2024: The year in review

As things wind down for the year, test your boxing knowledge with our trivia games:

• The Mike Tyson boxing quiz
• The 50:50 Pick'em boxing quiz
• The Heavyweight Division boxing quiz
• All other boxing analysis and tools

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In this article, we look back at the year of SharpBetting boxing’s highs and lows. In March 2024, we started sharing boxing content on the site, and on average, we are now publishing a new article, preview, or feature once every two weeks. We tend to look at the fights that cross-over into general public interest rather than the hardcore, trade fights.  

There is no hard-and-fast rule to our coverage, we simply put out an article when we think there is sufficient interest in it.  Saul Alvarez, the current global “face of boxing” fought twice in 2024 but he didn't feature on this website. He’s currently on a run of five consecutive 12-round Unanimous Decisions and when the odds are always so short for that outcome, we have struggled to find much to talk about ahead of his fights.  

We have, however, found plenty of talking points elsewhere throughout the year, and we look back at them here. At the end of the article, we present a summary of the performance of the picks made throughout the year. 

The 2024 Schedule

Introduction; boxing’s forever lure

Almost everything about boxing is subjective. 

• Does Deontay Wilder have more power than George Foreman?  Maybe, maybe not.  
• Did Joe Calzaghe have better punch resistance, pound for pound, than Ray Mercer? Who really knows?   
• Did Artut Beterbiev do enough to get the nod over Dimitry Bivol?  Possibly, yes.  
• Should Tyson Fury have been stopped in that 9th round in May? Probably, but it’s fine that he was given every chance to continue.
• Would “prime” Tyson have enough to handle the elite heavyweights of the 1970s? Don’t get me started. 

It is a case-in-point that simply listing a few of these questions (off the top of my head) will be enough to have at least some readers frothing at the mouth at the mere suggestion that Tyson could compete in the 1970s. Similarly, the same number of readers will feel that he might have dominated in that era too. As is often the case, the truth is probably somewhere between the two.   

And we haven’t even touched on the subjective and always-controversial topic of how to score a boxing match:

• “Punch stats, anyone?”  
• “All he did was run all fight!”
• “He was the aggressor though!” 
• “The more bruised fighter must have lost!” 

The point is that if you sit down with your most loyal boxing buddy to talk shop, you may agree on many things about the fight game, but there will, without exception, be something you do not agree on.   The fact that this is such an integral part of the sport, that opinions can vary so much from one person to another, is one of the timeless  lures of boxing.  It also explains why so many people become experts for the big fights, the ones that transcend boxing. 

There were probably a few million grandmothers across the globe who were convinced that Iron Mike would knock out the YouTuber in Novemeber, and some 65,000,000 devices tuned into to find out.  Similarly, there will be millions of people across bars, gyms, bus-stops and  office water-coolers who are convinced they know what will happen on 21 December when Usyk and Fury square-off once more.

As 2024 draws to a close, fans can reflect on what has been a monumental year for the sport. It sounds strange to say it, but boxing seems to be a “growth sport” once more. 

Now let’s get into the SharpBetting-boxing highs and lows for 2024.

Boxing betting; confidence levels

At SharpBetting, we take social responsibility very seriously. We want visitors to make sharp betting decisions, but essentially, for the vast majority of bettors, it is a recreational activity. Something that enhances the enjoyment of a live sporting event. 

In our boxing content, we will never recommend what stake to bet, or even whether we think it is a one-star or five-start betting opportunity.  We do not want to dictate staking suggestions about boxing because, just like every other subjective element of the sport, the risk-appetite of one person may be entirely different from that of another.

Instead, what we do is imply a confidence level in the write-ups.  We want visitors to read the articles and draw their own conclusions about how confident the author is about any given prediction.  Sometimes we might pick a slight outsider in what really feels like a coin-toss of a fight - and there will be only limited confidence in that prediction.  Sometimes we go in pretty hard and nail our colours to the mast. Ultimately it is up to the reader to decide how much they agree or disagree with our takes.

