaddyPower for these two, we are also going to put them into a double that pays 7.92 decimal odds.
Egersund vs Ranheim
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Win
Fylkir vs Vikingur Reykjavik
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.88
Result: Win
A PaddyPower Double
Bet: BTTS No x BTTS No
Odds Available: 7.92
Result: Win
While we wait to see what happens with that double, there is a game in Norway's Division 2 at 4pm in which we will be taking BTTS Yes (Ladbrokes offer 2.70) and Under 3.5 Goals (BetVictor are 3.50). It's Stjordals-Blink vs Valerenga IF 2 for this one and since we like both of those positions we will back it up with a small side-bet on the Correct Score 1-1 Draw odds of 60/1 (61.00) with BetVictor.
At 7pm, it's over to Dutch Eerste Divisie for the Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch match and SkyBet's 11/8 (2.38) for BTTS No is the play there.
In FA Cup Qualification action, the Barwell-Buxton clash looks destined for at least one-clean sheet and the BTTS No offering is a 7/4 shot (2.75) with SkyBet.
Stjordals-Blink vsValerenga IF 2
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.70
Result: Loss
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.50
Result: Loss
Bet: Draw 1-1 Correct Score
Odds Available: 61.00
Result: Loss
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.38
Result: Win
Barwell vs Buxton
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-15: Sunday
In the early hours of Sunday morning there are three back-to-back Major League Soccer games in the US. We are taking the BTTS No in all three of these. At 0:30am (UK time), FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew will start a game in which we are taking the 7/4 (2.75) odds available. At 2:30am, you can get 21/10 (3.10) for the Colorado Rapids vs Portland Timbers game and then an hour later (3:30am), the LA clash between Galaxy and Los Angeles FC has 15/8 (2.88) on offer for at least one clean-sheet.
All three of these are with BetVictor.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Win
Colorado Rapids vs Portland Timbers
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.10
Result: Loss
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.88
Result: Loss
Some other selections for Sunday
Early morning:
Away from the MLS games, in the Mexican Liga MX 3:35am game between Club Leon and Cruz Azul, SkyBet are offering 6/5 odds (2.20) for at least one clean-sheet.
At 4am in Mexico's Liga MX Women's game between Tigres and Monterrey we are taking on BetfairSportbook's 3.30 odds about there being at least four goals in the game. We'll also support that with the Over 2.5 Goals at 1.88 with Unibet in the same match.
Club Leon vs Cruz Azul
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Loss
Tigres (W) vs Monterrey (W)
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.50
Result: Loss
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 1.88
Result: Loss
Mid-morning to lunch-time:
There are two bets with PaddyPower at 10:30am in the Estonian Esiliiga competition. The first one is Over 3.5 Goals at the short price of 1/2 (1.50) in the Paide Linnameeskond U21 vs Harju JK Laagri match. At the same time we are taking BTTS No in the FC Tallinn vs Levadia U21 game. PaddyPower offer odds of 2.88 for that one.
BetVictor are offering odds of 6/4 (2.50) for the BTTS No side of the argument in the Poland's Division 2 game at 11am featuring Zaglebie II and LKS Lodz II.
There's a Netherlands Eredivisie match at 11:15am between Sparta Rotterdam and GA Eagles with Unibet offering 7/5 odds (2.40) for the BTTS No which is our play there.
The German Regionalliga Northeast competition has a midday kick-off between FSV Zwickau and FC Eilenburg. Betfair's Sportsbook will give you 6/4 (2.50) odds about BTTS No in this one, a game that looks likely to go to the wire.
Also at midday, Unibet are offering 7/4 (2.75) odds for BTTS No for the Tulevik-Parnu match in the Esiliiga B league in Estonia.
Then there's a 12:30pm match between Parnu JK Vaprus and Nomme Kalju in Estonia's Premier League. BetfairSports offer odds of 2.88 for the Over 3.5 Goals line in that game.
There is another BTTS No of note available with William Hill when Werder Bremen II and Todesfelde play at 1pm in Germany's Regionalliga North competition. They make it a 2.62 shot and we make it a bet.
At 1.30pm, there is the chance for a 6/1 upset over a Sunday roast when Kotwica Kolobrzeg go up against Arka Gdynia in the Polish 1 Liga. These odds of 7.00 are with William Hill.
Paide Linnameeskond U21 vs Harju JK Laagri
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 1.50
Result: Win
FC Tallinn vs Levadia U21
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.88
Result: Loss
Zaglebie II vs LKS Lodz II
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Win
Sparta Rotterdam vs G.A. Eagles
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.40
Result: Loss
FSV Zwickau vs FC Eilenburg
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.50
Result: Loss
Tulevik vs Parnu
Bet: BTTS No
Result: Loss
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Loss
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme Kalju
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.88
Result: Win
Werder Bremen II vs Todesfelde
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: ?
Arka Gdynia vs Kotwica Kolobrzeg
Bet: Kotwica Kolobrzeg to Win
Odds Available: 7.00
Result: ?
____________________
2024-09-14 2000: Bournemouth vs Chelsea
Not much wrong with 1X2 prices ahead of tight Premier League encounter
With just a single point between these two, it's eighth-placed Bournemouth versus 11th-placed Chelsea in another eagerly anticipated mid-table Premier League fixture with primetime billing on Saturday night. SkyBet are going 11/5 (3.20) about Bournemouth in front of their home fans at the Vitality Stadium. They’ve got Chelsea as the even-money (2.00) favourites with the draw out at 14/5 (3.80).
Chelsea have a win, a loss, and a draw in the three opening matches of this season. Bournemouth have made a slightly better start to their unbeaten campaign with a win and two draws. The odds suggest that The Blues are set to put their shaky start to this new season behind them and leap-frog ahead of Bournemouth in the table standings come Sunday morning.
After a well-documented summer of transfer rumours, speculation, and confusion, Chelsea have stuttered under the guidance of Enzo Maresca during these early stages of their campaign. Their 6-2 drubbing by Wolves made headlines while they have also suffered a 2-0 reverse against Man City. They had to settle for a single point in a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace.
Meanwhile, The Cherries have impressed with a brace of 1-1 draws against Nottingham Forrest and then Newcastle. Notably they were unlucky not to collect all three points in that Newcastle game after Dango Ouattara’s stoppage-time header was overruled by VAR as a "factual handball".
With those solid foundations, they then produced that sensational come-from-behind win against Everton at Goodision Park. Andoni Iraola’s men were 2-0 down with three minutes left on the clock before Semenyo pulled one back in the 87th minute. Lewis Cook equalised five minutes later and then in the dying seconds Luis Sinisterr secured an extraordinary 3-2 win.
