/a>
Jack Catterall will face unbeaten American Arnold Barboza Jr in a Final Eliminator for the WBO Super-Lightweight World Title at the Co-op Live arena, Manchester on Saturday night, 15 February 2025. Hot on the heels of last week's 2/1 upset pick when Derek Chisora out-hustled Otto Wallin over 12 twelve rounds, Johnny Wright is back with a deep-dive into this fight. Can he find some value for SharpBettors in the UK and across the pond?
If you're watching the fight live, try our interactive scorecard to see how you assess the fight compared to the judges.
INTRODUCTION
Well, The New Year is now a distant memory and we are into this glorious month of February, which is one of the best months of boxing I can recall in recent memory. And as a result of all this great boxing, I am shining up the Crystal Ball for the second time this stellar boxing month and breaking down the Catterall vs Barboza fight and seeing if the Crystal Ball can enlighten us at all. This is an intriguing match-up and is surely a closer fight than the odds suggest it is, although I did expect that Catterall would be the favorite, but I think the odds are just a bit too wide between the two fighters.
Regardless of my speculation on the odds, I am here to relay the reflections from the freshly shined Crystal Ball, explain the reasons for its reflections and ultimately let you know the winner of the fight and what it reflects as the smartest, most profitable and also safest way to bet it. Now, lets have some fun, look into the Crystal Ball and see what it reflects back to us.
JACK CATTERALL: THE PROS AND CONS
In this fight, neither fighter has yet tasted " true" defeat with Catterall's one loss being a decision that most people thought he won against Josh Taylor, during Josh Taylor's very impressive prime. Jack Catterall was able to handle a "prime" Josh Taylor, and deserved the decision in their first fight in which Catterall also knocked Josh Taylor down. That is no small feat as Josh Taylor was not only riding a streak of beating 5 undefeated, highly-rated fighters in a row, but he was the reigning undefeated, undisputed champion and considered one of the very top P4P fighters in boxing.
Taylor's closest fight during that time was his fight with Regis Prograis, and though he struggled a bit with Prograis, he won a close, competitive decision against the hard-hitting southpaw. Taylor had two more quality wins against undefeated fighters after that and then he had his first fight with Jack Catterall. It was a very close fight with much ebb and flow, but Catterall was more than ready for it and it is universally agreed upon that Catterall should have gotten the nod.
Catterall fought very well, as did Taylor, and Catterall even dropped Taylor in the 2nd half of the fight. The fight was a bit messy in the sense that both fighters had points deducted from them. Catterall had a point deducted for " holding" in the 10th round, and then one round later Taylor got a point deducted for " hitting after the bell". The fight was a competitive one, but one that all but the most ardent Taylor fans thought Catterall had won decisively.
Catterall has not had any issues defeating his formidable opposition, including winning a wide decision over Josh Taylor in a rematch in which Catterall rocked Taylor badly a few times.
The scorecards said differently though and Taylor was awarded an undeserved split decision victory. But, since that fight, Catterall has not had any issues defeating his formidable opposition, including winning a wide decision over Josh Taylor in a rematch in which Catterall rocked Taylor badly a few times in the 2nd half of the fight. And in addition to knocking down Regis Prograis twice in his last fight, and seeming to have Josh Taylor on the verge of being knocked down in the fight before that and in addition to knocking Taylor down in their first encounter, his punches seem to be a little more emphatic and thrown with bad intentions more often in his last few fights. It is clear that Jack Catterall is absolutely peaking right now as a fighter. And in this upcoming fight I see Catterall's present form and style of fighting being unlike anything Barboza has faced before, while I can not say the same for Catterall.
For Catterall, his biggest challenges will likely be Barboza's jab and volume. Barboza has a 72 inch reach and is 5 foot 10 inches tall, so he is 3 inches taller than Catterall, and has a 3 inch longer reach, as Catterall's reach is only 69" compared to Barboza's 72 inch reach.
That fact could make things interesting, although Catterall has been in a very similar situation before in two of his best performances as Josh Taylor was also 3 inches taller than Catterall, with the only difference being that Josh Taylor's reach is listed at 69 1/2 inches as compared to the 72 inch reach of Barboza. That means that Barboza will have a slightly longer reach than any of Catterall's high level, recent opposition. Barboza, while being 3 inches taller than Catterall, will also be the same height as Josh Taylor, so again, this is mostly familiar territory for Catterall, and territory that he handled very well in his fight with a prime Josh Taylor, and also in their rematch.
Catterall is a very awkward fighter and is a very tricky and difficult opponent, mainly due to his excellence at creating angles that benefit himself both offensively and defensively.