Over the years that I have been betting, the most success that I have had has been in football and boxing.  Those who have followed my football betting experiences will know that it could not be more different from my betting on boxing.  

With the SharpBetting approach to football betting, there is no subjectivity whatsoever, there is no debate about which side of the market to take on or how much to stake given the range of odds available.  For my football betting, I simply follow the instructions and let the maths do the rest.

With football betting, it is possible to bet (if you feel inclined) 100s of times in a single day.  With boxing, that would take several years. For me, the  two sports are at the opposite and extreme ends of the spectrum when it comes to strategy and stake evaluation.  One is system-based, and one is opinion-based.  With the latter, the subject of stake size is an interesting one.

With the controversial nature of boxing, one has to be prudent with stakes.

With the controversial nature of boxing, one has to be prudent with stakes. There are countless reasons why a good bet can go down the tube. Curious scorecards and unpredictable decisions made by officials can make all the good work done in assessing a fight fruitless. There used to be a time when these bad beats were rare, but they have always been a factor in boxing. Now, I firmly believe that the sport is a brilliant sport to bet on, but it has to be done with a sensible cap on stakes.  

What makes a big bet?

In the interest of transparency, as of 2024, a maximum stake bet for me, personally, is around £500. While I will sometimes share my stakes publicly, I will only ever do this on my personal account, and never on the official SharpBetting accounts.

My staking decisions will vary according to the odds (favourite versus underdog) and the market (Fight Winner versus Method Of Victory), but I rarely stake more than a few hundred on an event I feel confident about.  

Occasionally there is a unicorn betting event in which I will double that maximum exposure, but these days it is incredibly rare for me to go into four-figure territory. More often, a “big” bet for me is the low three-figures, and I will often have even less, sometimes just a few quid for an interest in a contest.

In this review, I'll outline some of the analysis and decision-making (right or wrong) that has gone into the content that has been published throughout the year.

March 2024

Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou 

AJ vs Ngannou was the first preview we put out on the site, just a few weeks after our soft-launch.  We went in pretty hard on this one, feeling that the betting lines were entirely out of whack based on the fact that Ngannou's boxing credentials had been hugely inflated due to his better-than-expected performance against a complacent Tyson Fury a few months earlier. 

Ngannou should be nearer 8/1 than 3/1, and if Fury had turned up in shape in October, Joshua would surely be 1/10 for this one. Joshua should get this done and look good doing so.

Sure, Joshua was a short-price favourite at around 1/3 (1.30 decimal, -300 US odds) but we went out on a limb and said we thought he should have been more like 1/10 for this one.

Zhilei Zhang vs Joseph Parker 

The chief support that night was an intriguing contest between highly-rated 40-year-old Zhilei Zhang and often-overoloked Joseph Parker.  Parker was a generously priced 3/1 outsider in the opening betting lines and we thought that was far too generous. 

I think the market has got this one wrong and would have Parker no bigger than 6/4. Parker by UD.

When we published the preview,  Parker was around 2/1 against. We suggested a double of Joshua (1.30) and Parker (3.00) would be a healthy side-bet on this card (decimal odds of 3.90).

Fabio Wardley vs Frazer Clarke

A few weeks later there was a sensational contest for the British and Commonwealth heavyweight titles. In what was a spectacularly wrong prediction, at a short price, it would turn out to be somewhat prescient given what would happen in their rematch a few months later. 

I am not expecting to see Wardley in any real trouble in this fight and he might just do something spectacular. I’m fairly confident that taking the Wardley odds of 4/9 to win the fight by any method is the smart play here.

This was a turning point for the SharpBetting boxing previews. From this point on, we advised readers to consider the draw in all contests. Rather than simply Backing Boxer A, to instead LAY Boxer B or to "Dutch" Boxer A with the Draw.  You will take a little of the value away from the payout, but it is always something that should be considered when betting on outright markets in boxing. 