A few weeks on from that result and many a bettor’s pockets are still stinging. That result stole all the headlines, but it was no fluke. Despite looking certain to go down to a comfortable 2-0 loss away from home, The Cherries had the best of the possession (54%), they completed more passes and with better accuracy than Everon managed on their own paddock.
Bournemouth look set to start with Mark Travers in goal and he will likely be pivotal in the outcome of this one. The Cherries should not be underestimated on Saturday and at home they have been hard to break down. They have a 38% clean-sheet rate going back over their last 16 home games.
With Chelsea likely to be missing both Malo Gusto and Reece James, and question marks surrounding Cole Palmer, their even-money tag is one to be speculative about. This doesn’t look like a straightforward day at the office and it is possible Maresca will again be scratching his head come the final whistle.
We are giving Chelsea's 2.00 odds a wide-berth and will be taking the BTTS No with SkyBet available at 2/1 (3.00) and will be coupling that with a “fun” big-price side-bet on the Home Win 1-0 Correct Score that can be backed at a price of 18/1 (19.00) in some spots.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.00
Result: Win
Bet: Home Win 1-0
Odds Available: 19.00
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-14 0600: Oakleigh Cannons vs Macarthur FC
Oakleigh Cannons price looks a little big for Australia Cup clash
Macarthur FC are 1.70 favourites with Bet365 to beat Oakleigh Cannons down in the Australia Cup at 6am on Saturday morning. You can expect to see a decent contest between these sides but the visiting team cannot afford to take this challenge lightly. The home win feels like a good bet at 4.20. The draw is 4.33.
Oakleigh Cannons can take some reassurance from the results they've posted leading up to this game. They've chalked up seven wins in their last eight matches. Their opponents, despite their short price, have lost half of their last ten matches (home and away). That doesn't look like the recent record of a side that would be as short as 1.70.
Oakleigh Cannons are in some good form and have scored at least three times in thirteen of their recent 18 home matches. They have been able to consolidate that goal-mouth prowess at the back too, where they have conceded no more than once in each of their last nine games.
Meanwhile, there have been performances where Macarthur FC have lost their shape and at times they have lacked the fundamentals to stand up to pressure. That has manifested itself in a stat that shows they have conceded at least three goals in 60% their last 10 matches.
It could be close-but-no-cigar for the unfancied Cannons but they might get this done and the 4.20 is our play. It will depend on how they adapt to a superior calibre of opposition. The hosts have made moves to bridge the gap between them and their rivals on their own soil and if they can grow into the match then they can perhaps pile on the pressure in the second half and nick an unlikely win. That is why we will also be having the small bet on the Correct Score market for a 1-0 Oakleigh Cannons win at odds of 18/1 (19.00), also with Bet365.
Bet: Oakleigh Cannons to Win
Odds Available: 4.20
Result: Loss
Bet: Home Win 1-0
Odds Available: 19.00
Result: Loss
Other Saturday selections
The weekend starts at half-past-midnight on Friday night with a Colombian Primera-A match involving Jaguares de Cordoba and Envigado. Betfair Sport offer 1.87 for at least one of these sides keeping a clean-sheet in this.
At 1am, in the Argentinian Primera-B Nacional, Estudiantes Rio Cuarto will play Temperley and Under 1.5 Goals at 2.10 with PaddyPower is the pick.
There will be a 9am match in the Premier League in Hong Kong (Tai Po vs Lee Man) and you can get 2.62 odds for BTTS No in that one with William Hill.
Saturday's 11am game is over to the Portuguese Segunda Liga for Felgueiras vs Chaves and BTTS No at 2.10 (11/10) with Betfair Sportsbook is worthy of attention as it looks more likely than the implied probability suggests.
Mid-afternoon in Iceland's Division 1 there is a game at 3pm between Keflavik and Fjolnir with a bet for us available with SkyBet. They go 4/5 (1.80) for Under 3.5 Goals and that is our play over there.
At 7pm there is a BTTS Yes bet with Betfair Sportsbook offering even-money (2.00) in a Saudi Professional League game featuring Al Riyadh and Al Hilal.
Jaguares de Cordoba vs Envigado
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.87
Result: Loss
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Temperley
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.10
Result: Win
Tai Po vs Lee Man
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Loss
Felgueiras vs Chaves
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.10
Result: Loss
Keflavik vs Fjolnir
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 1.80
Result: Loss
Al Riyadh vs Al Hilal
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.00
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-13 1235: Friday
Zhejiang vs Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua are a shade odds-on in their trip to Zhejiang Professional (Greentown) on Friday lunchtime (UK time) for this Chinese Super League clash at the Hangzhou Dragon Stadium. PaddyPower make them 19/20 (1.95) with the hosts 11/5 (3.20) at time of writing. Zhejiang have two wins from the last five matches against Shanghai Shenhua but the visitors are confident away from home, having kept a clean-sheet in 13 of their recent 18 away matches (72%).
Historically this is not a match with goals from both ends of the park - nine of the latest 14 (64%) have seen the BTTS No end up being the right side to be on. With odds of 3.20 available on that market with PaddyPower, that is the way we’ll be playing this one.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.20
Result: Loss
Elsewhere on Friday the 13th...
A 1:45 in the AM kick-off gets Friday started with the "Yes" side of the BTTS offering with Betfair Sportsbook in the Brazilian Cup game featuring Atletico MG and Sao Paulo. The 2.45 odds for both sides having success on goal is the bet in what looks like an even contest with plenty to play for after their first leg (Atletico MG won 1-0).
We've found a game in India where both teams look well-matched and it could result in a large goal tally once they get underway at 3pm. BetVictor is offering odds for this game between Mohun Bagan and Mumbai City in their Super League and 21/10 (3.10) is available for Over 3.5 Goals.
In the German Bundesliga 2 game at 5:30pm, again with our friends at PaddyPower and their "Both Teams To Score" offering, take the 7/4 odds (2.75) for the "No" side of the market in the Preussen Munster vs Paderborn match.
At 6pm SkyBet have a game in the Sweden Superettan with Ostersund and Helsingborg picked to have at least one clean-sheet between them; BTTS No at odds of 2.38 (11/8).
For our final match on Friday we look to the Premier Leauge in Wales at 7:45pm when we expect goals from both teams in the match between Bala and Aberystwyth. BetVictor make it 29/20 (2.45) for "BTTS Yes" and that makes it a bet for us.
Atletico MG vs Sao Paulo
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.45
Result: Loss
Mohun Bagan and Mumbai City
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.10
Result: Win
Preussen Munster vs Paderborn
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Loss
Ostersund vs Helsingborg
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.38
Result: Win
Bala vs Aberystwyth
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.45
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-12: Thursday
Some value on offer for later in the week
Those 1.50 odds for the Wednesday night game are not for everyone, but there is some value to be had in the 4.33 odds (10/3 fractional) for Under 1.5 Goals in the Tulsa Roughnecks vs Las Vegas Lights match in the USL Championship at 1:30am on Thursday.
