In August 2024, David's Daily (Football Betting Previews) was added to the SharpBetting.co.uk website to share free betting advice to visitors of the site. The previews are based on the +EV betting methodology that has been tested and employed over the course of many thousands of bets while successfully creating long-term profits. There is no such thing as a get-rich-quick scheme in sports betting, but this article explains some of the mechanics that go into the betting guidance that is provided in the daily articles.
BACKGROUND
Having used the SharpBetting football system between the months of September and December, a busy time in the UK football season, I have thorough experience of how the process works. During that period, I kept a diary of my experiences so that I could document my feelings about using the system, as they happened, in real-time, unedited and transparent.
I wanted to make sure that future readers would have a detailed synopsis of how the system works in the real-world. Several people have used the system before we made it live to the public and their stories are well documented on our website, social media, and on our YouTube channel.
If you are reading this and are looking for an "easy" way to make money, then this is not for you. We have tested our process over many thousands of bets and we have first-hand experience of it working when betting with multiple different sportsbooks but our message to all visitors to our website is that betting must always be considered a recreational, fun activity. If you happen to walk away from a visit to the SharpBetting website with a little extra cash in your pocket then that is great, but please, gamble responsibly.
With that said, let's look at how David's Daily works.
THE SYSTEM
The football system we use to create the previews and advice in David's Daily was developed by a team of seasoned gamblers who have over 50 years of combined experience in building models and deploying them to win money on betting markets. At the forefront of these models is Chris Fawcett, co-founder of SharpBetting.co.uk.
His story from a teenage racing gambler being banned from high-street betting shops, to a pioneer during the early days of exchange betting, is a fascinating one. His unique experience in building models in an ever-evolving landscape is the foundation that makes these systems profitable for everyday use. He has taken his professional approaches, and made them accessible for all.
That is where I came in.
My first bet as live, with real money was a £5 stake on a team that I had never heard of. It lost. My first six bets lost in fact. But having limited myself to no more than a £10 stake when using the system at the start, I was prepared for some variance. My diary explains this concept in detail.
It is essential that anyone following the system sets a stake that they would consider recreational and within their means. If the system works for you, then you can gradually start to increase stakes, precisely the process I employed on my way to decent returns.
POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUE
The system works by identifying what is called "positive expected value" (+EV) in football betting markets.
The easiest way to understand this concept is to imagine that you were the operator of a casino, and your only product offering was a Roulette wheel and the only bet you offer is on Red or Black. The roulette wheel odds for hitting Red or Black are even-money (2.00), and a bettor will be expected to hit that number 18 times in every 37 spins. The (standard) roulette wheel has 18 numbers and a zero, making it 19 chances AGAINST the bettor versus the 18 chances FOR the bettor. The expected value is with the casino operator, they have +EV on their side.
When a bettor has one bet on Red or Black, they have a 48.65% chance of winning. The operator has the rest. With just one bet, the odds are very close to 50:50, but over multiple bets these odds make it literally impossible for the bettor to beat the casino. The best chance a bettor has of winning on roulette is if they only ever have ONE bet. For every bet that they have after one bet, the +EV moves further and further in favour of the operator.
Think of it this way; if a bettor was to have ten bets on Black, would it be possible that they won eight of them? Absolutely yes. If that bettor was to have 10,000 bets on Black, would it be possible that they won 8,000 times? Almost certainly not.
The +EV is there in every bet, but it only materially shows itself in the long-run. This is called the law of large numbers and it is essential to understand when looking at profitbale sports betting sytstems. The short-term results do not matter compared to the long-term. It is an essential part of the mindset required when looking for value in football betting.
THE METHODOLOGY
With full access to the SharpBetting football system, the articles written in David's Daily are based on the +EV betting opportunites that we have exposure to. In any one day, some bets will win, some will lose. Some days all bets will win, some days all bets will lose. The exact same patterns can occur for the casino operator, but they don't stop the wheel just because a bettor has won 12 times in a row.
Similarly, with our SharpBetting methodology, we do not stop placing the bets even when we are on an unlucky run as we know we need to reach the long-term for the +EV to make a material impact.
