A Glorious Twelfth; the best of a cracking undercard on 12 October 2024

By David Hipkin

Published 29th September 2024 15:06

Updated 11th October 2024 14:39

With barely enough time to catch our breath following the Joshua-Dubois fallout we are now back to Saudi Arabia for many purists’ fight-of-the-year between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol. The undercard, as we have become accustomed to in Riyadh’s Kingdom Arena, is a fascinating one.

The full card

Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivol (IBF, WBC, WBO and WBA light-heavyweight titles)
Chris Eubank Jr. vs. Kamil Szeremeta (a middleweight contest)
Fabio Wardley vs. Frazer Clarke (rematch for the British heavyweight title)
Jai Opetaia vs. Jack Massey (IBF cruiserweight title)
Ben Whittaker vs. Liam Cameron (a light-heavyweight contest)
Skye Nicolson vs. Raven Chapman (WBC women's featherweight title)
Mohammaed Alakel vs. Jesus Gonzalez (a lightweight contest)

WARDLEY VS CLARKE II

The rematch between Frazer Clarke and Fabio Wardley has potential to steal the show. Their first fight - that Sunday evening war back in March - was a simply breathtaking contest that ended in a draw. The draw is never a satisfactory result, but given what both men went through over those 36 minutes, neither of them deserved to pick up a loss.

I may be getting soft in my old age, but it was genuinely a contest that had me feeling “you don’t have to go there, you’ve done enough” on several occasions as both men dug deep into a well of resources that most of us mortals cannot even begin to imagine. Despite my concerns for their health, Wardley described the fight and the events around it as being part of “the best weekend of my life!” which epitomises how differently these boxers are made.

Fabio started that first fight with prominent scar tissue on the bridge of the nose. It didn’t take long for it to open up. Ahead of the first fight, I went in pretty hard with my view that even at odds-on, Wardley looked like a good bet to me. I thought his youth and natural boxing talent (albeit coming from a white-collar background) would be enough to counter the amateur pedigree and better fundamentals of Frazer Clarke.

To me, Clarke had failed to impress in a number of his fights and somehow seemed a little more shop-worn than his 32 years and 8-fight record would suggest. The standout bout that made it impossible for me to pick Clarke was his lacklustre affair with Dave Allen.

SharpBetting preview; March 2024:

Seeing his less-than-stellar performances against Allen, and before that against a middle-aged and out-of-shape Mariusz Wach, he is not exactly riding on a wave of confidence as he goes into this fight.

At the time of the fight, the pundits and promoters were repeatedly telling boxing fans this was a pick'em fight, a perfect 50:50. In fact, it was relatively one-sided in the betting, with Wardley a 4/9 favourite and Clarke a 2/1 underdog.

If you like what the promotion is telling you in that case, surely Clarke was the value bet? Well, for me, I went the other way and picked Wardley at 4/9 (1.44 decimal odds). In fact, in a fight like this, with the betting close enough and it being no surprise to go the distance, rather than Backing Wardley with a soft sportsbook, I LAYED Clarke on the exchange. When I look back at my preview for the first fight, my summary was dead-wrong, there’s no two ways about it. But my bet was a successful one since I LAYED Clarke as opposed to BACKING Wardley.

In close fights that are likely to go long, always cover the draw

I appreciate this sounds like some sort of brag about a winning bet, and maybe it is, but it is also an important point to make for any readers of the SharpBetting website. Once you have been bitten by a Draw result, you will always remember to cover it after your pocket has paid the penalty. I am hoping that if you read this, you will take this strategy on board before you learn it the hard way.

In close fights that are likely to go long, always cover the draw.
Instead of BACKING Boxer A, consider LAYING Boxer B.
This is something I do EVERY TIME I bet on boxing.
If you don’t use the exchanges, learn how to DUTCH two selections across the sportsbooks.

I have just pulled up some of my open positions for a few fights during the remainder of 2024. You’ll see as I am building up my positions as the markets form, in no instance do I have a position that will be negative in the event of a draw. Absolutely, the WIN is the more favourable result, but the draw is always part of my insurance policy in my betting strategy.