May 2024

Vasiliy Lomachenko vs George Kambosos Jr

In May, Johnny Wright entered the fray. Johnny is one of the most impressive boxing analysts I have come across in all my time following the sport. I’ve worked for several boxing websites, I’ve been a boxing odds-complier for a UK betting company, I’ve met trainers at some of London’s most prestigious boxing gyms and no one has impressed me more than Johnny.

He will not thank me for sharing this, but when the likes of Antonio Tarver and Emanuel Steward endorse someone, you listen.  

--- Johnny knows boxing! --- [Emmanuel Steward]

Vasiliy Lomachenko took on George Kambosos Jr for the IBF Lightweight title in Perth, Australia early in May. Johnny felt strongly about this one and offered a couple of winning bets with excellent payouts:  Lomachenko by stoppage at 3.40 decimal odds supported by the 5.00 odds for a Rounds 7-12 stoppage for Loma.

I expect Loma to gradually take over the fight, and stop Kambosos in the second half of the fight with either a body shot, or with throwing multiple punches with Kambosos unable to answer him.

The fight was waved off in the 11th round.  Lomachenko became the first man to finish Kambosos, dropping him twice with body shots. 

Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk

The heavyweight unification fight between Fury and Usyk in May was everything that boxing should be: an absolute classic, huge talking points, weigh-in surprises, and strong opinions covering all five of the possible outcomes.  Add to that list, some huge movements in the betting lines and it really doesn't get much better than this. 

If the opening prices which had Usyk as the outsider at around 2/1 (3.00) were still available I would have no hesitation pulling the trigger and backing him to score the upset win.

It was a hard fight to call. We published our preview a month before the fight (Published 14th April 2024 15:33) and ultimately went with the fence-sitting draw at odds of 18/1 (19.00 decimal) with the intention to close out the bet, locking in some profit by the time the fight got into the second half.

The draw is 18/1 now; I can see it being less than 10/1 by the time we get into the second half of the bout.

You can learn about locking in profits, "Cashing Out" bets using our Green-Up Trading Calculator.  We like this strategy as a side-bet when assessing close-betting fights that are likely to go to the cards. 

Fight week was fascinating, and after the weigh-in I went on the record to pick Usyk by stoppage in the final third of the contest. I was wrong, but for those few seconds in The 9th Round when Fury was deposited in every corner of the ring, it felt great. 

Josh Taylor vs Jack Catterall 2

Just a week later we were spoiled with another brilliant matchup, the long overdue rematch between Josh Taylor and Jack Catterall. 

I expect the fight to go the distance, possibly another Split or Majority decision, but with the difference being that this time they will score the fight in Catterall's favour.

For this one, we went strong on it again, taking the 15/8 odds available for Catterall to exact revenge with a points decision. One judge scored it 116-113 and the other two cards were both 117-111, giving Catteral a comfortable-looking Unanimous Decision win. 

June 2024

The 5 vs 5 Card 

June 1st was meant to be the date we got to see Beterbiev vs Bivol which would be postponed until October. Instead though, we were spoilt with an exciting new format with the UK's two leading promoters going head-to-head in a Five Versus Five card of very evenly matched contests. 

I see a shootout between Zhilei Zhang and Deontay Wilder and I’m happy to take either man to win in the first six rounds at 5/4 (2.25 decimal odds).

The main event was an intriguing clash-of-styles between two of the heavyweight division's top men, both of whom were approaching, or were the wrong side of, 40. The fight didn't materialise as many had hoped but when Zhang rocked Wilder with a perfectly timed right hand in Round 5 to secure the TKO we got the bet home  - James Walton was on the money with that one.

It was the highlight of the evening for us from a betting point of view.  We had also taken Craig Richards to have too many smarts for Willy Hutchinson, but the underdog turned out to be a comfortable winner over a very rusty "Spider" Richards. 

We also took Filip Hrgovic to have too much raw power for the the June version of Daniel Dubois, who had failed to show evidence that he had the head-movement to avoid trouble in this one. Instead, Dubois upset the odds and produced a performance that would be the platform for even bigger things ahead. 

