In August 2024, David's Daily (Football Betting Previews) was added to the SharpBetting.co.uk website to share free betting advice to visitors of the site. The previews are based on the +EV betting methodology that has been tested and employed over the course of many thousands of bets while successfully creating long-term profits. There is no such thing as a get-rich-quick scheme in sports betting, but this article explains some of the mechanics that go into the betting guidance that is provided in the daily articles.
BACKGROUND
Having used the SharpBetting football system between the months of September and December, a busy time in the UK football season, I have thorough experience of how the process works. During that period, I kept a diary of my experiences so that I could document my feelings about using the system, as they happened, in real-time, unedited and transparent.
I wanted to make sure that future readers would have a detailed synopsis of how the system works in the real-world. Several people have used the system before we made it live to the public and their stories are well documented on our website, social media, and on our YouTube channel.
If you are reading this and are looking for an "easy" way to make money, then this is not for you. We have tested our process over many thousands of bets and we have first-hand experience of it working when betting with multiple different sportsbooks but our message to all visitors to our website is that betting must always be considered a recreational, fun activity. If you happen to walk away from a visit to the SharpBetting website with a little extra cash in your pocket then that is great, but please, gamble responsibly.
With that said, let's look at how David's Daily works.
THE SYSTEM
The football system we use to create the previews and advice in David's Daily was developed by a team of seasoned gamblers who have over 50 years of combined experience in building models and deploying them to win money on betting markets. At the forefront of these models is Chris Fawcett, co-founder of SharpBetting.co.uk.
His story from a teenage racing gambler being banned from high-street betting shops, to a pioneer during the early days of exchange betting, is a fascinating one. His unique experience in building models in an ever-evolving landscape is the foundation that makes these systems profitable for everyday use. He has taken his professional approaches, and made them accessible for all.
My first bet as live, with real money was a £5 stake on a team that I had never heard of. It lost. My first six bets lost in fact. But having limited myself to no more than a £10 stake when using the system at the start, I was prepared for some variance. My diary explains this concept in detail.
It is essential that anyone following the system sets a stake that they would consider recreational and within their means. If the system works for you, then you can gradually start to increase stakes, precisely the process I employed on my way to decent returns.
POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUE
The system works by identifying what is called "positive expected value" (+EV) in football betting markets.
The easiest way to understand this concept is to imagine that you were the operator of a casino, and your only product offering was a Roulette wheel and the only bet you offer is on Red or Black. The roulette wheel odds for hitting Red or Black are even-money (2.00), and a bettor will be expected to hit that number 18 times in every 37 spins. The (standard) roulette wheel has 18 numbers and a zero, making it 19 chances AGAINST the bettor versus the 18 chances FOR the bettor. The expected value is with the casino operator, they have +EV on their side.
When a bettor has one bet on Red or Black, they have a 48.65% chance of winning. The operator has the rest. With just one bet, the odds are very close to 50:50, but over multiple bets these odds make it literally impossible for the bettor to beat the casino. The best chance a bettor has of winning on roulette is if they only ever have ONE bet. For every bet that they have after one bet, the +EV moves further and further in favour of the operator.
Think of it this way; if a bettor was to have ten bets on Black, would it be possible that they won eight of them? Absolutely yes. If that bettor was to have 10,000 bets on Black, would it be possible that they won 8,000 times? Almost certainly not.
The +EV is there in every bet, but it only materially shows itself in the long-run. This is called the law of large numbers and it is essential to understand when looking at profitbale sports betting sytstems. The short-term results do not matter compared to the long-term. It is an essential part of the mindset required when looking for value in football betting.
THE METHODOLOGY
With full access to the SharpBetting football system, the articles written in David's Daily are based on the +EV betting opportunites that we have exposure to. In any one day, some bets will win, some will lose. Some days all bets will win, some days all bets will lose. The exact same patterns can occur for the casino operator, but they don't stop the wheel just because a bettor has won 12 times in a row.