Cartagena vs Atletico F.C. kicks off at the same time in Colombia and SkyBet are offering 6/4 (2.50) for the Under 2.5 Goals line. If you don't mind a short-price favourite, the 1.30 (3/10) for Cartagena with Unibet and a few other firms is a play that we will be making. [Match abandoned]
10.30am sees a game down-under with BTTS No available at 3.40 at SkyBet when Adelaide Utd take on Western Sydney Wanderers in the Australia Cup.
At 11am in South Korea's WK Women's league, both Gyeongju and Changnyeong can be backed to score at 7/4 (2.75) with BetVictor.
At 2pm on Thursday, Dodoma Jiji play Namungo in the Tanzania Premier League. No more than one goal in the game can be backed at 2.37 with WilliamHill.
Update: Having taken the odds-against that was available for Under 1.5 Goals, this game opened up with a goal just a few seconds after the first whistle. Somehow they held on to this score for the full 90 minutes.
The 4.30pm kick-off on Thursday is over in Finland in the match between JaPS-47 and MyPa. Go to Betfair Sportsbook for 3.20 odds for the BTTS No in this one.
SkyBet currently offer 10/3 (4.33) about Under 1.5 Goals in an Israeli Ligat Leumit game at 5pm when Hapoel Ramat Gan and Hapoel Kfar Shalem get underway.
There's a Premier League International Cup game at 7pm when the U21 sides of Blackburn and Olympique Lyonnais will likely be involved in a close match where the BTTS No is the pick of the value at 2.88 (15/8) with PaddyPower.
PaddyPower also offer a BTTS No bet in the Ayacucho vs San Marcos game with a 9pm kick-off in Peru's Liga 2 Championship Group. Their 6/5 (2.20) is worth taking.
Tulsa Roughnecks vs Las Vegas Lights
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 4.33
Result: Loss
Adelaide United vs WS Wanderers
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.40
Result: Loss
Gyeongju (W) vs Changnyeong (W)
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Loss
Dodoma Jiji vs Namungo
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.37
Result: Win
JaPS-47 vs MyPa
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.20
Result: Win
Hapoel Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 4.33
Result: Loss
Blackburn U21 vs Olympique Lyonnais U21
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.88
Result: Win
Ayacucho vs San Marcos
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.20
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-11: Wednesday
Early start for midweek EV
Some +EV highlights from the matches scheduled for Wednesday 11th September.
Honduras vs Jamaica will be a 3am start (UK time) on Wednesday morning and Unibet will give you odds of 2.60 for more than two goals in that one. Early evening the same day has TVD Velbert vs SV Biemenhorst in the German Oberliga and it is BTTS No at 2.88 with BetfairSportsbook that is catching the eye. While we are on this match, it is worth a quick jump over to PaddyPower and take the 8/5 (2.60 decimal) they are offering for SV Biemenhorst to win the game.
If you're looking for an interest in the Costa Rican Primera Division clash between Herediano and San Carlos, also at 3am, you could do worse things than take SkyBet's BTTS No price of 2.25 (5/4 fractional).
Wednesday afternoon's 4pm kick-off is in Czech Republic with a BTTS No bet of 2.75 offered in the FC Zbrojovka Brno B vs FK Blansko match. Go to Betfair Sportsbook for this one. Half an hour before they get underway, Gaj Mace and Varazdin will play in Croatia (3.30pm Wednesday) and the BTTS Yes at 2.55 is the bet. Also with BetfairSportsbook.
BetVictor have a 4pm MOL Cup kick-off in Czech Republic and we are picking Police nad Metuji to beat Chlumec nad Cidlinou at their price of 17/4 (5.25).
In Argentina's Primera-B league, Argentino de Quilmes play Sportivo Italiano with a 7pm kick-off and we are backing the Under 2.5 Goals at the maybe-not-attractive 2s-on price (1.50) offered by William Hill.
The final game on Wednesday is the 11:30pm kick-off in the third tier of US soccer, when Carolina Core take on Philadelphia Union II in the MLS Next Pro league. BTTS No at 2/1 (3.00) with BetVictor is the call there.
Honduras vs Jamaica
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.60
Result: Win
Herediano vs San Carlos
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.25
Result: Loss
Gaj Mace vs Varazdin
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.55
Result: Win
Brno B vs Blansko
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.75
Result: Win
Police nad Metuji vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Bet: Police nad Metuji to Win
Odds Available: 5.25
Update: a 16th-minute goal from the spot-kick puts Police ahead and they are into even-money (2.00) with BetVictor:
An hour later and a second goal puts Police 2-0 up with half an hour left to play and BetVictor now makes them 1/20 (1.05) favourites.
Result: Win
TVD Velbert vs SV Biemenhorst
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.88
Result: Loss
Bet: SV Biemenhorst to Win
Odds Available: 2.60
Update: Good start to this one as SVB take the lead after 13 minutes and PaddyPower shorten their odds to 4/6 (1.67 decimal) favourites. Long way to go still.
Result: Loss
Argentino de Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 1.50
Result: Win
Carolina Core vs Philadelphia Union II
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 3.00
Result: Win
____________________
2024-09-10: Tuesday
There's some BTTS going about today...
Rather than deep-dive into each match, here are a few +EV highlights from some of the games happening on Tuesday 10th September.
Both of these are with the Betfair Sportsbook. You can get 2.88 about BTTS Yes in the Moldova vs San Marino match at 5pm. A few hours later Chile take on Bolivia and you can get 1.62 for BTTS No in that game, with the same firm. Both of these have strong +EV on our side.
In the UEFA Nations League Ireland are playing Greece at 7.45pm and a low-scoring affair is the call. SkyBet offer 2.62 about Under 1.5 Goals in that one.
Moldova vs San Marino
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.88
Result: Loss
Chile vs Bolivia
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.62
Result: Loss
Ireland vs Greece
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-10 1945: Hitchin vs Bishop's Stortford
Hitchin unlikely to produce fireworks
After a weekend of mixed fortunes, near-misses, a few good bets and some outright bad ones, we are looking for a turnaround as this new week gets underway and we’ve picked some lower-league English football down-south to begin the rebound.
With Hitchin goalless in 12 from 16 and this Bishop’s Stortford side not scoring in 10 of their last 18, this doesn't look, on paper, like a match that will deliver plentiful scoring chances.
A lacklustre Bishop’s Stortford goal-tally has resulted in them being on the wrong side of the result in 13 of their last 14 away games. They have scored only five times in their last 13 away games now and their odds-on price approaching 2/1-on is one to avoid.