Catterall is a very awkward fighter and is a very tricky and difficult opponent, mainly due to his excellence at creating angles that benefit himself both offensively and defensively. Despite the fact that Barboza is a rather accurate puncher, Catterall is so good with his movement, defense and creating angles that he can be a very hard fighter for anybody to land flush punches on, and when previous opponents HAVE landed flush punches on Catterall, he has proven to have an excellent chin and extreme durability.
ARNOLD BARBOZA JR: THE PROS AND CONS
Barboza is also a very talented fighter, and he has had some impressive victories too. His victories have not been quite at the level of Catterall's opposition, but he certainly has not been fighting journeyman in the last few fights in his undefeated career, and his last victory was especially impressive as he beat Jose Carlos Ramirez by a unanimous decision.
That aforementioned 72 inch jab of Barboza's is a big key to victory for him, and if utilized properly it could theoretically serve Barboza very well in this match. Barboza and Catterall are both quite technically sound fighters, and Barboza's jab with a reach that is 2 1/2" longer than even Taylor's was could present a problem for Catterall throughout the fight. If used properly, that jab could keep Catterall at the best distance for Barboza to be able to dictate the pace, distance and to force Catterall to play into Barboza's strengths.
There is a flip side to Barboza's height and reach advantage too though, in the sense that none of his recent higher level opponents have been as short as Catterall, who is only 5'7". He has fought a couple of opponents that were 5'8", but Catterall will be his shortest opponent while also being his best opponent. That could present a problem for the taller Barboza too as he is not used to fighting someone as short as Catterall or who fights and moves like Catterall does. The fact is that even that one inch less in height than his shortest opponent, and Catterall's shorter reach can be quite troublesome to the taller fighter who is not used to it, especially if he fails to dictate the pace and distance the fight is fought at. That is especially true when fighting a shorter fighter as clever as Catterall and who also moves back and forth around the way he does in the ring.
In Barboza's favor is the fact that he throws punches at a higher volume than Catterall as that can impress judges because many judges these days award the rounds to fighters who exhibited ineffective aggression, rather than the more accurate punches of the fighters with a lower activity rate, and is something to certainly think about in handicapping this fight. But Catterall might be an exception to being a victim of that type of scoring because he is not only a very accurate puncher but his punches are always crisp, flush, hard and certainly noticeable.
That being the case, I'd expect the normally higher output of Barboza in this fight will likely NOT be rewarded soley for activity if he is missing his target and, in fact, it will possibly cause him to expend extra much needed energy as I expect many of Barboza's punches to be missing and not landing cleanly and that can tire a fighter quite a bit. With that being said, Barboza absolutely needs to be sure to utilize his reach advantage consistently and to also consistently use those punches to help himself stay at the distance that best serves him, and where he could take advantage of his reach and size advantage over Catterall. Just as importantly, Barboza would likely be served to concentrate on quality over quantity in regards to his punch output for this particular fight with someone as crafty as Catterall.
THE INTANGIBLES
There are a number of intangibles in this fight that need to be considered quite heavily, because the intangibles in this fight are possibly even MORE important than what everyone has seen in the ring from both these fighters throughout their careers. For one thing, Catterall is " peaking" right now, and has fought a more consistently higher level of opposition than Barboza. And in regards to one of Barboza's best advantages, Catterall has already faced a fighter the same height as Barboza but with a slightly shorter reach than Barboza when Catterall fought a prime Josh Taylor in their first fight.
In addition Josh Taylor was ALSO a southpaw as Barboza is too, and Taylor has certainly been a much better and higher level fighter than Barboza, as Barboza and Taylor are close to the same age, separated by only 11 months, with Taylor being 34 and Barboza being 33 yrs old respectively.
Jack Catterall has clearly proven that he has no issues at all with the southpaw style.
Now, to discuss THIS rather major intangible in even clearer terms and with this one being a big intangible in Catterall's favor ?---- Jack Catterall, who is a southpaw himself like Barbosa, has fought FOUR southpaw fighters in his last FIVE fights, including Josh Taylor TWO times and Regis Prograis. Jack Catterall has clearly proven that he has NO ISSUES at all with the southpaw style, even when fighting Josh Taylor in his prime and in their rematch, not to also mention Regis Prograis. One can conclude with certainty that on Jack Catterall's side of things we know that he will have no issues whatsoever with the Barboza being a southpaw.
In comparison, and in what I see as a HUGE red flag, Barboza has been impressive in ALL his recent fights since he stepped up his competition level and he has clearly won them all--- EXCEPT for his second to last fight against "southpaw" Sean McCombs. This was a fight in which the entire world watching thought Combs had won. But the most important take-away from this ONE fight with McCombs was that Barboza " truly" lost in reality, and that his opponent who deserved the victory was a SOUTHPAW.