Similarly, with our SharpBetting methodology, we do not stop placing the bets even when we are on an unlucky run as we know we need to reach the long-term for the +EV to make a material impact.
Of course, in the short-term, it is very possible that a bettor might have good fortune on their side and place just a handful of +EV football bets and they all win. This is great when it happens, but it should not be confused as evidence that the system is capable of miracles.
David's Daily has documented exactly that in the results during August 2024. During that month, fifty bets were placed. The ROI (return on investment) was over 40% for those bets. That is simply not a sustainable level, and while the +EV is in the bets selected - you can see them all here - the fact that the ROI was so high was down to good fortune.
VARIANCE & SIMULATIONS
To understand how variance works over the short- and long-term, try various "Bets Per Week" in the simulator here. It shows that the further and faster that a bettor gets into the long-term, the more likely the +EV will be on their side. The summary information below the graph of simulated annual results explains what could be won/lost with various Stake Amounts and Bets Per Week.
[This is a simulation based on the system results achieved previously and is not a garauntee of future success. Only bet with money that you can afford to lose.]
SHARPBETTING SELECTIONS
Want to know how to make SharpBetting selections using the new app? Click here if you are on X or here if you're not.
HOW DO SHARPBETTORS USE THE SYSTEM THEMSELVES?
The real-time SharpBetting system can be accessed on all devices and via Telegram. Click here for a System Overview.
The system went live during the Cheltenham Festival, on 12 March, and within a matter of days SharpBettors were reporting some impressive numbers.
- When we asked this member if we could use the message as a testimonial, this was the immediate reply: "Yeah no problem at all, although it’s closer to £600 now haha. If you’d prefer, I can send you a more thorough review of my first few days including a screenshot of my P/L from Paddy Power. Sent from my iPhone"
A TESTIMONIAL IN FULL (March 2025)
Wow, I was not expecting this!!
"Hi
Apologies for the delay but yesterday got even better so I wanted to provide a better update.
I write this on Sunday morning, having signed up on Wednesday last week, so having really 3.5 days of bets so far.
Firstly, I watched the video of how the system works and whilst I understand value, I was slightly sceptical but the results sounded too good not give it a go, especially for only £30 a month.
I started by putting £100 into 5 betting accounts, I picked the ones that showed the highest amount of available bets on the site. Most betting apps have a search function which makes it very quick and easy to get bets on, and the site filtering is so easy to use. I spend a maximum of 5minutes first thing in the morning, then at lunchtime and then evening putting the bets on.
I started with £20 singles and started pretty well. The bets are on really random games so I don’t track any of them, I just check my balance a few hours after and place the next bets. After some success on the first day, I added in a few doubles and trebles and this is where my balance started to grow significantly . I’ve included a screenshot of one accounts activity so far but of the 5 accounts, they’re all at least £100 up, and my total profit currently stands at around £1,000.
I’m not taking it for granted and I know there will be downs as well as ups but wow, I was not expecting this!!"
THE CO-FOUNDERS DISCUSS THE SYSTEM
Everyone should be able to win with the soft sportsbooks.
Before the new sytem went live, Chris Fawcett went on the record to say "everyone should be able to beat the soft sportsbooks". Click here to hear him explain to David Hipkin what he meant.
WHY DO WE USE ACCUMULATORS?
We often talk about "compounding the value". This is the process of placing multiple accumulator bets as well as straight singles. With the positive expected value in the individual selections, that value is compounded (enhanced) in the long-run.
RESULTS
Click here to see a full analysis of the bet history from David's Daily football previews.
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- Learn how David used the SharpBetting football system to win £8,000 in 100 hours of activity here.
- See how Leah went from novice to £7,500 profit using the system here.
- Watch Chris discuss winning over £100,000 from the football system in detail here.
- Join our 11,000 SharpBetting followers on X.
- Get in touch with David on X.