However, they are looking for a third consecutive win here on Tuesday and it seems unlikely Hitchin will prevent them from achieving that. We think The Bishops can keep the hosts honest at Top Field and at odds-against (5/4), the No side of the Both Teams To Score market is a bet worth considering. If they fail to deliver on their short-price favouritism, then this bet will have us covered.
Hitchin come into this game having scored a maximum of one goal in 16 of their last 18 matches. With eight consecutive defeats, they can be backed at 10/3, with the draw 3/1. None of these 1X2 prices are worth looking at, but the BTTS No price of 2.25 with Betfred will be our play in this Southern League Premier Central Division clash.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.25
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-09 1900: Lesotho vs Morocco
Africa Cup of Nations qualification
Although Morocco have already secured a spot in the 2025 CAF Africa Cup of Nations as the host country, they continue to participate in the qualifiers. They opened with a commanding penalty-filled 4-1 victory over Gabon on Friday, while Lesotho struggled in their first match, falling 3-1 to the Central African Republic a day earlier.
Barely inside FIFA’s top-150, Lesotho is not a side we would normally go out of our way to watch and by all accounts they were lucky to keep that defeat to CAR on Thursday to just a 2-goal margin. With no injuries or suspensions to contend with and without the luxury of a deep bench, they are likely to stick with the same starting lineup for this.
Meanwhile Morocco, who finished fourth in the 2022 World Cup, were impressive according to the scouts who witnessed their four-goal haul on Friday. The betting is predictably lop-sided with the 1X2 offering prices around 22/1 Lesotho, 6/1 the Draw and 1/12 Morocco.
Morocco have a deep pool of players that they can switch in for this match that has been priced-up as if it was a training-ground routine walk-in-the-park for them. In front of their own fans at the Adrar Stadium and with no pressure to qualify, an outclassed opposition, and coming off a decent result just days before this one, it feels like the type of game in which they may experiment with tactics and formation. In such clashes, it is not unusual for the unlikely underdog to have some success against the overwhelming odds.
Lesotho have found the back of the net in their last four starts. They might just spoil the party and share the spoils. A correct score price of 18/1 is available for a 1-1 draw but we won’t be going for that.
Instead we are taking the BTTS Yes at 3.30 with betway, for some unlikely headlines near the Atlas Mountains on Monday night. Those odds suggest there is a 30% chance of goals from both teams. Our data says it is greater than that.
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 3.30
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-08 2000: Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia y Tiro
No guarantee of goals in Primera Nacional
It’s fourth (home) versus sixth place (away) in Argentina’s Primera Nacional on Sunday night and there’s plenty to play for with just three points between them.
Neither side will want to let this one go and it's destined to be a game or very small margins. We expect this to be settled by just a single goal. Gimnasia Jujuy are given around a 45% chance of prevailing according to the latest betting odds. Part of that is due to the fact that they’ve not given away any more than a single goal in any of their last twenty home matches.
Similarly, Gimnasia y Tiro (around a 20% chance of winning) have only conceded nine times over their last 18 matches which is a respectable number. On the flip-side they have not exactly had recent opposition quaking in their boots; they’ve been unable to score more than a single goal in all of their last twenty away games.
The BTTS No is down at 1.40 in some places and that will also be a winning bet if our Under 1.5 Goals pick is correct. But 1.40 (2/5) makes that a very unattractive bet. The Draw is 2/1 (3.00) and that warrants further consideration for sure. But it hasn't made the cut for this preview.
We expect another tight one on Sunday night and have taken the 1.95 odds available with bwin for fewer than two goals.
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 1.95
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-08 1945: Sweden vs Estonia
Nations League game looks like a mismatch on paper
We go to Stockholm’s Strawberry Arena (Nationalarenan) for this UEFA Nations League second-round game between Sweden and Estonia. Straight off the bat, we are going with both sides to have success in a game that has only a 33% chance of goals from both teams according to the odds available with Bet365.
Following their 1-0 defeat to Slovakia in their opening game, Estonia looks set to make some changes in attack, with Ioan Yakovlev potentially being promoted from the bench to strengthen their forward line. They will still be without Maksim Paskotsi at the back; he sustained an injury while on club duty a few weeks ago.
In terms of recent goal stats, Estonia have conceded 32 times in their last 17. Sweden are 22 from 12 in that same stat. The hosts have scored 17 goals in their last 8 games for a 2.1 average, their impressive 3-1 deconstruction of Azerbaijan on Thursday helping support that trend. Alexander Isak scored a 5-minute brace in that one, midway through the second half.
Estonia meanwhile are in a patch of plentiful goals too, even if results are not going their way. If they fall short on Sunday it will be their tenth away trip in a row without a win. They are available at a huge 35/1 to prevent that milestone from happening. Sweden are an unbackable 1/10.
It is very hard to see anything but a Sweden win but we cannot pull the trigger on those 1.10 odds. We are going against the grain and taking the BTTS Yes with Bet365 at 3.00. It has been the winner in 5 of Estonia’s recent 7 games away from home.
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 3.00
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-08 0200: Colorado Springs vs Tampa Bay
Impossible to separate teams in USL Championship; draw on the Colorado cards
This is a coin-flip of a match at the Switchbacks Stadium (Colorado Springs) with both sides available to back at 6/4 against (2.50). All results are possible here and the draw is a genuine contender at 3.30.
There's very little distance between Colorado Springs and Tampa Bay in the USL Championship. The hosts are in fifth place with 38 points, compared to their opponents who reside in third place on 43 points.
Building on the strong rearguard performances of both sides, a goalless stalemate might be a sensible call at a decent price but it's certainly not something to go crazy about. Both teams are impressive at the back. Colorado Springs have only let in three goals during their last 6 matches and Tampa Bay have been impressive defensively on the road.
They’ve drawn 6 of their last 15 away matches and with such a fine margin between the two sides, the feeling is this also ends in parity. If pushed, I’d take the 0-0 Correct Score odds of 12.00 if I was going to the game. But I’m not. So it's the BTTS No available with betway at odds of 2.25 (5/4 fractional).
Tampa Bay are coming into this one off a 2-0 win against Miami FC, but Colorado have really not been easy to break down of late.
The game could go any way and the sportsbooks have the BTTS Yes as odds-on, supporting the idea that both teams can be dangerous in possession and that the match is there for the taking. But with the odds-against price on BTTS No we are covering several outcomes that we like the look of in this one, and that has more appeal to us for this particular Colorado encounter.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.25
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-07 1900: Almagro vs Atletico Atlanta
Expect goals from both sides in a close Primera Nacional clash
Neither of these sides could be described as a stranger-to-stalemate and at the 10/1 odds (11.00) for a 1-1 scoreline, that cannot be written off here. It isn't the most exciting thing you'll read this week and it feels like a match to be circumspect about. The BTTS Yes (“Both Teams To Score”) market is available to back at 2.62 with bet365 and that has been highlighted as the +EV bet for this second-tier clash of Argentine football.