Additionally, he is also the ONLY SOUTHPAW Barboza has EVER faced since he stepped up his competition and Barboza was clearly uncomfortable while fighting McCombs and he did not nearly fight his usual fight against McCombs and he truly should have lost, and rather widely too.
So to summarize this major variable to consider while handicapping this fight: when we compare the two fighters in regards to this being a southpaw vs.southpaw matchup, Catterall has faced FOUR highly rated southpaws in his last FIVE fights and beaten them all, including knocking the unbeaten, undisputed Super Lightweight champion Taylor down in their first fight which was for the title. He additionally rocked Taylor numerous times in their rematch and most recently twice knocked down another southpaw Regis Prograis, on his way to a wide decision victory.
It is a fact that Catterall's toughest opponents and best wins have all been against southpaws.
Now, in an almost glaring polar opposite comparison, Barboza has only fought one southpaw out of all his recent higher level wins but he clearly lost that one fight against that one southpaw Sean McCombs to all observers except the 3 judges and his mother.
In addition, that bad fight vs the southpaw McCombs was as recently as his second-to-last fight. So, aside from his technically undefeated record, and all his impressive wins against orthodox fighters, Barboza should have been given a wide decision loss to the only southpaw he has ever faced since he put the Super-Lightweights on notice. And to make matters even more complicated for Barboza, that southpaw he should have lost to is not nearly on Jack Catterall's level as a fighter either.
This is not a fact to take lightly or overlook when handicapping this fight as there are extreme differences in regard to how they have handled their southpaw opponents, and it is something that should certainly be considered when wondering how this fight might play out stylistically.
In yet another intangible that favors Jack Catterall, Arnold Barboza has also not ever fought in a 12 round fight in his entire career. ALL Barboza's fights have been 10 round fights, so Barboza has never fought into the championship rounds yet, in his entire career--- and that also presents a huge hurdle for Barboza to overcome, especially against a fighter like Catterall.
In comparison to Barboza in that regard, in four out of Catterall's last five fights Catterall has fought the full 12 rounds against top level opposition. And that is another intangible that needs to be heavily weighed in handicapping this fight.
In regards to that point, and in particular, it is important to note the very important fact that Jack Catterall is also a fighter who gets stronger as his fights go on, so the longer the fight goes, the better Catterall gets as it goes later into the fight. So, assuming this fight goes past 9-10 rounds, then having an increasingly effective, and sharper Jack Catterall coming on at his strongest in those later rounds as compared to Barboza having never even fought more than a 10 round fight in his entire career is theoretically a very bad nightmarish combination for Barboza.
That seems like it would be an incredibly difficult first-time test in the championship rounds for Barboza.
In considering the fact that Barboza is a fighter who has never fought into the 11th or 12 rounds in his life and adding onto that issue the fact that the last 3rd of the fight is when Catterall is usually at his very best and strongest, that seems like it would be an incredibly difficult "first time" test in the championship rounds for Barboza, who has never fought into the championship rounds in his entire career.
If we care to add another smaller intangible, I'd be remiss not to mention that many people don't seem to realize the fact that Arnold Barboza Jr. is actually two years older than Jack Catterall, as Barboza is 33 and Catterall is 31. That might not be a player in this fight at all, but it IS something worth noting as most people seem to think that Catterall is the much older fighter between the two of them, which is not the fact at all.
And for an encore, I will add one last intangible to strongly consider.
Barboza isn't a big puncher, so someone like Catterall will not have to be worried about Barboza's power, as Catterall has proven to have an excellent chin in his past fights. Catterall has taken the best that Josh Taylor and Regis Prograis had to offer and they both have a lot of power and, in fact, Prograis was even able to knock Catterall down in their fight, but Catterall handled it, got up, came back to win all the following rounds and then knocked Prograis down twice in the 9th round.
Those above facts are something else to keep very strongly in mind in this fight, because a fighter's power punches are always going to increase in number and always be more effective when the fighter throwing them does not have to be concerned about the power of his opponent. In situations where a fighter knows their opponent does not have power, they do not have to be as offensively cautious when deciding to unload as they would if their opponent was a strong puncher and they are aware that opponent might catch them with a bad intentioned knockout type punch if they got careless while going in for the kill. That caution is all but totally removed when a fighter is fighting an opponent with little power.
That translates into the fact that they will be much more likely to plant their feet and take more chances to score a knockdown or even get a knockout at different times in the fight. That fact always holds true in some variation, due to the fact that the fighter can be almost completely offensive minded at certain times in the fight, if they know they do not have to worry about the power of the punches being thrown back at them, and Catterall knows that is something he does not have to worry about, which is another big intangible in Catterall's favor.