Of course, in the short-term, it is very possible that a bettor might have good fortune on their side and place just a handful of +EV football bets and they all win. This is great when it happens, but it should not be confused as evidence that the system is capable of miracles.
David's Daily has documented exactly that in the results during August 2024. During that month, fifty bets were placed. The ROI (return on investment) was over 40% for those bets. That is simply not a sustainable level, and while the +EV is in the bets selected - you can see them all here - the fact that the ROI was so high was down to good fortune.
Conversely, as I write this article, the September selections have been full of +EV but the actual results have been unfortunate; just 2 wins from 10 bets to start the month (see my point earlier about 8 roulette wins in ten bets). This is the difference between process (+VE) and outcome (%).
DAILY UPDATES
Every day (most days, at least) the David's Daily article will be updated with some of the best +EV bets available in the system. We try to pick top-tier football but sometimes that isn't possible. This is why you will see previews from games all across the globe, and throughout the day. Dusk 'til dawn, if there is some value worth highlighting, we will do it.
In the near future, the SharpBetting website will give visitors live access to the system. But for now, David's Daily is providing a glimpse into what will be offered.
VARIANCE & SIMULATIONS
To understand how variance works over the short- and long-term, try various "Bets Per Week" in the simulator here. It shows that the further and faster that a bettor gets into the long-term, the more likely the +EV will be on their side. The summary information below the graph of simulated annual results explains what could be won/lost with various Stake Amounts and Bets Per Week.
[This is a simulation based on the system results achieved previously and is not a garauntee of future success. Only bet with money that you can afford to lose.]
WHEN WILL THE SYSTEM BE LIVE FOR SHARPBETTORS?
Since David's Daily started publishing regular updates here in August 2024, we have received overwhelmingly positive feedback (with one or two naysayers*) and frequent requests from Sharp Bettors about when the system will be fully available.
We want to be sure that anyone who follows our football system is fully aware of how it works and has been exposed to it in as real-life a scenario as is possible. That is the reason for us providing the regular bets in the David's Daily previews. It is also why we regularly update our performance page.
After the first month (August) produced an ROI of +48%, September ended at -5% for the month. At time of posting this update [9-October-2024], the all-time ROI since inception is +7% after about 350 settled bets. The fact that September was a losing month is a perfect illustration of how the system is subject to variance; the swings in results that create volatility when looking at our system over a short time-frame.
If we made the system available without providing this context first, we do not think that would be in the best interest of visitors the the SharpBetting website.
The downside of this approach is that some followers of David's Daily football previews may be frustrated that they do not have access to all the sportsbooks we mention. Also, sometimes the prices quoted will be "gone" by the time a visitor has read the latest update.
(All prices quoted are available with the sportsbook mentioned at the time of publishing. Sometimes the prices will shorten, sometimes they drift, and sometimes they don't move at all.)
October marked the second full month of providing this content on the site. November has seen us get into the "long-term" of results and we can now look back at performance based on over 800 bets rather than the short-term variance of results in a single day.
We are now prioritising getting the system ready for SharpBetting.co.uk visitors to access with a simple email login for free. This will provide a live sample of the betting advice that has been used in David's Daily. It will show live prices, so there will be no concerns about prices not being available.
We will also provide a paid subscription where the more experienced user can upgrade their service and get even greater access to the best bets of the day.
When will these options be available? We are working around the clock to have this new feature live on the site before the end of the year at the latest. As soon as we have a more solid target we will make all of our followers on X, subscribers to our weekly newsletter and subscribers on our new YouTube channel aware of the go-live date.
( * = just one. )
RESULTS
Click here to see a full analysis of the bet history from David's Daily football previews.
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- Learn how David used the SharpBetting football system to win £8,000 in 100 hours of activity here.
- See how Leah went from novice to £7,500 profit using the system here.
- Watch Chris discuss winning over £100,000 from the football system in detail here.
- Join our 11,000 SharpBetting followers on X.
- Get in touch with David on X.