Almagro are playing an open brand of football at the moment which has led them to concede goals in all of their recent five matches. Over the same period, Atletico Atlanta have been scoring freely; now up to five consecutive games with success in front of goal. This will be a decent match-up and the betting in the 1X2 couldn’t be much closer. Implied probabilities are:
- Almagro 31%
- Draw 35%
- CA Atlanta 34%
These two sides have shared the spoils in two of their last four meetings, and all eventualities are possible here. Do your due diligence before making your mind up.
Despite the fact that both teams have scored in two of the last three H2H matches between these two, the sportsbooks think that only one side will present a threat on goal. The match is likely to be nip-n-tuck given how close the 1X2 betting is, but in the BTTS market the Yes option must not be ruled out. It is more likely than the 2.62 odds imply.
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-07 0030: South America; World Cup Qualifier preview
Uruguay vs Paraguay
Uruguay will host Paraguay at the Estadio Centenario first thing on Saturday morning UK-time in a South American World Cup qualifier. The hosts start as strong favourites in this match against their nearly-neighbours. Only a thousand kilometers separates the two countries, but the bookmakers have them further apart than that. That metaphor is doing some heavy-lifting to explain that Uruguay are close to 1/2 favourites with Paraguay available at over 5/1. These odds suggest a 65% probability of winning for the favourites versus approximately 15% for the underdogs.
Uruguay, under Marcelo Bielsa since May 2023, have experienced a resurgence after their disappointing group-stage exit in the 2022 World Cup. Bielsa has led the team to a third-place finish in the 2024 Copa America and has lost only 5 of his 19 matches in charge. Uruguay excelled in the Copa America group stages and even defeated Brazil on penalties in the quarterfinals. However, they fell short in the semifinals, losing 1-0 to Colombia despite dominating possession.
The upcoming match will be significant as it marks the final international game for Uruguay's all-time leading goalscorer, Luis Suarez. Suarez, who recently announced his retirement from international football, is expected to start. You can back him to score from outside the box at 11/1 with Bet365. We don’t track that data so that's not a bet for us, but it would be a fitting swansong for Suarez to go out in style with a screamer.
Uruguay are unbeaten in their last four matches, while Paraguay are struggling offensively, going goalless in five of their last six games. In their recent H2H encounters, Uruguay has dominated, winning two of the last three meetings including a 1-0 victory in their most recent clash. Given the form and historical advantage, Uruguay correctly enter the match as decent favorites with aspirations of strengthening their position in the World Cup qualifiers.
They deserve their favouritism but being a strong favourite doesn’t always translate to an increased margin of victory. It will not be a surprise to see a repeat scoreline of their previous match, but at odds of 5/1 for 1-0 in the Correct Score market, that is a little too skinny. We are taking the 3.40 odds available with Bet365 that there will be fewer than two goals in the game as the best way of getting some value here.
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.40
Result: Win
____________________
2024-09-06 1700: UEFA Nations League
Lithuania vs Cyprus
Cyprus travel to Kaunas to face Lithuania for the opening day of the new UEFA Nations League campaign on Friday. It’s a 5pm kick-off and if this one lands it could be a great start to the weekend. I’ve just seen the Women’s Champions League qualifying result on Wednesday morning so I’m ready for a change of fortune after that horror-show of a prediction. If you missed that one, congratulations. If you want to see it, check the results page.
Let’s move on.
Lithuania are favoured at around 2.30, the draw site at 3.00, with Cyprus around the Cyprus 3.30 area.
Both of these sides have struggled to find the back of the net recently, making a low-scoring match the expected outcome for their upcoming clash in Round 1. However, betting odds can sometimes stray from the obvious, and this match is a prime example of that. Instead of betting on a low-scoring game, I'm looking at Betfair Sportsbook’s 4/1 (5.00) odds for more than three goals, which seems like a good value pick.
A crucial statistic shared by both teams is their defensive frailty, with each side conceding an average of 1.7 goals per match over their last ten games. Lithuania, ranked 135th in the FIFA world rankings, and Cyprus, ranked 127th, are close in standing, highlighting how evenly matched they are on paper.
Lithuania had a difficult Nations League campaign but showed some resilience in the Euro 2024 qualification, achieving notable victories over Gibraltar and only suffering a narrow defeat in the Baltic Cup. This resurgence might give them a slight psychological edge heading into this game.
On the other hand, Cyprus had a disastrous Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, losing all eight matches and finishing with a goal difference of -25 in the negative. They continued their poor form with a loss to Moldova in early June, and a subsequent 4-1 victory over San Marino did little to alleviate the pressure on them. More concerning is their away record; Cyprus hasn't won a competitive away match since 2019 against Kazakhstan, losing 14 out of 17 away games since then. They have also conceded three or more goals in 80% of their last ten matches, a statistic that indicates their vulnerability.
Given these factors, picking a winner in the 1X2 market seems a challenging task, reflected in the current betting lines. The uncertainty and inconsistent performances from both sides suggest that the match could go either way. That's why I'm placing my bet on a high goal total, banking on the 4/1 odds for four or more goals. This game might not appeal to purists, but with both teams likely to play with nerves and defensive lapses, a higher-scoring game is a possibility worth considering.
While the match might not feature football at its finest, the potential for an unexpected goal fest makes it an intriguing proposition for bettors looking for value. It’s certainly not as unlikely as the 5.00 odds suggest.
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 5.00
Result: Loss
____________________
2024-09-06 0100: South America; World Cup Qualifiers preview
Argentina vs Chile
In the early hours of Friday, Argentina will face Chile in a World Cup qualifier at Estadio Mas Monumental in Buenos Aires. As reigning world champions, Argentina are the favorites, with odds as low as 1/3. Under Lionel Scaloni’s leadership, they have been almost unbeatable, with only two losses in 62 matches since July 2019. Scaloni boasts a 71% win rate and has guided Argentina to three consecutive major tournament victories. They have made a solid start to the CONMEBOL qualifying campaign for the 2026 World Cup, looking set to continue their successful run.
Argentina's dominance
Argentina’s track record speaks for itself. Their only qualifying defeat came at the hands of Uruguay last year in a 2-0 loss, a rare slip in an otherwise dominant run. With a 70% clean-sheet rate in their last 20 games, Argentina’s defense is formidable, and their ability to keep opponents from scoring is well-documented. Given their current form, Argentina is well-positioned to maintain their lead in the qualifying table and secure a spot in the next World Cup.