- Boxing Moneylines and price movements (updated: 10:00, 12-Feb-2025)
THE FIGHT
I see this fight starting off like a chess match, with both fighters trying to get the opponent to fight " their" style fight. Barboza is a more active fighter in regards to volume than Catterall is, so I expect to see Barboza outlanding Catterall and throwing more punches at the fight's beginning. In fact I would not be surprised if the cards were just about even after 4-5 rounds, or even leaning slightly in Barboza's favor, but that is to be expected and will not last. I think Catterall is going to start taking over the fight in about the 5th round and gradually increasing and building upon his lead as the rounds go on. I expect Catterall to be moving back and forth, which he does effortlessly, and to not Barboza to cut off the ring the way Barboza is surely hoping to.
I think Catterall is going to gradually draw Barboza into his game plan and over the course of the first five rounds will gradually make Barboza start coming to him.
I think Catterall is going to gradually draw Barboza into his game plan and over the course of the first 5 rounds will gradually make Barboza start coming to him, rather than him chasing Barboza, as that is seemingly Barboza's best chance of victory as I see it. Barboza needs to stick to his game plan and stay on the outside at the perfect distance to utilize his reach advantage, but I do not expect that a fighter as clever as Catterall will make that easy for him and if Barboza does come onto Catterall, as I believe will eventually happen, I view that as a big mistake for Barboza.
As I see it, unless Barboza has a much higher ring IQ than he has previously shown, I expect him to gradually start coming in towards Catterall, as Catterall always seems to have a way of getting fighters to fight the way he wants them to. This is likely due to Catterall's style, offensive and defensive angles and awkwardness, which seems to take all his opponents out of their comfort zone.
I believe this fight will go into the later rounds with Barboza wearing down quite a bit as the fight goes on. And I believe the fight will become more visibly and increasingly one-sided starting from about round 5-6 and I think it will only get worse for Barboza from that point onward.
- Jack Catterall to WIN the fight, and
- Jack Catterall to KO/TKO Arnold Barboza in the later rounds of this fight.
#CRYSTALBALLBOXING BETTING
The CrystalBallBoxing betting suggestion is about making money, while betting smartly, so the suggested bet for this fight is to bet:
- "Jack Catterall to Win" at -250 ( 1.40 decimal odds; 2/5 fractional odds ).
- The ToteSportsbook is currently 1.40 in the MoneyLine ( 12:30, 11-Feb-2025 ).
When I consider that Jack Catterall has not had a stoppage in his last 7 fights and in over 5 years, then even though the Crystal Ball reflects that as a very possible result for this fight, I would not suggest to our SharpBetting readers to bet the Crystal Ball's " method of victory" prediction of Jack Catterall winning by KO/TKO as their bet, because it is too risky.
The "Catterall to win by KO/TKO" result is the Crystal Ball's prediction for the "Method Of Victory" ----but that doesn't mean it is the Crystal Ball's suggested bet for the average reader.
The predictions and the way to make the bets based on those predictions sometimes have to be a bit different if one is serious about their betting, the risk involved and their return-on-investment.
The "predictions themselves" and "the way to make the bets based on those predictions" sometimes have to be a bit different if one is serious about their betting, the risk involved and their ROI.
Everybody has their own way of doing things when it comes to their money and how they are going to bet their own money which I always strongly encourage, and I am just reporting who the Crystal Ball has reflected will win and it what manner it is reflected.
The Crystal Ball reflects betting "Jack Catterall To Win" at -250 as that covers ALL methods of victory, because anything can happen in boxing--- and of course, anything beyond that, whether it is additional or experimental is up to each individual bettor's preference.
- Odds for Catterall by KO/TKO/DQ: +500 ( 6.00 decimal odds; 5/1 fractional odds )
Bettors who like the chances of Catterall inside the distance can currently get 6.50 decimal odds with the ToteSports boxing prices [10:20 14-Feb-2025].
If one is looking for a higher ROI and they agree with the Crystal Ball's assessment of the fight, then they might consider betting NO MORE than 5% of their total investment on Jack Catterall By KO/TKO and the other 95% on the main bet as suggested above.
Or they might consider a two-fight parlay of " Jack Catterall" to win at -250 together with any other fight that they personally feel strongly about to increase the pay-out. It is completely up to the individual if they should decide they want to add onto or go beyond the #CrystalBallBoxing Bet suggestion.
That's a wrap! Good luck guys! Keep on rocking, making money, betting smartly, and remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose, my friends!
All the best, Johnny Wright (USA)
____________________
Johnny is the walking embodiment of a boxing purist. One of the finest boxing analysts you could ever wish to meet, his ability to pick the fights is, quite literally, second-to-none.