Chris Billam-Smith vs Richard Riakpohre

When Chris Billam-Smith made a second defence of his WBO Cruiserweight against Richard Riakpohre at Selhurst Park on 15th June we were on the wrong side of the outcome, having expected the Riakpohre uppercut to be the deciding factor.  

The Londoner had a lot of success with the uppercut in their first bout and he could put on a bit of a home-coming show on Saturday night.

The homecoming did not come to fruition, and Billam-Smith looked very comfortable on his way to a  unanimous decision. We had taken the Riakpohre stoppage win at 2.80 decimal odds and an early night - winning within six rounds - at the big price of 7.00.  Both bets lost. 

September 2024

Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois

We got back on the horse in dramatic fashion for a huge night of boxing at a packed Wembley Stadium on 21 September. 

If Dubois is on his A-game and fights the best fight of his life I think he has a good chance of knocking AJ out.

We did a huge analysis of this fight and ultimately came to the conclusion that there was value in backing the big-price underdog, Daniel Dubois, at odds of 4.25 (+325) as well and the fight to go the distance at 4.30 decimal odds (+330).  in this preview, we suggest a split-stake strategy of 50% of the total bet on each of these bets.

The ideal outcome would have been Dubois winning a decision, as both bets would win. But given the big prices, we felt a large part of the likely outcomes were covered in this strategy.

It was also a brilliant opportunity to look for evidence in the buildup to the contest that the Dubois upset was worth topping up.  

The first sign came when AJ asked the crowd of thousands to pray for him.  As I wrote on X after the weigh-in, it was the "first time I’ve heard a -500 favourite ask a crowd of thousands to pray for him".   It might have been nothing, but for me, it was reason enough to increase my bet against Joshua.

Invariably when there is a crossover boxing event such as a Joshua fight, I am inundated with messages requesting a prediction. For those who were not inclined to read the 14,000-word SharpBetting deep-dive analysis about how to extract the best value from the fight, I simply summarised the prediction with these 8 words:

I will always look for signs that a fighter seems, at face value from my position as an armchair-psychologist, confident or nervous in the final moments before the opening bell.  At Wembley Stadium that night, in Joshua I saw a look that was eerily reminiscent of his appearance before he was shocked by Andy Ruiz Jr at Madison Square Garden. It was at this point that I took some more of the 4.80 odds about Dubois.

Wembley Stadium Undercard 

The undercard got off to a great start. Having seen something in Josh Padley at the weigh-in that I liked, I had had (literally) a few quid on him to score the upset at 13/1. It paid for the PPV and a Deliveroo-upgrade. 

The rest of the undercard was a decent sequence of results, although we had not gone in particularly aggressively with these predictions.  We had taken Anthony Cacace to beat Josh Warrington inside the distance at 7/4 - he won on points and never really looked like hurting his man. That was the only loss of the night.  

The Cacace win was one part of a double, with Joshua Buatsi to beat Willy Hutchinson. Buatsi and Cacace were both 4/9 shots in their fights, so the double paid 2.09 in decimal odds (almost 11/10) and it never really looked in any danger. 

If you can find the best-prices you can put these two in a 4/5 double (1.81), but at the short odds-on for both of them you'll need to be pretty confident.

Finding a couple more short-priced bets that we liked the look of, and putting them in a double that paid 4/5, we also added these to the preview:

• Josh Kelly vs Ishmael Davis - fight to go the distance @ 4/11 (1.36)
• Tyler Denny vs Hamzah Sheeraz - Sheeraz inside the distance @ 1/3 (1.33)

October 2024

Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol

A few weeks after the Wembley Stadium drama, we were treated to one of the most highly anticipated boxing matches in recent memory. The undefeated Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol were fighting for  the IBF, WBC, WBO and WBA light-heavyweight titles on 12 October 2024 at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Beterbiev was injured earlier in the year causing the bout to be rescheduled for this October date. Over the next few months, the betting had flip-flopped and having started as a slight outsider, Bivol was a slight favorite by the time of fight week. 