Chile's struggles in qualifying
Chile, on the other hand, continue to struggle to find rhythm. Their last World Cup appearance was in 2014, and they have not started well in this qualifying round. With just one win in their first six matches (a 2-0 victory over Peru) they have otherwise been inconsistent, losing three and drawing two. Most recently, they suffered a 1-0 defeat to Ecuador in November. This poor form is compounded by their inability to find the net, as they have failed to score in their last six matches. In their last 20 matches, the "Both Teams to Score: No" bet has won in 85% of cases, highlighting their struggles in attack.
Betting insights
Given these trends, betting against both teams scoring seems a solid choice. Bet365 offers odds of 1.57 for "BTTS No," which appears justified given Argentina's defensive strength and Chile’s offensive woes. Argentina coming through this match without conceding seems likely, making it the favoured bet for this encounter.
In conclusion, I expect Argentina to dominate this qualifier against a Chilean side that has been struggling for form and goals. With Argentina’s solid defensive record and Chile’s recent scoring difficulties, the odds favour a win for Argentina without conceding and while the 1.57 will not appeal to all readers, it has made the grade for me.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.57
Result: Win
____________________
2024-09-05 1945: UEFA Nations League preview
Denmark vs Switzerland
It’s a 19:45 kick-off on Thursday and with both sides harbouring genuine motivation for an opening victory here, I am expecting an entertaining draw, in what is sure to be a closely-fought encounter in front of a full-house at Copenhagen’s Parken Stadium. The last time these two met the match ended in a stalemate and I think they will be sharing the points again. I am picking the Draw at 3.25 with bwin.
Denmark's transition period
Denmark enters this match in a state of transition. Following their round-of-16 exit at Euro 2024 and a 2-0 loss to hosts Germany, long-serving manager Kasper Hjulmand stepped down. The interim coach, Lars Knudsen, currently an assistant at Augsburg, has the task of reshaping the team’s approach. Under Hjulmand’s leadership, Denmark enjoyed a successful period with a 60% win rate over 55 matches. However, the team now faces a period of adjustment and rebuilding.
Historically, Denmark has had the upper hand in head-to-head matches against Switzerland, remaining unbeaten over their last five encounters spanning 26 years, with two wins and three draws. The most recent clash between these teams ended in a lackluster 0-0 draw in Copenhagen, further suggesting that a tightly contested match could be on the cards.
Switzerland's stability
Switzerland, on the other hand, has enjoyed greater continuity with Murat Yakin still at the helm after a commendable Euro 2024 campaign. The Swiss team made a significant impact by knocking out Italy in the round-of-16 and only fell to England in the quarter-finals after a penalty shootout. Switzerland is known for being a tough side to beat, and they have demonstrated strong defensive resilience.
However, the team is undergoing its own set of changes. Notably, veteran goalkeeper Yann Sommer retired from international duty following Euro 2024, paving the way for Gregor Kobel to take over as Switzerland’s new number one. Despite this, Switzerland's squad remains strong, and they are expected to present a formidable challenge to Denmark.
Betting insights
With both teams not scoring freely in their recent matches, the odds for Under 2.5 Goals are currently odds-on with the sportsbooks. However, betting on a draw could offer better value. The odds for a draw stand at 9/4 (3.25) with bwin, making it an appealing option given the historical record between the two sides and their current form.
Denmark, playing at home, is slightly favored with bwin offering 5/4 odds for their win, while Switzerland is priced at 11/5. Despite Denmark's home advantage, the game is expected to be balanced, with neither team showing a distinct edge over the other. Both sides failed to advance beyond the group stage in the previous Nations League edition, adding extra motivation for a strong start in this campaign.
Given the form and circumstances surrounding both teams, a draw seems like a plausible outcome. With the home advantage and recent changes in management, Denmark will be eager to prove themselves, while Switzerland's consistency under Yakin will be key. This clash should again be closely fought and provide plenty of entertainment for the neutrals, with a draw appearing to be the most sensible prediction for anyone looking for an interest from the 1X2 market.
Bet: Draw
Odds Available: 3.25
Result: Loss
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2024-09-05 1945: UEFA Nations League preview
San Marino vs Liechtenstein
This is also a 19:45 kick-off and an entirely different contest to the Denmark-Switzerland affair taking place at the same time.
San Marino have conceded 74 times in their last 20 matches and half of those matches have had 4 or more goals. In particular, the UEFA Nations League has proven to be a challenging competition for them, to say the least, since it began six years ago. They are yet to get a win after 12 attempts.
In fact, across all competitions, neither of these sides has a Win in their recent combined 12 matches. San Marino have one draw (impressively keeping Romania honest with a 0-0 draw a few months ago) against five losses. Liechtenstein have two draws versus four losses in their last six. And that actually gives them some semblance of optimism. Avoiding defeat in two of their last three games is an achievement in itself. They did this on the back of a 24-game losing streak stretching back over three years. San Marino do not have a single win in 136 games of competition-level football.
These two minnows of world football have reason to put on a show. It might not be the low-scoring affair that many will be anticipating. Both teams will be eager to secure a rare victory in competitive action as they face off at Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle.
The odds for four or more goals have drifted somewhat since the market opened. It is now a too-good-to-ignore 7.00 (6/1) with Betvictor. We could have egg on our faces with this one, but we will be cheering on the goals.
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 7.00
Result: Loss
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2024-09-04 1600: Bohumin vs Prostejov
Massive MOL Cup favourites might take their foot off the gas in Czech Republic mismatch
Not a tremendous spread of football betting value on offer on Tuesday so we've ended up in the MOL Cup.
On their own turf, Bohumin should expect extended periods of play without possession, that much is true. But Prostejov have sometimes misfired with their chances in front of goal and they may settle for a comfortable, if not extravagant, performance against a level of opposition they don’t fear.
The visitors are 1/25 favourites to secure the win at the intimate Stadion Bohumin venue.
They can win in second-gear and if they do so, the Under 3.5 Goals bet at 2.62 with Bet365 might look good in retrospect. The Under side of this 3.5 goal line has been the right side to be on in eight of Prostejov's recent nine matches and in 13 of Bohumin's latest 18 matches. That is one more reason why we are going with it again on Tuesday afternoon.
In Prostejov’s last eight away matches, they’ve have been unable to find the target in four games (50%). They’ve also kept a clean sheet in four of those trips away (50%). They are expected to win at a canter, but this might just lead to a complacency that is not reflected in current prices in the total goals line.
During Bohumin’s last eleven home matches, ten of them have seen them concede no more than one time in the game.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Win
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2024-09-04 1000: Women's Champions League qualifying
Get ready for a rout?
Women’s Premier Division (Ireland) champions Peamount United will take on Belarus’ Dinamo Minsk (FK Dinamo BGU) when they return to the European stage in round one of Women’s Champions League qualifying on Wednesday morning.
Dinamo Minsk have a 90% win-rate over their latest twenty matches. You only have to go back 16 matches to see this group of players get to a century of goals. That's an average of 6.3 goals per match over their last 16 starts.