Using the exchanges to insure against draw damage

When I look back at the last year of my boxing betting, confidently picking Wardley at 4/9 is a standout memory for one that I got unequivocally wrong. But because I used the lay-strategy it was actually a winning bet on a wrong opinion. That is why it is such an important thing to consider.

Of course, you could look for the “Draw No Bet” market with your sportsbook, which means all bets are returned in the event of the Draw, but I would rather have it on my side in most cases.

Is there any value in the rematch odds?

I fully expect to hear that this is another pick’em fight, and this time around, I am totally onboard with that. It is incredibly hard to pick a winner with confidence, and when you get the chance to back odds-against about something that you believe to have a 50% chance of occurring, then that is reason enough to make the pick.

One can argue that the first fight in March was Clarke’s first real test at this level and it is possible that he can improve from there. He has shown that he can bring that amateur pedigree into the pro ranks, which was one of the big questions ahead of their fight.

Clarke’s got the better jab and that could really be a key factor

Throughout the first fight, I felt Wardley appeared to be a boxer who had a puncher’s chance through the 12 rounds, but that is never a strategy I give much stock when it comes to betting. There was never any doubt about his heart. But that nose injury also gives me some concern. He was cut in the second round last time, and one might argue he will prove to be a worthy favourite if he doesn't have to deal with the handicap of that injury for most of the fight.

In assessing this rematch, I think Matthew Macklin summarised it best during the 4th round of the fist fight when he said: “Clarke’s got the better jab and that could really be a key factor”

Meanwhile, the questions about Clarke’s stamina have also been answered. It is with no real confidence (is anyone confident about picking this one?) that I am going for Clarke to make more improvements than Wardley’s raw style facilitates.

If Wardley wins, I suspect it will be in dramatic fashion. I am a big fan of the natural power that he possesses. He is just a 6/4 shot (2.50) to win inside the distance. I don’t like that price. Wardley put Clarke down at the end of the fifth round. It was a legitimate knockdown but it was a curious one as Clarke didn’t seem genuinely hurt and he recovered almost immediately.

I think Clarke will have seen the success he had behind the jab and his gameplan will be to take this long and win a decision. That is a 9/2 shot (5.50) which has caught my eye. However, given Clarke is the underdog with all the books, I am happy to just take the win anytime price (11/8), especially given the risk of Wardley cutting.

Dutching Clarke (11/8) and the draw (16/1) is currently paying nearly 11/10 (decimal odds of 2.08). In what has widely been described as another genuine 50:50 fight, this has to be considered.

Whether or not I decide to go in a bit heavier as the fight approaches, remains to be seen. But for now, less than two weeks out, I will be having a small bet on Clarke and will, obviously, be covering the Draw again.

Selections:

Frazer Clarke to Win @ 2.37 (88% of stake)
The Draw @ 17.00 (12% of stake)

Given they both know what it took just to achieve parity with each other, I am expecting a more cagey fight this time and the only result that will surprise me is an early stoppage for either man.

How to Dutch Frazer Clarke + The Draw

For this explanation, I am going to assume a stake of 100 is used for this betting strategy as this translates perfectly to a percentage of any betting amount. We want to split our 100 stake across the odds for Clarke and the odds for the Draw that will return the SAME amount regardless of which happens.

Formula for Dutching:

To calculate the stake on each selection, you can use this formula:
Stake per Selection = (Total Stake / Selection Odds) ÷ (Sum of 1/Odds for all selections)
This ensures that each selection will yield the same profit, no matter which wins.

If I check the odds now, at the end of September less than two weeks from the fight, I see Wardley at 4/7 (1.57), the draw is 16/1 (17.00) and Clarke is 11/8 (2.37) with this particular book.

Latest UK odds [29 September 2024]

You can use the formula above or just use trial-and-error until you have the perfect stake split. Or you can go to the SharpBetting Dutching calculator here.

The results show that I would be advised to place 87.74% of my stake on Clarke and the rest (12.26%) on the Draw. Given the rounding, what I would do here is simply put 88 on Clarke, and the other 12 on the draw.