This was another fight in which we had gone in pretty strong with our analysis. The conclusion was that Bivol was the value bet at US odds of -130 (1.77 decimal odds). We also liked the idea of supporting that with a smaller-stake side-bet for Bivol to win inside the distance at US odds of +800 (9.00 decimal odds). This was the staking advice ahead of the fight:

• Step 1: Put 90% of your stake on Dmitry Bivol To Win at odds of -130

• Step 2: Put 10% of your stake on Dmitry Bivol to win by KO/TKO/DQ at odds of +800

It really was a tremendous fight between two top-tier operators.  I had Bivol winning that 116-112 and was surprised to see the decision go against him.  The betting market was also surprised. The Betfair exchange was offering odds of around 3/1 against Beterbiev after the final bell, prior to the scores being announced. 

This one stung. The months of anticipation coupled with a decent-size stake and a decision that I wholeheartedly disagreed with.  Each to their own, but it was "lousy", to quote Barry McGuigan.  

It served as a reminder to put sensible limits on stakes, no matter how confident we feel when analysing boxing. 

The Riyadh Undercard 

To rub salt into the wound, the rest of the card was pretty terrible in terms of our selections. First off we had the rematch of that epic Wardley-Clarke fight from earlier in the year.  I could not have been more wrong about this one. 

Given they both know what it took just to achieve parity with each other, I am expecting a more cagey fight this time and the only result that will surprise me is an early stoppage for either man.

While certainly not going overboard on these supporting contests, the advice in this one had been to "Dutch" Clarke and the Draw simply on the basis that it offered better than even-money on a contest that was widely considered as a genuine 50:50 fight. 

If Massey shows he can handle the southpaw style in the first few rounds, then he can settle in and can take Opetaia the distance. For small stakes, that would be our prediction for this one.

Next up we took the big price of 5/1 against the Jai Opetaia (a 1/20 favourite) versus Jack Massey fight to go to the cards. The price was backed in before the first bell, but Massey, while game and beyond brave, never looked likely to last the stretch. 

Jack Catterall vs Regis Prograis 

We thought there was a tremendous piece of match-making later in October when Jack Catterall fought the  explosive and aggressive Regis Prograis. It what was a very rare suggestion for our previews, we recommended backing Catteral to win a Unanimous Decision in the Exact Method Of Victory Market.  It was an unusual selection, as it was odds-on. We put the preview out when the best-price was 8/11 (1.72 decimal). 

The Exact Method of Victory market has subsequently been updated and the Jack Catterall price for a Unanimous Decision has drifted out to even-money. Having picked that as the bet at 8/11 (1.72), we would top that position up again at evens.

Just 24 hours later the market had drifted out to even-money (2.00) and we made the rare decision to recommend going in again on this bet. 

November 2024

Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson

Anyone who follows me on social media will know that since this event was announced in March, I have been calling it the best Unicorn betting event since the legendary "once in a lifetime" Mayweather-McGregor betting lines. Tyson had, almost literally, no chance. 

They are friends and business partners. Their “fight” will be nothing more than a public workout between two gym buddies. There will be no more jeopardy than you will see if you go down to your local Virgin Active boxercise class. Mike Tyson is in no shape to be fighting a professional boxer thirty years his junior. He could barely do it twenty years ago. The 2/1 odds against Tyson are offensively short and I would not back him to win at 10/1, let alone 2/1.

It was incredible but during "fight week", for want of a better phrase, the Tyson price frequently moved close to the 3.00 range.  We made it a tremendous lay bet at anything under 4.00 and 3.20 was readily getting matched on the exchange. 

We also picked out the 11/4 odds (3.75 decimal, +275 US odds)  for the Fight To Go The Distance (Yes) market.  We were unequivocal about this one, suggesting that the odds-compilers who had come up with that price might not have known the rules of the bout. 

With the large gloves and the 8 rounds x 2 minutes format, plus the "exhibition-masquerading-as-a-sanctioned-fight" element of this event, this price looks like it is based on a different set of rules and it will be unlikely to last long.