Based in Minsk, they secured their fourth successive league title last season and they’re a force to be reckoned with, rightfully installed as short-priced favourites.
It will be almost exactly one year to the day since they crushed Anina-SS Anenii Noi 9-zip in the same opening stage of this tournament. Ksenia Kubichnaya with the hat-trick in that one, a game in which more than half of the starting-11 hit the net.
We are looking for history to repeat itself with a similar team-wide performance from numbers 1-to-11 and will be taking the clean-sweep of markets. Shop around and you should find at least these prices listed. I've also gone for the big odds in the Correct Score market where 4-0 and 5-0 are available at 20/1 and 40/1 respectively.
Bet: FK Dinamo BGU Win
Odds Available: 1.53
Result: Loss
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 1.83
Result: Loss
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.20
Result: Loss
Bet: FK Dinamo BGU Win 4-0
Odds Available: 21.00
Result: Loss
Bet: FK Dinamo BGU Win 5-0
Odds Available: 41.00
Result: Loss
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2024-09-03 1900: Wigan Athletic vs. Morecambe EFL Trophy Clash
Keep the Champagne Supernova on ice
Wigan Athletic and Morecambe are desperate for a turnaround as they prepare for their EFL Trophy clash at the Brick Community Stadium. Both teams have had disappointing starts to the 2024-25 season, with Wigan’s hopes of returning to the upper tiers of English football already looking bleak. Head coach Shaun Maloney could be forgiven for having a face that looks like he’s been trying to get some decent Oasis tickets.
Meanwhile The Shrimps sit at the bottom of the table as a result of being scoreless in their last five games. In fact if you combine Wigan Athletic and Morecambe’s ten recent matches across all competitions, only The Latics have a win. The other nine results are in the “L” column.
When there is an apparent gulf in class, games can take an unpredictable turn. So regardless of the short Wigan price - they are odds-on everywhere - hold your horses if you think this match is a foregone conclusion. Instead, we envisage another lacklustre 90-minutes so we won't be looking back in anger when this one ends with at least one side keeping a clean-sheet. Betway give us 2.10 for the BTTS No.
Bet: BTTS No
Odds Available: 2.10
Update: We saw the warning signs in the short odds-on Wigan price. Now we just need to hold on to this score but it is going to get bumpy...
Result: Loss
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2024-09-03 1900: Leyton Orient vs Arsenal U21
Upset in the offing; Arsenal U21 to shine
Tonight at Brisbane Road, Leyton Orient face the Arsenal Under-21 squad in the EFL Trophy group stage and I’m taking a look at one of the derivative markets for this one. Leyton Orient, currently dwelling at the bottom of League One, have had a poor record in this competition, making a standout performance seem less likely than their 1.72 Betfair Exchange price would imply.
This game offers a chance for the young Arsenal squad to gain valuable experience and possibly excel in a winnable group that also includes MK Dons and Colchester.
Last season, Arsenal U21 advanced after beating Swindon and Exeter, only losing to Reading, while Leyton Orient finished last in their group with Gillingham, Fulham U21, and Portsmouth.
With Arsenal U21 being the big-priced outsiders there could be value in what is an unpredictable contest. The young-gunners have kicked off the season in style, winning all three of their Premier League 2 matches and scoring eleven goals, putting them at the top of the table. With confidence high, it will be intriguing to see how the team fares against The Os.
Arsenal U21 have won five of their last six games while scoring at least two goals in all of their latest nine matches. At home, Leyton Orient have lost three of their last four matches, while also conceding goals in all of their recent seven home matches.
If you look around you can get 10/1 odds that Arsenal U21s get the win without conceding. It might be a long-shot, but it is one that makes plenty of sense at the price.
Bet: Away Win-To-Nil
Odds Available: 11.00
Update: Arsenal U21 have just taken the lead, 1-0 after 3 minutes. This could be a long 90 mins from here...
Result: Loss
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2024-09-02 1930: Talleres vs All Boys
I'm expecting a high-scoring clash in Argentina
Recent Trends Point to Goals Galore
As Talleres prepare to face All Boys in this Primera Nacional match in Argentina, recent statistics suggest that the game could be filled with goals. Three or more goals have been scored in the last three consecutive away matches played by All Boys, indicating a trend toward high-scoring affairs when they play on the road. Similarly, Talleres have conceded at least three goals in four of their last ten matches. Moreover, Talleres have managed to score a whopping FORTY goals in their last 20 home matches. This offensive prowess, coupled with All Boys' tendency to concede, sets the stage for a potentially high-scoring game.
The likelihood of a goal-heavy match is further supported by the fact that Talleres have had over 2.5 goals scored in eight of their last 12 matches. With Bet365 offering odds of 3.50 (5/2 in fractional) for Over 2.5 Goals, this bet presents a valuable opportunity for punters looking to capitalize on recent form.
Analyzing the Potential Outcomes
Despite the high potential for goals, it isn't easy to predict in terms of the final result. Both teams have shown inconsistencies, with Talleres drawing eight of their last 17 matches and All Boys drawing six of their last 18 away matches. The recent 1-1 draw with Quilmes highlights All Boys' propensity for parity. While a draw might seem like a sensible bet given their recent records, there is little value in it due to the unpredictable nature of the teams and the very short price for stalemate (2.70).
I do not think that the possibility of a deadlock diminishes the likelihood of goals. Talleres have conceded an average of 2.1 goals per game over their last eight matches, while All Boys have conceded 1.7 goals per game on average in their last seven away matches. This defensive frailty on both sides increases the chances of a high-scoring game, even if neither team emerges as the clear winner. Given the potential for both teams to score and the recent goal trends, betting on over 2.5 goals in this match remains the most promising option.
I will also be taking the 2.62 odds that Bet365 are giving me for both teams to find the net on Monday night.
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.50
Result: Win
Bet: BTTS Yes
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Win
Update: High-scoring draw gets us back on track with winners at 3.50 and 2.62 odds. No stress.
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2024-09-02 1500: Drita vs Ferizaj
Kosovo clash catches the eye
With just 4 points between them, it's ninth-placed Drita versus seventh-placed Ferizaj over in the Kosovo Superliga. It’s a mid-afternoon kick-off on Monday for this one.
It would be a strange result for Drita to lose this but at around 1/4 they are far too short to pick in the 1X2 market. They haven't made life easy for value-hunters, having lost 3 of their last 4 matches so we look elsewhere for a bet in this one.