Dutching using the SharpBetting calculator

If my total stake was 10 for the fight, I would round up on the Fight Winner and have 9 on Clarke, and round down to 1 on the draw. In Dutching as advised here, we are essentially betting Aggregate Net Decimal Odds of 2.08, as shown on the calculator results. So I am taking a shade odds-against for my view that Wardley will not win; regardless of a Draw or a Clarke victory, I will get the same profit if I am right.

If you prefer the idea of Dutching Wardley (4/6 available) and the Draw (16/1) that will give you combined odds a little better than 2/1-on (1.52) according to the prices available across the market. Also note that with Dutching you can shop around the different sportsbooks to make sure you get the best prices for the selections you are looking to combine. For instance, if I could get 2.5 about Clarke with Bookmaker A and 21.0 about the draw with Bookmaker B, that would move my aggregate net odds up to 2.23 (instead of the 2.08 quoted above).

OPETAIA VS MASSEY

Despite his short price of 1/20 (1.05 decimal odds) Jai Opetaia is in a tough fight when he takes on Jack Massey as he attempts to defend his IBF cruiserweight title.

Massey has two defeats on his 24-fight resume but has yet to be stopped. When you consider his first defeat was against the heavy-handed Richard Riakporhe in 2019 and the second loss was up at heavyweight against Joseph Parker nearly two years ago, this is not a soft-touch for the big favourite Opetaia.

Massey picked himself up from a 10th round knockdown in that Riakporhe defeat and he has heart. Parker couldn’t put a dent in him so this is going to be a good test of Opetaia’s credentials as a power-puncher.

Massey’s chin appears very solid, as do his recuperative abilities, and he is a somewhat underrated fighter.

It will be a stretch to pick Massey for the upset here, but he is more than capable of putting up some resistance. Just as long as he can handle the southpaw stance of Opetaia, something Massey has not had to contend with so far in his career. Opetaia's power will be coming from "the other side" and Massey is not used to that. He could be worn-down and after warnings for excessive holding in the middle rounds, he might be there for the taking down the stretch.

Opetaia is a great talent and has plenty of power, but fighters in his stage of their careers are often packaged as bigger punchers than they are. We might have a case of that here. Jai is as short as 1.16 to win inside schedule. But Massey’s chin appears very solid, as do his recuperative abilities and he is also a solid, somewhat underrated, fighter. We think it will be a more competitive than expected fight, even if it doesn't go the distance. That 1/6 tag for Opetaia to win by KO/TKO/DQ is only for those who are very confident about their guy. That's not a price for us.

You can get 5/1 (6.00) about Opetaia winning a decision. But given you can get the same price for The Fight To Go The Distance, which will get the draw and the unlikely Massey decision (25/1) on our side.

Selection:

Fight To Go The Distance @ 5/1 (6.00)

If Massey shows he can handle the southpaw style in the first few rounds, then he can settle in and can take Opetaia the distance. For small stakes, that would be our prediction for this one.

It might be worth watching the first 2 or 3 rounds to assess Massey's positioning and comfort level, assuming that he can handle the southpaw style, before making a decision about taking a view in the fight.

IT COULD BE A LONG NIGHT

Some sportsbooks offer a range of options for Over/Under Total Rounds lines. This is sometimes a better option than simply taking the Will The Fight Go The Distance? Yes/No option. Saturday night feels like such an occasion.

If all five of these bouts last longer than 8.5 Rounds (i.e. 1:30 on the clock in Round 9), a 5-fold acca pays better than 10/1 odds (11.40 decimal) with this particular sportsbook. A fun bet for the evening would be to mix these lines and odds up into a range of multiples; doubles, trebles, etc. Check out the odds calculator to try various accumulators and multiples across the night's fights.

At least 8.5 rounds across the board at odds of 10/1

It may be a long-shot, but if there is one night of PPV boxing this year when ALL FIVE of the main fights could go the distance, Saturday 12th October might be the night. A five-fold acca pays better than 77/1 (78.65 in decimal odds) with the same book.