There was plenty of debate before the contest about whether or not it would be a real fight. That debate has continued after the event. It was really a moot point. It made no difference to the betting opportunity that it presented to us. If the fight was real (it wasn't) there is no way Tyson could win and if the fight was contrived (it was), there was almost no way he would win.  Here, I explained my reasoning for being so confident about this once-a-decade betting line:

While the sportsbooks had Tyson at around 2/1, I had him bigger than 10/1.  The fight to go the distance was an 11/4 shot. I had it at 5/1-on.  

Enough of that.

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano 2 

Aside from the paychecks for Paul and Tyson, the main purpose of the Netflix boxing show was to promote the chief support, which was a rematch of the cracking fight between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano (in 2022). 

This one did not disappoint. 

We feel that Serrano should be favoured. She is the "house fighter" here, one of Jake Paul's biggest allies. A Serrano win will also set up a huge trilogy fight down the line.

It was a grueling, tough fight, at times hard to watch. When we published the preview on 24th October we had picked Sarrano to win at odds of 11/8 and we liked the idea of supporting that with a small bet on Serrano to win inside the distance at odds of 13/2.  

During fight week there was some extraordinary movements in the betting lines, with Serrano seeing so much support she was as short as 2/1-on at times. 

The fight went to the cards again. Most observers were surprised to see Katie Taylor have her hand raised. I felt Serrano had nicked it. The bet lost, it was a somewhat controversial decision again, but we had been on the right side of the market, for what it's worth. 

I thought Serrano somehow nicked it 95-94. No complaints with the decision. Crazy fight again.

Sunny Edwards vs Galal Yafai 

November ended with a curious contest for the vacant WBC Interim World Flyweight title. A close betting line again for this one, opinions were divided but it seemed like the sharp money was supporting Edwards given the prices. It had a crossroads feel to it, and we felt that Sunny Edwards would have the smarts to keep out of harm's way and outpoint Galal Yafai. The fight was a 2/9 shot to go the full 12 rounds and while we would never back that, I expect it got plenty of support. 

The Betfair exchange was offering a price of 1.87 for Edwards to win when we made the call 48-hours before the fight. In the minutes before the opening bell, Edwards had been backed into the low 1.7x area.  But as soon as the contest started, his price went through the roof.  Edwards didn't want to be there. 

He looked uncomfortable, lost every round, and was stopped in the sixth. He immediately announced his retirement from the sport. 

December 2024

Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury 2

The year ended on an absolute high for the SharpBetting boxing crew. Just like in May, the fight between Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury was a beehive of activity and opinions. While it didn't quite crossover into the mainstream like their first fight, the anticipation for this one, among boxing fans, was palpable. 

Stop worrying, relax, and that’s my final thing on it… forget everything you’re worried about. It’s an 80:20 fight. Usyk’s going to win - comfortably.

You can read our full preview of the fight here.  Across the Kingdom Arena card we had the following selections:

• Usyk to win the fight (W)
• Usyk to win the fight inside the distance (L)
• A "David's Daily Usyk Special" market exclusive to Tote Sport (L)
• Usyk NOT to be knocked down (W)
• 4-fold accumulator including the undercard (W)

2024 in Summary

The graph here shows the 2024 boxing profit from the SharpBetting boxing content in 2024 using an Average Stake of (£) 25 per bet.  The results shown are from following the  Sharp Stakes method as well as a simple flat-stake approach. There have been around 40 selections, with various confidence levels, picked this year.

(It is important to note that the actual stakes employed vary considerably based on confidence levels of the individual.) 

Some of these bets have been described as fun, small-stake bets, some of them have been written up with far more conviction.  For the sake of this data, all picks are treated equally, but it is up to the reader to determine their own confidence levels and staking plans. 

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See all of our big-time boxing analysis here.

Try our interactive live boxing scorecard here.

Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson; 15 November 2024.  Why so serious?

Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury; 18 May 2024. The 9th Round.