It's worth noting that Ferizaj have kept a clean-sheet in 7 of their last 17 matches. Granted, that isn’t a stat you hear very often but it could be significant. More significant perhaps is the brand of football employed by this group of Drita players in their recent performances:
- They have scored only one goal or fewer in 8 of their last 9 matches
- They've kept a clean-sheet in 8 of their last 14 home matches
And if Drita are to justify their short price they may come out eager to maintain a clean-sheet once more, so it's no more than two goals for this one given the latest odds of 2.62 with William Hill.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds Available: 2.62
Result: Loss
Update: The first two days of September has been savage. In this game in Kosovo we wanted Under 2.5 Goals. It was 0-0 until 73 minutes when the first goal was scored. It remained 1-0 until 90mins was on the clock when Drita went 2-0 up. Still, the bet is winning as we count down the injury time. Then there is a 95th-minute penalty and our bet is lost in the dying seconds of the game! On to the next one...
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2024-09-02 0000: Emelec vs Orense
Outcome not obvious in Liga Pro clash; deadlock has potential
Over in Ecuador's Liga Pro, there is a trend developing with this particular fixture.
Be careful if you are going to pick a winner from the 1X2. In previous matches in this head-to-head 3 of the last 4 have ended in deadlock so there are arguments to be made for both sides. Building on the solid rearguard performances of both sides, a goalless stalemate is our pick but it's certainly not something to go mad about. The hosts have shared the spoils eight times in their last twenty matches at home. That's a 40% draw rate.
Both of these sides are statistically strong in defence. Creating something of a fortress at home, Emelec have conceded at just 5 goals during the last 10 matches on their own patch, while Orense have only conceded 0.8 goals per game on average in their last 13 away matches.
It's a midnight kick-off on Sunday night and probably not something we'll be staying up for! But with Bet365 offering 3.25 on the Under 1.5 Goals line, that is what we will be looking for when checking the results on Monday morning.
Bet: Under 1.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.25
Result: Loss
Update: Just checked the result of this one, first thing Monday morning. We wanted zero or one goal in the match for the 3.25 odds to win. When I checked the result just now I see an Own Goal in the first half and then no further goals until the 94th minute when they decided to score two more. Brutal. This is why I didn't stay up for it! After August's triumphs, we have had a particularly unlucky start to September - all three of our first bets could have been Cashed-Out for decent profit... but we don't cash out!
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2024-09-01 1500: Sheffield Utd vs Watford
Watford to throw the Kitchen sink at Bramall Lane
Sheffield United will host Watford at Bramall Lane in an unusual 3pm kick-off on Sunday. Both teams aim to maintain their unbeaten Championship records, with Sheffield United winning one and drawing two, while Watford has won all three of their games.
The match, refereed by Andrew Kitchen, will be a tough test for Watford as they seek their sixth consecutive victory. Last season, he was the referee for two of Watford’s away victories: 1-0 wins against Swansea City in October and Rotherham United in February. He also officiated Watford's 1-1 draw at Bristol City in January, so this could be a good omen for the visitors.
Watford, currently in second place, has shown strong form, winning their last five games and finding the net AT LEAST TWICE in all of them on their way to a 15-goal tally in those matches. If the odds were just a little more generous, they would be my pick for the win.
Sheffield United have lost 12 of their last 19 games while conceding AT LEAST TWICE in each of their last 13 matches as hosts.
But we are taking on Bet365's Over 3.5 Goals at 3.00 (2/1) as the standout value in this intriguing clash. Given that at least four goals have been scored in 12 of Sheffield United's last 13 home games and four of Watford's last five away matches, it would be a turn-up for the books if this game fails to deliver.
Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds Available: 3.00
Result: Loss
Update: When the first goal was scored in just 90 seconds, this one looked destined for success. However, despite the tension on the pitch, it remained a one-goal game come the final whistle.
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2024-09-01 1330: Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Chelsea to build on momentum
Chelsea head into their match against Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge this weekend with confidence and favorable conditions, making their odds of 1.65 with William Hill one of the standout bets for Sunday.
Fresh on the heels of Chelsea's thumping 6-2 defeat of Wolverhampton Wanderers in a thrilling Premier League match there are several key factors support their chances of victory.
Key performances included a hat-trick by Noni Madueke in the second half and a goal from Joao Felix on his return to the team. Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer also scored for Chelsea. The game featured end-to-end action in the first half, ending 2-2 before Chelsea took control. Madueke’s goals came from assists by Palmer, who was instrumental in the victory. This win marked Chelsea's first league victory under new manager Enzo Maresca.
Recent Form and Team News:
Under the management of Enzo Maresca, Chelsea has been gradually refining their style of play, focusing on a strong defense and a versatile attack. Joao Felix and Pedro Neto, who did not participate in Chelsea's midweek Europa Conference play-off, could be considered for starting positions. Wesley Fofana also missed that match and is expected to return to partner with Levi Colwill.
Romeo Lavia, absent due to a minor hamstring injury, did not travel to Switzerland and may be rested again, with the international break approaching. Noni Madueke, after his hat-trick against Wolves, received his first senior England call-up and aims to continue his strong form.
Nicolas Jackson remains the leading striker after scoring his first goal of the season at Molineux. Christopher Nkunku might be on the bench for this one.
Crystal Palace's Challenges:
Crystal Palace is facing a major setback ahead of this due to a center-back mini-crisis. New signing Chadi Riad, who joined from Barcelona for £14 million this summer, suffered a potential ligament injury just 10 minutes into their 4-0 Carabao Cup win over Norwich. Manager Oliver Glasner expressed concern, suggesting Riad is likely to miss the Chelsea clash. With this injury, Glasner now has only two fit center-backs, Chris Richards and Rob Holding, potentially forcing him to adapt his defensive lineup for the big game.
These are the types of issues that could create vulnerabilities in Palace's defense, giving Chelsea's offense opportunities to exploit. It is a dangerous combination.
Tactical Edge and Home Advantage:
Chelsea's tactical approach under Maresca has been evident in their recent performances, especially in their ability to control the game's tempo and maximize their home advantage. Stamford Bridge remains a stronghold for Chelsea, where they have often dominated possession and created numerous scoring opportunities. With Maresca's focus on high pressing and quick transitions, Chelsea is poised to capitalize on any defensive lapses by Crystal Palace.
Conclusion:
Chelsea are certainly the right favourites. Even if they make a slow start they have shown they can shake off the rust.
Given Chelsea's momentum and Crystal Palace's injury struggles, betting on Chelsea to win at odds of 1.65 with William Hill is a compelling option for us. The combination of Chelsea's tactical strength, home advantage, and Palace's defensive issues makes this a standout bet for those looking to profit from this weekend's fixtures.
The short price is not for everyone, but it is right up my street. Get the standout 1.65 currently being offered by our friends at William Hill.
Bet: 1X2 Chelsea
Odds Available: 1.65
Result: Loss
Update: When Chelsea went one-nil up mid-way through the first half this felt like the right bet. Palace pulled one back and so this goes down a near-miss to start the new month.
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